2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Torie]

After seeing an absurdly illegal CD map done by a gunslinger on RRH, I posted the below:

Once the final census numbers are available, given that the law prohibits a map favoring one party over the other, my suggestion is to turn off the partisan numbers on the DRA, and then draw the cleanest map possible that minimizes chops and erosity while complying with the VRA (e.g., no minority packing), and when finished, save that map, duplicate it, and then turn on the partisan button to see with the partisan numbers, if you can Pub it up, while being able to defend it under the state law (e.g., there are two reasonable options in places, that are close to being in equipoise based on the non partisan merits, and you just happened to pick the “wrong” one from a partisan perspective).

In the real world, when the lawsuit comes, the map drawers will be asked if they were aware of the partisan splits when they drew the map in the sense of having the partisan numbers in the DRA turned on. The “correct” answer will be no, the partisan button was turned off. If the answer is “yes” rather than “no,” the Pub mappers will be in some trouble right out of the box, and their credibility put into question. Each state has its own rules, and FL is not TX, where anything goes when it comes to state law. Just a suggestion.

Florida law:

“(a) No apportionment plan or individual district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent; and districts shall not be drawn with the intent or result of denying or abridging the equal opportunity of racial or language minorities to participate in the political process or to diminish their ability to elect representatives of their choice; and districts shall consist of contiguous territory.
(b) Unless compliance with the standards in this subsection conflicts with the standards in subsection 1(a) or with federal law, districts shall be as nearly equal in population as is practicable; districts shall be compact; and districts shall, where feasible, utilize existing political and geographical boundaries.”

Notice above that the partisan prong just uses the words “intent” while the minority prong uses “intent or result.” Notice further that “no partisan intent” trumps hewing to county and municipal lines and compactness. Keep that partisan button off! Your honor, I was just drawing a clean map, and had no idea what the partisan effect was. I am shocked, shocked I tell you, that it gave the Pubs everything not locked down by the VRA. That appears to be the result, but that was not my intent!

[Torie]

I posted the above because that nice looking 20-9 map above clearly favors the Pub party. Was that the intent, or just an accident? Was it drawn with the partisan button on? If so, why? Florida does not equal Texas!

[Torie]

Has anyone taken on the chore of drawing a FL CD Pubmander that intelligently balances the risks and rewards associated with the legal constraints to which the map is subject (assuming a Pub friendly but not hackish, FL Supreme Court)? Is so, I would appreciate being directed to it.

[Torie]

Has anyone taken on the chore of drawing a FL CD Pubmander that intelligently balances the risks and rewards associated with the legal constraints to which the map is subject (assuming a Pub friendly but not hackish, FL Supreme Court)? Is so, I would appreciate being directed to it.

Well, that depends a lot on how hackish the court is. To take S019's example, looking at FL-13, a non-hackish court wouldn't send FL-14 into Pinellas at all — there's precedent directly on point saying that violates the Fair Districts Amendment. A slightly more hackish court would allow it, but might require FL-13 to stay within Pinellas instead of extending into Pasco or west Hillsborough; an even more hackish court would allow that kind of solution.

In general, I would assume a Pub friendly and extremely hackish court — DeSantis has stacked it that way for a reason — but that the Legislature may not go for maximal R gain because of other factors (like keeping Bilirakis's Pinellas residence in FL-12, which limits how aggressively you can draw FL-13).

I think folks in general assume state high courts are more hackish than they in fact are. Sure, partisan courts (which I deplore), will go in the direction of their preferred  party when there are reasonable choices to make and they pick the ones that help their team, like the PA Dem friendly court did in two instances as to CD lines in the last cycle, but it is rare I think that they go hog wild.

[Torie]

Here is the actual law that I thought I would put up that constrains a Pubmander.

[Torie]

Here is the actual law that I thought I would put up that constrains a Pubmander.

The issue is that these types of laws are pretty vague. What is “compact” at what point does a given map “favor” one political party over another. The GOP controlled state SC prolly has a pretty loose interpretation of this law and therefore it’s more idealistic. Now if there was a specific thing that said the district borders must be at most % of the area or only X counties can be split, then we’d been having a different discussion. But things that say general “muh compact” “muh fair” won’t prevent anything

As I have said many times before, I have more faith in the courts than that, even partisan courts. I think that for an obviously partisan reason, a map makes additional county chops, or significant city chops, or makes a map significantly more erose, is very vulnerable to being struck down under the Florida law. For example, if FL-14 is going to cross the bay , it had better take in the entirety of St. Petersburg, and eliminate a county chop elsewhere or greatly mitigate it, or make some CD materially more compact. A line change that benefits the Pubs, while also adding some other negative factor as described above, has no talking points to go to the court with. The Pub case in such event has no clothes, and the court is quite unlikely to ignore that fact the way the emperor's subjects did when the he was in his birthday suit. I am not changing my mind of this one. Color me obtuse or stubborn if you must. I won't mind too much.


That said, I Pubbed up Tim's TX-13 by a grand total of 30 basis points. My talking point? Keep the cities united! I lost a muni chop, and even though the erosity is a tad greater, that is a damn good talking point - in fact it should be a winner! Aren't I wonderful?  

A masochist can go through Tim's map with a fine tooth comb, and try to find other ways to Pub it up, that have similar talking points available. But it won't be FL-13. I tried and it was a fail. No talking points to do something more major were there to be had, unless of course I just lack the perspicacity to discern it, but I don't think so in this case. If I had found an avenue, I would have shared it. Of course!

[Torie]

Here is the actual law that I thought I would put up that constrains a Pubmander.

The issue is that these types of laws are pretty vague. What is “compact” at what point does a given map “favor” one political party over another. The GOP controlled state SC prolly has a pretty loose interpretation of this law and therefore it’s more idealistic. Now if there was a specific thing that said the district borders must be at most % of the area or only X counties can be split, then we’d been having a different discussion. But things that say general “muh compact” “muh fair” won’t prevent anything

As I have said many times before, I have more faith in the courts than that, even partisan courts. I think that for an obviously partisan reason, a map makes additional county chops, or significant city chops, or makes a map significantly more erose, is very vulnerable to being struck down under the Florida law. For example, if FL-14 is going to cross the bay , it had better take in the entirety of St. Petersburg, and eliminate a county chop elsewhere or greatly mitigate it, or make some CD materially more compact. A line change that benefits the Pubs, while also adding some other negative factor as described above, has no talking points to go to the court with. The Pub case in such event has no clothes, and the court is quite unlikely to ignore that fact the way the emperor's subjects did when the he was in his birthday suit. I am not changing my mind of this one. Color me obtuse or stubborn if you must. I won't mind too much.


That said, I Pubbed up Tim's TX-13 by a grand total of 30 basis points. My talking point? Keep the cities united! I lost a muni chop, and even though the erosity is a tad greater, that is a damn good talking point - in fact it should be a winner! Aren't I wonderful?  

A masochist can go through Tim's map with a fine tooth comb, and try to find other ways to Pub it up, that have similar talking points available. But it won't be FL-13. I tried and it was a fail. No talking points to do something more major were there to be had, unless of course I just lack the perspicacity to discern it, but I don't think so in this case. If I had found an avenue, I would have shared it. Of course!

You think redrawing FL-07 to just connect Seminole to a chunk of Volusia (rather than Orange) would be vulnerable to litigation?

I would have to examine the map with some care to opine. But I explained the metrics. The trick is to find more than one reasonable option giving respect to the metrics, and then pick the most Pub friendly one. I did that in NYS in reverse, for the Dems, who control the pencil there.

[Torie]

Here is the actual law that I thought I would put up that constrains a Pubmander.

The issue is that these types of laws are pretty vague. What is “compact” at what point does a given map “favor” one political party over another. The GOP controlled state SC prolly has a pretty loose interpretation of this law and therefore it’s more idealistic. Now if there was a specific thing that said the district borders must be at most % of the area or only X counties can be split, then we’d been having a different discussion. But things that say general “muh compact” “muh fair” won’t prevent anything

As I have said many times before, I have more faith in the courts than that, even partisan courts. I think that for an obviously partisan reason, a map makes additional county chops, or significant city chops, or makes a map significantly more erose, is very vulnerable to being struck down under the Florida law. For example, if FL-14 is going to cross the bay , it had better take in the entirety of St. Petersburg, and eliminate a county chop elsewhere or greatly mitigate it, or make some CD materially more compact. A line change that benefits the Pubs, while also adding some other negative factor as described above, has no talking points to go to the court with. The Pub case in such event has no clothes, and the court is quite unlikely to ignore that fact the way the emperor's subjects did when the he was in his birthday suit. I am not changing my mind of this one. Color me obtuse or stubborn if you must. I won't mind too much.


That said, I Pubbed up Tim's TX-13 by a grand total of 30 basis points. My talking point? Keep the cities united! I lost a muni chop, and even though the erosity is a tad greater, that is a damn good talking point - in fact it should be a winner! Aren't I wonderful?  

A masochist can go through Tim's map with a fine tooth comb, and try to find other ways to Pub it up, that have similar talking points available. But it won't be FL-13. I tried and it was a fail. No talking points to do something more major were there to be had, unless of course I just lack the perspicacity to discern it, but I don't think so in this case. If I had found an avenue, I would have shared it. Of course!

Fair enough. With FL-13, what I do is make one entirely Pinellas based CD, and the leftovers “just happen” to be FL-14. I really do hope you’re right that the courts will enforce the law, to help mitigate the gerrymander a bit.

The problem with that is that you generate an extra, and major, muni chop, without any offsetting benefit. St. Pete just has too many residents,  a most unfortunate inconvenience for the Pubs. Even if its population fit the Pub agenda as you described it, just what is the benefit of crossing the bay other than partisan reasons? Is there some other benefit elsewhere as a plus to justify it?

[Torie]

Here is the actual law that I thought I would put up that constrains a Pubmander.

The issue is that these types of laws are pretty vague. What is “compact” at what point does a given map “favor” one political party over another. The GOP controlled state SC prolly has a pretty loose interpretation of this law and therefore it’s more idealistic. Now if there was a specific thing that said the district borders must be at most % of the area or only X counties can be split, then we’d been having a different discussion. But things that say general “muh compact” “muh fair” won’t prevent anything

As I have said many times before, I have more faith in the courts than that, even partisan courts. I think that for an obviously partisan reason, a map makes additional county chops, or significant city chops, or makes a map significantly more erose, is very vulnerable to being struck down under the Florida law. For example, if FL-14 is going to cross the bay , it had better take in the entirety of St. Petersburg, and eliminate a county chop elsewhere or greatly mitigate it, or make some CD materially more compact. A line change that benefits the Pubs, while also adding some other negative factor as described above, has no talking points to go to the court with. The Pub case in such event has no clothes, and the court is quite unlikely to ignore that fact the way the emperor's subjects did when the he was in his birthday suit. I am not changing my mind of this one. Color me obtuse or stubborn if you must. I won't mind too much.


That said, I Pubbed up Tim's TX-13 by a grand total of 30 basis points. My talking point? Keep the cities united! I lost a muni chop, and even though the erosity is a tad greater, that is a damn good talking point - in fact it should be a winner! Aren't I wonderful?  

A masochist can go through Tim's map with a fine tooth comb, and try to find other ways to Pub it up, that have similar talking points available. But it won't be FL-13. I tried and it was a fail. No talking points to do something more major were there to be had, unless of course I just lack the perspicacity to discern it, but I don't think so in this case. If I had found an avenue, I would have shared it. Of course!

Fair enough. With FL-13, what I do is make one entirely Pinellas based CD, and the leftovers “just happen” to be FL-14. I really do hope you’re right that the courts will enforce the law, to help mitigate the gerrymander a bit.

The problem with that is that you generate an extra, and major, muni chop, without any offsetting benefit. St. Pete just has too many residents,  a most unfortunate inconvenience for the Pubs. Even if its population fit the Pub agenda as you described it, just what is the benefit of crossing the bay other than partisan reasons? Is there some other benefit elsewhere as a plus to justify it?

Only idea I can come up with is to keep Pinellas to 1 county chop, and have one reasonably high minority majority seat with a mild black influence, but that’s about it

Yes that is the best argument, well done. But I don't think that will fly, unless the FLST channels its more hackish impulses.

[Torie]

I took Tim’s outstanding legal Pubmander and did a Beautify, Equify, Unify to it (BEU), and amazingly it also just happened to Pubify the map a bit. Imagine that? A BEUP! That donut hole in Duval in particular just HAD to go! And Unify those cities! Yes! Nothing here that breaks the sound barrier of course. Tim did his homework.

That said, instead of projecting the Dems get 10 seats in 2022, I am moving them down to 9 as a projection for the moment. It could go as low as 8.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/086607bd-651e-4fdf-9783-eca50d016e59

[Torie]

I redid my hardline Republican gerrymander of Florida using the 2020 census results.
This is (and I'm very confident in this) 100% as far as Republicans can go.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

21/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
59/100 on the Compactness Index
24/100 on County Splitting
78/100 on the Minority Representation index
22/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 20R to 8D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 18R to 10D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 20R to 8D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 19R to 9D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 19R to 9D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 20R to 8D


This map makes use of two Hispanic 80%+ majority districts in South Florida and one Hispanic majority district in the Orlando area. That serves the major risk to this map (along with Pinellas and Jacksonville) as being pretty blatant Hispanic packing, not because of the high percentages of Latinos, but because there are only 2 Latino majority districts in the Miami area configured in such a way that the third Latino majority district (something very, very easy to draw) does not exist.

It also has two Black majority districts in Southeast Florida by population (50.4% and 50.0%). They are the North Dade-South Broward District and the North Broward-Palm Beach District). They are only plurality Black by Voting-Age population, though.

There's actually a ton more I can say about this map, but I'm too lazy to write it down.

One thing though I will say is that I'll be so shocked if Seminole County isn't split with the Western part of Seminole being combined with The Villages.

I just had a moment of epiphany when I stumbled upon that, it felt like a stroke of genius. No doubt the Republicans will find a way to realize it too. It just makes the Orlando area completely invulnerable to ever get a third Democratic district. Even if Western Seminole diversifies and blues, then Sumter County and the Villages are growing just as fast and are a very high-turnout group! If that fails, Florida probably fell blue a long time before that though.

Also, this map just shows the difficulty it takes to make a 20R - 8D map without probably violating some VRA rule with lack of Hispanic-majority districts. I see 19R - 9D, 18R - 10D as far more likely and think even 17R - 11D is back on the table.

The sixth Southeast Florida D district will probably be granted, the Pinellas District has a good chance of staying, and the Jacksonville district, while unlikely, remains a realistic possibility.


Opinions?

Wow! No [An] intent to favor one party or blow off county and muni lines in contravention of the law in evidence anywhere.

The portion of the map that wins the silver is screenshot below. What wins the gold? Bisecting the black neighborhoods of Jacksonville into two districts, almost down the middle of course. Yes!  



Absent the inconvenience of Florida law, excellent job of course. If you turn off the county lines, the map actually looks pretty almost, particularly given that the DRA color graphics cover lots of ocean water, thereby fattening up the prong images, as in that tan blob in the image above.

[Torie]

As I have said many times before, I have more faith in the courts than that, even partisan courts. I think that for an obviously partisan reason, a map makes additional county chops, or significant city chops, or makes a map significantly more erose, is very vulnerable to being struck down under the Florida law. For example, if FL-14 is going to cross the bay , it had better take in the entirety of St. Petersburg, and eliminate a county chop elsewhere or greatly mitigate it, or make some CD materially more compact. A line change that benefits the Pubs, while also adding some other negative factor as described above, has no talking points to go to the court with. The Pub case in such event has no clothes, and the court is quite unlikely to ignore that fact the way the emperor's subjects did when the he was in his birthday suit. I am not changing my mind of this one. Color me obtuse or stubborn if you must. I won't mind too much.

I believe your talking point will not be county chops or material compactness but physical connection. The old FL-14 relied solely on water connections to take in south St. Pete; it should be possible (though maybe more trouble than it's worth, haven't run the numbers) to draw a FL-14 that includes the Gandy and Howard Frankland bridges between Tampa and St. Pete.

Is that a bullsh**t distinction? Sure, but it's exactly the type of fine-grained distinction that I could imagine this court (which, remember, has been remade almost entirely by DeSantis and Scott) buying. HD-70, also a Pinellas seat, relies on the same logic to go down to Sarasota and has not been successfully challenged.

When you say "not successfully challenged," was the Florida law that bans favoring one party and respecting jurisdictional lines on the books at the time? The point is not so much bridges, but more having a rationale other than just a partisan one, for the way the lines are drawn.

If the Pubs do a St. Pete chop, the odds are 100% that it will end up in Court, and if the FLST upholds it, then yes, that would be a disgrace, and the Court Pub members exposed as utter  hacks with no redeeming virtue whatsoever.

[Torie]

I love that we've normalized that a Florida Supreme Court will ignore a disadvantageous amendment to the State Constitution because "it's now a Republican court."

Just like the OR and NY courts and the IL courts for legislative maps which are supposed to be "reasonably compact". These courts just won't get involved mostly.

That may be the case, but in Florida the amendment was passed recently and interpreted by the court to force a remap a few years ago, so this would be a change from recent jurisprudence and the intent of the people just because it's now Republican justices so they'll choose to ignore the specific, actionable directives of the amendment because they don't want to.

I don't know how long those other terms in other states have been in the legislation or if they've ever come up before... or that we assume the NY supreme court (whatever it's called) wouldn't strike down a Dem gerrymander, which they might.

"NY supreme court (whatever it's called)"

The Appellate Division of the Appellate Court. Please write that down.   It has a certain insane logic to it. If you want to appeal the appeals court, pretend it is the trial court of what appellate  courts do, which has its own appeals court.

PS: The Supreme Courts are actually a thing in NYS to confuse the masses still further, but they are mere trial courts close to the bottom of the food chain, just above the pond scum of municipal courts that deal with park and bark cases, and cases under 5K or whatever the jurisdictional limit number is at the moment.

[Torie]

I can't believe they would not gerrymander, but I also can't believe they would release "good" maps and set themselves up to look bad later by gerrymandering after the fact.

Is it possible that trends in Central Florida are so risky that they preferred not to mess with FL-7?

Perhaps they think even with a Pub Supreme Court, they understand what "unduly favor" means, in a way nobody thinks obtains in NYS with identical language? With redistricting it's agitprop 24/7, and on commissions of citizens ala MI, the Dems seem to have a monopoly on the smarts, and the Pubs the dumbs, just the way the political coalitions are going.

[Torie]

Perhaps they think even with a Pub Supreme Court, they understand what "unduly favor" means

Stop trying to make fetch happen, Torie

I am too obtuse, or clueless, or senile, or un-hip, to understand what "fetch" means here in context. You can either enlighten me here, PM more, or ignore. No problem. You have a point about the the verb "stop" but that is for another day. It was from anyone but a very few, I would not respond to the the verb "stop."  I will "stop" soon enough. Patience.

[Torie]

Here is an alternative iteration of the Tampa Bay area that should fly with the court on the grounds that it avoids chopping Tampa and bifurcating the black hoods in the city. It does move FL-13 a PVI point to the Dems however, back to where it is now, so the map is not a Pub free lunch.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1465340478686044167
This is what I was expecting from the beginning.  

It seems Sabatini's unpopularity with the FL GOP is what's keeping them from cracking FL-7,  this is the only map that does it.

Here is a link to the map that snatches two more seats for the Pubs where you can layer it. It seems skillfully done, but with that said, I don't really see how it can be plausibly marketed to FLOTUS as something other than an unduly favors map. It would be interesting to find our or surmise what the Pub talking points would be here, assuming they plan to bother with talking points rather than assuming the court is as hackish as they are.

https://redistricting.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=60dc96cf568f4090ae064d57aa434645

[Torie]

Not sure what the plan with that 15th is. Not only is that basically guaranteed to not be R-held all decade it probably won't even be R-leaning at the end of the decade.

The alternative per previous maps, was to cede it now. One thing that is fascinating is forecasting political trends, and with what level of confidence, and by whom, and how much of that is influencing how the lines are drawn.

[Torie]

I redid my hardline Republican gerrymander of Florida using the 2020 census results.
This is (and I'm very confident in this) 100% as far as Republicans can go.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

21/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
59/100 on the Compactness Index
24/100 on County Splitting
78/100 on the Minority Representation index
22/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 20R to 8D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 18R to 10D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 20R to 8D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 19R to 9D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 19R to 9D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 20R to 8D


This map makes use of two Hispanic 80%+ majority districts in South Florida and one Hispanic majority district in the Orlando area. That serves the major risk to this map (along with Pinellas and Jacksonville) as being pretty blatant Hispanic packing, not because of the high percentages of Latinos, but because there are only 2 Latino majority districts in the Miami area configured in such a way that the third Latino majority district (something very, very easy to draw) does not exist.

It also has two Black majority districts in Southeast Florida by population (50.4% and 50.0%). They are the North Dade-South Broward District and the North Broward-Palm Beach District). They are only plurality Black by Voting-Age population, though.

There's actually a ton more I can say about this map, but I'm too lazy to write it down.

One thing though I will say is that I'll be so shocked if Seminole County isn't split with the Western part of Seminole being combined with The Villages.

I just had a moment of epiphany when I stumbled upon that, it felt like a stroke of genius. No doubt the Republicans will find a way to realize it too. It just makes the Orlando area completely invulnerable to ever get a third Democratic district. Even if Western Seminole diversifies and blues, then Sumter County and the Villages are growing just as fast and are a very high-turnout group! If that fails, Florida probably fell blue a long time before that though.

Also, this map just shows the difficulty it takes to make a 20R - 8D map without probably violating some VRA rule with lack of Hispanic-majority districts. I see 19R - 9D, 18R - 10D as far more likely and think even 17R - 11D is back on the table.

The sixth Southeast Florida D district will probably be granted, the Pinellas District has a good chance of staying, and the Jacksonville district, while unlikely, remains a realistic possibility.


Opinions?

Gingles bells, Gingles bells, ho, ho, ho! In tune with the spirit of Covid and lockdowns and cabin fever run wild, Santa is a process server this year, spreading cheer to lawyers everywhere by stuffing stockings with summonses and complaints.

[Torie]

To be honest I do think that FL-05 would likely get struck down in federal court today--conservatives in the 11th circuit and on SCOTUS would probably have a field day with it. Hope I'm wrong though.

What do you think is the VRA case against FL-05 past or present or as drawn by the legislative map drafts? I don't discern a case that has much merit myself. There certainly is nothing requiring that a performing black CD be drawn, either in its current form, or as a Duval centric CD.

[Torie]

What I don't get is why the Dems voted "No" lol

This map is a best-case scenario.

A few of them wanted to push for another Hispanic access seat in central florida.

Between this, the Beshear veto in KY, and the refusal to supply 2/3rds in MO, Dems sure are into counterproductive last stand tactics these days.

Redistricting drives even the most calm and centered of the contestants into utter perfervid self-destructive insanity.

[Torie]

FWIW, I think the state senate CD map is very skillfully done, almost a work of art actually.(Notice how it moves FL-13 another Pub pvi point by snatching away a few Dem precincts in St. Pete via a very smooth straight line running down some freeway along the west side of the bay - just glorious.)  It is a soft Pub gerrymander, that should be safe from court challenge under the state constitution.  DeSantis's performance art here can only be part of his peacock strut for POTUS. Just as the CD map is a Pub-lite gerrymander, DeSantis strikes me as Trump-lite.

[Torie]

FWIW, I think the state senate CD map is very skillfully done, almost a work of art actually.(Notice how it moves FL-13 another Pub pvi point by snatching away a few Dem precincts in St. Pete via a very smooth straight line running down some freeway along the west side of the bay - just glorious.)  It is a soft Pub gerrymander, that should be safe from court challenge under the state constitution.  DeSantis's performance art here can only be part of his peacock strut for POTUS. Just as the CD map is a Pub-lite gerrymander, DeSantis strikes me as Trump-lite.

Making 3 biden seats in the Tampa Bay area isn't a soft pubmander.

I was focused on FL-13 in particular, but the two seats to the east are not all that Dem. I use the term "Pubmander" in the context of what can be snatched away or protected without generating a material amount of legal risk. As soon as a court gets hostile, you tend to lose control of the process, and then there is no telling what the discommoded ones in robes might do to let the pols know who is boss.

[Torie]

FWIW, I think the state senate CD map is very skillfully done, almost a work of art actually.(Notice how it moves FL-13 another Pub pvi point by snatching away a few Dem precincts in St. Pete via a very smooth straight line running down some freeway along the west side of the bay - just glorious.)  It is a soft Pub gerrymander, that should be safe from court challenge under the state constitution.  DeSantis's performance art here can only be part of his peacock strut for POTUS. Just as the CD map is a Pub-lite gerrymander, DeSantis strikes me as Trump-lite.

Making 3 biden seats in the Tampa Bay area isn't a soft pubmander.

I was focused on FL-13 in particular, but the two seats to the east are not all that Dem. I use the term "Pubmander" in the context of what can be snatched away or protected without generating a material amount of legal risk. As soon as a court gets hostile, you tend to lose control of the process, and then there is no telling what the discommoded ones in robes might do to let the pols know who is boss.

It's Biden +5 and +8 which are both left of the nation. Not sure what advantage the GOP gets in giving a creating a new seat left of the median for the Democrats. I did agree that the Desantis map was a very poor pubmander as it was both contraversial with little benefit. My proposed Tampa map from a few pages before gives the same partisan benefit while not really being a gerrymander.

What page number is your map on?

[Torie]

FWIW, I think the state senate CD map is very skillfully done, almost a work of art actually.(Notice how it moves FL-13 another Pub pvi point by snatching away a few Dem precincts in St. Pete via a very smooth straight line running down some freeway along the west side of the bay - just glorious.)  It is a soft Pub gerrymander, that should be safe from court challenge under the state constitution.  DeSantis's performance art here can only be part of his peacock strut for POTUS. Just as the CD map is a Pub-lite gerrymander, DeSantis strikes me as Trump-lite.

Making 3 biden seats in the Tampa Bay area isn't a soft pubmander.

I was focused on FL-13 in particular, but the two seats to the east are not all that Dem. I use the term "Pubmander" in the context of what can be snatched away or protected without generating a material amount of legal risk. As soon as a court gets hostile, you tend to lose control of the process, and then there is no telling what the discommoded ones in robes might do to let the pols know who is boss.

It's Biden +5 and +8 which are both left of the nation. Not sure what advantage the GOP gets in giving a creating a new seat left of the median for the Democrats. I did agree that the Desantis map was a very poor pubmander as it was both contraversial with little benefit. My proposed Tampa map from a few pages before gives the same partisan benefit while not really being a gerrymander.

What page number is your map on?

15. It is perhaps a touch to cherry picked in Pinellas but in Tampa it just follows city boundaries. Don't forget to rescue the Cubans of Western Hillsborough

You have a dra link to it? I will check it out tonight. Off to traffic court 2 hours away to fight a ticket that I think was wrong. Everything for defense, not one cent for tribute.