2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[David Hume]

I redid my hardline Republican gerrymander of Florida using the 2020 census results.
This is (and I'm very confident in this) 100% as far as Republicans can go.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

21/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
59/100 on the Compactness Index
24/100 on County Splitting
78/100 on the Minority Representation index
22/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 20R to 8D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 18R to 10D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 20R to 8D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 19R to 9D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 19R to 9D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 20R to 8D


This map makes use of two Hispanic 80%+ majority districts in South Florida and one Hispanic majority district in the Orlando area. That serves the major risk to this map (along with Pinellas and Jacksonville) as being pretty blatant Hispanic packing, not because of the high percentages of Latinos, but because there are only 2 Latino majority districts in the Miami area configured in such a way that the third Latino majority district (something very, very easy to draw) does not exist.

It also has two Black majority districts in Southeast Florida by population (50.4% and 50.0%). They are the North Dade-South Broward District and the North Broward-Palm Beach District). They are only plurality Black by Voting-Age population, though.

There's actually a ton more I can say about this map, but I'm too lazy to write it down.

One thing though I will say is that I'll be so shocked if Seminole County isn't split with the Western part of Seminole being combined with The Villages.

I just had a moment of epiphany when I stumbled upon that, it felt like a stroke of genius. No doubt the Republicans will find a way to realize it too. It just makes the Orlando area completely invulnerable to ever get a third Democratic district. Even if Western Seminole diversifies and blues, then Sumter County and the Villages are growing just as fast and are a very high-turnout group! If that fails, Florida probably fell blue a long time before that though.

Also, this map just shows the difficulty it takes to make a 20R - 8D map without probably violating some VRA rule with lack of Hispanic-majority districts. I see 19R - 9D, 18R - 10D as far more likely and think even 17R - 11D is back on the table.

The sixth Southeast Florida D district will probably be granted, the Pinellas District has a good chance of staying, and the Jacksonville district, while unlikely, remains a realistic possibility.


Opinions?

Great job!

This map will be sued for violating of VRA for sure. Not sure if FLGOP want to risk it. One good thing for them is 11th circuit is pretty partisan. I don't think SC will grant cert, since Roberts wants to avoid controversy, and he hates VRA since the beginning of his career. This means the case my end up decided at 11th circuit en banc, with a likely vote on party line .

[David Hume]

I redid my hardline Republican gerrymander of Florida using the 2020 census results.
This is (and I'm very confident in this) 100% as far as Republicans can go.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

21/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
59/100 on the Compactness Index
24/100 on County Splitting
78/100 on the Minority Representation index
22/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 20R to 8D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 18R to 10D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 20R to 8D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 19R to 9D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 19R to 9D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 20R to 8D


This map makes use of two Hispanic 80%+ majority districts in South Florida and one Hispanic majority district in the Orlando area. That serves the major risk to this map (along with Pinellas and Jacksonville) as being pretty blatant Hispanic packing, not because of the high percentages of Latinos, but because there are only 2 Latino majority districts in the Miami area configured in such a way that the third Latino majority district (something very, very easy to draw) does not exist.

It also has two Black majority districts in Southeast Florida by population (50.4% and 50.0%). They are the North Dade-South Broward District and the North Broward-Palm Beach District). They are only plurality Black by Voting-Age population, though.

There's actually a ton more I can say about this map, but I'm too lazy to write it down.

One thing though I will say is that I'll be so shocked if Seminole County isn't split with the Western part of Seminole being combined with The Villages.

I just had a moment of epiphany when I stumbled upon that, it felt like a stroke of genius. No doubt the Republicans will find a way to realize it too. It just makes the Orlando area completely invulnerable to ever get a third Democratic district. Even if Western Seminole diversifies and blues, then Sumter County and the Villages are growing just as fast and are a very high-turnout group! If that fails, Florida probably fell blue a long time before that though.

Also, this map just shows the difficulty it takes to make a 20R - 8D map without probably violating some VRA rule with lack of Hispanic-majority districts. I see 19R - 9D, 18R - 10D as far more likely and think even 17R - 11D is back on the table.

The sixth Southeast Florida D district will probably be granted, the Pinellas District has a good chance of staying, and the Jacksonville district, while unlikely, remains a realistic possibility.


Opinions?

Can you shuffle 24, 26, 27, 28 to make all of them Hispanic majority, while keeping similar partisan breakdown? Or even push 24 to be roughly even? I feel 4 Hispanic plus 2 black district are probably enough for VRA.

[David Hume]

I redid my hardline Republican gerrymander of Florida using the 2020 census results.
This is (and I'm very confident in this) 100% as far as Republicans can go.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

21/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
59/100 on the Compactness Index
24/100 on County Splitting
78/100 on the Minority Representation index
22/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 20R to 8D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 18R to 10D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 20R to 8D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 19R to 9D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 19R to 9D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 20R to 8D


This map makes use of two Hispanic 80%+ majority districts in South Florida and one Hispanic majority district in the Orlando area. That serves the major risk to this map (along with Pinellas and Jacksonville) as being pretty blatant Hispanic packing, not because of the high percentages of Latinos, but because there are only 2 Latino majority districts in the Miami area configured in such a way that the third Latino majority district (something very, very easy to draw) does not exist.

It also has two Black majority districts in Southeast Florida by population (50.4% and 50.0%). They are the North Dade-South Broward District and the North Broward-Palm Beach District). They are only plurality Black by Voting-Age population, though.

There's actually a ton more I can say about this map, but I'm too lazy to write it down.

One thing though I will say is that I'll be so shocked if Seminole County isn't split with the Western part of Seminole being combined with The Villages.

I just had a moment of epiphany when I stumbled upon that, it felt like a stroke of genius. No doubt the Republicans will find a way to realize it too. It just makes the Orlando area completely invulnerable to ever get a third Democratic district. Even if Western Seminole diversifies and blues, then Sumter County and the Villages are growing just as fast and are a very high-turnout group! If that fails, Florida probably fell blue a long time before that though.

Also, this map just shows the difficulty it takes to make a 20R - 8D map without probably violating some VRA rule with lack of Hispanic-majority districts. I see 19R - 9D, 18R - 10D as far more likely and think even 17R - 11D is back on the table.

The sixth Southeast Florida D district will probably be granted, the Pinellas District has a good chance of staying, and the Jacksonville district, while unlikely, remains a realistic possibility.


Opinions?

Spent half a day working on your map. In the south, I was able to draw 3 R+ 11 VRA seats with 50%+ Latino, one 50%+ Latino D seats, one 50%+ Black D states. The last black D seats ends up around 47%. The map looks horrible, as I have to link minority precincts or even blocks like doing surgery. You may be able to find a cleaner way though.

I guess this would survive VRA court challenges. Five latino plus two black seats seems pretty good, so the north black opportunity seats are not needed. I am curious if this will pass the highly partisan FLSC though.
   

[David Hume]

-SNIP-

Spent half a day working on your map. In the south, I was able to draw 3 R+ 11 VRA seats with 50%+ Latino, one 50%+ Latino D seats, one 50%+ Black D states. The last black D seats ends up around 47%. The map looks horrible, as I have to link minority precincts or even blocks like doing surgery. You may be able to find a cleaner way though.

I guess this would survive VRA court challenges. Five latino plus two black seats seems pretty good, so the north black opportunity seats are not needed. I am curious if this will pass the highly partisan FLSC though.   

Damn nice stuff man

You got a link? I'm interested to see whether or not you pushed the Hialeah District up North into Weston-Pembroke Pines-West Miramar.

BTW I apologize for not getting around to trying your idea out, made it halfway through then forgot about it.

Just PMed the link, as some of the changes wasn't saved properly, leaving it half-finished.

[David Hume]

They aren't going to kill FL-05, a VRA district.

Actually, it's not a VRA district as it's only ~40% black, and it'd be very hard to make majority Black, even though it does functionally elect a black Dem

It doesn't need to be >50% to be performing, only >50% to qualify for section 2. Because it is performing under RPV, attempting to end it would qualify as retrogression.

There is a reason why the senate map, drawn specifically to avoid a court fight, does not even touch the seat. Similarly, the Senate found that the 10th is performing by statistical metrics even though that has less African American percentage.



Don't marry yourself to 50%, the courts have not. More than 50% is needed in some parts of the country, less than 39% in others.

You should also take into account the courts' partisan lean. 11th circuit is very partisan, with Chief Judge Pryor basically Alito. They can easily rule that FL-05 was not reasonably compact as it connects unrelated communities over a hundred miles away for the sole reason to make it 40% black.

At SC level, Roberts hates VRA intensively. His first job was basically to fight against VRA as a lawyer in the Reagan administration. He strongly believes colorblindness and detests racial quotas. If this case arrives at SC, he may simply refuse to gran cert. Or even worse for Dems, strike down VRA seats in total.

[David Hume]

I think its really lazy to say the only point is for MAGA Chad's or laser eyes. The point now is DeSantis wants more seats so that he can run for president and come in with a R house majority .

Interesting, so the Tallahassee district would flip easily (and I assume isn’t trend left very hard) and the two Jacksonville districts wouldn’t be dummy-manders for at least several years?

Agreed, plus he can’t really be that stupid to think he’s winning over any substantial number of voters with the laser eyeing. The majority of GOP primary voters have no idea what redistricting even does, much less be willing to vote on it 3 years later lol
 

https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-election/2022/02/11/florida-legislature-block-desantis-redistricted-map-proposes-inferior-map/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Breitbart commenters are definetely a bit favorable but overall this is quite behind all the media. Most GOP primary voters care more about the regular policy

Overall the Tallahasee seat is quite weird. It voted D in 2014 of all years and does have ancestral D leanings. The Dem state senator for the district covering it got 70% of the vote in a Biden +6 district but the one in 2020 did the same as Biden. Overall on an average seat for the decade level, DeSantis's map is worth it.

However IMO cutting a black seat is risky. If you don't have FL-05 it gets easier for Democrats to try to pass a true independent commision with more uniform black support. If say 25-30% of  D leaning minorites oppose independent redistricting it gets a decent bit harder to pass any such reform.

Why? FL used to be highly gerrymandered to R's interest. D leaning minorities should always favor commission than R legislatures.

[David Hume]

DeSantis is unnecessarily strengthening the Democrats’ hand here, there is obviously now a real incentive to strike a deal with the Democrats and override the veto.

This tweet was read on the floor during the debate, apparently shocking some of the house according to MCI who is watching from somewhere in the building. While this was obvious to us, it may adjust the internal calculus of the chamber: either prepare for the courts or get the veto-override votes.

This seems weird. DeSantis made it clear he would veto it. Can't believe those legislators did not pay attention.

[David Hume]

It's interesting that FL state Legs have yet to send the maps to DeSantis. Maybe they are just waiting the court to take over?

[David Hume]

It's interesting that FL state Legs have yet to send the maps to DeSantis. Maybe they are just waiting the court to take over?

Could be discussions or bribery for other DeSantis priorities or vice versa. There's some Everglades deregulation bjll Simpson supports but DeSantis opposes.

I always find it hard to understand why people like Simpson want to fight with DeSantis about redistricting. What can they gain? They can simply pass the DeSantismander. How many voters will vote against him because of this? Passing a Dem-friendly map and pissing off R base, or passing DeSantismander and pissing off D base, I would rather avoid being called a RINO. Even if he is afraid of litigations, they are not directed against him personally, and he does not need to pay the legal fee from his own pocket. But fighting with DeSantis can harm his political career deeply.