2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[S019]

I made this FL map (assuming 2 new seats)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b4cf0ac9-3d24-42b1-a667-3ac8d2f9d07d

It's mostly a continuity map, but a slight R gerry

The 26th (now the 28th) moves much to the right

The 13th drops St. Petersburg which is picked up by the 16th, new seats are the 19th, as the 17th is shrunk into much of the current 16th, and a new 26th, which is a majority Hispanic seat in Miami

I tried to avoid splitting counties for partisan gain and most splits were for population equivalency purposes.

Population deviation for all seats is under 1,000 votes

[S019]

With Salazar and Giminez both winning, I do wonder how the GOP handles south Florida, I don't think they can save both districts for 10 years, but would they even try?

[S019]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c29ea525-2bb3-47ad-bedd-a4e398cca30a I attempted a GOP map of Florida that I think mostly follows the fair maps law and doesn't do anything too egregious

[S019]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1397988994835574785?s=20

[S019]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1397988994835574785?s=20

This dude thinks putting St.Pete with FL 14th thereby creating a 27% black district makes for a VRA violation.

This doesn't change the fact that state GOP leadership doesn't like him.

[S019]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71630c42-e6fa-46ad-ab9f-c0f2e44735a0, I attempted 28 Florida and it turned out much worse than my 29 attempt, not having a new seat in Miami Dade makes it tricky to figure out how to divide the county. I tried putting the new seat in Miami Dade at first, but that caused major issues elsewhere in the map.

[S019]

Has anyone taken on the chore of drawing a FL CD Pubmander that intelligently balances the risks and rewards associated with the legal constraints to which the map is subject (assuming a Pub friendly but not hackish, FL Supreme Court)? Is so, I would appreciate being directed to it.

I've tried something like this, but I always find it tricky because you need to cut up Hillsborough pretty perfectly for it to work, assuming you send the 14th into St. Pete, to take it out of Crist's seat, and Miami is always a total mess to draw, especially with FL only gaining 1 seat, which probably goes in I-4. Getting rid of Murphy is pretty easy, and can be done with few consequences, though.

[S019]

Has anyone taken on the chore of drawing a FL CD Pubmander that intelligently balances the risks and rewards associated with the legal constraints to which the map is subject (assuming a Pub friendly but not hackish, FL Supreme Court)? Is so, I would appreciate being directed to it.

Well, that depends a lot on how hackish the court is. To take S019's example, looking at FL-13, a non-hackish court wouldn't send FL-14 into Pinellas at all — there's precedent directly on point saying that violates the Fair Districts Amendment. A slightly more hackish court would allow it, but might require FL-13 to stay within Pinellas instead of extending into Pasco or west Hillsborough; an even more hackish court would allow that kind of solution.

In general, I would assume a Pub friendly and extremely hackish court — DeSantis has stacked it that way for a reason — but that the Legislature may not go for maximal R gain because of other factors (like keeping Bilirakis's Pinellas residence in FL-12, which limits how aggressively you can draw FL-13).

I think folks in general assume state high courts are more hackish than they in fact are. Sure, partisan courts (which I deplore), will go in the direction of their preferred  party when there are reasonable choices to make and they pick the ones that help their team, like the PA Dem friendly court did in two instances as to CD lines in the last cycle, but it is rare I think that they go hog wild.

For reference, I've been more optimistic on FL than most, and I'm undecided on whether the FL-13 situation is ultimately allowed, but I expect that's as far as they can go, if they try to get rid of Demings, Soto, or Lawson, there's a very strong argument that racial gerrymandering is involved, which is an even harder case to win than one against partisan gerrymandering. As for South Florida, they have enough vulnerable incumbents down there as is, and they'd be well advised to pack all of the Democrats into as blue seats as possible.

[S019]

Huh, interesting. Maybe they're trying to play it safe with the SC?

Either that or incumbent demands limited their choices, for instance Bilirakis lives in Pinellas, if he wishes to keep his home in his seat that obviously limits GOP options for FL-13 (this is just an example, idk if it happened, but it's an example of the type of stuff we could be talking about)

[S019]

From this article




Does anyone know for sure who actually drew these maps?

Well here's the publisher of that site:

https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1458549388599611395

More: https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1458551022230642690


So seems like they did want to play it safe and avoid legal challenges

[S019]

My 18-10 Map:





24,21,27 are Hispanic VAP Majority. 22,23 are black VAP plurality (~45%)

16 is a Hispanic VRA at 49% Hispanic VAP. 20 is Hispanic Opportunity at 43.7%-43.6% white-hispanic VAP.

5 should keep Lawson decently happy, it is 45.6% White, 41.8% Black on VAP and a 44.5% Black Plurality on Total Population

Rs would be set to get 4 seats in the Miami-Palm Beach Area vs 3. 20, 28, 21 would be taken by existing incumbents and 27 is the "added district" and would elect a new R. The area would continue to have 5 democrat-occupied districts, though the 24th could flip in an R wave.

The other 5 Dems are Lawson, Crist, Castor, and the two Orlando-Area Sinks.

Stephanie Murphy is pretty dead, no matter where she would decide to run here. The new 7th is 59% Trump. Other options are better but not great - The 4th is Trump +7 and the 13th is Trump +5.

There is a half-hearted attempt to go after Kathy Castor in what I re-numbered as the 12th, but it is still Biden +1 and trending D so it probably holds for her.

This would obviously never pass the fair maps law

[S019]

Maybe this is just the optimist in me, but I feel like the legislature can care less what DeSantis wants, they obviously want to promote their parochial interests in any such map and would probably rather not risk a court finding a gerrymandered map in violation of Florida law and throwing it out. If DeSantis doesn't budge, I wouldn't be surprised to see Republicans give a few concessions to Democrats, particularly on the state maps (which are not subject to veto and Democratic lawmakers probably care more about given it's their own districts) to force through a veto override on the Congressional. This all strikes me as virtue signaling over nothing, and the legislature can easily tell DeSantis that they won't listen, and if they can give concessions to a few Democratic lawmakers, DeSantis can do nothing to stop them.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1497053769422581761

[S019]

DeSantis is unnecessarily strengthening the Democrats’ hand here, there is obviously now a real incentive to strike a deal with the Democrats and override the veto.

[S019]

If they’re smart, Democrats would ask for using the old Senate draft as a starting point for negotiations. Though these maps aren’t particularly awful.