2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1488989718444326913?s=20&t=I65sS3MZQ6BC...

Congress is now the only one left.

[lfromnj]

Also another example of being allowed to do draw some weirder districts. HD 117 is a black oppurtunity in southern Miami Dade County. Creating this district shores up all the surrounding hispanic districts. It isn't that weird a district though but it is convinient for the GOP.

[Oryxslayer]

Also another example of being allowed to do draw some weirder districts. HD 117 is a black oppurtunity in southern Miami Dade County. Creating this district shores up all the surrounding hispanic districts. It isn't that weird a district though but it is convinient for the GOP.

Yeah the GOP didn't really go for the big dem strongholds here. Like with Gainesville in the State Senate, they locked in the majority by carving up the isolated forts that would likely get their own seats under a fair plan. Places like Sarasota, eastern Lee, St. Lucie, eastern Polk, and Pensacola got carved up by their R surroundings.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1488989718444326913?s=20&t=I65sS3MZQ6BC...

Congress is now the only one left.

That 62 is something...

[lfromnj]

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/492782-chris-sprowls-defends-ron-desantis-involvement-in-congressional-redistricting/

[Torie]

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/492782-chris-sprowls-defends-ron-desantis-involvement-in-congressional-redistricting/

DeSantis wants an advisory opinion from the Florida court? That is weird. And is the opinion to be based on state or federal law. FL-05 as drawn is neither required nor banned under the VRA.

[lfromnj]

Interestingly one aspect of the DeSantis plan that was criticized was the receding of FL 20th to solely Broward. I wonder if this is either the media being confused by the plan or if the recently elected D incumbent put pressure against that plan. After all she is from Palm Beach and not Broward.

[lfromnj]

By the way I was looking at 2016 data for a Duval seat and saw how well Rubio did in Duval. Obviously large parts were due to white overperformance but I also noticed that he did really well with the black vote . Are there any reasons why ?
He was getting like 13 % of the vote in the core black area compared to like 5% max for anyone else. This black ovdrpeformance was only happening in Duval.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1490739496207454209?s=20&t=XmuZ1nlsNIlpv...

Advisory opinions thread.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

By the way I was looking at 2016 data for a Duval seat and saw how well Rubio did in Duval. Obviously large parts were due to white overperformance but I also noticed that he did really well with the black vote . Are there any reasons why ?
He was getting like 13 % of the vote in the core black area compared to like 5% max for anyone else. This black ovdrpeformance was only happening in Duval.

Only in Duval?
That's a total  mystery.
Does he have any connections to Jacksonville?

[lfromnj]

By the way I was looking at 2016 data for a Duval seat and saw how well Rubio did in Duval. Obviously large parts were due to white overperformance but I also noticed that he did really well with the black vote . Are there any reasons why ?
He was getting like 13 % of the vote in the core black area compared to like 5% max for anyone else. This black ovdrpeformance was only happening in Duval.

Only in Duval?
That's a total  mystery.
Does he have any connections to Jacksonville?

Probably Hurricane Matthew now if I had to guess.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

By the way I was looking at 2016 data for a Duval seat and saw how well Rubio did in Duval. Obviously large parts were due to white overperformance but I also noticed that he did really well with the black vote . Are there any reasons why ?
He was getting like 13 % of the vote in the core black area compared to like 5% max for anyone else. This black ovdrpeformance was only happening in Duval.

Only in Duval?
That's a total  mystery.
Does he have any connections to Jacksonville?

Probably Hurricane Matthew now if I had to guess.

I guess if there was an explanation it would be something random like that I suppose.

[lfromnj]

Dems are fortunate especially in North FL that there are only 28 districts and not 29. 29 would actually make cracking FL05 easier. FL01 loses population allowing FL02 to take more of it instead of more middling rural counties, while  in Jacksonville the west district loses a few precicnts in Duval and Rutherford's district actually gets better as he loses St.Augustine which is a fairly swingy area.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Dems are fortunate especially in North FL that there are only 28 districts and not 29. 29 would actually make cracking FL05 easier. FL01 loses population allowing FL02 to take more of it instead of more middling rural counties, while  in Jacksonville the west district loses a few precicnts in Duval and Rutherford's district actually gets better as he loses St.Augustine which is a fairly swingy area.

At what point does a D-leaning N FL seat become inevitable? (like in the State Senate map)

[lfromnj]

https://www.law.com/dailybusinessreview/2022/02/08/desantis-critics-fight-over-redistricting-request/?slreturn=20220108151400

Interesting article but also found this

The groups Common Cause Florida, Fair Districts Now and All On The Line Florida and South Florida Democratic Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick submitted briefs opposed to DeSantis’ request.
Cherfilus-McCormick, who is Black, said that beyond the potential impact to minority voters in District 5, the governor’s proposed map “significantly diminishes” the voting strength of minorities in her South Florida district.

Translation: I am from Palm Beach and DeSantis receded all of FL 20th to Broward only.

Also both Sprowls and Simpson are backing DeSantis atleast for the filing of this case.

[Gass3268]

Florida Supreme Court won’t help DeSantis.

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1491804802799456265?s=21

[BoiseBoy]

Good, now can the Florida House please get on with their congressional proposal already?

[Oryxslayer]

Basically they acknowledged what some of the plaintiffs said that at this time redistricting is the purview of the legislature, and perhaps the governor if a veto is necessary and upheld. Court scrutiny therefore makes no sense unless there is an impasse. And the senate has a near-unanimously approved plan.

So we are back where we were before DeSantis butted in, with the House and Senate likely to need a negotiation process over the Tampa and Orlando regions.

[GALeftist]

OK, so the court isn't 100% hacks. Hopefully DeSantis butts out now.

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting.  Lots of surprises this year (KS and LA R gerrymanders likely going through over Dem vetoes, OH and NC getting blocked in court, FL, TX, and GA all being quite tame vs. expectations).

[Brittain33]

It’s still possible that House Rs take DeSantis’s suggestion for remapping North Florida and run with it.

[Oryxslayer]

It’s still possible that House Rs take DeSantis’s suggestion for remapping North Florida and run with it.

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1491809901919621120?s=20&t=-JAPI-EcSnHC...

They would have to go against their own stated analysis and testimony then.

[Devils30]

I expect FL-5 to remain intact. Even if it's not required, the state's fair districts law would basically require a Democratic Duval County vote sink, so not even sure how much changes.

[Smash255]

Interesting.  Lots of surprises this year (KS and LA R gerrymanders likely going through over Dem vetoes, OH and NC getting blocked in court, FL, TX, and GA all being quite tame vs. expectations).

I really don't see how TX is tame.  They took NINE vulnerable districts and made them all safer including eight of them into double digit Trump districts.  Maybe, the GOP could have made one more S. Texas seat vulnerable, but there really wasn't much they could do to go after Dem seats without sacrificing the ability to make their own seats safer.

[Mr.Phips]

I expect FL-5 to remain intact. Even if it's not required, the state's fair districts law would basically require a Democratic Duval County vote sink, so not even sure how much changes.

Maybe keep FL-05 intact but more aggressively pack the Tampa/St Pete area into just one Dem district and turn FL-07 into a Trump district (one of the House maps did this).