2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Brittain33]

I know they’d have to change what they originally said. I think it’s possible since DeSantis made a push.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/1491869496398782468?s=20&t=-JAPI-Ec...

i don't know what will happen now, but the Senate has the votes to override a veto.

[Roll Roons]

New state House map: https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1491886075375087616

Keeps FL-05, FL-07 is made considerably more R by losing all of Orange and being pushed up to Daytona Beach, FL-13 includes all of St. Pete. Alachua is also cracked.

[lfromnj]

So we're probably looking at a map that's less fair than the Senate one but nothing like the De Santis one. Something like the House map that nukes Murphy?

The thing about the Desantis map is that it's obviously very aggressive in the north but gets less and less aggressive as one goes south.  First fl05 is nuked. Then fl07 is nuked but only Trump +5
Then the st Pete Tampa district but its basically useless.  It makes way more sense at that point to draw an actually fair map and then just cherry pick it slightly.
All 3 South Fl swing districts are weaker than the legislatures maps.



Something like this works the same without being as absurd. Regular St Pete district cherrypicked to get it to Biden +2. Then a Trailer park coast distrct. After that Eastern Pasco with Northern Hillsborough excluding Tampa and any black suburbs. Then a Tampa district. Finally a Southern Hillsborough district.

They did what I did it seems, not as secure though.


https://redistricting.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=532f3c964a2046b892b4a608e2c543f1

[GALeftist]

I wonder if DeSantis is serious with his implicit veto threats. If so, could give Democrats more leverage; they'd probably want a veto override over a court map.

[lfromnj]

I wonder if DeSantis is serious with his implicit veto threats. If so, could give Democrats more leverage; they'd probably want a veto override over a court map.

DeSantis has vetoed 1 or 2 unanimously passed bills before and nothing happened to them FYI.

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1480875684444749824

not related to redistricting.

[Gass3268]

Anyone know what the BVAP is for 10?

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone know what the BVAP is for 10?

Not good comparatively. One of two major disagreements between the chambers is that the Senate's analysis found the 10th protected, the House does not. This is cause the House wants to remove the White-Black marginal precincts in the west of the county and add in the central White ones, forcing Fl-07 northwards. Finding that it is performing is reverses the situation on the senate map.

Of course the only reason they are doing this is for Fl-07, the House okay'ed districts with similar compositions as performing on their legislative lines.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, the House's third Tampa seat is apparently effectively tied based on 2020 results. This is the other major point of difference, and as shown if the Legislature wants the new seat and the others reaching into the region to be reliably R, the only way is to use the bridges to make Fl-13 into a new Dem pack for the West Bay. Kinda like what they did in December.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So this is the map that nukes Murphy but is otherwise reasonably fair? Unfortunate, but I guess I can live with it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder if DeSantis is serious with his implicit veto threats. If so, could give Democrats more leverage; they'd probably want a veto override over a court map.

DeSantis has vetoed 1 or 2 unanimously passed bills before and nothing happened to them FYI.

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1480875684444749824

not related to redistricting.

Difference is that no matter what a congressional map is needed, and I think even DeSantis would prefer a slight GOP Gerry over a Court drawn map which could cause real problems for GOP incumbents, most notably Salazar who's district could become more Dem leaning (though not a guarantee, just a possiblity).

Also seems like that FL-15 is a very very narrow Biden seat possibly. Idk why the GOP legislature has an obsession with creating 3 swingy seats in Tampa, rather than a Likely Dem seat and Tossup (as is the current map)

[Devils30]

I could see a 17-11 map being final that leaves FL-7 but uses the House narrow Trump FL-15.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I wonder if DeSantis is serious with his implicit veto threats. If so, could give Democrats more leverage; they'd probably want a veto override over a court map.

DeSantis has vetoed 1 or 2 unanimously passed bills before and nothing happened to them FYI.

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1480875684444749824
not related to redistricting.

Difference is that no matter what a congressional map is needed, and I think even DeSantis would prefer a slight GOP Gerry over a Court drawn map which could cause real problems for GOP incumbents, most notably Salazar who's district could become more Dem leaning (though not a guarantee, just a possiblity).

Also seems like that FL-15 is a very very narrow Biden seat possibly. Idk why the GOP legislature has an obsession with creating 3 swingy seats in Tampa, rather than a Likely Dem seat and Tossup (as is the current map)

That’s a good question. Does anybody have any insight on the 3 swingy Tampa seat obsession? It doesn’t seem to do much of anything

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder if DeSantis is serious with his implicit veto threats. If so, could give Democrats more leverage; they'd probably want a veto override over a court map.

DeSantis has vetoed 1 or 2 unanimously passed bills before and nothing happened to them FYI.

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1480875684444749824
not related to redistricting.

Difference is that no matter what a congressional map is needed, and I think even DeSantis would prefer a slight GOP Gerry over a Court drawn map which could cause real problems for GOP incumbents, most notably Salazar who's district could become more Dem leaning (though not a guarantee, just a possiblity).

Also seems like that FL-15 is a very very narrow Biden seat possibly. Idk why the GOP legislature has an obsession with creating 3 swingy seats in Tampa, rather than a Likely Dem seat and Tossup (as is the current map)

That’s a good question. Does anybody have any insight on the 3 swingy Tampa seat obsession? It doesn’t seem to do much of anything

My 2 theories are they're either really cocky and think on average 3 swing seats would be a net benefit to them, or they want to get competitive seats from somewhere in case of a court challenge, and Tampa is the best place to do that as it doesn't come at the expense of any current Rs and political shifts have been pretty neutral.

[Gass3268]

Anyone know what the BVAP is for 10?

Not good comparatively. One of two major disagreements between the chambers is that the Senate's analysis found the 10th protected, the House does not. This is cause the House wants to remove the White-Black marginal precincts in the west of the county and add in the central White ones, forcing Fl-07 northwards. Finding that it is performing is reverses the situation on the senate map.

Of course the only reason they are doing this is for Fl-07, the House okay'ed districts with similar compositions as performing on their legislative lines.

Is there a way to take the Senate's FL-10 and the House's FL-07 or is it an either or situation?

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone know what the BVAP is for 10?

Not good comparatively. One of two major disagreements between the chambers is that the Senate's analysis found the 10th protected, the House does not. This is cause the House wants to remove the White-Black marginal precincts in the west of the county and add in the central White ones, forcing Fl-07 northwards. Finding that it is performing is reverses the situation on the senate map.

Of course the only reason they are doing this is for Fl-07, the House okay'ed districts with similar compositions as performing on their legislative lines.

Is there a way to take the Senate's FL-10 and the House's FL-07 or is it an either or situation?

That way requires having an ugly arm squiggle down through Orange to grab the downtown Whites and throw them with Lake or some other I4 county, or you split Seminole. The former would be hard to justify under the rules of the road, the latter seems a political non-starter. So it kinda is either-or cause if the central Whites cannot go in either minority seat, then they will likely end up with their nearest neighbor.

Tampa similarly feels like a either-or, since the Tampa-St. Pete water crossing is DOA. Either you pack Dems into two seats, or you will have three seats that vary from marginal leans to Dem favoring.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Bryce__FL/status/1492211022496735239?cxt=HHwWjoC53ZqBs7UpAAA...

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/Bryce__FL/status/1492211022496735239?cxt=HHwWjoC53ZqBs7UpAAA...

Legal arguments aside, why does he want to dismantle that district? Isn’t it just a good excuse to create a Dem pack? Is there any scenario to make all of northern florida safe R? I would think not especially with Duval showing a pretty strong D trend

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Bryce__FL/status/1492211022496735239?cxt=HHwWjoC53ZqBs7UpAAA...

Legal arguments aside, why does he want to dismantle that district? Isn’t it just a good excuse to create a Dem pack? Is there any scenario to make all of northern florida safe R? I would think not especially with Duval showing a pretty strong D trend

Well the only risk is the Tallahassee seat being moved to likely r. The eastern Duval seat only moves like 1 point left from the senate map.  The western seat is only Trump +6 but should be good for Rs for a few cycles.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1492212937095663616?s=20&t=IpHDdM9MTBQW...

So there is two ways this ends right now cause DeSantis's goals are national not Florida-specific: House amasses a similar supermajority that can override like the senate, or the two chambers work out a map and get the conservative court to do what conservative courts like to do and okay previously passed maps.

[lfromnj]

I think its really lazy to say the only point is for MAGA Chad's or laser eyes. The point now is DeSantis wants more seats so that he can run for president and come in with a R house majority rather than a D house majority. Going this hard on FL-05 is interesting though and really does risk the golden goose IMO.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I think its really lazy to say the only point is for MAGA Chad's or laser eyes. The point now is DeSantis wants more seats so that he can run for president and come in with a R house majority .

Interesting, so the Tallahassee district would flip easily (and I assume isn’t trend left very hard) and the two Jacksonville districts wouldn’t be dummy-manders for at least several years?

Agreed, plus he can’t really be that stupid to think he’s winning over any substantial number of voters with the laser eyeing. The majority of GOP primary voters have no idea what redistricting even does, much less be willing to vote on it 3 years later lol
 

[lfromnj]

I think its really lazy to say the only point is for MAGA Chad's or laser eyes. The point now is DeSantis wants more seats so that he can run for president and come in with a R house majority .

Interesting, so the Tallahassee district would flip easily (and I assume isn’t trend left very hard) and the two Jacksonville districts wouldn’t be dummy-manders for at least several years?

Agreed, plus he can’t really be that stupid to think he’s winning over any substantial number of voters with the laser eyeing. The majority of GOP primary voters have no idea what redistricting even does, much less be willing to vote on it 3 years later lol
 

https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-election/2022/02/11/florida-legislature-block-desantis-redistricted-map-proposes-inferior-map/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Breitbart commenters are definetely a bit favorable but overall this is quite behind all the media. Most GOP primary voters care more about the regular policy

Overall the Tallahasee seat is quite weird. It voted D in 2014 of all years and does have ancestral D leanings. The Dem state senator for the district covering it got 70% of the vote in a Biden +6 district but the one in 2020 did the same as Biden. Overall on an average seat for the decade level, DeSantis's map is worth it.

However IMO cutting a black seat is risky. If you don't have FL-05 it gets easier for Democrats to try to pass a true independent commision with more uniform black support. If say 25-30% of  D leaning minorites oppose independent redistricting it gets a decent bit harder to pass any such reform.

[Mr.Phips]

I think its really lazy to say the only point is for MAGA Chad's or laser eyes. The point now is DeSantis wants more seats so that he can run for president and come in with a R house majority .

Interesting, so the Tallahassee district would flip easily (and I assume isn’t trend left very hard) and the two Jacksonville districts wouldn’t be dummy-manders for at least several years?

Agreed, plus he can’t really be that stupid to think he’s winning over any substantial number of voters with the laser eyeing. The majority of GOP primary voters have no idea what redistricting even does, much less be willing to vote on it 3 years later lol
 

https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-election/2022/02/11/florida-legislature-block-desantis-redistricted-map-proposes-inferior-map/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Breitbart commenters are definetely a bit favorable but overall this is quite behind all the media. Most GOP primary voters care more about the regular policy

Overall the Tallahasee seat is quite weird. It voted D in 2014 of all years and does have ancestral D leanings. The Dem state senator for the district covering it got 70% of the vote in a Biden +6 district but the one in 2020 did the same as Biden. Overall on an average seat for the decade level, DeSantis's map is worth it.

However IMO cutting a black seat is risky. If you don't have FL-05 it gets easier for Democrats to try to pass a true independent commision with more uniform black support. If say 25-30% of  D leaning minorites oppose independent redistricting it gets a decent bit harder to pass any such reform.

Yeah even Lawson opposed the Fair Districts Amendment.  If his seat is dismantled, you can bet that he will help any effort to pass an actual independent commission. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Part of the issue too is DeSantis wants to rid FL-05 AND FL-10 of their black functionality. The Senate keeps both and the House keeps on FL-05. Maybe you can get away with eliminating one, but eliminating both is a really bad look, especially since FL-10 at least is a pretty natural COI