Charlottesville Voting Patterns

[Sol]

Like a lot of college towns, Charlottesville has a rural zone of Democratic influence. Not too surprising. But why are there some of these more micro-level patterns of asymmetry?

Biden and most Democrats clean up in northern, southern, and western Albemarle County, which makes sense since they're well connected to the city by I-64, US-250, and US-29 But they also punch well above their weight in northern Nelson County, which is not as well connected by highways, and don't do as well in central Nelson County, which is better connected. Democrats have also been improving a lot in Waynesboro over the mountains -- to what extent are the swings there the result of commuters to Charlottesville?

Meanwhile, Republicans consistently do quite well in southeast Albemarle County and Fluvanna/western Louisa County, which you would expect to be equally Democratic. Fluvanna even has a quasi suburb in Lake Monticello, which may have voted for Biden in 2020 but is usually Republican.

Finally, Greene County shows very little signs of Charlottesville influence, despite being quite close as well. Why do the hippies prefer to live elsewhere?

[heatcharger]

Democrats have also been improving a lot in Waynesboro over the mountains -- to what extent are the swings there the result of commuters to Charlottesville?

Yes. Also double the effect since it’s only about a half-hour from an even bigger institution, JMU.

Finally, Greene County shows very little signs of Charlottesville influence, despite being quite close as well. Why do the hippies prefer to live elsewhere?

If you want hippies you’re gonna have to look further southwest. Greene County is largely Shenandoah hills with an occasional winery and very little infrastructure (bad cell service!). A nice place to visit but hard for a college educated person to live in.

[Tintrlvr]

My impression is that Lake Monticello is an old getaway for the wealthy of Richmond that pre-dates Charlottesville becoming liberal and expanding its influence, thus providing a bulwark against the (south-)eastward expansion of liberal influence from Charlottesville.

Lake Monticello is a gated community, too, and there is definitely a certain type of voter who lives in or especially actively seeks out gated communities.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My impression is that Lake Monticello is an old getaway for the wealthy of Richmond that pre-dates Charlottesville becoming liberal and expanding its influence, thus providing a bulwark against the (south-)eastward expansion of liberal influence from Charlottesville.

Lake Monticello is a gated community, too, and there is definitely a certain type of voter who lives in or especially actively seeks out gated communities.

That would make sense.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Interestingly, when I went to Charlottesville I met a woman who if I recall correctly lives in Orange County (which also borders Albemarle but you did not mention). It seems superficially similar to Greene County: north of the city, fairly Republican but not overwhelmingly so nor trending in a particular direction, has grown a lot in the past few decades after remaining stagnant for well over a century. Orange is however noticeably more Democratic and I wonder if this is because it has a larger population or because of James Madison's Montpelier drawing a larger tourism industry or else.