2020 New York Redistricting

[Gass3268]

If it comes down to it, Democrats need to play Ohio Republican style hardball here. Tit for tat.

[Torie]

The Judge voided the CD and State Senate maps. New maps must be enacted into law with bipartisan support for him to review by April 11. If such maps do not appear on his desk, he hires a special master at state expense to draw them. There might not be time to get it all done given the federal requirements if he has to go the special master route, but such is life.

I assume he will line a special master up in advance, since he isn't going to get his bipartisan maps, just in case he still has jurisdiction on April 11.

[Gass3268]

The Judge voided the CD and State Senate maps. New maps must be enacted into law with bipartisan support for him to review by April 11. If such maps do not appear on his desk, he hires a special master at state expense to draw them. There might not be time to get it all done given the federal requirements if he has to go the the special master route, but such is life.

I assume he will line a special master up in advance, since he isn't going to get his bipartisan maps, just in case he still has jurisdiction on April 11.

Hopefully the higher courts strike down this lower court Republican judge.

[Minnesota Mike]

This opinion will be automatically stayed when the Democrats appeal. This is the end of the beginning not the beginning of the end.

[Torie]

This opinion will be automatically stayed when the Democrats appeal. This is the end of the beginning not the beginning of the end.

No, not unless the higher court orders it. This was an interlocutory decision. What will happen is he will hire his special master on April 11, and proceed, unless the higher court affirmatively issues a stay precluding him from doing that.

[Stuart98]

Personally I'd be pretty okay if we're in the "all the gerrymanders are killed" timeline.

[wbrocks67]

Personally I'd be pretty okay if we're in the "all the gerrymanders are killed" timeline.

Funny though how the GOP gerrymanders are getting away with it and the Dem ones are getting killed.

[Stuart98]

Personally I'd be pretty okay if we're in the "all the gerrymanders are killed" timeline.

Funny though how the GOP gerrymanders are getting away with it and the Dem ones are getting killed.

That's not really true; North Carolina's was killed, Ohio's is probably still going to be killed, Oregon lived, New Mexico is probably going to live.

[Brittain33]

Personally I'd be pretty okay if we're in the "all the gerrymanders are killed" timeline.

Funny though how the GOP gerrymanders are getting away with it and the Dem ones are getting killed.

That's not really true; North Carolina's was killed, Ohio's is probably still going to be killed, Oregon lived, New Mexico is probably going to live.

Texas has entered the chat

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Personally I'd be pretty okay if we're in the "all the gerrymanders are killed" timeline.

Funny though how the GOP gerrymanders are getting away with it and the Dem ones are getting killed.

That's not really true; North Carolina's was killed, Ohio's is probably still going to be killed, Oregon lived, New Mexico is probably going to live.

Texas has entered the chat

Illinois and California have entered the chat

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pretty sure the Dems can get a higher court enjoinment by April 11.

[MillennialModerate]

Lol pretty depressing. Another decade of Dems having little shot of winning the house

[Brittain33]

Personally I'd be pretty okay if we're in the "all the gerrymanders are killed" timeline.

Funny though how the GOP gerrymanders are getting away with it and the Dem ones are getting killed.

That's not really true; North Carolina's was killed, Ohio's is probably still going to be killed, Oregon lived, New Mexico is probably going to live.

Texas has entered the chat

Illinois and California have entered the chat

LOL no

Any court case overturning California’s map would wipe out at least six Republican seats (invalidating commissions.)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol pretty depressing. Another decade of Dems having little shot of winning the house

Even if this map is overturned the median seat will be Biden + 3ish nationally. Certainly not “no chance”

[Nyvin]

Lol pretty depressing. Another decade of Dems having little shot of winning the house

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-house-maps-republican-bias-will-plummet-in-2022-because-of-gerrymandering/

[ProgressiveModerate]

Personally I'd be pretty okay if we're in the "all the gerrymanders are killed" timeline.

Funny though how the GOP gerrymanders are getting away with it and the Dem ones are getting killed.

That's not really true; North Carolina's was killed, Ohio's is probably still going to be killed, Oregon lived, New Mexico is probably going to live.

Texas has entered the chat

Illinois and California have entered the chat

Can we get over this notion that California is somehow a partisan gerrymander? Yes it's not the prettiest of maps, but on net it's a very fair map when you consider California is Biden + 30 state. Most of the "funny" lines were to maximize minority influence and represent COIs that may deal with things such as mountains. Yes the Central Valley config is favorable to Dems but largely because of the way Hispanics are distributed. I would argue the OC config is pretty favorable to Rs as it packs Anaheim and Santa Anna and makes the Asian seat pretty competative. CA-41 is also terribly ugly but still leans R.

Also, if they were truly hackish, why would they have given rural inland Cali like 5 R seats? I agree the commission isn;t perfect and there were some hacks on it, but overall Cali is not a Dem gerry.

[DrScholl]

I'm not sure where there is legal standing for "bipartisan support" in drawing the maps and it's clear that political bias is never a valid reason to strike down maps because it has never held up. You need state law to strike down maps.

[UncleSam]

Personally I'd be pretty okay if we're in the "all the gerrymanders are killed" timeline.

Funny though how the GOP gerrymanders are getting away with it and the Dem ones are getting killed.

That's not really true; North Carolina's was killed, Ohio's is probably still going to be killed, Oregon lived, New Mexico is probably going to live.

Texas has entered the chat

Illinois and California have entered the chat

Can we get over this notion that California is somehow a partisan gerrymander? Yes it's not the prettiest of maps, but on net it's a very fair map when you consider California is Biden + 30 state. Most of the "funny" lines were to maximize minority influence and represent COIs that may deal with things such as mountains. Yes the Central Valley config is favorable to Dems but largely because of the way Hispanics are distributed. I would argue the OC config is pretty favorable to Rs as it packs Anaheim and Santa Anna and makes the Asian seat pretty competative. CA-41 is also terribly ugly but still leans R.

Also, if they were truly hackish, why would they have given rural inland Cali like 5 R seats? I agree the commission isn;t perfect and there were some hacks on it, but overall Cali is not a Dem gerry.

I mean it is objectively a Dem gerrymander in the sense that it gives Dems more seats than a randomly generated map would. However, I agree that it is a soft gerrymander and is nowhere near as bad as Illinois, NC (initial map), NY, or OH. Cali is pretty similar to Texas overall imo

[GALeftist]

Cali is pretty similar to Texas overall imo

So true!

[MillennialModerate]

Lol pretty depressing. Another decade of Dems having little shot of winning the house

Even if this map is overturned the median seat will be Biden + 3ish nationally. Certainly not “no chance”

Biden +3…

Biden won by 5. So that means it’s Republicans +2

Meaning Dems have to win the national popular vote by (like last time) 4-5 to win a bare majority.

For this decade only time they’re going to win the house is in a 2018 type environment

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol pretty depressing. Another decade of Dems having little shot of winning the house

Even if this map is overturned the median seat will be Biden + 3ish nationally. Certainly not “no chance”

Biden +3…

Biden won by 5. So that means it’s Republicans +2

Meaning Dems have to win the national popular vote by (like last time) 4-5 to win a bare majority.

For this decade only time they’re going to win the house is in a 2018 type environment

Haha Happy April Fools

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Lol pretty depressing. Another decade of Dems having little shot of winning the house

Even if this map is overturned the median seat will be Biden + 3ish nationally. Certainly not “no chance”

Biden +3…

Biden won by 5. So that means it’s Republicans +2

Meaning Dems have to win the national popular vote by (like last time) 4-5 to win a bare majority.

For this decade only time they’re going to win the house is in a 2018 type environment

51-47=5?

Also, yeah. The House isn't designed to be proportional. A set of truly fair maps (communities of interest) would have the median seat essentially neutral and perhaps even voting for Trump. A Biden +3 median seat means the nationwide map is gerrymandered for Dems, which makes sense once you realize that states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, NC, and more have all passed Dem "proportionality"-manders.

[Torie]

Lol pretty depressing. Another decade of Dems having little shot of winning the house

Even if this map is overturned the median seat will be Biden + 3ish nationally. Certainly not “no chance”

Biden +3…

Biden won by 5. So that means it’s Republicans +2

Meaning Dems have to win the national popular vote by (like last time) 4-5 to win a bare majority.

For this decade only time they’re going to win the house is in a 2018 type environment

51-47=5?

Also, yeah. The House isn't designed to be proportional. A set of truly fair maps (communities of interest) would have the median seat essentially neutral and perhaps even voting for Trump. A Biden +3 median seat means the nationwide map is gerrymandered for Dems, which makes sense once you realize that states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, NC, and more have all passed Dem "proportionality"-manders.

Getting into an argument as to whether a truly neutral metrics national map, that inter alia tossed subjective COI BS into the trash can, and followed the Muon2 rules or something very close to it, would end up with more Pub seats than what we will end up with, is a truly entropic exercise, and will max out the partisan hack factor in a way that nothing else will. It might add a handful more Pub seats, but even that is somewhat speculative.

The bigger factor causing the Pub redistricting tail wind to largely abate is that its natural geographic advantage hit the doldrums as the suburbs broke bad against it, and rural areas generated more wasted votes for it when drawing lines using neutral metrics, e.g. VA-09.

The Pubs really do need a course correction to expand their base beyond the uneducated white vote that harbors a more masculine view of how the planet should revolve on its axis (that formula works a lot better in Russia but I digress). Which it will of course, since Newtonian physics dictates that parties over time regress to a competitive state. Parties like to spend capital to effect their agenda, which means tossing overboard excess ballast that slows down their envisioned march to utopia.

Thanks heavens that I can swim. Otherwise I would have drowned long ago. This particular barrel of pontification tends to be one of the first to be tossed over the side when the waters get roiled.

[GregTheGreat657]

NY Dems act like “defenders of democracy” yet make this sh***y map. This map NEEDS to be taken down, and it should be unconstitutional

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

NY Dems act like “defenders of democracy” yet make this sh***y map. This map NEEDS to be taken down, and it should be unconstitutional

I agree it should be unconstitutional, but gerrymandering is the game being played in American politics. Democrats have take the high road in the past and it usually just left them locked out of power. So until legislation is passed federally (or in enough states) that prevents it democrats are dumb to not.