2020 New York Redistricting

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's my stab at drawing Long Island to three D districts and one R vote sink. Then expand Staten Island to Park Slope and draw three R sinks Upstate and you probably have the map and thus a 22D-4R map.


Blue: Biden 54.68-Trump 43.92
Green: Biden 57.9-Trump 40.79
Purple: Biden 41.89-Trump 56.71
Red: Biden 55.42-Trump 43.3

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not sure what that territory has to do with not locking up NY-11...NY-11 doesn't have any of it already.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if a strong 23-3 gerrymander in NY will push FL Republicans into a stronger gerrymander on their side like the DeSantis map. Doubtless NY Republicans and FL Democrats will sue each map in state court saying it's an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. Then ~10 House seats and quite possibly control of the House would depend on how each court rules.

No such thing exists.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1487932813055823873?cxt=HHwWgsC4vd...
Basically brooklyn progressive whites and then mixed ideological minorities and lastly moderate Dems in Staten island

This is good news for Brittney Ramos Debarros

https://twitter.com/britt4congress/status/1362407321121423362?s=21

She referred to herself as Afro-Latina!

ENDORSED

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does anyone see a chance the map stands? I can’t

Uh, are you the slightest bit familiar with the New York Court of Appeals?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does anyone see a chance the map stands? I can’t

Uh, are you the slightest bit familiar with the New York Court of Appeals?

Nope… enlighten me

Every member was appointed by Cuomo except one who was by Hochul and thus is stacked with some of the biggest hacks you can imagine. It might be the single most partisan state high court in the country.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Except there are rules about how the lines should be drawn (cinyc listed them above). Is the Dem argument that those rules only apply to the commission and not to the legislature?

We do not yet know, but I would not be surprised if it does cause the map flagrantly violates the fairness and in some areas geographic sensibility provisions. Justification could only come through a failure of jurisdiction. Other emergency bodies in other states usually have the power to ignore everything that came before them - usually in the name of fairness, minority opportunity, and most importantly, speed - so if the Leg is the De Facto emergency authority then New Yorkers should define a new and better law to strip it of this loophole.

Are you agreeing that that is the Dem argument, and that you think it might actually be successful, with the Dems knowing the court, because otherwise the Dems with such a brazenly lawless map, are at once reckless and stupid.

On this one, I think the Dems may win the battle but lose the war, because this will be a textbook example of a party gaming the system, and going lawless, and giving the finger to the voters, and that story will be told by the Pubs for a very long time. When one party totally controls all 3 branches of government, in this day and age, the rule of law ceases to be something one can rely upon. So to survive, it's back to pay to play.

To add to this zero-sum analysis:

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1489663746704392192?s=20&t=_sZpBb4t2cTUwu_q...

"OMG THIS PERSON IS A HYPOCRITE" type "gotchas" aren't really the epic burns people seem to think they are, especially when in regards to someone who isn't an elected official and has no reason to be popular or consistent in the public eye.

The Republicans are obviously going to litigate this stuff on pure partisanship and no consistent principles, and thus we should as well.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does anyone see a chance the map stands? I can’t

Uh, are you the slightest bit familiar with the New York Court of Appeals?

Nope… enlighten me

Every member was appointed by Cuomo except one who was by Hochul and thus is stacked with some of the biggest hacks you can imagine. It might be the single most partisan state high court in the country.

What do you base this on other than surmise? I am not saying you are wrong, but just because of who appoints

6/7 appointed by a total machine hack (and the last one also from a hack) in a state dominated by machine hack politics.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pretty sure the Dems can get a higher court enjoinment by April 11.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Although it'll be appealed either way, keep an eye on the decision from the New York supreme Court. Of the nine active justices on the Fourth Division, five were appointed by Cuomo (D), one was appointed by Paterson (D), and three were appointed by Pataki (R). Unless all three Pataki appointees are on the panel, Democrats should really hope to win this case; otherwise, they could be in trouble in the NYCoA, where Cuomo has 6/7 appointees.

Why on Earth would the Democrats be in trouble with the NYCoA and it's all D makeup?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1512146038420869137

A Paterson appointment.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What I find somewhat ridiculous about this is that the Dems passed a really ugly gerrymander, but they could easily have passed a pretty map serving the same purpose, for example

In which a few seats could be vulnerable in a bad year (18th and 20th are Biden+8, 19th is Biden+13, 22nd is Biden+11) but on the other hand the 23rd would be a potential pickup (only Trump+2).

Something like that surely wouldn't have been prone to a court strike-down and would generally have functioned as a 22-4 map anyway- but instead the Dems decided to go for ridiculous stuff like the 24th's narrow snake shape, the 19th's protrusions into Utica and Vestal, etc, all for the relatively small gain of incumbents being shored up a bit more. May backfire if the courts do feel inclined to strike it down.

Right, a normal person looking at this map would say it is fair. In fact tbh I would say it is within the realm of fair - anything that is close to maximally compact that follows county lines I’m ok with, and the legislature gets to decide which party the map advantages within those bounds. NYS should pass the most D-favored map possible that looks fairly clean, just like OH should pass the most R favored map under those same restrictions.

As a Dem, this is what part of what gets me annoyed about our gerrymanders.

They’re often unnecessarily messy (IL, NY, MD, MA, ect) when the GOP is able to create very effective gerrymanders that are harder to argue against because they’re clean (FL) and it’s not necessarily because of Geography

That's mostly geography-based, drawing clean looking R gerrymanders is much easier than clean looking D ones. Also while the MA map is messy looking it's not really a gerrymander, any fair and clean looking map there would still result in a 9-0 D majority, so who knows what those people were thinking.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So Democrats need to have fair maps because Democrats need to play by the rules, but Republicans are free to gerrymander all they want because they don't believe in rules, great.

Exactly, if your opposition to gerrymandering is sincere and not a political posture.

This is like a Susan Collins/Joe Manchin sort of take.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So Democrats need to have fair maps because Democrats need to play by the rules, but Republicans are free to gerrymander all they want because they don't believe in rules, great.

Exactly, if your opposition to gerrymandering is sincere and not a political posture.

This is like a Susan Collins/Joe Manchin sort of take.

I mean obviously we should strike down Republican maps too, but if you're opposed to gerrymandering you should celebrate this ruling even if it costs Democrats a couple of seats.

No either all gerrymanders get struck down or none do, having only one party's get struck down is even more unfair than gerrymandering as a whole.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So Democrats need to have fair maps because Democrats need to play by the rules, but Republicans are free to gerrymander all they want because they don't believe in rules, great.

Exactly, if your opposition to gerrymandering is sincere and not a political posture.

This is like a Susan Collins/Joe Manchin sort of take.

I mean obviously we should strike down Republican maps too, but if you're opposed to gerrymandering you should celebrate this ruling even if it costs Democrats a couple of seats.

No either all gerrymanders get struck down or none do, having only one party's get struck down is even more unfair than gerrymandering as a whole.

Republicans have had seats struck down too this cycle--it's not like NY is the only place where this has happened.

Yes but if Republicans are absolute f[inks] ing trash (which they are) and follow am authoritarian sociopathic piece of sh!t (which they do) then anything that would hurt them is good.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So I drew a map thinking of if I were drawing as a "nonpartisan" special master but am still a Democratic partisan (which it sounds is exactly what the guy drawing it is) and the results were...actually still pretty good for the Democrats:



The 20th is probably the biggest issue, but arguing that all of the western border with Vermont is a community of interest isn't really that insane based on geography and roads.

The Long Island seats aren't really that great for Democrats admittedly, but Suozzi could definitely hold the second at least (and no reason for him to not run again), the third was about Biden 50 - Trump 47 so it would definitely flip in a R+3 generic ballot but also would flip back the next D House victory.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So I drew a map thinking of if I were drawing as a "nonpartisan" special master but am still a Democratic partisan (which it sounds is exactly what the guy drawing it is) and the results were...actually still pretty good for the Democrats:



The 20th is probably the biggest issue, but arguing that all of the western border with Vermont is a community of interest isn't really that insane based on geography and roads.

The Long Island seats aren't really that great for Democrats admittedly, but Suozzi could definitely hold the second at least (and no reason for him to not run again), the third was about Biden 50 - Trump 47 so it would definitely flip in a R+3 generic ballot but also would flip back the next D House victory.

I would argue the biggest issue is the lack of a metro Rochester seat even though metro Rochester is basically perfect size for a district. Very interesting results though.

The 24th basically is one although I got a bit sloppy there due to how I was drawing it, for a more clear-cut Rochester metro seat here's a map:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/HenryRosoff/status/1521509138026713089?cxt=HHwWgsC-6f2fvp0qA...
rofl even Jeffries isn't asking the Special Master to draw the legislature maps.

https://newyork.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=cd&propA=current_2012&propB=unitymap_20211123&selected=-73.596,40.632#%26map=6.95/41.449/-72.918

Here's the unity maps, relatively least changey with the Nadler arm etc. Overall NY01 is a bit more R, NY02 is a bit more D, NY03 and NY04 swap places with NY04 becoming competitive and Malliotakis seat becomes 2 points more R.

Wow. An incumbent advocating for an extreme least change map. If this were really about representation, why not an Orthodox/Asian seat in south Brooklyn?

Those aren't VRA protected groups.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Worth noting that any type of mandate for an Orthodox seat would be blatantly unconstitutional, and even taking religious identity into account drawing a map could be subject to a lawsuit. Although it's probably moot because any south Brooklyn Republican district would include a lot more than just Orthodox, and they aren't a Census category.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Worth noting that any type of mandate for an Orthodox seat would be blatantly unconstitutional, and even taking religious identity into account drawing a map could be subject to a lawsuit. Although it's probably moot because any south Brooklyn Republican district would include a lot more than just Orthodox, and they aren't a Census category.

That is a dubious claim at best.

"Orthodox Jews" define themselves are a maternal-determined ethnic group ["You can eat a ham sandwich on Yom Kipper, but, if your mother was Jewish you're Jewish!"]  There simply isn't Constitutional prohibition of extending the VRA to ethnic groups.

Second, the key elements of the rational for the VRA apply to Orthodox Jews, just as Blacks in the South, Orthodox Jews have different voting patterns, are subject to animosity based on their ethnicity,  and, have been "cracked" to ensure that no Orthodox Jew has a reasonable chance of winning even though their population is reasonably concentrated to form such a district.

Nor, has anyone ever objected to creating "Hispanic" districts on Constitution grounds, when there is a strong correlation between electing an "Hispanic," and, electing a Roman Catholic.

It is a novel claim, but, don't be so quick to dismiss it.

Not all Hispanics are Catholic. Orthodox Jews are by definition a religious group, there's not "Jewish" category on the Census even under ethnicity and the category here is based around being a type of religious Jew, not by ethnicity. It doesn't include non-practicing Jews or atheists or Jews who converted to another religion or even practicing Reform Jews.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Worth noting that any type of mandate for an Orthodox seat would be blatantly unconstitutional, and even taking religious identity into account drawing a map could be subject to a lawsuit. Although it's probably moot because any south Brooklyn Republican district would include a lot more than just Orthodox, and they aren't a Census category.

That is a dubious claim at best.

"Orthodox Jews" define themselves are a maternal-determined ethnic group ["You can eat a ham sandwich on Yom Kipper, but, if your mother was Jewish you're Jewish!"]  There simply isn't Constitutional prohibition of extending the VRA to ethnic groups.

Second, the key elements of the rational for the VRA apply to Orthodox Jews, just as Blacks in the South, Orthodox Jews have different voting patterns, are subject to animosity based on their ethnicity,  and, have been "cracked" to ensure that no Orthodox Jew has a reasonable chance of winning even though their population is reasonably concentrated to form such a district.

Nor, has anyone ever objected to creating "Hispanic" districts on Constitution grounds, when there is a strong correlation between electing an "Hispanic," and, electing a Roman Catholic.

It is a novel claim, but, don't be so quick to dismiss it.

Not all Hispanics are Catholic. Orthodox Jews are by definition a religious group, there's not "Jewish" category on the Census even under ethnicity and the category here is based around being a type of religious Jew, not by ethnicity. It doesn't include non-practicing Jews or atheists or Jews who converted to another religion or even practicing Reform Jews.

Except, as I noted above, Orthodox Jews consider anyone who had a "Jewish" mother to be a "Jew," even if they are Roman Catholic. So, your point is counter-factual.

Which legally means nothing. I can start an "emo religion" and claim anyone with "e" in their surname belongs to it but that would be meaningless to anyone who isn't me. Also "Jewish" is not a recognized ethnicity per the Census using this definition nor any other.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Again, you reassert a claim that is simply false. Class action suits feature "damaged classes" that aren't identified in the census all the time. If Orthodox Jews are entitled to relief, a claim that I have noted is novel and has never been litigated, but, does seem to have merit potentially, then showing a relief map exists is not a real problem. The various Jewish synogogues know who their members are, and, could provide a list without a problem, for instance.

Further, we all know which neighborhoods are Orthodox Jewish. When you see a bunch of the men wearing the same very antiquated Polish fashion you know. The Courts know this.  Everybody knows this.

Your position is not merely self-serving and wrong. It is immoral. What you are arguing is that employers could discriminate against any class not identified in the census, for instance.

They already can,  in most states you can be fired for being gay without any legal consequence for the employer for example. 

That is no longer true after Bostock v. Clayton County.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't know if the subtext of this is related to redistricting, but the fight over who will be chief justice of the Court of Appeals in NYS has turned vicious. The Dems in the State Senate packed th Judiciary Committee with more progressive Dems, so that it is 13D-6R, and then killed the nomination of LaSalle, the moderate Hispanic, 10-9. The Dem Senate leader won't let it go to the floor. Hochul is threatening to sue to force it to the floor. It is threatening to upset budget negotiations.

Both SCOTUS and the high courts of the states are getting ever more politicized. It is beginning to remind me of what is going on in Israel. Folks are even bothering with trying to put lipstick on the pig anymore. They want partisan hacks, and they want them now.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/01/democrats-reject-hochuls-pick-hector-lasalle.html

Peter: Hey Lois, did you hear about the fight between Hochul and the State Senate Democrats over the new appointment to the Chief Justice for the New York Court of Appeals? The Dems in the State Senate packed the Judiciary Committee with more progressive Dems, so that it is 13D-6R, and then killed the nomination of LaSalle, the moderate Hispanic, 10-9. The Dem Senate leader won't let it go to the floor. Hochul is threatening to sue to force it to the floor and It is threatening to upset budget negotiations!

Lois: Oh Peter, you know I don't pay attention to politics.

Peter: (Cutaway to Peter and Lois in bed)
Lois: (yawning) I'm tired, let's just go to sleep.

Peter: (excitedly) But Lois, this is the biggest political scandal since Watergate!

Lois: (sarcastically) Oh, well in that case, I'll definitely stay awake for it.

Peter: (Cutaway to Peter and Lois in bed, with Peter holding a flashlight under his chin)
Peter: And that's when Hochul said, "I'll see you in court, Senate Dems!"

Lois: (sarcastically) Oh, that's so thrilling, I can hardly contain myself.

Peter: (disappointed) Oh, come on Lois, it's a real nail-biter.

Lois: (yawning) I think I'll stick to my nail-biting thrillers, like counting sheep.

Peter: (deflated) Oh, okay. (Lights out)

(Cutaway to Peter in his sleep, with the sound of snoring and a sheep jumping over a fence in the background)

Peter: (in his sleep) And that's when Hochul said, "I'll see you in court, Senate Dems!"

(Fade to black)

Announcer: "Family Guy: Bringing you the most exciting political scandals, one snore at a time."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the Democrats just need to play it a bit more conservative, then the best thing to do is still pair Ithaca with Syracuse and not split up the Albany area like that map above. One R seat on Long Island and four R seats Upstate probably works. Maybe a Lean D but only Lean seat based around Staten Island.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Isn't there historical precedence for a Staten Island-Manhattan district? It seems like it might be easy to uphold if the other NYC districts are kept tidy.

I'm pretty sure no but it can be easily put into a pretty Safe D seat by just linking it to Park Slope.