2020 New York Redistricting

[Nyvin]

If New York goes down to 26 districts rather than 27,  then Suffolk county will be very close to two districts in size.   Wouldn't it just make more sense to make a western and eastern district in Suffolk?    The western one could be slight tilt-D if you take in the right parts of Nassau.

Making the two Nassau districts Lean-D would be easy I would think,  especially given how northern Nassau is trending.

[Nyvin]

Another interesting question: who gets cut upstate?

Katko seems like the obvious answer; it's a little difficult considering his cult following (and the general propensity of Syracuse to elect Republicans downballot) but if you give him Ithaca it's better. Perhaps toss in Utica too so that Brindisi will get a seat even if he loses reelection.

The one complication I can foresee is the 25th district, which will have to expand. Louise Slaughter had a close shave in 2014, and the district will get more Republican if it grows. Democrats might would want to give it firmer numbers.

My assumption was always that sheer geography ensured NY-23 would get cut, its the only district to border both PA and Lake Ontario and its next to a bunch of seats that also have an expand.

NY-23's land area will have a district one way or another.   NY-22 is the one that's easiest to divide up between eastern upstate and western upstate.

[Nyvin]

How would this be for an Upstate map?   Only 4 safe R districts.  Uses 2016 pop estimates.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf42bda7-4cd7-4a7a-a7b4-c8eac662ffd2



2012-2016 PVI's:

NY16- D+14.13 (south westchester)
NY17- R+0.51 (Rockland/Putman/Orange)
NY18- D+2.69 (Ulster/Dutchess)
NY19- R+7.65 (Leftovers...?)
NY20- D+6.7 (Albany)
NY21- R+4.17 (Adirondacks)
NY22- R+6.62 (Binghamton/Elmira)
NY23- D+6.8 (Syracuse/Ithaca)
NY24- D+6.85 (Rochester)
NY25- D+8.67 (Buffalo
NY26- R+11.8 (Buffalo/Rochester exurbs, rurals)

Since most of upstate north of Rockland/Westchester swung to Trump, it'd be expected most of the districts are a little more Republican than the PVI lets on.  

The main thing seems to be that uniting Tompkins with Syracuse is crucial.  NY-17 and NY-18 (southeast) would both be competitive, but probably winnable for Democrats.

[Nyvin]

There's also the consideration that any House district that has all of Albany in it is going to be hard for the GOP to win in all but the worst of conditions, due to the inelasticity of the county. (Though this becomes less true the smaller the % in population of the CD comes from said county)

In 2014 Paul Tonko was returned to office with 62% of the vote. I think we can afford to unpack his district.

I doubt the NY Dems would go for it with the way Upstate NY is trending recently.   When you draw safe districts you want some kind of buffer in place in case of a bad election.

[Nyvin]

is there any reason Democrats wouldn't gerrymander next year?  It doesn't make any sense to unilaterally not do so when half of the republican states are doing so.  A big state like this can counteract some of that.

the geography of the state is terrible for gerrymandering. you could easily make the staten island district democratic, but the current lines upstate are basically the best democrats can do without risking a massive dummymander. suffolk co’s districts are also pretty untouchable unless you do some really weird lines

The only real big improvement to make Upstate for Democrats is uniting Ithaca with Syracuse.   The rest of the seats are all pretty much set in place for the most part (without doing anything crazy anyway).

I'd see NY-11 becoming a safe D district as a no brainer if the Dem legislature has any say at all in what happens.

Interestingly - If NY does lose two seats, that actually REALLY helps Max Rose's seat (NY-11) become even more safe since it'll have to go futher into Kings, where there's pretty much no Republican votes whatsoever past the Orthodox Jewish areas.

[Nyvin]

While there isn't much room to gerrymander the Congressional map anyway, there's definitely a lot of room to gerrymander the state legislative map (first de-gerrymander, and then gerrymander in the Democrats' favor) and ensure the Republicans can never come near controlling the State Senate again, which will I think be the top priority for the state legislative Democrats. Of course, even if they don't win a super-majority, a commission-drawn map will mean the end of any Republican chances at winning the State Senate again (just looking at that map, anyone should be able to see why).

Watch all the blue avatars here claim that a normal Rochester seat, a normal Syracuse seat, and a normal Ulster County seat makes for a "Democratic Gerrymander".  

[Nyvin]

Is there any valid reason why NY Dems wouldn't link Syracuse with Ithaca?  I'm not really seeing this as difficult or ugly.   It actually works out nice and gives a Utica district kinda sorta similar to the current NY-22.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b248e051-4d27-44b1-9bcc-faa6287d4382

This map only really has 3 safe R seats,  although in practice Elise Stefanik would be safe anyway.

[Nyvin]

It's harder to cut Stefanik because her seat is in a corner of the state.

If I had to guess, something like this is probably what they have in mind



https://davesredistricting.org/join/74452af6-1f10-4754-b435-0710131e4185

Basically combining the Republican parts of the current 21, 22, and 24 seats, and then maximizing the R sink around Buffalo.   There's only two safe R districts in this map (21 and 24), but there's also 4 swing seats.   I don't think it's possible to limit Republicans to two seats and make everything else at least likely D so it is risky.

I'm actually of the opinion they don't really need to go crazy with the Long Island seats just because it's trending D pretty well anyway, so in a few cycles all 3 or 4 seats should be held by Dems in a normal map.   If they draw an R sink it might end up being a dummymander sooner than most realize.

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/25edb0f1-16fc-4b6b-8b60-134974e8c594
Thoughts on (particularly) Upstate in this map?

Waste of Broome IMO - I don't think Rochester to Ithaca makes much sense, but this is how I'd do it -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bb84424e-fc0b-465e-a285-ebf0db2a7b7c

[Nyvin]

Here's a good one




https://davesredistricting.org/join/ca953178-4081-427f-9043-643890e5c5ee

Edit - I'm loving my "West Vermont" district, lol

[Nyvin]

I haven't played around with NY yet, but is there anything that could wipe out Republicans on Long Island? A Republican vote sink on Long Island seems like a wasted opportunity with NYC so close.

Look at the results for Suozzi and Rice in 2020 - very good, but with high Republican floors. Drawing 4 Dem districts on LI is likely a dummymander.

My thought was that there are wasted votes in NYC. Pull the Long Island districts into NYC. Use tentacles if necessary. Basically, some bacon strips going East/West. If one has to go into Manhattan, so be it.

NY-1 and NY-2 were both more than 47% Biden as is right now, and the area isn't getting better for Republicans....is that really needed?  I think maybe just draw plain districts in Long Island and let the natural trend take care of the rest.   The GOP might hold on in 2022 but later in the decade they'll be almost guaranteed to flip at some point.

NY-11 is a different story - Gerrymander the hell out of it.

[Nyvin]

Really one would think Florida would be the stronger case if the compactness, COI, not favoring a party, etc guidelines mattered since the state already has court precedent to go by:

-Give Pinellas it's own seat and don't cross the Tampa Bay to cut out St Petersburg

-Have some kind of AA seat based out of Jacksonville

-Give Hispanics and AA's their own seats in Orange/Osceola

-No crazy baconstrip districts in the southeast

While in NY there's really not much of anything to go by since the law is new.   I'm expecting both states to mostly ignore what they can to maximize seats.   FLGOP is probably expecting to fly by with their new judges and NY Dems don't really have anything to define what the guidelines actually mean.

[Nyvin]

Looks like the Democrats drew 3 R sinks in upstate instead of 2.

Broome to Ulster to Schenectady makes for kind of a weird district though.

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/543265da-88d8-4369-8c80-28c131885afa
Thoughts on this map?

-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.

Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac

The chops aren't all that exceptional. If anything, they are not that many, especially when compared to the 2003-2013 map (just one look at the district of John E. Sweeney will tell you why), and just about as numerous as the 2013-2023 one.

Back then, there was no "no unduly law," and you have not answered the question as to why you drew the lines the way you drew them other than to screw the already underrepresented Pubs out of more seats. If you don't have talking points, you don't have much of a defense.

Well, by respecting jurisdictional lines and compactness, while geography may favor the Democrats, it does not unduly favor the Democrats.

[Nyvin]

They added shapefiles on the website

Plan A
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bdd3d852-55a1-4226-bef1-5669362357d7


Plan B
https://davesredistricting.org/join/98541de6-2862-4f03-9953-a5ea98755df2

Surprised the Dems didn't really go for the kill on NY-11, they left it Trump+6.2%, which should be easily winnable for Malliotakis.   The Republican map even add some of the Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods to make it Trump+10.8%.  

After that the biggest difference in the two maps is Long Island, Republicans basically made a vote sink out of NY-4, while Dems try to pack Republicans as much as possible into NY-2.

Katko really doesn't get any love from anyone, lol.

Looking it over now, wouldn't it be possible Legislative R's would accept plan A?   The Democrats can kinda hold NY-11 and maybe even NY-1 hostage in that NY-2 can be further R packed and NY-11 can obviously be made safe D if the map was a complete D gerrymander.   At least this map leaves the Republicans those two seats (NY-11 and NY-1) that are winnable.

[Nyvin]

We'll see what the legislature comes up with, but neither of these maps are that bad for the Republicans. They'd have a decent chance of 17-9 on the Dem map and 16-10 on the GOP map. Katko is probably finally toast in 2024, but I think he'd win by 5+ in 2022. He outperformed Trump by 20, so a Biden +17 isn't that bad for him in an R wave year. 1, 18, and 19 would all be very close. I think that Rs would probably come away with 2 out of the 3. Fairly sure they'd hold the LI seat, and one of the Hudson seats, with a better chance for Jones' seat than Maloney's.

I think that a GOP NYC seat makes it into the final map, either based in South Brooklyn or SI. Then an LI GOP seat, then 3 upstate GOP seats. 21 Biden/5 Trump, essentially map A but with Jones and Maloney being shored up further.

Katko went from 60.6% in 2016 to 52.6% in 2018 to 53.1% in 2020.   The days of him outperforming the top of the ticket by those kind of margins are long gone.  A Biden+17 district isn't going to be winnable.

[Nyvin]

We'll see what the legislature comes up with, but neither of these maps are that bad for the Republicans. They'd have a decent chance of 17-9 on the Dem map and 16-10 on the GOP map. Katko is probably finally toast in 2024, but I think he'd win by 5+ in 2022. He outperformed Trump by 20, so a Biden +17 isn't that bad for him in an R wave year. 1, 18, and 19 would all be very close. I think that Rs would probably come away with 2 out of the 3. Fairly sure they'd hold the LI seat, and one of the Hudson seats, with a better chance for Jones' seat than Maloney's.

I think that a GOP NYC seat makes it into the final map, either based in South Brooklyn or SI. Then an LI GOP seat, then 3 upstate GOP seats. 21 Biden/5 Trump, essentially map A but with Jones and Maloney being shored up further.

Katko went from 60.6% in 2016 to 52.6% in 2018 to 53.1% in 2020.   The days of him outperforming the top of the ticket by those kind of margins are long gone.  A Biden+17 district isn't going to be winnable.

It'll be winnable in 2022. Katko would've won in this district in 2022. He overperformed Trump by 20 points in 2020, so hypothetically he could've won any district up to Biden +20. That'll go down quite a bit by 2024, which is why he'll lose in 2024, but in a GOP friendly environment, he's no worse than a tossup in 2022.

In 2016, he outperformed Trump by 26. In 2018 it's hard to determine, but if there was a generic R vs. Generic D federal race he likely would've outperformed by around 20. In 2020 he outperformed Trump by 20. In 2022, it might be 17. In 2024, it might be 14. These are still massive outperformances. Polarization is ever increasing but Katko is the best electoral fit for anyone in any district in the country. There's not much of a reason he'd lose all of his crossover appeal, which while declining, was still strong enough for him to win a district that blue in a moderately good year for Democrats.

That's kind of an odd way to measure overperformance, but anyway, Republicans don't currently have any seats that are anymore than Biden+12,  there seems to be a hard cut off around Biden+10 or Biden+11.   You can't just carry the overperformance over directly like that, it doesn't work.

Also ticket splitting has been in decline for a while now and it's an entirely new district with a lot more hard progressive areas.   Your math here just doesn't work for a variety of reasons.

[Nyvin]

FWIW:
https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1480675503451389953

So the 4 R seats would be three upstate and one in Long Island?   The four swing seats would be one in Long Island, NY-11, and two in upstate (assuming the southeastern area)?

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/CatieEdmondson/status/1482029647068082176?s=20

Well that seat is an auto-pickup now.   I'm starting to think the 10 Republicans who voted for impeachment really just did it to try to score brownie points with Dems (besides Cheney obviously).

[Nyvin]

I guess the Dems assume the NYS high court is hack city, and the NYS Constitutional  provision that maps should not unduly favor one party is a dead letter. They are also assuming that the Dems in the state senate other than the false flag Simcha Felder perhaps, will vote unanimously for the map.

It becomes ever more clear to me that humans should not draw maps. The species is just too flawed to handle it. Black boxes should based on tight algorithms.

It's not hard to imagine applying the Ohio SC's dissent ruling onto the New York map adjusted for state laws and come up with the same legal BS philosophies they used over there (Proportionality not mentioned anywhere so don't use it, what really is a competitive district, these words are so mysterious we should just ignore them, etc).

[Nyvin]

Considering all the Republican judges in NC and OH (minus O'Connor) have ruled in favor of keeping the gerrymandered maps that were made in their states, I find it extremely difficult to believe the  Appeals Court in NY, with 7 dem judges, will strike down the maps the legislature made.

Stranger things have happened, but history isn't on the Republicans side for this.  They need to convince 4 of the 7 Democratic Judges to strike down a Democratic made map.  

Can you really believe if North Carolina or Ohio had 7 Republican Judges the Democrats would've had any chance in hell?  Probably not.

[Nyvin]

Lol pretty depressing. Another decade of Dems having little shot of winning the house

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-house-maps-republican-bias-will-plummet-in-2022-because-of-gerrymandering/

[Nyvin]

Personally I'd be pretty okay if we're in the "all the gerrymanders are killed" timeline.

Funny though how the GOP gerrymanders are getting away with it and the Dem ones are getting killed.

That's not really true; North Carolina's was killed, Ohio's is probably still going to be killed, Oregon lived, New Mexico is probably going to live.

Texas has entered the chat

Illinois and California have entered the chat

Can we get over this notion that California is somehow a partisan gerrymander? Yes it's not the prettiest of maps, but on net it's a very fair map when you consider California is Biden + 30 state. Most of the "funny" lines were to maximize minority influence and represent COIs that may deal with things such as mountains. Yes the Central Valley config is favorable to Dems but largely because of the way Hispanics are distributed. I would argue the OC config is pretty favorable to Rs as it packs Anaheim and Santa Anna and makes the Asian seat pretty competative. CA-41 is also terribly ugly but still leans R.

Also, if they were truly hackish, why would they have given rural inland Cali like 5 R seats? I agree the commission isn;t perfect and there were some hacks on it, but overall Cali is not a Dem gerry.

THANK you. The commission gets hate from both Democrats because the Democrats know without it they could gerrymander away and the GOP over an imagined Democratic bias, but our state's commission really did do a decent job with the maps. And to any Republican who thinks CA pAsSeD a DeMoCrAtIc GeRrYmAnDeR, be happy either way. If you think the commission is bad, I want you to just imagine the 52-0 Democrats would easily be able to draw otherwise. You decide: Would you rather have a fair map that might have some moderate bias for both parties in certain areas, and funky boundaries, or a brutal Democratic gerrymander that gives them all 52 seats? Yeah, that's what I thought. The commission is your biggest friend out here, even if it did hypothetically pass a slightly Democratic-biased map, because the alternative is so much worse for you. The blue posters here are pretty arrogant, ungrateful and entitled - this is the largest state and has the most districts by far, and it's solidly Democratic controlled. You ought to be satisfied with any commission that doesn't pass a 52-0.

Plus all they'd have to do to excuse the gerrymander is give the vice versa of Utah's mantra of "maximizing the voices of rural Utah with all 4 congressional districts"

"We feel it's right to maximize the voices of our city dwellers since so many in California live in the cities"

[Nyvin]

So Democrats need to have fair maps because Democrats need to play by the rules, but Republicans are free to gerrymander all they want because they don't believe in rules, great.

[Nyvin]

So the only two hard gerrymanders the Dems have left really are Illinois and Oregon.   Everything else is pretty mild.