2020 New York Redistricting

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1285190840265183234?s=20

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1285190850566381569?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ZachReports/status/1453448834143641600?s=20

[Gass3268]

Both versions of NY-22 look like it was drawn to bring back Anthony Brindisi.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/zackfinknews/status/1480558109282246659?s=21

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/CatieEdmondson/status/1482029647068082176?s=20

[Gass3268]

Looks like they are going to shoot for 23-3.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1486472463932440577?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1486491863322439680?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1491795714174685187?s=20&t=5JQjWnOBVV0...

[Gass3268]

If it comes down to it, Democrats need to play Ohio Republican style hardball here. Tit for tat.

[Gass3268]

The Judge voided the CD and State Senate maps. New maps must be enacted into law with bipartisan support for him to review by April 11. If such maps do not appear on his desk, he hires a special master at state expense to draw them. There might not be time to get it all done given the federal requirements if he has to go the the special master route, but such is life.

I assume he will line a special master up in advance, since he isn't going to get his bipartisan maps, just in case he still has jurisdiction on April 11.

Hopefully the higher courts strike down this lower court Republican judge.

[Gass3268]

Pathetic! After what happened in Florida, Ohio, Utah, and Wisconsin. Republicans go for the jugular and Democrats just roll over.

[Gass3268]

The state legislature and Gov should just ignore the courts and pass their own maps like Ohio. Tell the court to enforce their ruling themselves.

[Gass3268]

What’s impeachment rules in New York?

[Gass3268]

The one good thing for Democrats, is that the guy who is drawing the NY maps is the same dude who drew the PA map.

Oh really? Thank god.
Ok, I take back what I said lol

So he'll be drawing what should be the final map ?

Not necessarily, as the Steuben County judge will get to actually pick the final map but will have to use this dude for consultation.  

The two questions are now,

Is Cervas biased towards Democrats or biased towards partisan fairness?.  If its the latter than a fairly natural map should take place.

If he is biased towards Democrats, how far can he skew the map?

OMG, they are actually sending this back to the crazy Steuben County judge? The State Legislature and Governor should 100% ignore this or try to get a different case thrown into a different county.

[Gass3268]

The Democrats should just ignore this legally meritless ruling and print primary ballots for the legislature map’s district lines

Make the Judges enforce their own ruling!

[Gass3268]

New York Dems should really just pull an Ohio GOP and ignore the courts. Its what all the cool kids are doing now.

[Gass3268]

New York Dems should really just pull an Ohio GOP and ignore the courts. Its what all the cool kids are doing now.

Except, the Court ruled the IRC has the power to redistrict, and, the legislature does not. That is a very hard ruling to ignore.

The Ohio Supreme Court blinked, apparently, for the Congressional map, and, federal courts intervened on the legislative ones.

I don't foresee the Federal Courts not deferring to the New York Court of Appeals.

Let ‘em enforce it

I mean, I know I was saying this earlier, but if we totally ignore the courts, republicans will do it too. Plus we might get a d favorable map anyway from the special master. Also, now that I think of it, McCarthy could refuse to seat the democrats in  gerrymandered seats

I mean, Republicans already do.

[Gass3268]

SP Maloney has announced that he’s going to switch districts in an attempt to take out Mondaire Jones. Terrible.

Jones could challenge Bowman and they are doublebunked.

[Gass3268]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.

Look at her campaign policy positions, the work she's done in Albany, and who she's worked for. It's more typical run of the mill CPC positions rather than full on Squad.

[Gass3268]

Here's my attempt to harmonize the Hochulmander with the map passed by the special master, while also taking into affect the reshuffling of priorities that occurred in response to that map, some of which I listed above. For example, NY-18 was made and remains a Ulster county seat - cause that's Ryan's base - and NY-17 is drawn to both be sensible but also insert a lot of new voters and make the seat bluer - to specifically get rid of Lawler. Colors are the 2020 election results:








The linchpin of much of the downstate portion of the map is NY-10, which once again heads deep into Brooklyn., but not in a crazy way like the first map. And there is now a justification one can defend, and its a justification that all but forces NY-11 to go up towards red hook:



Also it's a reason that has the ironic effect based on 2022 results of removing a bunch of progressive and Niou areas even though the Asian VAP goes way up. This is cause the Brooklyn Asians were less progressive and did not vote for her based on precinct results, her areas besides NYC Chinatown were Park Slope and the downtown Brooklyn. Those regions are mainly tossed in NY-11.

The partisanship in selected districts, going from Hochulmander -> Court Remap -> This Map. As you'll see, the 2022 results drove actions in certain seats:

NY01: Biden+10.8, Biden+0.2, Biden+8.5

NY03: Biden+14.2, Biden+8.1, Biden+15.5

NY04: Biden+12.1, Biden+14.5, Biden+18.1

NY11: Biden+9.5, Trump+7.6, Biden+11.9

NY17: Biden+13.3, Biden+10.1, Biden+17.8

NY18: Biden+8.2, Biden+8.3, Biden+12.2

NY19: Biden+10, Biden+4.6, Biden+9.6

NY22: Biden+18.1, Biden+7.4, Biden+13.1

Any guess on how this map would have played out in 2022?

[Gass3268]

Given what Republicans did in North Carolina, hopefully they do the right thing.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MondaireJones/status/1734668262913212709?s=20

[Gass3268]

Lol

https://twitter.com/MrSantosNY/status/1734675608737612045?s=20

[Gass3268]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

Until there is a national ban on gerrymandering (which I strongly support) any New York congressional map that isn’t a strong Democratic gerrymander is awful.  Anyway, beyond that, I genuinely believe the 2022 NY redistricting case was wrongly decided (thankfully, that decision has been effectively reversed).  So I take issue with it being imposed at all even beyond partisan considerations.    I’d also argue that it is a soft-Republican gerrymander rather than a fair map which is pretty ridiculous to have for New York.

The New York State Counstition has proviosons banning gerrymandering; if it's outrageous for the republican to subvert those provions in Ohio and Utath why is it ok for democrats to do in New York ?

Why do Democrats always have to be held to a higher standard than Republicans?

[Gass3268]

Just feels weird that they would go through this whole dog and pony show just to make a few minor adjustments.