2020 New York Redistricting

[Stuart98]

Fair NY map:


NYC Inset:


NY01—R+5
NY02—D+2
NY03—R+8
NY04—D+32 (55% black)
NY05—D+22 (40% asian by CVAP, 47% by total population)
NY06—D+41 (60% black)
NY07—R+5
NY08—D+3 (Going into this I assumed there'd be enough republicans for both an R-leaning southern Brooklyn district as well as an R-leaning Staten Island district, but nope, even if I give the latter the GOP enclave around the naval yard.)
NY09—D+44 (43% black by CVAP, 47% by total population)
NY10—D+27 (38% hispanic by CVAP, 47% by total population)
NY11—D+34
NY12—D+35
NY13—D+44 (55% hispanic by CVAP, 62% by total population)
NY14—D+20 (MajMin district; by CVAP it's 43% white, 21% hispanic, 28% black; by total population it's 37% white, 25% hispanic, 31% black)
NY15—D+37 (52% hispanic by CVAP, 58% by total population
NY16—D+8
NY17—R+2
NY18—D+6
NY19—R+2
NY20—D+2
NY21—R+4
NY22—D+6
NY23—R+4
NY24—D+7
NY25—R+11

[Stuart98]

This is a super Dem gerrymandered 22-3 map I made which in this scenario NY loses 2 seats instead of one. One GOP sink in the SW part of upstate NY and 2 slightly R seats in LI.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/33577eb8-1599-4c16-a75c-4d2008e6bf20

That Syracuse district should easily re-elect Katko right? Or does he live in another district on this map?

[Stuart98]

Since the Rs are going to push the VRA, Dems should as well. Push some of Queens, Brooklyn into LI districts and look into the idea of bacon stripping NY-1, NY-2 and getting BOTH seats instead of packing the GOP into a very red 2nd. Dems have a better chance at 23-3 this way than against Katko who isn't losing with a Dem President.

That's pretty hard unless you want to knock out a black VRA seat that can objectively be drawn (current NY-5). Otherwise a bacon stripping would result in just a bunch of Biden + 3ish seats, some of which may have gone for Trump in 2016 adn would be unreliable at best.

Working on a map right now with a plurality black (40%) NY-05. It's 30% Republican, so it should perform as a black VRA seat because black voters should constitute a majority in the primary.

[Stuart98]

A proposal so modest there will never be proposed a proposal more modest in the history of modest proposals:



2012/2016 PVI:


President 2020 Results:

[Stuart98]

Next week's draft maps are the Independent commission's, which obviously are DoA.

[Stuart98]

Bipartisan commissions don't work folks.

(There's a distinction to be made here between bipartisan commissions and non-partisan commissions, which have flaws but seem to be more effective)

These maps are going nowhere.

[Stuart98]

Personally I'd be pretty okay if we're in the "all the gerrymanders are killed" timeline.

[Stuart98]

Personally I'd be pretty okay if we're in the "all the gerrymanders are killed" timeline.

Funny though how the GOP gerrymanders are getting away with it and the Dem ones are getting killed.

That's not really true; North Carolina's was killed, Ohio's is probably still going to be killed, Oregon lived, New Mexico is probably going to live.

[Stuart98]

In other news...

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1667302230788038658
No more judge shopping for NY Republicans. If the NYCoA gives the legislature another shot (big if), the NYGOP will have to sue in one of four very liberal counties to get the map overturned.

Surely this violates equal protection, right?

[Stuart98]

Well this was ****ing pointless.

[Stuart98]

Man, I just suck at making predictions don't I?

Well usually we predict that rational actors will do things that make sense, I don't think anyone predicted that Democrats would commit themselves to this fight for over a year only to decide on the eve of victory to just go home without doing anything substantial.

[Stuart98]

New York map as many county splits as the adopted map that went 23-3 in 2022 congress




Note that all three of the competitive long island seats on this map are bluer than on the adopted map, this business of "we can't make 1 bluer because then we'd make 3 redder" was a bunch of nonsense.