2020 New York Redistricting

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1516198719166853124

[GALeftist]

Weren't oral arguments today? Did anyone watch, and if so what were the takeaways?

[lfromnj]

Weren't oral arguments today? Did anyone watch, and if so what were the takeaways?

Enjoy. Skimmed through it, hard to tell.

[MillennialModerate]

I thought it was a foregone conclusion Dems would win in court but like everything else related to decisions on the electoral system - sounds like it’s going the other way

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I thought it was a foregone conclusion Dems would win in court but like everything else related to decisions on the electoral system - sounds like it’s going the other way

Hopefully this is like your prediction in GA

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1517258325943103489

[Roll Roons]

Start spreading the news...

[Minnesota Mike]

Was not an entire win for Republicans, judges gave the legislature until April 30 to draw maps instead of going immediately to a special master. All of this will be appealed.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The New York court system is kind of strange, but anyways this isn't the final court, the Court of Appeals.

[Sol]

Nice!

[GALeftist]

3-2 decision; Centra (Pataki – R), Curran (Cuomo – D), Lindley (Paterson – D) in the majority, Whalen (Cuomo – D) and Winslow (Cuomo – D) in the minority. (Curran also would have chucked the legislative maps, saying that the process itself was invalid.) I think there's a real chance that the CoA agrees with this ruling, although it obviously doesn't have any Pataki (or Paterson) appointees. Probably not above 50%, though. IDK really.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1517271516144189442

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1517271516144189442

I question that. Election dates can be changed. I also doubt the Court of Appeals will stay all of this. If it does not stay, then the question is whether the Dems will submit a new map. This is a classic example of pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. They should have ceded a couple of more seats to the Pubs, but as hogs they did not. NYS all too often, attracts the dumbest and most cynical and most corrupt. The intellectual class in the state is too busy engaged in changing the nation and the world to bother with something that is degrading as the cesspool that it NYS governance. I do know based on my buddy lawyer system, that when it comes to drafting legislation, its lawyers can't draft their way out of a paper bag. Even the lawyers seem to be patronage positions for the dumbs.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1517271516144189442

I question that. Election dates can be changed. I also doubt the Court of Appeals will stay all of this. If it does not stay, then the question is whether the Dems will submit a new map. This is a classic example of pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. They should have ceded a couple of more seats to the Pubs, but as hogs they did not. NYS all too often, attracts the dumbest and most cynical and most corrupt. The intellectual class in the state is too busy engaged in changing the nation and the world to bother with something that is degrading as the cesspool that it NYS governance. I do know based on my buddy lawyer system, that when it comes to drafting legislation, its lawyers can't draft their way out of a paper bag. Even the lawyers seem to be patronage positions for the dumbs.

1. The. Filing. Deadline. Has. Already. Passed
2. Even if your correct, Dems will just rig the commission like the GOP did in OH, so a "Fair Map" isn't happening regardless. Sorry Torie

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1517271516144189442

I question that. Election dates can be changed. I also doubt the Court of Appeals will stay all of this. If it does not stay, then the question is whether the Dems will submit a new map. This is a classic example of pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. They should have ceded a couple of more seats to the Pubs, but as hogs they did not. NYS all too often, attracts the dumbest and most cynical and most corrupt. The intellectual class in the state is too busy engaged in changing the nation and the world to bother with something that is degrading as the cesspool that it NYS governance. I do know based on my buddy lawyer system, that when it comes to drafting legislation, its lawyers can't draft their way out of a paper bag. Even the lawyers seem to be patronage positions for the dumbs.

New York used to have non federal primaries in September, including one very badly timed one on 9/11/01, but it seems they recently moved everything to June. It would have been easier to move the June primary to September had that not happened.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1517271516144189442

I question that. Election dates can be changed. I also doubt the Court of Appeals will stay all of this. If it does not stay, then the question is whether the Dems will submit a new map. This is a classic example of pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. They should have ceded a couple of more seats to the Pubs, but as hogs they did not. NYS all too often, attracts the dumbest and most cynical and most corrupt. The intellectual class in the state is too busy engaged in changing the nation and the world to bother with something that is degrading as the cesspool that it NYS governance. I do know based on my buddy lawyer system, that when it comes to drafting legislation, its lawyers can't draft their way out of a paper bag. Even the lawyers seem to be patronage positions for the dumbs.

1. The. Filing. Deadline. Has. Already. Passed
2. Even if your correct, Dems will just rig the commission like the GOP did in OH, so a "Fair Map" isn't happening regardless. Sorry Torie

Rigged commission or not, the Constitution in NYS says you cannot deliberately F the other party through gerrymandering. So sorry about that kind sir. The Commission is no longer relevant. What is relevant is how partisan the Dem friendly courts are. I suspect the judges will not want to soil their reputations by twisting the clear provisions and intent of the Constitution into a pretzel. We shall see.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do you think Dems will pull a Ohio on this and just try to stall out the timeline for as long as possible and hope for a favorable ruling from the court of appeals? It seems like they have no real reason not to.

[MillennialModerate]

So the court of appeals is entirely made up of Dems….

What are the odds this thing is struck down?

It would be so typical that the Dems strike down their own map while Republicans allow theirs to stand

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Do you think Dems will pull a Ohio on this and just try to stall out the timeline for as long as possible and hope for a favorable ruling from the court of appeals? It seems like they have no real reason not to.

Agreed.  Until we have a national ban on gerrymandering; the Democrats should go scorched earth whenever possible with this stuff.  What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

[patzer]

What I find somewhat ridiculous about this is that the Dems passed a really ugly gerrymander, but they could easily have passed a pretty map serving the same purpose, for example

In which a few seats could be vulnerable in a bad year (18th and 20th are Biden+8, 19th is Biden+13, 22nd is Biden+11) but on the other hand the 23rd would be a potential pickup (only Trump+2).

Something like that surely wouldn't have been prone to a court strike-down and would generally have functioned as a 22-4 map anyway- but instead the Dems decided to go for ridiculous stuff like the 24th's narrow snake shape, the 19th's protrusions into Utica and Vestal, etc, all for the relatively small gain of incumbents being shored up a bit more. May backfire if the courts do feel inclined to strike it down.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ReporterMarina/status/1517512193092296706

case on Tuesday.

[UncleSam]

What I find somewhat ridiculous about this is that the Dems passed a really ugly gerrymander, but they could easily have passed a pretty map serving the same purpose, for example

In which a few seats could be vulnerable in a bad year (18th and 20th are Biden+8, 19th is Biden+13, 22nd is Biden+11) but on the other hand the 23rd would be a potential pickup (only Trump+2).

Something like that surely wouldn't have been prone to a court strike-down and would generally have functioned as a 22-4 map anyway- but instead the Dems decided to go for ridiculous stuff like the 24th's narrow snake shape, the 19th's protrusions into Utica and Vestal, etc, all for the relatively small gain of incumbents being shored up a bit more. May backfire if the courts do feel inclined to strike it down.

Right, a normal person looking at this map would say it is fair. In fact tbh I would say it is within the realm of fair - anything that is close to maximally compact that follows county lines I’m ok with, and the legislature gets to decide which party the map advantages within those bounds. NYS should pass the most D-favored map possible that looks fairly clean, just like OH should pass the most R favored map under those same restrictions.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What I find somewhat ridiculous about this is that the Dems passed a really ugly gerrymander, but they could easily have passed a pretty map serving the same purpose, for example

In which a few seats could be vulnerable in a bad year (18th and 20th are Biden+8, 19th is Biden+13, 22nd is Biden+11) but on the other hand the 23rd would be a potential pickup (only Trump+2).

Something like that surely wouldn't have been prone to a court strike-down and would generally have functioned as a 22-4 map anyway- but instead the Dems decided to go for ridiculous stuff like the 24th's narrow snake shape, the 19th's protrusions into Utica and Vestal, etc, all for the relatively small gain of incumbents being shored up a bit more. May backfire if the courts do feel inclined to strike it down.

Right, a normal person looking at this map would say it is fair. In fact tbh I would say it is within the realm of fair - anything that is close to maximally compact that follows county lines I’m ok with, and the legislature gets to decide which party the map advantages within those bounds. NYS should pass the most D-favored map possible that looks fairly clean, just like OH should pass the most R favored map under those same restrictions.

As a Dem, this is what part of what gets me annoyed about our gerrymanders.

They’re often unnecessarily messy (IL, NY, MD, MA, ect) when the GOP is able to create very effective gerrymanders that are harder to argue against because they’re clean (FL) and it’s not necessarily because of Geography

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What I find somewhat ridiculous about this is that the Dems passed a really ugly gerrymander, but they could easily have passed a pretty map serving the same purpose, for example

In which a few seats could be vulnerable in a bad year (18th and 20th are Biden+8, 19th is Biden+13, 22nd is Biden+11) but on the other hand the 23rd would be a potential pickup (only Trump+2).

Something like that surely wouldn't have been prone to a court strike-down and would generally have functioned as a 22-4 map anyway- but instead the Dems decided to go for ridiculous stuff like the 24th's narrow snake shape, the 19th's protrusions into Utica and Vestal, etc, all for the relatively small gain of incumbents being shored up a bit more. May backfire if the courts do feel inclined to strike it down.

Right, a normal person looking at this map would say it is fair. In fact tbh I would say it is within the realm of fair - anything that is close to maximally compact that follows county lines I’m ok with, and the legislature gets to decide which party the map advantages within those bounds. NYS should pass the most D-favored map possible that looks fairly clean, just like OH should pass the most R favored map under those same restrictions.

As a Dem, this is what part of what gets me annoyed about our gerrymanders.

They’re often unnecessarily messy (IL, NY, MD, MA, ect) when the GOP is able to create very effective gerrymanders that are harder to argue against because they’re clean (FL) and it’s not necessarily because of Geography

That's mostly geography-based, drawing clean looking R gerrymanders is much easier than clean looking D ones. Also while the MA map is messy looking it's not really a gerrymander, any fair and clean looking map there would still result in a 9-0 D majority, so who knows what those people were thinking.

[lfromnj]

What I find somewhat ridiculous about this is that the Dems passed a really ugly gerrymander, but they could easily have passed a pretty map serving the same purpose, for example

In which a few seats could be vulnerable in a bad year (18th and 20th are Biden+8, 19th is Biden+13, 22nd is Biden+11) but on the other hand the 23rd would be a potential pickup (only Trump+2).

Something like that surely wouldn't have been prone to a court strike-down and would generally have functioned as a 22-4 map anyway- but instead the Dems decided to go for ridiculous stuff like the 24th's narrow snake shape, the 19th's protrusions into Utica and Vestal, etc, all for the relatively small gain of incumbents being shored up a bit more. May backfire if the courts do feel inclined to strike it down.

Right, a normal person looking at this map would say it is fair. In fact tbh I would say it is within the realm of fair - anything that is close to maximally compact that follows county lines I’m ok with, and the legislature gets to decide which party the map advantages within those bounds. NYS should pass the most D-favored map possible that looks fairly clean, just like OH should pass the most R favored map under those same restrictions.

As a Dem, this is what part of what gets me annoyed about our gerrymanders.

They’re often unnecessarily messy (IL, NY, MD, MA, ect) when the GOP is able to create very effective gerrymanders that are harder to argue against because they’re clean (FL) and it’s not necessarily because of Geography

I mean Ohio had pretty ugly maps. The simple answer is DeSantis as a super powerful governor rather than a state legislator is effectively able to do whatever he wants with the maps as all the incumbents can't cry upto their local legislators without drawing the ire of the most powerful governor in the entire nation. Roy Barnes did the same in 2001 and he managed to bully out a 30 year speaker of the house