2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 168434 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1475 on: August 17, 2020, 07:21:17 AM »
Cook Political Report moves SC-Sen from Likely to Lean R.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/south-carolina-senate/south-carolina-senate-moves-likely-lean-republican
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Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1476 on: August 17, 2020, 08:50:47 AM »
Quote from: Lucas Whitefur on August 16, 2020, 09:06:21 AM
NBC news/WSJ has the GCB at only D+5. It's clearly tightening, which is very worrying. Trump is winning the messaging war.
Suburbs are coming back for downballot republicans, because they want a check for Biden if he were to become president; just like they did in 2016 with Clinton.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1477 on: August 17, 2020, 08:57:26 AM »

And they still haven't moved CO out of tossup.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1478 on: August 17, 2020, 09:09:02 AM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on August 17, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Quote from: Lucas Whitefur on August 16, 2020, 09:06:21 AM
NBC news/WSJ has the GCB at only D+5. It's clearly tightening, which is very worrying. Trump is winning the messaging war.
Suburbs are coming back for downballot republicans, because they want a check for Biden if he were to become president; just like they did in 2016 with Clinton.

Most polls show plurality of Americans thinking Trump will win.
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1479 on: August 17, 2020, 11:11:46 AM »
« Edited: August 17, 2020, 11:15:46 AM by VARepublican »
MO-02 (PPP)

Schupp 45%
Wagner 42%

Favorabilities:
Schupp 27/18
Wagner 38/36

http://files.www.thehousemajoritypac.com/research/MO-02_poll.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1480 on: August 17, 2020, 11:18:17 AM »

MO-02 feels like VA-10. Schupp isn't going to beat Wagner like Wexton did to Comstock, but it feels like one of those suburban counties that is rapidly shifting left where the R congresswoman is still acting like she's gonna hold on when the trends are clearly showing something different.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1481 on: August 17, 2020, 11:19:17 AM »

And Civiqs, much like YouGov, has been steady at 7-9 points, also for *months* now.

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Not to mention the 538 average has been 7-8 all year long as well. So 6 isn't too far off, but anything 5 and below would yes, be an outlier.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1482 on: August 17, 2020, 11:24:39 AM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on August 17, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Quote from: Lucas Whitefur on August 16, 2020, 09:06:21 AM
NBC news/WSJ has the GCB at only D+5. It's clearly tightening, which is very worrying. Trump is winning the messaging war.
Suburbs are coming back for downballot republicans, because they want a check for Biden if he were to become president; just like they did in 2016 with Clinton.

Except this poll showed a +1 increase for Democrats in the GCB over last month’s poll. Sorry.
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1483 on: August 17, 2020, 11:28:13 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 17, 2020, 11:19:17 AM

And Civiqs, much like YouGov, has been steady at 7-9 points, also for *months* now.

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Not to mention the 538 average has been 7-8 all year long as well. So 6 isn't too far off, but anything 5 and below would yes, be an outlier.

I thought you didn’t like online polls.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1484 on: August 17, 2020, 11:37:55 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on August 17, 2020, 11:28:13 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 17, 2020, 11:19:17 AM

And Civiqs, much like YouGov, has been steady at 7-9 points, also for *months* now.

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Not to mention the 538 average has been 7-8 all year long as well. So 6 isn't too far off, but anything 5 and below would yes, be an outlier.

I thought you didn’t like online polls.


I don't like sh**tty online polls. YouGov and Civiqs aren't the best, but they are better than junk like Change.
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #1485 on: August 17, 2020, 02:36:33 PM »

Generic ballot: R 46/45 (Biden leads 48/46)
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Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« Reply #1486 on: August 17, 2020, 02:38:00 PM »
I wouldn't be surprised. This race is a tossup and Biden could likely carry this district too.
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #1487 on: August 17, 2020, 02:44:22 PM »
Quote from: LCameronOR on August 17, 2020, 02:38:00 PM
I wouldn't be surprised. This race is a tossup and Biden could likely carry this district too.

Wagner is going to do better than a Generic R. She overperformed Hawley by 7 point IIRC.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #1488 on: August 17, 2020, 03:12:13 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on August 17, 2020, 02:44:22 PM
Quote from: LCameronOR on August 17, 2020, 02:38:00 PM
I wouldn't be surprised. This race is a tossup and Biden could likely carry this district too.

Wagner is going to do better than a Generic R. She overperformed Hawley by 7 point IIRC.


Wagner is gonna lose
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1489 on: August 17, 2020, 04:14:12 PM »
YouGov: GCB D+11

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jupxi93uza/20200817_yahoo_coronavirus_crosstabs.pdf
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #1490 on: August 17, 2020, 04:34:21 PM »
Wow, the DCCC has reserved $5.5 MILLION in ads to protect Unbeatable Titan Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s seat. Link

Reminds me of this wbrocks post:

Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 05, 2020, 02:55:39 PM
Not to mention, there's no way Daines is +6 right now if the GOP is spending $6M just this month in Montana. Same with Georgia.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #1491 on: August 17, 2020, 07:46:35 PM »
« Edited: August 17, 2020, 07:53:46 PM by RussFeingoldWasRobbed »
Why are dems wasting money on FL-26. It's basically Safe D.
 The GOP could nominate Abraham Lincoln's ghost and they wouldn't win this district in an environment like this(and no trumpbots, the generic ballot is not tightening.)
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #1492 on: August 18, 2020, 05:42:47 AM »
NY-01
Global Strategy Group (D)

Zeldin 47%
Goroff 42%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200818_NY.png
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #1493 on: August 18, 2020, 05:48:53 AM »
RMG Research

NJ-02

Van Drew (R, inc.) 42%
Kennedy (D) 39%

Trump approval: 45/52
Van Drew favorability: 36/32
Kennedy favorability: 35/29

https://www.termlimits.com/njcd2-poll/

WA-03

Herrera Beutler (R, inc.) 44%
Long (D) 40%

Trump approval: 45/51
Herrera Beutler favorability: 44/32
Long favorability: 34/29

https://www.termlimits.com/wacd3-poll/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1494 on: August 18, 2020, 05:49:23 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on August 17, 2020, 04:34:21 PM
Wow, the DCCC has reserved $5.5 MILLION in ads to protect Unbeatable Titan Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s seat. Link

Reminds me of this wbrocks post:

Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 05, 2020, 02:55:39 PM
Not to mention, there's no way Daines is +6 right now if the GOP is spending $6M just this month in Montana. Same with Georgia.


It's mutually beneficial for the Ds though. High turnout in FL-26 and Powell winning helps Biden.
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #1495 on: August 18, 2020, 07:25:34 AM »
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1496 on: August 18, 2020, 08:01:08 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on August 18, 2020, 07:25:34 AM


Club for Growth = (R) poll?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1497 on: August 18, 2020, 08:51:24 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 18, 2020, 08:01:08 AM
Quote from: VARepublican on August 18, 2020, 07:25:34 AM


Club for Growth = (R) poll?

Yep, so Rosendale being up 6 in an R internal is not that great, especially considering people were freaking out that Emerson allegedly had Rs up over 6 in that poll a few weeks ago
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1498 on: August 18, 2020, 08:52:38 AM »
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Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« Reply #1499 on: August 18, 2020, 10:56:46 AM »
Can we please get polls that AREN'T internals?
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