2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

MN-07 should be up near the top and TX-07 replaces entirely with IA-02. CA-21 shouldn’t be in the top 20, and instead PA-01 or TX-10/21/31

PA-01 is a question mark. The one recruit who had promise dropped out, so now who knows who the winner of the primary will be, we'll have to see how much $$ they raise too bc right now it's not looking good for the Dems. It's a presidential year though so that could help offset Fitz's advantage

Scott Wallace was one of the single worst disaster artist candidates in 2018 and he still nearly won. Since as of now the GCB indicates 2020 to be as Democratic friendly as 2018, that seat would be in my Top 20 for that reason alone.

[UncleSam]

MN-07 should be up near the top and TX-07 replaces entirely with IA-02. CA-21 shouldn’t be in the top 20, and instead PA-01 or TX-10/21/31

PA-01 is a question mark. The one recruit who had promise dropped out, so now who knows who the winner of the primary will be, we'll have to see how much $$ they raise too bc right now it's not looking good for the Dems. It's a presidential year though so that could help offset Fitz's advantage

Scott Wallace was one of the single worst disaster artist candidates in 2018 and he still nearly won. Since as of now the GCB indicates 2020 to be as Democratic friendly as 2018, that seat would be in my Top 20 for that reason alone.

It’s hard to believe that 2020 will be as lopsided a house vote as 2018. Even going off of the GCB at this point in the 2018 cycle Dems generally had double digit leads. Still, top 20 seems reasonable even with the big recruiting question mark for Dems there.

[Virginiá]

It’s hard to believe that 2020 will be as lopsided a house vote as 2018. Even going off of the GCB at this point in the 2018 cycle Dems generally had double digit leads. Still, top 20 seems reasonable even with the big recruiting question mark for Dems there.

With the economy imploding and Trump completely bumbling through a pandemic, seems very possible that Republicans will have a bad year.

[Nyvin]

MN-07 should be up near the top and TX-07 replaces entirely with IA-02. CA-21 shouldn’t be in the top 20, and instead PA-01 or TX-10/21/31

PA-01 is a question mark. The one recruit who had promise dropped out, so now who knows who the winner of the primary will be, we'll have to see how much $$ they raise too bc right now it's not looking good for the Dems. It's a presidential year though so that could help offset Fitz's advantage

Scott Wallace was one of the single worst disaster artist candidates in 2018 and he still nearly won. Since as of now the GCB indicates 2020 to be as Democratic friendly as 2018, that seat would be in my Top 20 for that reason alone.

It’s hard to believe that 2020 will be as lopsided a house vote as 2018. Even going off of the GCB at this point in the 2018 cycle Dems generally had double digit leads. Still, top 20 seems reasonable even with the big recruiting question mark for Dems there.

I think 2020 is looking to be "worse" for Republicans than 2018.

[UncleSam]

It’s hard to believe that 2020 will be as lopsided a house vote as 2018. Even going off of the GCB at this point in the 2018 cycle Dems generally had double digit leads. Still, top 20 seems reasonable even with the big recruiting question mark for Dems there.

With the economy imploding and Trump completely bumbling through a pandemic, seems very possible that Republicans will have a bad year.

Oh it is extremely likely Republicans will have a bad year. There’s a lot of room between bad and 2018-esque wipeout though

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It’s hard to believe that 2020 will be as lopsided a house vote as 2018. Even going off of the GCB at this point in the 2018 cycle Dems generally had double digit leads. Still, top 20 seems reasonable even with the big recruiting question mark for Dems there.

With the economy imploding and Trump completely bumbling through a pandemic, seems very possible that Republicans will have a bad year.

Oh it is extremely likely Republicans will have a bad year. There’s a lot of room between bad and 2018-esque wipeout though

There’s a lot of room for it to get worse too

[Landslide Lyndon]

It’s hard to believe that 2020 will be as lopsided a house vote as 2018. Even going off of the GCB at this point in the 2018 cycle Dems generally had double digit leads. Still, top 20 seems reasonable even with the big recruiting question mark for Dems there.

With the economy imploding and Trump completely bumbling through a pandemic, seems very possible that Republicans will have a bad year.

Oh it is extremely likely Republicans will have a bad year. There’s a lot of room between bad and 2018-esque wipeout though

2018 was hardly an unprecedented calamity for Republicans. They gained seats in the senate and lost only seven governorships.

[Virginiá]

Oh it is extremely likely Republicans will have a bad year. There’s a lot of room between bad and 2018-esque wipeout though

What would you consider an average 'bad' result for Republicans though? Because depending on how you look at 2018, it could easily be described as underwhelming. Democrats got large vote shares in states / nationally but translation to actual seats was not always that great due to clustering and gerrymandering.

Trump's general unpopularity, a botched pandemic response and a possible recession seems like more than enough to send Republicans to the cleaners 2018-style, if not worse. Not to say it's guaranteed, but the way things are playing out, it's definitely in the cards, imo.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1240854707364605953?s=19

[Lisa's voting Biden]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1240854707364605953?s=19

Having a GOP internal showing you down isn't good. I would say this seat is probably going to stay DEM for at least another cycle. Would most likely flip back in 2022 with a DEM president.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/FordOConnell/status/1240645182552453124

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The DCCC our raised the NRCC in February. Look at that CoH gap 👀

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1241083790967046144?s=21

[Person Man]

National Journal's Hotline has released its "House Power Rankings" of the 20 seats most likely to flip:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/705331?unlock=T6IBGP736CBYJRW3

1. TX-23
2. OK-05
3. SC-01
4. NM-02
5. NY-22
6. GA-07
7. IA-01
8. GA-06
9. MN-07
10. IA-03
11. ME-02
12. TX-24
13. NY-11
14. CA-21
15. PA-10
16. TX-07
17. NJ-03
18. IL-13
19. CA-48
20. TX-22

How .any Ds and Rs is that?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

National Journal's Hotline has released its "House Power Rankings" of the 20 seats most likely to flip:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/705331?unlock=T6IBGP736CBYJRW3

1. TX-23
2. OK-05
3. SC-01
4. NM-02
5. NY-22
6. GA-07
7. IA-01
8. GA-06
9. MN-07
10. IA-03
11. ME-02
12. TX-24
13. NY-11
14. CA-21
15. PA-10
16. TX-07
17. NJ-03
18. IL-13
19. CA-48
20. TX-22

How .any Ds and Rs is that?

I believe there's 6 Rs and 14 Ds on that list

[Person Man]

National Journal's Hotline has released its "House Power Rankings" of the 20 seats most likely to flip:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/705331?unlock=T6IBGP736CBYJRW3

1. TX-23
2. OK-05
3. SC-01
4. NM-02
5. NY-22
6. GA-07
7. IA-01
8. GA-06
9. MN-07
10. IA-03
11. ME-02
12. TX-24
13. NY-11
14. CA-21
15. PA-10
16. TX-07
17. NJ-03
18. IL-13
19. CA-48
20. TX-22

How .any Ds and Rs is that?

I believe there's 6 Rs and 14 Ds on that list

Outside of a landslide, the max is one party netting that. Democrats can still gain in something short of a 2008 situation and Republicans can take the house in an absolute most extreme situation.  This would give 214 to Rs and 241 to Ds.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Don't think the latest Cook ratings (3/19) have been mentioned here yet. This is a map of the latest update. I marked the tossups with the incumbent party's tossup colors:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1dd5

Changes from February 28 Update
CA-21: Lean D -> Tossup
CA-25: Likely D -> Lean D
CA-45: Lean D -> Likely D
CA-49: Likely D -> Safe D

[wbrocks67]

Don't think the latest Cook ratings (3/19) have been mentioned here yet. This is a map of the latest update. I marked the tossups with the incumbent party's tossup colors:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1dd5

Changes from February 28 Update
CA-21: Lean D -> Tossup
CA-25: Likely D -> Lean D
CA-45: Lean D -> Likely D
CA-49: Likely D -> Safe D

Moving CA-21 to tossup is a straight up joke.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult
3/20-3/22

Dems 46, Reps 38

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/200386_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs.pdf

[wbrocks67]

YouGov actually has it pretty high, despite Trump's approval bump:

Dems 47
Reps 38

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/bfiid7tfh3/econTabReport.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov actually has it pretty high, despite Trump's approval bump:

Dems 47
Reps 38

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/bfiid7tfh3/econTabReport.pdf

Yeah, I think the bump is mainly attributed to an uptick in Democrats approving of him, but probably aren't going to vote for the Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS still looks good with Bollier, Dems still are gonna make Marshall or Kobach sweat in a close race

[Gracile]

Cook made House rating changes in 10 districts today:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-fall-outlook-shifts-10-districts

FL-26: Likely D to Lean D
IL-06: Lean D to Likely D
IL-14: Toss Up to Lean D
MI-08: Toss Up to Lean D
MO-02: Likely R to Lean R
NY-19: Toss Up to Lean D
NC-08: Solid R to Likely R
NC-09: Likely R to Solid R
TX-31: Lean R to Likely R
UT-04: Toss Up to Lean D

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Cook made House rating changes in 10 districts today:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-fall-outlook-shifts-10-districts

FL-26: Likely D to Lean D
IL-06: Lean D to Likely D
IL-14: Toss Up to Lean D
MI-08: Toss Up to Lean D
MO-02: Likely R to Lean R
NY-19: Toss Up to Lean D
NC-08: Solid R to Likely R
NC-09: Likely R to Solid R
TX-31: Lean R to Likely R
UT-04: Toss Up to Lean D

A lot of these are odd. Democrats aren’t getting stronger in some suburban areaas and simultaneously worse in others that are demographically similar

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Cook made House rating changes in 10 districts today:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-fall-outlook-shifts-10-districts

FL-26: Likely D to Lean D
IL-06: Lean D to Likely D
IL-14: Toss Up to Lean D
MI-08: Toss Up to Lean D
MO-02: Likely R to Lean R
NY-19: Toss Up to Lean D
NC-08: Solid R to Likely R
NC-09: Likely R to Solid R
TX-31: Lean R to Likely R
UT-04: Toss Up to Lean D

A lot of these are odd. Democrats aren’t getting stronger in some suburban areaas and simultaneously worse in others that are demographically similar

HUH?

[Bidenworth2020]

Cook made House rating changes in 10 districts today:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-fall-outlook-shifts-10-districts

FL-26: Likely D to Lean D
IL-06: Lean D to Likely D
IL-14: Toss Up to Lean D
MI-08: Toss Up to Lean D
MO-02: Likely R to Lean R
NY-19: Toss Up to Lean D
NC-08: Solid R to Likely R
NC-09: Likely R to Solid R
TX-31: Lean R to Likely R
UT-04: Toss Up to Lean D

A lot of these are odd. Democrats aren’t getting stronger in some suburban areaas and simultaneously worse in others that are demographically similar

I think a lot of these movements are more based on the fact that the virus has basically frozen campaigning, given a lot of vulnerable frontliners a boost.