2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Bidenworth2020]

Inside Elections made 13 House rating changes (12 in favor of Democrats, 1 in favor of Republicans):

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-november-26-2019

AZ-06 (Schweikert): Safe R -> Likely R
CA-25 (VACANT): Likely D -> Solid D
IL-06 (Casten): Lean D -> Likely D
IL-13 (Davis): Tilt R -> Tossup
IA-02 (Loebsack, OPEN): Tossup -> Tilt D
IA-04 (King): Lean R -> Tilt R
MI-08 (Slotkin): Tilt D -> Lean D
MI-11 (Stevens): Lean D -> Likely D
MN-01 (Hagedorn): Lean R -> Tilt R
MN-02 (Craig): Lean D -> Likely D
MN-07 (Peterson): Lean D -> Tilt D
NH-01 (Pappas): Lean D -> Likely D
VA-02 (Luria): Tilt D -> Lean D

I wonder whats the explanation for CA25? Guess it must be the primary date, Dems more or less unification around a candidate, and the sh**tty shape of the GOP field.

Not that Cenk is going to come close to winning, but I do think that he might be able to pull away enough from Smith so as to pull her below 50. All it would take is 5-10% of the vote.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

For impeachment : 45%
Against : 50%

Thats just the 2016 numbers. Decent news for dems, actually.

[Bidenworth2020]

Impeachment is at 45% in Kendra Horn’s district according to the President’s own pollster.

Well, 45% is not a majority, nor even a plurality.

Clinton lost the seat 54-40, which was better than Obama.

[Bidenworth2020]

Impeachment is at 45% in Kendra Horn’s district according to the President’s own pollster.

Well, 45% is not a majority, nor even a plurality.

Clinton lost the seat 54-40, which was better than Obama.

Yeah and ?? Let's say that Trump wins OK-5 53/45 next year, Horn will still need to win a good chunck of Trump voters, voting to impeach Trump is not going to help.

If impeachment is at 45-50 (and Trump is less popular than not impeaching), that could mean Trump wins it by only 1-2-- something an incumbent like Horn can probably overcome. Not that this is plausible, and a more comfortable 53-45 Trump win like you mentioned is far more likely, but I am just pointing out that if one takes this poll at face value, it is bad news for Trump.

[Bidenworth2020]

Republican internal shows Republican up by 9 in IL-06:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1209303101594841088?s=20

LOL Likely D.

Ives is possibly the worst fit for that district.

Think there is something funky going on with this poll though- it still has dems up 48-43 on the generic ballot.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1216045310436368387

The NY state GOP is a trainwreck

Probably also a sign of Delgado's strength.

[Bidenworth2020]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

[Bidenworth2020]

Cook made House rating changes in 10 districts today:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-fall-outlook-shifts-10-districts

FL-26: Likely D to Lean D
IL-06: Lean D to Likely D
IL-14: Toss Up to Lean D
MI-08: Toss Up to Lean D
MO-02: Likely R to Lean R
NY-19: Toss Up to Lean D
NC-08: Solid R to Likely R
NC-09: Likely R to Solid R
TX-31: Lean R to Likely R
UT-04: Toss Up to Lean D

A lot of these are odd. Democrats aren’t getting stronger in some suburban areaas and simultaneously worse in others that are demographically similar

I think a lot of these movements are more based on the fact that the virus has basically frozen campaigning, given a lot of vulnerable frontliners a boost.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1260393335254142976

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1265262975096684545

[Bidenworth2020]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200608_OK.pdf

Horn leads "Republican Challenger" 42-41. For reference, Biden is winning this seat 50-44 according to this poll.