2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1225538635388375042?s=20

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Paulette Jordan, the 2018 Democrat nominee for Idaho governor, has announced her run against Republican senator Jim Risch!

[Frenchrepublican]

Paulette Jordan, the 2018 Democrat nominee for Idaho governor, has announced her run against Republican senator Jim Risch!

Okay and ?? It's not really a game-changer development

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Paulette Jordan, the 2018 Democrat nominee for Idaho governor, has announced her run against Republican senator Jim Risch!

Okay and ?? It's not really a game-changer development

She's the most high-profile candidate the Democrats could have got to run. She'll definitely sweep the primary. She's also the kind of progressive I support. I've already donated $20 to her campaign.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

[Bidenworth2020]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

[Lisa's voting Biden]

IL-14 GOP primary poll (Oberweis internal) shows Oberweis up big
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225888697788313600?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

It’s an R internal so this is really good news for Finkenauer.

[Frenchrepublican]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

Even if Harper is a republican pollster their polls are generally fairly accurate and their methodology is far more honest than what you tend to see with PPP or McLaughin. Trump won this district by 4 in 2016 so a 3 points lead is very plausible, there are no reason to doubt of these numbers

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1225902431948726272?s=20

These numbers are crazy if true, republicans are leading the generic ballot in NH !!

Two years ago they lost it by double digits in NH

[Calthrina950]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

It would be something if Finkenauer won reelection at the same time Trump is carrying her district. What would explain the motivations of any voter who would split their ticket between Trump and a House Democrat, especially after impeachment?

[Tekken_Guy]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

It would be something if Finkenauer won reelection at the same Trump is carrying her district. What would explain the motivations of any voter who would split their ticket between Trump and a House Democrat, especially after impeachment?

Guys like Collin Peterson and Matt Cartwright ran well ahead of Trump in their races. They may like them as an independent brand. Many may not like Trump but would reluctantly vote for him. Trump will likely be winning Iowa by at least 7 points if Finkenauer is losing.

[Calthrina950]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

It would be something if Finkenauer won reelection at the same Trump is carrying her district. What would explain the motivations of any voter who would split their ticket between Trump and a House Democrat, especially after impeachment?

Guys like Collin Peterson and Matt Cartwright ran well ahead of Trump in their races. They may like them as an independent brand. Many may not like Trump but would reluctantly vote for him. Trump will likely be winning Iowa by at least 7 points if Finkenauer is losing.

Or you must mean that they ran well ahead of Clinton? And Peterson, remember, was the only House Democrat to vote against every element of impeachment-the inquiry, both articles, and the transmission of those articles to the Senate. I can understand Trump voters opting to reelect him, but not any other Democrat in a district Trump will almost certainly win again.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1225902431948726272?s=20

These numbers are crazy if true, republicans are leading the generic ballot in NH !!

Two years ago they lost it by double digits in NH

Neither Kuster nor Pappas face serious challengers from the Republicans. It’s likely just an outlier.

[Tekken_Guy]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

It would be something if Finkenauer won reelection at the same Trump is carrying her district. What would explain the motivations of any voter who would split their ticket between Trump and a House Democrat, especially after impeachment?

Guys like Collin Peterson and Matt Cartwright ran well ahead of Trump in their races. They may like them as an independent brand. Many may not like Trump but would reluctantly vote for him. Trump will likely be winning Iowa by at least 7 points if Finkenauer is losing.

Or you must mean that they ran well ahead of Clinton? And Peterson, remember, was the only House Democrat to vote against every element of impeachment-the inquiry, both articles, and the transmission of those articles to the Senate. I can understand Trump voters opting to reelect him, but not any other Democrat in a district Trump will almost certainly win again.

Yeah, but Matt Cartwright voted for impeachment in a district Trump won by 9 points. He’s favored to win re-election still.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteBlue/comments/f0nu32/ia01_poll_abby_finkenauer_dinc_44_ashley_hinson_r/?utm_source=iftttI

Finkenaur 44
Hinson 40

IA is gonna be competetive at the Prez, Sen and House race, Ernst is vulnerable due to her vote to acquit

[Brittain33]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

It would be something if Finkenauer won reelection at the same Trump is carrying her district. What would explain the motivations of any voter who would split their ticket between Trump and a House Democrat, especially after impeachment?

Low name recognition for the challenger is one factor.

Let’s flip this around: what’s the evidence for House race results aligning perfectly with Presidential race results? We’ve seen it in the Senate once, but not yet in the House where it’s still not impossible to have an identity independent from the top of the ticket.

[Brittain33]

Anyway, the fact that Finkenauer only won by 4-5 points when she was expected to run away with the race last time is a vote for his poll being roughly believable.

[Pollster]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

It would be something if Finkenauer won reelection at the same Trump is carrying her district. What would explain the motivations of any voter who would split their ticket between Trump and a House Democrat, especially after impeachment?

Its a very interesting phenomenon we're currently seeing in a lot of our polling. The 2018 freshmen class, especially the women, appear to have created unique bonds with the electorate, and many of them maintain a lot of personal popularity due to fond memories of their 2018 campaigns.

This can probably only help so much in the bigger, double-digit Trump 2016 districts that Dems are defending, but is a major boon for the Finkenauer's/Slotkin's/Porter's/Underwood's/Spanberger's of the world.

[Calthrina950]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

It would be something if Finkenauer won reelection at the same Trump is carrying her district. What would explain the motivations of any voter who would split their ticket between Trump and a House Democrat, especially after impeachment?

Low name recognition for the challenger is one factor.

Let’s flip this around: what’s the evidence for House race results aligning perfectly with Presidential race results? We’ve seen it in the Senate once, but not yet in the House where it’s still not impossible to have an identity independent from the top of the ticket.

Polarization hasn't reached that point yet, and I would hope that it never does. At any rate, it's still surprising to me, that Trump voters would still be willing to cast a ballot for someone who is at direct odds with the President that they support.

[Skill and Chance]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

It would be something if Finkenauer won reelection at the same Trump is carrying her district. What would explain the motivations of any voter who would split their ticket between Trump and a House Democrat, especially after impeachment?

Low name recognition for the challenger is one factor.

Let’s flip this around: what’s the evidence for House race results aligning perfectly with Presidential race results? We’ve seen it in the Senate once, but not yet in the House where it’s still not impossible to have an identity independent from the top of the ticket.

Polarization hasn't reached that point yet, and I would hope that it never does. At any rate, it's still surprising to me, that Trump voters would still be willing to cast a ballot for someone who is at direct odds with the President that they support.

I don't find this shocking at all.  There is a significant faction of voters who explicitly want divided government.  An "incumbent president +3" district will be a prime location for this.

I think the surprise result at the top of the ticket made things align more than they normally do in 2016.  If Trump had been favored for the presidency from day 1, House R's would have done considerably worse, and Kander and or McGinty might have gotten through with the divided govt vote going the other way.  If House R's started at say 225 and Senate R's started at 51 or even 50, the Obamacare replacement would never have seen the light of day, the tax cuts would have to be deficit neutral, and they might have actually done better in 2018.  The SALT cap almost surely doesn't happen if 5-10 suburban Romney district R's just lost.     

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems dont have their nominee yet and it could be a backlash to the Biden Ukraine scandal, Bernie is gonna unite the party

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteBlue/comments/f1al11/democratic_senate_candidate_mark_kelly_has_raised/?utm_source=ifttt

AZ is likely D as a Senate seat as Mark Kelly raises fast cash over McSally

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mark Kelly has Dems Hope's up of cracking the red wall; consequently, AZ, FL and NC are purple. McSally is done

[Gracile]

The NRCC has outraised the DCCC in January, the first time that has happened in 24 months:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1227272235897040898

The DCCC still likely has a large COH advantage, though.