2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1185185444314701824?s=20

What do they mean "battleground"? That could mean that they might expand a little or that they are on the defensive.

[Person Man]

The guy is considered Trump's brain. And boy, does he live up to his reputation.

He's some wannabe mountain man who thinks he is Karl Rove. He's no Karl Rove.

[Person Man]

The guy is considered Trump's brain. And boy, does he live up to his reputation.

He's some wannabe mountain man who thinks he is Karl Rove. He's no Karl Rove.

He's not even Steve Bannon (who was a laughably bad political strategist but one of the only ones to fully understand the modern Republican base).

He was at least good enough to win the Republicans a decent trifecta and respectable EV win despite losing convincingly at the top of the ticket.

[Person Man]

The guy is considered Trump's brain. And boy, does he live up to his reputation.

He's some wannabe mountain man who thinks he is Karl Rove. He's no Karl Rove.

He's not even Steve Bannon (who was a laughably bad political strategist but one of the only ones to fully understand the modern Republican base).

He was at least good enough to win the Republicans a decent trifecta and respectable EV win despite losing convincingly at the top of the ticket.

I credit Kellyanne Conway - who is and always has been for the most part a very good strategist despite what she is now known for - with that. I trust Bannon played a role, but his disastrous strategy skills I think have only ever been on full display in the 2017 Alabama special election.

OK. Sure. Kellyanne is probably the closest thing then to a Karl Rove the GOP has right now. I mean, maybe she is at the caliber but she lacks the entire supervillian  vibe that Rove or Cheney had. She's just kind of a shill and a jackass.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1204409827457486848

Time to break out the champagne.

....Why?

He promised only 4 terms. FF move to retire here,actually held to his promises.

Safe R -> Likely R

In a Trump Midterm

Likely -> Lean R

[Person Man]

National Journal's Hotline has released its "House Power Rankings" of the 20 seats most likely to flip:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/705331?unlock=T6IBGP736CBYJRW3

1. TX-23
2. OK-05
3. SC-01
4. NM-02
5. NY-22
6. GA-07
7. IA-01
8. GA-06
9. MN-07
10. IA-03
11. ME-02
12. TX-24
13. NY-11
14. CA-21
15. PA-10
16. TX-07
17. NJ-03
18. IL-13
19. CA-48
20. TX-22

How .any Ds and Rs is that?

[Person Man]

National Journal's Hotline has released its "House Power Rankings" of the 20 seats most likely to flip:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/705331?unlock=T6IBGP736CBYJRW3

1. TX-23
2. OK-05
3. SC-01
4. NM-02
5. NY-22
6. GA-07
7. IA-01
8. GA-06
9. MN-07
10. IA-03
11. ME-02
12. TX-24
13. NY-11
14. CA-21
15. PA-10
16. TX-07
17. NJ-03
18. IL-13
19. CA-48
20. TX-22

How .any Ds and Rs is that?

I believe there's 6 Rs and 14 Ds on that list

Outside of a landslide, the max is one party netting that. Democrats can still gain in something short of a 2008 situation and Republicans can take the house in an absolute most extreme situation.  This would give 214 to Rs and 241 to Ds.

[Person Man]

McLaughlin GCB poll shows Democrats up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245205231308345344?s=20

I stopped reading at “McLaughlin”

Didn't they have Democrats losing in their last poll last time?

[Person Man]

Morning Consult has GCB at Dems +8, 46-38%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-56ae-d92d-a5ff-deaeba860000

That's pretty stable, then?

[Person Man]

If you want a good laugh, McLOLghlin has the generic ballot at D+1.

https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/April-National-Monthly-RELEASE-1.pdf

Isn't that an improvement?

[Person Man]

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/house-forecast/

Jhk house forecast.
Pretty good measure where the house is at right now, mostly agree with most ratings.

Where were we in May 2018?

[Person Man]

Suffolk has the GCB at D +14 (51%/37%)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/06/30/poll-biden-widens-lead-but-trump-has-enthusiasm-edge/3234610001/

If that happened, Democrats would gain another 40 seats.

[Person Man]

So at this point, is another D wave as likely as the Rs winning the House?

[Person Man]

IA-03
Tarrance Group
July 7-9
400 LV

Young 44%
Axne 43%
Holder 6%
Undecided 7%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-6f68-d3de-ab7b-7f79a08f0000

Lol Trump at 58% approval on economy.

It's more revealing that this is the only Trump approval number they released; no other issues, and no general job approval.

and still no prez #s...

It’s a GOP internal right?

[Person Man]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

FINALLY! I was wondering why MC stopped doing their GCB like 3 months ago

Trends?

[Person Man]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

[Person Man]

Not to mention the candidate "IDK" is competitive.

[Person Man]

They will need like 20 seats. This is 34 seats. How many of these 34 do they already control? My guess is that if they win all of these seats, that they pick up like 25 seats.

[Person Man]

GA-06 GQR (D): McBath (D-inc) 50%, Handel (R) 47%

https://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ECU-GA06-Memo.pdf

Honestly for a D internal this is kind of disappointing. I'm not expecting a McBath blowout but I would assume, even without a D internal, she should be up at least 3/4 here, considering incumbency, she's been well-received, well-funded, and Handel seems pretty unpopular.

Her winning by 3 is then as likely as Trump winning Wisconsin.

[Person Man]

So there's a scenario where Biden loses they way Hillary does but Pelosi still holds the house.

[Person Man]

So there's a scenario where Biden loses they way Hillary does but Pelosi still holds the house.

This scenario occurs in most of the narrow Trump wins where he's only ahead thanks to 1 or 2 states, IMO.

Basically 2016 redux. I think Republicans can win the House in a Trump popular vote victory, but that's about it. A Trump popular vote victory will be seen as an R wave.

[Person Man]

Civiqs tracker is stable thru 9/19, with Ds up 8, 51-43

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

9/21 update: Ds up to +9, 52-43

This could even go up more if Trump starts catching up or pulling ahead.