2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Libertas Vel Mors]

FL-27 is already represented by one of the worst people in Congress who isn't a Republican, a true monster and likely sociopath of Trump levels. Well another notable stand out Horrible Person even beyond Republican levels could be her challenger.

....if I was unfortunate enough to live in this sh!thole district I'd file and run myself in the D primary if no one else does.

Why don't people like Shalala? Not that I like her, I've just never gotten any reason for the hate

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-democrats/expanding-the-squad-us-liberals-challenge-moderate-democrats-to-move-party-left-idUSKBN1X00ZY

But the fact that the Texas congressional primary will be held on the same day as the state’s presidential primary could double turnout and boost Cisneros’ chances, said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.

“If she is able to make the case that she is the congressional equivalent of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and Beto O’Rourke, and Henry Cuellar is not, then Cuellar could find himself in some trouble,” Jones said.

How on earth is this guy a political science professor btw? Clinton won every county in the district by large margins and won Texas Hispanics over Bernie 71-29, but yes, obviously being associated with Bernie is just the key to victory in this #risingProgressive #Sanders2020, NeverBiden district.

The daughter of Mexican-American immigrants, Cisneros said that residents in the largely Hispanic district, which is centered in Laredo and stretches from the San Antonio suburbs to the U.S.-Mexico border, are warming to liberal policies. Democrat Hillary Clinton won the district in the 2016 presidential race by 20 percentage points.

Acting like Clinton's margin of victory in a 79% Hispanic, South Texas district proves whether the district is liberal or conservative shows absolutely nothing except that whoever wrote this article has no idea what they're talking about. I can't wait for Cueller to get re-elected by a 40+ point margin.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-democrats/expanding-the-squad-us-liberals-challenge-moderate-democrats-to-move-party-left-idUSKBN1X00ZY

But the fact that the Texas congressional primary will be held on the same day as the state’s presidential primary could double turnout and boost Cisneros’ chances, said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.

“If she is able to make the case that she is the congressional equivalent of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and Beto O’Rourke, and Henry Cuellar is not, then Cuellar could find himself in some trouble,” Jones said.

How on earth is this guy a political science professor btw? Clinton won every county in the district by large margins and won Texas Hispanics over Bernie 71-29, but yes, obviously being associated with Bernie is just the key to victory in this #risingProgressive #Sanders2020, NeverBiden district.

The daughter of Mexican-American immigrants, Cisneros said that residents in the largely Hispanic district, which is centered in Laredo and stretches from the San Antonio suburbs to the U.S.-Mexico border, are warming to liberal policies. Democrat Hillary Clinton won the district in the 2016 presidential race by 20 percentage points.

Acting like Clinton's margin of victory in a 79% Hispanic, South Texas district proves whether the district is liberal or conservative shows absolutely nothing except that whoever wrote this article has no idea what they're talking about. I can't wait for Cueller to get re-elected by a 40+ point margin.

If Sanders made it to Super Tuesday I wouldn't be shocked if Sanders did better than 2016 in this district by raw percentage aka he gets more than 29%.

I honestly think Sanders will stay in right up until around the end. Even if he's doing awfully, he'd probably push it through anyway, as he did in 2016 (albeit with more support).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The DCCC released a poll one week ago that asked about Trump's job approval in a number of battleground districts:

https://2vmhfw1isbe32j3tgn3epw3x-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/One-Year-Out.pdf

> NY-11 48-48

> OK-5 49-49

This is exactly the kind of quality polling I expect from Democratic internal polls

[Libertas Vel Mors]

WHAT!?! Trump is more unpopular in all the competitive Texas seats than he is in IA-2? This can’t be.

Yawn. Nice strawman. My point has nothing to do with that - of course, say, TX-24 will have a higher disapprove then IL-17, even if Trump won TX-24 by more. However, TX-24/=OK-5, and I quite doubt some of the numbers in this poll.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The NRCC never learns, I can't believe they spent money for the labor to do this .



From townhall https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2019/11/01/get-packing-gop-sent-moving-boxes-to-democrats-in-competitive-races-after-impe-n2555745/

Anyway VA 10th is probably the 3rd most pro impeach district VA ahead of the 4th and maybe even the 3rd district. Obviously the 8th and 11th are more pro impeach.

>VA-10

>competitive

YeahOk

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Nick Freitas is a pretty weak candidate though, so I can understand the rating change if that is who the Republicans are settling on, but I also think it's silly to have VA-2 as a tossup right now.

Out of curiosity, why is Freitas a weak candidate?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Stefanik really fell off the deep end...

https://twitter.com/elisestefanik/status/1195507322317086725?s=21

Her challenger raised $400K since the stunt

https://twitter.com/tedracobb/status/1195789626700632065?s=21

I don’t think she’ll lose BUT the district is only R+4 so 🤷🏻‍♂️

This probably helps her more then hurts. Ignore the Obama numbers, this is the Republican counterpart to AZ-9/VA-10 etc etc. She's not losing.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Nick Freitas is a pretty weak candidate though, so I can understand the rating change if that is who the Republicans are settling on, but I also think it's silly to have VA-2 as a tossup right now.

Out of curiosity, why is Freitas a weak candidate?

He was a really strong candidate until 2019. This year, he tried to have a family member primary a moderate GOPer in the state senate, which failed. He in general threw himself behind the slew of more conservative primaries, only one of which succeeded and ended up giving the democrat the seat. He than went around to all the out of state donors brandishing his credentials but in the process forgot to submit the paperwork to properly run for reelection. His seat ironically became a battleground. After losing a lawsuit to try and get on the ballot, he had to call in tons of donor favors to run a serious write-in campaign. Freitas ended up winning that write-in campaign, but only after groups like the NRA had to bail him out with millions in ads on how to write Freitas. His star has certainly diminished over the past eleven months.

Finally, there is the fact Freitas Repp's the rural north of the seat and not the suburbs where the votes are, but that is not his fault.

Thanks for this btw. Great summary.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It's official: Steve Knight is running again in CA-25:
https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1196576402708918272?s=20

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Josh Hicks announces run against Andy Barr in KY-06. He wasn't their first choice, but has the support of the DCCC.

Safe R, yawn

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Btw, Dems now lead Republicans by just +6 in the generic ballot. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Still enough to hold the House, but doing 3 points better then 2018 would certainly be enough to ensure a net gain for the GOP, regardless of how NC/TX-23/24 turns out (22 and 21 are honestly overrated, even Beto couldn't win them).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Btw, Dems now lead Republicans by just +6 in the generic ballot. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Still enough to hold the House, but doing 3 points better then 2018 would certainly be enough to ensure a net gain for the GOP, regardless of how NC/TX-23/24 turns out (22 and 21 are honestly overrated, even Beto couldn't win them).

First of all, what is "Just +6"? Being 6 pts ahead doesn't justify a "just" infront of it. Not to mention there's a ton of undecideds still, and for most of the 2018 cycle, Dems were up by about 5-7 on average so this is... right inline with early 2018 polls.

You're right, that was a kind of a hackish thing to say in hindsight. My apologies.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Roll Call House rating changes:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/house-rating-changes-a-dozen-races-shift-toward-democrats

Toward R:

MN-7: Lean D to Tilt D

Toward D:

AZ-6: Solid R to Likely R
CA-25: Likely D to Solid D
IL-6: Lean D to Likely D
IL-13: Tilt R to Tossup
IA-2: Tossup to Tilt D
IA-4: Lean R to Tilt R
MI-8: Tilt D to Lean D
MI-11: Lean D to Likely D
MN-1: Lean R to Tilt R
MN-2: Lean D to Likely D
NH-1: Lean D to Likely D
VA-2: Tilt D to Lean D

Agreed on MN-7, AZ-6, CA-25, IL-06, but completely disagreed on IL-13. It was Trump +6 in 2016, and Davis held on even in 2018: should be lean R still imo. IA-4 is basically the same logic, even if King survives the primary it'll still probably be an R hold. MN-1 also shouldn't be moved: other than that, all agreed.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

OK. Sure. Kellyanne is probably the closest thing then to a Karl Rove the GOP has right now. I mean, maybe she is at the caliber but she lacks the entire supervillian  vibe that Rove or Cheney had. She's just kind of a shill and a jackass.

I can't fathom what her domestic life is like. I mean her husband has now started dunking her publicly at twitter.

Imagine being gullible enough to believe that. George Conaway is anti-Trump, but the idea that he and his wife are actually feuding is kinda bs tbh.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

OK. Sure. Kellyanne is probably the closest thing then to a Karl Rove the GOP has right now. I mean, maybe she is at the caliber but she lacks the entire supervillian  vibe that Rove or Cheney had. She's just kind of a shill and a jackass.

I can't fathom what her domestic life is like. I mean her husband has now started dunking her publicly at twitter.

Imagine being gullible enough to believe that. George Conaway is anti-Trump, but the idea that he and his wife are actually feuding is kinda bs tbh.

Kellyanne is incredibly good, obviously, at being whatever she needs to be. I agree she's probably the best strategist the party has right now, yet still nothing compared to Rove (and therein lies the problem for the party, essentially). Jeff Roe definitely has Rove's cunning, but notably lacks his record of success. Corry Bliss is looking like a massive bust as well.

Dems are sort of in a strategist bind as well, many of the ones who thrived in the late Bush/early Obama years have seen their stars fade (many veterans of the field were infamously blacklisted by the national party in the aftermath of 2010) and they are notoriously slower than the GOP to prop up rising stars.

Why were they blacklisted?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1204409827457486848

Time to break out the champagne.

....Why?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1204409827457486848

Time to break out the champagne.

....Why?

He promised only 4 terms. FF move to retire here,actually held to his promises.

Safe R -> Likely R

In a Trump Midterm

Likely -> Lean R

This was a Trump +15 district...the only other district Democrats hold in the nation that gave Trump more than 55% is MN-07. Safe R -> Safe R.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The NRCC is on twitter right now writing press releases against Wexton in VA-10.




How are we this stupid? How?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The NRCC is on twitter right now writing press releases against Wexton in VA-10.




How are we this stupid? How?

I feel with her district it's simply that a lot of big donor party insider types live there. The party kept spending tons of cash in VA-10 last year despite it being an obvious triage.

This is very true. I would also add that Comstock's connections to party officials likely played a role in the high amount of money spent here. Comstock has worked in various capacities in Republican party politics, and it wouldn't surprise me if some of her colleagues in high places were able to sway the NRCC to spend money on her race. An incumbent who didn't have a long history as a party insider likely would have been left for dead.

Even so, why are we continuing to do this when she's no longer even running? Why can't "big donor party insider types" recognize what is apparent to all of us and say that it's time to manage resources more effectively? Like, for all the talk on this forum about how districts like TX-07 or CA-39 are gone in 2020, at least those races were decided by literally a third of the margin here.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

RCP's 2020 GCB aggregate has it D +7.2 which is up 1.4 from last week and levels almost exactly with where the Dems were for 2018 (+7.3)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html

Obviously, it's useless this far out but the narrative that impeachment is destroying the Democrats is hot garbage.

Trump is at his highest approval of any point in his entire Presidency, and now leads in a whole bunch of the mainstream poll matchups (obviously an outlier, but USA Today's poll yesterday showed him beating even Biden by 3 points nationally, Bernie by 5, and Warren by . Congressionally I agree on it's lack of an impact, but presidentially it's already causing major changes, though it's to be seen if those changes are still mattering by election day.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1207481858751180802

The media is REALLY forcing this "impeachment is a death sentence for Dems~~~~" narrative REALLY hard and it's really incredulous and annoying.

Well, it depends of the districts you’re looking at. In PA-8, NY-22, NY-19, NY-11, SC-1, OK-5, MN-7, ME-2, VA-7, MI-8 impeachment is likely to be a big anchor around the neck of your party’s candidates.

Err...not really. 

Err, yes it is. If impeachment is at +1 nationwide, it seems pretty likely it's heavily underwater in NY-19 etc, even if you want to say no for VA-7 or something because of trends.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Apparently Cook thinks Troy Balderson isn’t vulnerable anymore.

And he is right

But Ann Wagner is vulnerable how?

I would rate the race as Lean R at the moment, the main difference is that OH 12 has a large chuck of rural and exurban areas while MO-2 is almost entirely suburban.

Maybe NC-9 is a better comparison. It barely changed in redistricting, and McCready isn’t running again. If Balderson is safe, so is Bishop.

Not in the slightest. Uber white rural areas of Ohio hardly compare to a bunch of D leaning black plurality counties in the South.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

Consider this: RCP pegs the GCB at D+6.8 right now. There's a whole twelve Republican held districts that Trump either lost or won by less than 6.8:

NC-02 (redistricted)
NC-06 (redistricted)
NY-24
TX-23
PA-01
FL-25 (doesn't really fit the bill because of downballot Cubans sadly)
NE-02
NJ-02 (HARDLY a safe district for the GOP)
IL-13
TX-24
GA-07
OH-01

Meanwhile, there's only eight Democratic held districts that Trump won by more than 6.8:

MN-07 (🅱️eterson)
NY-22
OK-05
SC-01
ME-02
NM-02
NY-11
PA-08 (🅱️artwright)

Not to mention a few more districts that fall outside of those bounds on both sides but are still very winnable: TX-22, PA-10, NY-02, TX-31, TX-10, TX-21, and the weird three way race in MI-03 for the Dems, UT-04, NY-19, NJ-03, IA-01, IL-14, IA-03, IA-02, MI-08, VA-02, and VA-07 for the GOP, etc.

Dems left a lot on the table in 2018, and to act like they don't have room to grow in 2020 would be foolish. In fact, here's your hot take of the day: Dems are going to net seats. You heard it here first, folks.

I do think it's plausible that the Dems actually do pick up seats, mostly because their freshman class seems strong and because they have more guaranteed pickups than Republicans do (the two NC districts and TX-23 seem like definite pickups at this point).

I think a Dem net pickup would require something more dramatic than just those seats.  Cartwright, Peterson, Brindisi, the open IA-02, etc. are going to flip unless the presidential election is a Dem blowout.  A Dem net gain would require something like every Republican-held seat involved in the Austin gerrymander flipping.  

Cartwright?  Biden probably carries that district if he is the nominee.

Atlas: Biden can flip a Trump +10 district blue if he runs, because of muh Pennsylvania roots and muh blue collar identity

Also Atlas: You're CRAZY if you think a Clinton +1, Romney +21 district could flip R if a literal Socialist is nominated

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Atlas: Biden can flip a Trump +10 district blue if he runs, because of muh Pennsylvania roots and muh blue collar identity

Also Atlas: You're CRAZY if you think a Clinton +1, Romney +21 district could flip R if a literal Socialist is nominated

Atlas: an incumbent winning reelection while the opposing Presidential candidate wins it is "flipping" a district

We're talking about Presidential politics here, so yes, sure.