2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[wbrocks67]

The Civiqs tracker for the GCB is back up for 2020. It has D+8 right now (51-43)

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Civiqs’ final call for 2018 was D+7 and their tracker was quite stable. That’s under the actual D+8.6 result, but pretty much “correct” if you account for how many districts had no Republican challengers. I give this particular tracker a lot of creedence.

Very true. I'd also give it more creedence b/c unlike some other trackers, if you look back at their data all this year, the tracker has also been very stable, really going from D+6 to D+8 the entire time

[lfromnj]

https://jewishinsider.com/2020/04/odd-bedfellows-converge-in-san-diego-congressional-race/

The Jewish community in San Diego is supporting the Justice Democrat over the more moderate Jewish Democrat, because the Justice Democrat is more pro Israel.
Sara Jacobs screwed up here big time.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL, great news for Christy Smith.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252417321685053440

[SnowLabrador]

Garcia will still probably win the special election, but a good chance he loses in November even if so. Democrats just haven't been good at turning out in special elections this cycle.

[wbrocks67]

Garcia will still probably win the special election, but a good chance he loses in November even if so. Democrats just haven't been good at turning out in special elections this cycle.

Is there any news on how many ballots have been returned so far?

[Pollster]

Steve Watkins had a very poor fundraising quarter.

His likely Dem opponent outraised him, and his primary challenger has more COH.

Why is LaTurner's fundraising so pathetic? The guy was supposed to be a senate contender.

He was recruited into this race essentially to help stop Kobach in the Senate race, and to have a viable alternative in case Watkins implodes further as well. Possible the party is abandoning him now that they've gotten what they needed from him.

[Pollster]

Dave Schweikert is burning campaign money on legal fees and is quickly accumulating debt.

Hiral Tipirneni outraised him as well, and has a huge COH lead.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Steve Watkins had a very poor fundraising quarter.

His likely Dem opponent outraised him, and his primary challenger has more COH.

Why is LaTurner's fundraising so pathetic? The guy was supposed to be a senate contender.

He was recruited into this race essentially to help stop Kobach in the Senate race, and to have a viable alternative in case Watkins implodes further as well. Possible the party is abandoning him now that they've gotten what they needed from him.

That's a really scummy thing to do and will destroy their credibility. Then again looking how Virginia Republicans managed to become irrelevant in less than a decade...

[Pollster]

Steve Watkins had a very poor fundraising quarter.

His likely Dem opponent outraised him, and his primary challenger has more COH.

Why is LaTurner's fundraising so pathetic? The guy was supposed to be a senate contender.

He was recruited into this race essentially to help stop Kobach in the Senate race, and to have a viable alternative in case Watkins implodes further as well. Possible the party is abandoning him now that they've gotten what they needed from him.

That's a really scummy thing to do and will destroy their credibility. Then again looking how Virginia Republicans managed to become irrelevant in less than a decade...

Certainly scummy, but La Turner is young, already holds a statewide office that he doesn't have to give up by running this cycle, and is now viewed as a reliable team player. And given the sizable COH lead he's got plus Watkins' consistent legal troubles, it's not even a given that he'll lose.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The 538 aggregate has the Democrats up 8 points (48.4%-40.4%)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

[wbrocks67]

The Civiqs tracker inches up to D+9

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems +4 not 8

[wbrocks67]

YouGov has Dems at +8 in GCB again

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/pwwefjdnsp/econTabReport.pdf

[Landslide Lyndon]

If you want a good laugh, McLOLghlin has the generic ballot at D+1.

https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/April-National-Monthly-RELEASE-1.pdf

[Person Man]

If you want a good laugh, McLOLghlin has the generic ballot at D+1.

https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/April-National-Monthly-RELEASE-1.pdf

Isn't that an improvement?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you want a good laugh, McLOLghlin has the generic ballot at D+1.

https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/April-National-Monthly-RELEASE-1.pdf

Isn't that an improvement?

It wasnt D plus 9, its D plus 4

[Lisa's voting Biden]

I had the House at Lean D but I think it's pretty Likely D at this point.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1253081178011250689?s=20

[GeorgiaModerate]

I had the House at Lean D but I think it's pretty Likely D at this point.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1253081178011250689?s=20

Defining Lean as "one side has a clear edge, but neither outcome would be a surprise" and Likely as "it would be a surprise if the leading side lost, but it's not completely implausible", then I think the House has to be Likely D at this point; it would certainly be a real surprise for Republicans to take the majority.

For the sake of completeness: I define Safe as "an upset would be completely shocking", Tilt as "it's really close, but if forced to choose there's one I'd pick", and Tossup as "I'm clueless".  At this point I'm calling the Presidency Lean D and the Senate Tossup (maybe Tilt D if you squint hard enough).

[Frenchrepublican]

Ratings changes at Crystall Ball

NC-9 from Likely R to Safe R
TX-31 from Lean R to Likely R
PA-1 from Lean R to Likely R
NE-2 from Tossup to Lean R 

NJ-3 from Tossup to Lean D
MN-2 from Lean D to Likely D
WI-3 from Likely D to Safe D

« One extremely well-funded House Democratic freshman, Rep. Andy Kim (D, NJ-3), moves out of the Toss-up category this week.

Kim defeated well-heeled former Rep. Tom MacArthur (R, NJ-3) in a south/central New Jersey district that abuts NJ-2, home of party-switching Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R). Kim is sitting on a $2.7 million warchest as businessman David Richter and former local official Kate Gibbs battle for the GOP nomination. Richter initially was set to challenge Van Drew in NJ-2 but switched races following Van Drew’s party change; neither he nor Gibbs cracked even $100,000 raised from donors in 2020’s first quarter, although Richter has some ability to self-fund: He has loaned his campaign $600,000 so far and has suggested he’ll put in a total of $1 million. However, the New Jersey Globe noted last month that much of Richter’s wealth comes from shares of stock in his former company, which has been hit hard so far by the economic crisis; Richter said at the time that this would not impact his ability to put his own money into the race, but this is something to monitor. Trump won this district 51%-45% after Barack Obama carried it twice, so Kim likely will need to attract crossover support — the money edge will help him try to generate that support. His race now Leans Democratic.

Weak GOP recruiting and fundraising also pushes us to move first-term Rep. Angie Craig (D, MN-2) from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic and veteran Rep. Ron Kind (D, WI-3) from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic. Both hold marginal Trump-won seats, although MN-2 was so close that presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden could end up carrying it this fall, and Democrats have also performed well in Kind’s district in big races the past few years (and Kind himself appears to have a strong personal brand).

The Democrats are not immune to this problem in some of the districts they are trying to flip from Republicans. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1) occupies a very competitive, Hillary Clinton-won district in Bucks County, a battleground area in Greater Philadelphia. But he lacks a credible opponent and has an enormous fundraising edge, so he moves from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.

Rep. John Carter (R, TX-31) survived a close call in 2018 against veteran MJ Hegar (D), who may be the Democratic challenger to Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) this cycle if she wins a primary runoff. Carter does not appear to face as spirited of opposition this time, and he also moves from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Rep. Dan Bishop (R, NC-9), who won a closely-watched do-over special election last September, also doesn’t seem to face much of a challenge this time around. He moves from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.

We also are upgrading Rep. Don Bacon (R, NE-2) from Toss-up to Leans Republican. Bacon only narrowly survived a challenge in 2018 from Kara Eastman (D), a progressive who national Democrats essentially gave up on two years ago. Eastman may very well be the Democratic challenger again as she has significantly outpaced the fundraising of a couple of intraparty rivals, most notably Ann Ashford, the wife of former Rep. Brad Ashford (D, NE-2). Brad Ashford lost to Eastman in last cycle’s primary after losing to Bacon in a close 2016 race. This race could end up being very competitive as the presidential candidates battle for the district’s single electoral vote (Trump won it by two points in 2016). But Bacon probably deserves an edge for the time being. »

[wbrocks67]

I think the PA-01 change may be a bit much. This is a presidential year, so even if the nominee is weak, it's still possible they're taken over the finish line by Biden.

[Roll Roons]

I think the PA-01 change may be a bit much. This is a presidential year, so even if the nominee is weak, it's still possible they're taken over the finish line by Biden.

Fitzpatrick is someone who has proven ability to run ahead of the ticket. In 2018, the district was Casey +15 and Wolf +19, and he still managed to win, even with a weak opponent. He has one of, if not the, most moderate voting records of any House Republican, and his very popular late brother was his immediate predecessor.

[Roll Roons]

Monmouth:

https://www.insidernj.com/monmouth-poll-competitive-house-races-nj-districts-2-3-5-7-11/?fbclid=IwAR0_MG4LnKRLuGTN_f6k8mv3c7yNuD4pt7O29A07NeKXid0zVuSiqwE-DHY

Republicans are winning the aggregate ballot in NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 by 46-45. At this point in 2018, Democrats were leading 49-42. Wonder how much of the swing is from NJ-02 alone.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think the PA-01 change may be a bit much. This is a presidential year, so even if the nominee is weak, it's still possible they're taken over the finish line by Biden.

Fitzpatrick is someone who has proven ability to run ahead of the ticket. In 2018, the district was Casey +15 and Wolf +19, and he still managed to win, even with a weak opponent. He has one of, if not the, most moderate voting records of any House Republican, and his very popular late brother was his immediate predecessor.

Chet Edwards and Mike Coffman say hi.

[lfromnj]

I think the PA-01 change may be a bit much. This is a presidential year, so even if the nominee is weak, it's still possible they're taken over the finish line by Biden.

Fitzpatrick is someone who has proven ability to run ahead of the ticket. In 2018, the district was Casey +15 and Wolf +19, and he still managed to win, even with a weak opponent. He has one of, if not the, most moderate voting records of any House Republican, and his very popular late brother was his immediate predecessor.

Chet Edwards and Mike Coffman say hi.

You mean a Mccain 67% district and a Clinton +9 district? 2018 was already a complete wave in PA with Democrats also nearly winning a Trump +20 district and coming close in a Trump +11 district(Pa10th although they have a star candidate here.) I wouldn't move PA 1 to likely R yet but its a clinton +2 district not some titanium D district, its not even like Bucks is trending rapidly democrat although the district did move left a bit due to the redistricting that put in the Montgomery portion which has moved decently left which gave it around a 2.3% D trend in 2016.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

The House will not be flipping back. Congressional approval is also at its best point in over 10 years per RCP (not that that's saying much).