2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Gracile]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/11/pelosi-super-pac-fall-ad-buys-248431

The House Majority PAC (D, Pelosi-aligned) is adding a second round of ad buys this fall (their first round of spending can be viewed here). This is the breakdown by market:

Spending Breakdown by Market:
Los Angeles: $3.25 million
New York City: $3.1 million
Las Vegas: $1 million
Binghamton, N.Y: $930,000
Albuquerque, N.M.: $920,000
Salt Lake City: $900,000
Atlanta: $860,000
Detroit: $775,000
Syracuse, N.Y: $730,000
Oklahoma City: $725,000
Fresno, Calif.: $675,000
Charleston, S.C.: $630,000
Champaign, Ill.: $510,000
Savannah, Ga.: $480,000
Bakersfield, Calif.: $410,000
El Paso, Texas: $350,000
Utica, N.Y.: $310,000
Pittsburgh: $300,000
Miami: $250,000
Philadelphia: $200,000
Odessa, Texas: $200,000
St. Louis: $165,000
La Crosse, Wis.: $120,000
Lansing, Mich.: $115,000
Phoenix: $100,000
Portland, Maine: $70,000
Bangor, Maine: $50,000
Presque Isle, Maine: $17,000

[Storr]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/11/pelosi-super-pac-fall-ad-buys-248431

The House Majority PAC (D, Pelosi-aligned) is adding a second round of ad buys this fall (their first round of spending can be viewed here). This is the breakdown by market:

Spending Breakdown by Market:
Los Angeles: $3.25 million
New York City: $3.1 million
Las Vegas: $1 million
Binghamton, N.Y: $930,000
Albuquerque, N.M.: $920,000
Salt Lake City: $900,000
Atlanta: $860,000
Detroit: $775,000
Syracuse, N.Y: $730,000
Oklahoma City: $725,000
Fresno, Calif.: $675,000
Charleston, S.C.: $630,000
Champaign, Ill.: $510,000
Savannah, Ga.: $480,000
Bakersfield, Calif.: $410,000
El Paso, Texas: $350,000
Utica, N.Y.: $310,000
Pittsburgh: $300,000
Miami: $250,000
Philadelphia: $200,000
Odessa, Texas: $200,000
St. Louis: $165,000
La Crosse, Wis.: $120,000
Lansing, Mich.: $115,000
Phoenix: $100,000
Portland, Maine: $70,000
Bangor, Maine: $50,000
Presque Isle, Maine: $17,000

Odessa, Texas? I suppose that's for TX-23.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/11/pelosi-super-pac-fall-ad-buys-248431

The House Majority PAC (D, Pelosi-aligned) is adding a second round of ad buys this fall (their first round of spending can be viewed here). This is the breakdown by market:

Spending Breakdown by Market:
Los Angeles: $3.25 million
New York City: $3.1 million
Las Vegas: $1 million
Binghamton, N.Y: $930,000
Albuquerque, N.M.: $920,000
Salt Lake City: $900,000
Atlanta: $860,000
Detroit: $775,000
Syracuse, N.Y: $730,000
Oklahoma City: $725,000
Fresno, Calif.: $675,000
Charleston, S.C.: $630,000
Champaign, Ill.: $510,000
Savannah, Ga.: $480,000
Bakersfield, Calif.: $410,000
El Paso, Texas: $350,000
Utica, N.Y.: $310,000
Pittsburgh: $300,000
Miami: $250,000
Philadelphia: $200,000
Odessa, Texas: $200,000
St. Louis: $165,000
La Crosse, Wis.: $120,000
Lansing, Mich.: $115,000
Phoenix: $100,000
Portland, Maine: $70,000
Bangor, Maine: $50,000
Presque Isle, Maine: $17,000

Odessa, Texas? I suppose that's for TX-23.

And NM-02 I guess.

[Pollster]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/11/pelosi-super-pac-fall-ad-buys-248431

The House Majority PAC (D, Pelosi-aligned) is adding a second round of ad buys this fall (their first round of spending can be viewed here). This is the breakdown by market:

Spending Breakdown by Market:
Los Angeles: $3.25 million
New York City: $3.1 million
Las Vegas: $1 million
Binghamton, N.Y: $930,000
Albuquerque, N.M.: $920,000
Salt Lake City: $900,000
Atlanta: $860,000
Detroit: $775,000
Syracuse, N.Y: $730,000
Oklahoma City: $725,000
Fresno, Calif.: $675,000
Charleston, S.C.: $630,000
Champaign, Ill.: $510,000
Savannah, Ga.: $480,000
Bakersfield, Calif.: $410,000
El Paso, Texas: $350,000
Utica, N.Y.: $310,000
Pittsburgh: $300,000
Miami: $250,000
Philadelphia: $200,000
Odessa, Texas: $200,000
St. Louis: $165,000
La Crosse, Wis.: $120,000
Lansing, Mich.: $115,000
Phoenix: $100,000
Portland, Maine: $70,000
Bangor, Maine: $50,000
Presque Isle, Maine: $17,000

The Savannah buy seems quite large and disproportionate to the amount of SC-01 that is in it. I think we'll probably see that buy get scaled back, as I highly doubt they're targeting Carter or Allen.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Is he Allen West's long lost brother?

I remember when Allen West was a "rising star"^tm

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Jon Hoadley (a candidate in MI-03) has commissioned a poll for his race and comparable races in the same district.

Sample size: 400 likely voters
MoE 4.9%
Sampling period: May 2-5

Hoadley 38%
Upton 37%
Undecided 25%

At the presidential level:

Biden 47%
Trump 44%

At the senatorial level:

Peters 40%
James 39%

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Jon Hoadley (a candidate in MI-03) has commissioned a poll for his race and comparable races in the same district.

Sample size: 400 likely voters
MoE 4.9%
Sampling period: May 2-5

Hoadley 38%
Upton 37%
Undecided 25%

At the presidential level:

Biden 47%
Trump 44%

At the senatorial level:

Peters 40%
James 39%

MI-06 but Trump is screwed if this is accurate. Whitmer won by 9 and couldn't win this district.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Is he Allen West's long lost brother?

I remember when Allen West was a "rising star"^tm

Allen Keys too.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1259923890664615936

Its getting better !

This is the R incumbent for Nebraska 3rd(its fine to do an endorsement the day before the primary)
But he actually linked to the 11th reddest district in the nation the day before the primary which means the money is absolutely useless.

Actually tbh this district was competitive in 2006 so maybe tossup/tilt D IMHO?

[libertpaulian]

Dems are buying ads in Savannah but not Indianapolis?  WTF?

[Brittain33]

Dems are buying ads in Savannah but not Indianapolis?  WTF?

Why would you be surprised by prioritizing SC-1 over IN-5?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

[libertpaulian]

Dems are buying ads in Savannah but not Indianapolis?  WTF?

Why would you be surprised by prioritizing SC-1 over IN-5?

Didn't know that Savannah was in the SC-01 media market.  I thought they were trying to target an obscure Georgia seat.  Disregard then.

[Pollster]

Dems are buying ads in Savannah but not Indianapolis?  WTF?

Why would you be surprised by prioritizing SC-1 over IN-5?

Didn't know that Savannah was in the SC-01 media market.  I thought they were trying to target an obscure Georgia seat.  Disregard then.

I was actually somewhat mistaken when I predicted this buy would be rolled back. Only Beaufort County in the district is in the Savannah market, and it was 54-46 Arrington in 2018 (was 55-41 Trump). Definitely an area where Dems seem to be slowly making gains and where Cunningham can improve.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1257286796523814914
Trump is actually endorsing the grift
.

Wow hes endorsing someone in a district Republicans have no chance in. But if donors want to waste their money on a safe district be my guest.

[lfromnj]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

[lfromnj]

To show how strong Davis is as a fundraiser, she literally raised 1.2 million in a Quarter as a house candidate !. Compare that to Chip Roy's 450k

[Gracile]

Judging by the markets listed, it seems like the large focus of these initial buys is to spend money in areas that have Democratic incumbents, especially in markets with the party's most competitive seats (SC-01, OK-05, ME-02, NM-02, NY-22, etc.) and markets that are just incredibly expensive (NY/LA). It's possible that they can reserve time in for some of their offensive seats later.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

Genuine question -- why not run in TX-10? Unlike TX-21, it's actually a Rourke district and not a Cruz one

[lfromnj]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

Genuine question -- why not run in TX-10? Unlike TX-21, it's actually a Rourke district and not a Cruz one

The difference was literally +0.1 Cruz and +0.1 Beto so almost negligible and Chip Roy is probably a little bit of a worse candidate(like half a point but helps a lot at the margins) Id still bet against Davis but not by much(like somewhere between a 35 to 40% chance for her)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

Genuine question -- why not run in TX-10? Unlike TX-21, it's actually a Rourke district and not a Cruz one

The difference was literally +0.1 Cruz and +0.1 Beto so almost negligible and Chip Roy is probably a little bit of a worse candidate(like half a point but helps a lot at the margins) Id still bet against Davis but not by much(like somewhere between a 35 to 40% chance for her)

Got it. No idea why, thought it was like +1 on either side for some reason

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

There’s a good chance Trump loses TX-21, TX-10 and TX-31. These seats were all within five points in 2018 even after being written off by the DCCC

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1260393335254142976

[lfromnj]

Yeah thats an awful poll for Eastman for an internal poll. I highly doubt Biden's carrying NE 2 by 11 points.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yeah thats an awful poll for Eastman for an internal poll. I highly doubt Biden's carrying NE 2 by 11 points.

The DCCC weren't especially friendly to Eastman prior to her second nomination. I don't expect their polls for her (up to this point, at least) to be much friendlier than NRSC polls for Kobach.