2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth:

https://www.insidernj.com/monmouth-poll-competitive-house-races-nj-districts-2-3-5-7-11/?fbclid=IwAR0_MG4LnKRLuGTN_f6k8mv3c7yNuD4pt7O29A07NeKXid0zVuSiqwE-DHY

Republicans are winning the aggregate ballot in NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 by 46-45. At this point in 2018, Democrats were leading 49-42. Wonder how much of the swing is from NJ-02 alone.

Eh, I would take all these as a grain of salt. The # of responses they might've gotten from each district would be like <100 so swings are very easy. I don't for a second believe that that Dems went from +9 (their actual margin) to R+1 in the totality of these districts, especially when, minus Van Drews, many people like Sherill, Kim, etc. could be looking at even bigger margins than 2018.

[Frenchrepublican]

I think the PA-01 change may be a bit much. This is a presidential year, so even if the nominee is weak, it's still possible they're taken over the finish line by Biden.

Fitzpatrick is someone who has proven ability to run ahead of the ticket. In 2018, the district was Casey +15 and Wolf +19, and he still managed to win, even with a weak opponent. He has one of, if not the, most moderate voting records of any House Republican, and his very popular late brother was his immediate predecessor.

Chet Edwards and Mike Coffman say hi.

Very bad comparison

[Frenchrepublican]

Monmouth:

https://www.insidernj.com/monmouth-poll-competitive-house-races-nj-districts-2-3-5-7-11/?fbclid=IwAR0_MG4LnKRLuGTN_f6k8mv3c7yNuD4pt7O29A07NeKXid0zVuSiqwE-DHY

Republicans are winning the aggregate ballot in NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 by 46-45. At this point in 2018, Democrats were leading 49-42. Wonder how much of the swing is from NJ-02 alone.

The margin of error must be quite high, but it's clear that Van Drew has done the good choice from a electoral perspective.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX with Latinos as well as FL as well as KS and AZ are gonna be major battlegrounds in 2020

[Pollster]

Monmouth:

https://www.insidernj.com/monmouth-poll-competitive-house-races-nj-districts-2-3-5-7-11/?fbclid=IwAR0_MG4LnKRLuGTN_f6k8mv3c7yNuD4pt7O29A07NeKXid0zVuSiqwE-DHY

Republicans are winning the aggregate ballot in NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 by 46-45. At this point in 2018, Democrats were leading 49-42. Wonder how much of the swing is from NJ-02 alone.

A lot is probably coming from NJ-11 as well, where generic R is probably still quite competitive with if not outright leading generic D. Of course, Sherrill is not generic D and is favored in the race.

[lfromnj]

Btw Pete Defazio got outraised by his challenger
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/20/1938838/-Daily-Kos-Elections-1Q-2020-House-fundraising-reports-roundup
https://twitter.com/alekskarlatos
Should keep an eye on the seat just incase but I doubt Defazio will lose especialy with COH as his challenger is spending a lot too.

[Nyvin]

I found it kinda interesting the independent in Alaska has more cash on hand and outraised Don Young.

[Calthrina950]

I found it kinda interesting the independent in Alaska has more cash on hand and outraised Don Young.

This is not going to matter. Young will win again as he always has. He won't leave that seat until he's carried out on a gurney and buried in the ground.

[Frenchrepublican]

I found it kinda interesting the independent in Alaska has more cash on hand and outraised Don Young.

This is not going to matter. Young will win again as he always has. He won't leave that seat until he's carried out on a gurney and buried in the ground.

Yeah, in 2018 many people thought he was vulnerable and he still won easily.

[wbrocks67]

This poll is pretty much useless, but here it is:

UT-04 (Scott Rasmussen, 4/19-4/24)
McAdams 36%
Generic Republican 34%
Someone else 9%
Not Sure 22%

However, McAdams has a 47/29 approval rating in the district.

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/4/24/21234551/poll-utahns-split-ben-mcadams-democrat-reelection-republican-pick-unsure-4th-district

[InheritTheWind]

I found it kinda interesting the independent in Alaska has more cash on hand and outraised Don Young.

This is not going to matter. Young will win again as he always has. He won't leave that seat until he's carried out on a gurney and buried in the ground.

Yeah, in 2018 many people thought he was vulnerable and he still won easily.

Meh, he only won by 6.5 percentage points. I still don't think he's at risk in 2020, but let's not be revisionist.

[wbrocks67]

Climate Nexus, April 19, 1917 RV

GCB: D 50, R 40

https://climatenexus.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Coronavirus-National-Poll-Toplines-and-Crosstabs-FINAL.pdf

The average for the House looks about +8-10 recently.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are gonna get Romnied. Once Selzer starts polling IA, that state will start get focused on again, for the Senate and Congressional races

[Pollster]

King up by 7 points (41% to 34%) in a Feenstra internal.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov

GCB D+8

Dems 46, Reps 38

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/4qtpeqbqm8/econTabReport.pdf

[wbrocks67]

The GCB in New Hampshire is D+7, 49-42.

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/stanselmpollapril2020-1588192419.pdf

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Sabato moves AK-SEN and SC-SEN from Safe R to Likely R

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1255809459030568966?s=20

Cook also moves SC-SEN from Safe R to Likely R

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1255789357081989121?s=20

[Roll Roons]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941431/-Even-if-Republicans-run-the-table-that-won-t-be-enough-to-take-back-the-House-our-new-ratings-show

Daily Kos came out with House ratings. For the most part, they actually seem pretty reasonable, though I might move IA-01, CA-21 and CA-48 (especially if they include FL-26, NJ-07 and TX-07) to tossup.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941431/-Even-if-Republicans-run-the-table-that-won-t-be-enough-to-take-back-the-House-our-new-ratings-show

Daily Kos came out with House ratings. For the most part, they actually seem pretty reasonable, though I might move IA-01, CA-21 and CA-48 (especially if they include FL-26, NJ-07 and TX-07) to tossup.

IA-1 and IA-2 to the left of TX-7, NJ-7, FL-26 is just nutty. Those are two Trump seats with Republican state legislators running. The others are likely to be big Biden districts

[lfromnj]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941431/-Even-if-Republicans-run-the-table-that-won-t-be-enough-to-take-back-the-House-our-new-ratings-show

Daily Kos came out with House ratings. For the most part, they actually seem pretty reasonable, though I might move IA-01, CA-21 and CA-48 (especially if they include FL-26, NJ-07 and TX-07) to tossup.

Would also move TX 24 to tossup, its a carbon copy of GA 7th(+23 Romney to +6.5 Trump and solid margins in 2018 statewide races)

[DaWN]

CA-21 anything other than Safe D: Trash

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1255264363654656000?s=20

Interesting that AL/GA/TX/ are not on the list.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1255264363654656000?s=20

Interesting that AL/GA/TX/ are not on the list.

It’s more confusing why Iowa is on the list. The Texas Senate race is all but over with the duds we have running, even if Biden wins Texas. Alabama is a lost cause, and both parties are stupidly treating Georgia like it’s Oklahoma or something

[morgieb]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941431/-Even-if-Republicans-run-the-table-that-won-t-be-enough-to-take-back-the-House-our-new-ratings-show

Daily Kos came out with House ratings. For the most part, they actually seem pretty reasonable, though I might move IA-01, CA-21 and CA-48 (especially if they include FL-26, NJ-07 and TX-07) to tossup.

Would also move TX 24 to tossup, its a carbon copy of GA 7th(+23 Romney to +6.5 Trump and solid margins in 2018 statewide races)

The primary matters there IMO, though even with Valenzuela it's still a toss-up (would be far more of a problem if she was a Berniecrat rather than a Warrencrat)

[Gracile]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941431/-Even-if-Republicans-run-the-table-that-won-t-be-enough-to-take-back-the-House-our-new-ratings-show

Daily Kos came out with House ratings. For the most part, they actually seem pretty reasonable, though I might move IA-01, CA-21 and CA-48 (especially if they include FL-26, NJ-07 and TX-07) to tossup.

Would also move TX 24 to tossup, its a carbon copy of GA 7th(+23 Romney to +6.5 Trump and solid margins in 2018 statewide races)

The primary matters there IMO, though even with Valenzuela it's still a toss-up (would be far more of a problem if she was a Berniecrat rather than a Warrencrat)

Valenzuela is a pretty compelling candidate in her own right and she has some pretty big endorsements behind her in addition to Warren (namely EMILY's List), so I wouldn't underestimate her. That said, this district should be one of the easier Texas districts to flip based not only on its 2016 trend but because Beto O'Rourke won it and several other statewide Democrats won or came close to winning it.