2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

[MT Treasurer]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

It’d be pretty funny if we see Trump and Ernst easily win Iowa but Democrats sweep all four of the House seats. I actually think if King makes it out of the primary on June 2 that he might even be a bit of an underdog after him going even further off the deep end with racist stuff since the 2018 election and Republicans cutting him loose. Of course, it would only be a one-term rental there, but it’d still be pretty incredible to see the ticket splitting in that seat in particular.

[MT Treasurer]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

It’d be pretty funny if we see Trump and Ernst easily win Iowa but Democrats sweep all four of the House seats. I actually think if King makes it out of the primary on June 2 that he might even be a bit of an underdog after him going even further off the deep end with racist stuff since the 2018 election and Republicans cutting him loose. Of course, it would only be a one-term rental there, but it’d still be pretty incredible to see the ticket splitting in that seat in particular.

If Democrats actually sweep all four of the state's House seats, the "IA is not a Republican-leaning state, it’s just a Trump state that’s Tossup/Lean D again" takes will be insufferable. But boy, 2022 would be a colossal massacre in IA under a Democratic presidency (they’d probably lose all four House seats except maybe Axne's).

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

It’d be pretty funny if we see Trump and Ernst easily win Iowa but Democrats sweep all four of the House seats. I actually think if King makes it out of the primary on June 2 that he might even be a bit of an underdog after him going even further off the deep end with racist stuff since the 2018 election and Republicans cutting him loose. Of course, it would only be a one-term rental there, but it’d still be pretty incredible to see the ticket splitting in that seat in particular.

If Democrats actually sweep all four of the state's House seats, the "IA is not a Republican-leaning state, it’s just a Trump state that’s Tossup/Lean D again" takes will be insufferable. But boy, 2022 would be a colossal massacre in IA under a Democratic presidency (they’d probably lose all four House seats except maybe Axne's).

In that fun hypothetical scenario, I think Scholten would possibly be a contender for setting a new record for a losing incumbent. Joseph Cao lost by 32% I believe, so that would be the mark to beat

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

I am stunned at how well Ernst has done in the fake moderate game v Collins.

[morgieb]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

I am stunned at how well Ernst has done in the fake moderate game v Collins.

Well Collins represents a Democratic state whereas Iowa is increasingly Republican.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

I am stunned at how well Ernst has done in the fake moderate game v Collins.

I don’t think Ernst even tries to pretend to be a moderate and she doesn’t need to when she represents an increasingly red state

[Roll Roons]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

It’d be pretty funny if we see Trump and Ernst easily win Iowa but Democrats sweep all four of the House seats. I actually think if King makes it out of the primary on June 2 that he might even be a bit of an underdog after him going even further off the deep end with racist stuff since the 2018 election and Republicans cutting him loose. Of course, it would only be a one-term rental there, but it’d still be pretty incredible to see the ticket splitting in that seat in particular.

If Democrats actually sweep all four of the state's House seats, the "IA is not a Republican-leaning state, it’s just a Trump state that’s Tossup/Lean D again" takes will be insufferable. But boy, 2022 would be a colossal massacre in IA under a Democratic presidency (they’d probably lose all four House seats except maybe Axne's).

In that fun hypothetical scenario, I think Scholten would possibly be a contender for setting a new record for a losing incumbent. Joseph Cao lost by 32% I believe, so that would be the mark to beat

Honestly, he might as well run for governor or Senate at that point. Probably a better bet than getting blanched.

[wbrocks67]

New CNN poll has Dems +9 in GCB, 53-44

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/03/09/rel2a.-.2020.pdf

[Nyvin]

Collins has dropped out of the Dem Primary for MT-Sen,   Bullock has the field pretty much cleared now for nomination.

[lfromnj]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/03/11/iowans-lean-toward-republicans-congress-election-2020-iowa-poll/4978477002/

D's down in all 4 Iowa districts in a SELZER poll!
Anyway don't worry too much as its a smallish sample for each district but if you average the 3 districts  you still have D's down by like 3 or 4 points which is not pretty.

[Brittain33]

Collins has dropped out

Do not tease us like this

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/03/11/iowans-lean-toward-republicans-congress-election-2020-iowa-poll/4978477002/

D's down in all 4 Iowa districts in a SELZER poll!
Anyway don't worry too much as its a smallish sample for each district but if you average the 3 districts  you still have D's down by like 3 or 4 points which is not pretty.

Useless since it didn’t poll named people, but Iowa is going to be a Democratic wipeout in a Biden midterm

[lfromnj]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/03/11/iowans-lean-toward-republicans-congress-election-2020-iowa-poll/4978477002/

D's down in all 4 Iowa districts in a SELZER poll!
Anyway don't worry too much as its a smallish sample for each district but if you average the 3 districts  you still have D's down by like 3 or 4 points which is not pretty.

Useless since it didn’t poll named people, but Iowa is going to be a Democratic wipeout in a Biden midterm

A selzer poll isn't useless lol.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/03/11/iowans-lean-toward-republicans-congress-election-2020-iowa-poll/4978477002/

D's down in all 4 Iowa districts in a SELZER poll!
Anyway don't worry too much as its a smallish sample for each district but if you average the 3 districts  you still have D's down by like 3 or 4 points which is not pretty.

Useless since it didn’t poll named people, but Iowa is going to be a Democratic wipeout in a Biden midterm

A selzer poll isn't useless lol.

Generic ballot is useless if it doesn’t name candidates no matter how good the pollster’s track record. Steve King for example is obviously going to do a lot worse than Generic Republican

[MT Treasurer]

OK-05 Amber Integrated (very small sample size, so take it with a grain of salt):

44% Republican challenger
40% Kendra Horn (D, inc.)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200311_OK.pdf

[Lisa's voting Biden]

GOP internal for TX-07 has Republican tied with Fletcher

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237945520892624896?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GOP internal for TX-07 has Republican tied with Fletcher

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237945520892624896?s=20

LOL Likely D.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

OK-05 Amber Integrated (very small sample size, so take it with a grain of salt):

44% Republican challenger
40% Kendra Horn (D, inc.)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200311_OK.pdf

If Republicans can’t flip this one, they won’t be flipping much at all

[Gracile]

National Journal's Hotline has released its "House Power Rankings" of the 20 seats most likely to flip:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/705331?unlock=T6IBGP736CBYJRW3

1. TX-23
2. OK-05
3. SC-01
4. NM-02
5. NY-22
6. GA-07
7. IA-01
8. GA-06
9. MN-07
10. IA-03
11. ME-02
12. TX-24
13. NY-11
14. CA-21
15. PA-10
16. TX-07
17. NJ-03
18. IL-13
19. CA-48
20. TX-22

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

MN-07 should be up near the top and TX-07 replaces entirely with IA-02. CA-21 shouldn’t be in the top 20, and instead PA-01 or TX-10/21/31

[DaWN]

CA-21 shouldn't be on any list of competitive districts. I'm usually willing to tolerate the pundits' bullsh!t but a Clinton+15 district is not flipping R in a presidential year, even taking that all important #candidatequality into account.

[wbrocks67]

MN-07 should be up near the top and TX-07 replaces entirely with IA-02. CA-21 shouldn’t be in the top 20, and instead PA-01 or TX-10/21/31

PA-01 is a question mark. The one recruit who had promise dropped out, so now who knows who the winner of the primary will be, we'll have to see how much $$ they raise too bc right now it's not looking good for the Dems. It's a presidential year though so that could help offset Fitz's advantage

[Roll Roons]

If TX-07 and CA-48 are on the list then NJ-07 should be as well.