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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 166172 times)
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825
« on: January 22, 2020, 06:13:26 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on January 22, 2020, 11:54:12 AM


Sad!
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2020, 06:51:54 PM »
Quote from: politicallefty on February 15, 2020, 06:53:04 AM

Republicans won the popular vote in Texas in 2018 by 3.4%. A simple uniform swing would easily give Democrats a majority of the Congressional delegation. Even a neutral environment in November could easily see TX-22, TX-23, and TX-24 all go Democratic. At that point, Texas would only be 20R-16D. I think the next three top targets after those, in order, would be TX-21, TX-10, and TX-31.

Just 4 years ago, in 2016 the GCB in Texas was won by Republicans by 18-19%.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2020, 08:26:55 PM »
Quote from: Orser67 on March 04, 2020, 06:35:15 PM

People are really underrating the possibility that 2020 will turn into a pretty decent-sized victory for Dems. I'm not saying that swing state polls aren't important, but it's a pretty bad sign for the GOP that RCP has the generic ballot at D+8.3 and has Biden up 5 over Trump in national polling.

2020 is going to be a double landslide for Democrats just like 06 and 08 were. I am predicting Democrats pick up around 10-15 net.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825
« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2020, 08:28:18 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on March 08, 2020, 04:55:00 PM
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on March 08, 2020, 11:15:59 AM
DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

I am stunned at how well Ernst has done in the fake moderate game v Collins.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825
« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2020, 06:54:23 PM »
Quote from: President Pericles on May 04, 2020, 06:07:12 PM
So far 2020 is looking like 2008 at the congressional level (with 2018 being 2006 of course), rather than a reversion to a more neutral environment like 2012 and 2016 were. This could change, but Democrats have been polling at blue wave levels basically since Trump took office so it doesn't seem likely to change.

Dems won the House PV by 11 points in 2008, that is insane. I think that the Dems will net 10-15 house seats in 2020.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825
« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2020, 07:08:07 PM »
Quote from: lfromnj on May 06, 2020, 07:15:57 PM
Quote from: ajc0918 on May 06, 2020, 05:59:45 PM
Apparently, Riggleman in VA-05 is expected to lose the nomination to Bob Good.

https://twitter.com/vapoliticalnews/status/1258150366060953600?s=21

This probably moves the seat from Likely R to Lean R.
It's a corey Stewart seat.

Confederate KKKorey.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825
« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2020, 08:48:53 PM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on May 11, 2020, 12:46:21 PM
I remember when Allen West was a "rising star"tm

Allen Keys too.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825
« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2020, 10:24:32 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on June 07, 2020, 12:13:50 PM
Dems are going to increase their seats in the House at this point.


Yes, I think the Dems will net 10-15.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825
« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2020, 06:29:52 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on July 07, 2020, 03:21:46 PM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 02, 2020, 09:36:03 AM
It'll be +20% when the October surprise that Cooney was actually born in New Hampshire is revealed.

Trust me, if Cooney had been born in NH, 95% of my posts on this forum would have been deleted by now and I’d be busy doing other things at this very moment. Wink

Fun fact: Cooney was actually delivered in D.C. and only arrived in Montana a few days later. #CarpetbaggingCooney will be DOA the minute someone adds his birthplace to his Wikipedia entry because Montana's nativist streak™ is just that strong (or so I’ve been told).

District of Cooney, not good!
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825
« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2020, 07:02:29 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2020, 02:01:11 AM by Teflon Joe »
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on July 16, 2020, 10:42:50 AM
Quote from: libertpaulian on July 16, 2020, 10:28:26 AM
Wait...they're targeting OH-10 but not OH-12?!


Troy Balderson is a total power bottom daddy so you are correct.

He is a total chad who could bench press a whole mountain, don't even bother trying to go after him Democrats.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825
« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2020, 11:39:03 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on July 17, 2020, 09:32:46 PM
The House is gonna stay the same and the Senate is probably gonna be tied

Dems are going to go over 250 seats this year.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825
« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2020, 09:58:47 PM »
Quote from: Monstro on July 27, 2020, 03:34:40 PM
Quote from: LCameronOR on July 27, 2020, 01:51:44 PM
This district was Trump +15 in 2016. If this is anywhere close to reality, Biden wins Texas.

This was also Cruz +5 in 2018. Seems clear to me that Texas is moving leftwards at a pace none of us could've imagined & that Beto's 2018 performance is closer to the Dems current floor than ceiling.

Like how the California GOPs losses in 2018 extended far beyond the House districts in Orange County, I think Texas is gonna provide some shocks and surprises this November.

Devin Nunes has to go as well. He won by only by 5 points in 2018, people talk about him as a super safe incumbent.
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