Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[oldtimer]

Putin has given condolences to Prigozhin's family.

Next, he will order a state funeral, with all flags ordered lowered to half staff. At the funeral, he will be the first coffin bearer, posthumously award Prigozhin a medal, and then make the eulogy.

Following that, Putin will order lots of public buildings and places to be named after Prigozhin.

Just like Stalin with Kirov.

[oldtimer]

From Bloomberg: "Ukraine’s Slow Offensive Leaves Allies Worried, Putin Buoyed"

Ukraine’s allies now worry the war is dragging into a long fight that may strengthen Vladimir Putin’s hand as hopes fade that Kyiv’s forces will deliver a definitive breakthrough this year.

If fighting grinds to an impasse over the winter, “it’s a really big problem, there’s going to be war fatigue,” said Samantha de Bendern, an associate fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. “The US is going to be less and less interested in what’s happening in Ukraine and it’s going to be more and more difficult for Europeans to convince the Americans that Ukraine is an American problem.”

Give up Jaichind, even if Russia wins Putin will still purge you.

[oldtimer]

Why is this forum so quiet right now?

Because nothing of substance has happened for months now.

[oldtimer]

SirWoodbury hasn't posted since August 23, 2023, the day that Prigozhin's plane was shot down.

Does anyone else wonder if he was on that plane?

I think he's far more sensible than Jairchild.

He perhaps realised that no matter what, Putin was going to purge him and he left.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1699779179519349036

The actual reporting is even worse:

Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson, whose new book is set to be released by Simon & Schuster on September 12.

Musk was soon on the phone with President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, the chairman of the joint chiefs, Gen. Mark Milley, and the Russian ambassador to the US to address anxieties from Washington, DC, to Moscow, writes Isaacson.

Meanwhile, Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister of Ukraine, was pleading with Musk to restore connectivity for the submarine drones by telling Musk about their capabilities in a text message, according to Isaacson. “I just want you—the person who is changing the world through technology—to know this,” Fedorov told Musk.

If this is true, it seems pretty incontrovertible that Musk has become a security threat to the United States, and something will need to be done about it.

LOL, it's his product, he can do whatever he wants with it. Security threat, someone would think Kim Jong Un or God forbid Putin is talking

“The Pentagon disclosed on Thursday that it has signed a contract to provide SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service in Ukraine, nearly eight months after Elon Musk, the company's owner, threatened to terminate access unless the U.S. government paid for it.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/starlink-ukraine-pentagon-elon-musk/

I doubt that it is in the contract that Elon Musk can shut down the service whenever he wants.

I think the only thing interesting that this episode has disclosed, is the validity of suspicions that Starlink was just a Pentagon black project, using Musk as a front.
In order to control drones from thousands of miles away.

It never made any commercial sence, but as a military telecoms project it made perfect sense.

[oldtimer]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/russian-budget-swings-to-surplus-despite-plunging-energy-revenue

"Russian Budget Swings to Surplus Despite Plunging Energy Revenue"

The surplus in August reached almost 456 billion rubles ($4.7 billion) in one of the biggest monthly hauls this year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published on Friday. At a televised government meeting just hours earlier, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin put the latest surplus at 230 billion rubles.

Just to be clear, this is a feature of a weak RUB.   The Russian government has a tradeoff policy nob when it comes to the RUB.  A strong RUB means lower inflation but a greater budget deficit.  A weaker RUB means higher inflation but a better picture of the budget deficit.  This became a problem earlier in 2023 when energy fell and a strong RUB hammered the Russian fiscal picture so a need to shift to a weak RUB was needed even if that meant higher inflation.

Energy prices are back up.  If the Russian government expected it to stay up then it will most likely move RUB to be stronger to help on the inflation front.  They do not seem to be doing that which means they expect the world economy to be weaker than expected later in 2023 and 2024 in which case energy prices will fall again and the RUB needs to stay weak to keep the Russian budget deficit in check.

What a bunch of scrooges, they prefer to lose the war rather than run a budget deficit.

[oldtimer]

78% of Ukrainians blame Zelenskyy for corruption

According to a recent poll published by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, 78% of surveyed Ukrainians believe that the president bears direct responsibility for corruption in the government and regional administrations. Only 18% of respondents disagreed with this statement.

Older Ukrainians seem more demanding of the head of state than the young people, reads the report. The share of respondents who think the president is responsible for corruption ranges from 70% to 81% among people aged 18-29 and those over 60, respectively.

British people overwhelmingly approved Churchill's wartime leadership and yet when the first post-war elections were held he lost in a landslide.

Churchill was the Boris Johnson of his day.

In the good and the bad way, which is why he was tossed out on the first opportunity.

However Churchill's second stint as PM in the 1950's was far far better, and created the myth of Churchill.

Best PM the UK had in the 20th century, but not in the period most people associate today.

[oldtimer]

...perhaps it's because Israel has more in common with Russia than the United States and other Western democracies.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1701732985631109468

Russian Jews make a significant portion of the Israeli jewish population these days.

Plus Israel has become an increasingly partisan issue in America, with Democrats becoming more hostile vs Republicans warming up.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1702717155521831010?s=12
😗

Now this would be amazing if it were true. The worst of the trash is finally getting taken out in Russia.

If that is correct, a big if, then siding with Putin against Prigozin didn't save Kadyrov from being assasinated by Putin anyway.

Basically they all did the same mistake as the soviet military and the politburo vs Stalin, they should have killed him first.

[oldtimer]

Ukraine destroyed the S-400 air defense before going open-season on targets in the Crimea. Wiki states that Russia has one regiment of the more advanced S-500 air defense system, but it's understandably deployed in Moscow.

Hence, all the Russian-controlled territories have effectively no air defense. The only constraint is the amount of ammo at Ukraine's disposal.

What air defense doing?

Large complex air defence systems have never worked in practice against small targets, plus they have missiles but few in number against thousands of drones.

A % of drones will always get through and hit their target.

So Electronic Warfare will take over, attacking their radio controls or their electronic guidance systems  (Starlink , GPS ect.), probably high energy microwave pulses or anti-satellite weapons.

But you only need 1 drone to get through to destroy a stationary target on the surface.

[oldtimer]

Typical russian incompetence.

"What... all of it!?
All of it

The whole squadron?!
The whole squadron

Including the flagship?!
Including the flagship. Including the admiral

Including the admiral.... "

[oldtimer]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-22/russia-plans-huge-defense-spending-hike-in-2024-as-war-drags-on

"Russia Plans Huge Defense Spending Hike in 2024 as War Drags"

Russia's defense spending in 2024 will be 6% of GDP when compared to 3.4% in 2023

6% wont be enough , they need at least 20%.

[oldtimer]

Zelensky: we will severely punish the Russian Black Sea fleet
Advisors: with what ships?
Zelensky: ships? Where we're going we don't need…ships. Not when you have drones. And missiles.

*proceeds to make Sevastopol living hell for the Russian sailors*

That reality will change the naval balance in small seas and straits for quite some time, like the Persian Gulf.

[oldtimer]

Zelensky: we will severely punish the Russian Black Sea fleet
Advisors: with what ships?
Zelensky: ships? Where we're going we don't need…ships. Not when you have drones. And missiles.

*proceeds to make Sevastopol living hell for the Russian sailors*

That reality will change the naval balance in small seas and straits for quite some time, like the Persian Gulf.

Good times to be a drones manufacturer and/or missile producer. This war is potentially going to boost drone technology significantly.

America will be at a disadvantage though, because the cost of drones and missiles is but a tiny fraction of an aircraft carrier.

Suddenly anyone can sink America's fleet with a fraction of it's budget.

[oldtimer]

Zelensky: we will severely punish the Russian Black Sea fleet
Advisors: with what ships?
Zelensky: ships? Where we're going we don't need…ships. Not when you have drones. And missiles.

*proceeds to make Sevastopol living hell for the Russian sailors*

That reality will change the naval balance in small seas and straits for quite some time, like the Persian Gulf.

Good times to be a drones manufacturer and/or missile producer. This war is potentially going to boost drone technology significantly.

America will be at a disadvantage though, because the cost of drones and missiles is but a tiny fraction of an aircraft carrier.

Suddenly anyone can sink America's fleet with a fraction of it's budget.

America would need to invest in drones too, if the technology is boosted enough.
Would seem easiest to use carrier group ships as mobile drone attack platforms, but history shows that predicting the future of war can be a very fraught task.

But America already has that technology for decades, people even joked about Obama and Drone strikes, it's only now that others are catching up on it.

[oldtimer]

Zelensky: we will severely punish the Russian Black Sea fleet
Advisors: with what ships?
Zelensky: ships? Where we're going we don't need…ships. Not when you have drones. And missiles.

*proceeds to make Sevastopol living hell for the Russian sailors*

That reality will change the naval balance in small seas and straits for quite some time, like the Persian Gulf.

Good times to be a drones manufacturer and/or missile producer. This war is potentially going to boost drone technology significantly.

America will be at a disadvantage though, because the cost of drones and missiles is but a tiny fraction of an aircraft carrier.

Suddenly anyone can sink America's fleet with a fraction of it's budget.

America would need to invest in drones too, if the technology is boosted enough.
Would seem easiest to use carrier group ships as mobile drone attack platforms, but history shows that predicting the future of war can be a very fraught task.

But America already has that technology for decades, people even joked about Obama and Drone strikes, it's only now that others are catching up on it.

Ah, fair enough.
One can at least count on the R&D community within the US governmental apparatus to think of ways to blunt this. In combination with diplomacy and other levers.

They are probably making new versions of UFO's (stealth and drones are older versions).

[oldtimer]

NYT map of gains/losses since Jan 1 2023.  So far in 2023 it is a war of inches.

Now this is the only interesting thing you've posted about this War.

[oldtimer]

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/saudi-arabia-and-russia-win-big-in-gamble-on-oil-cuts-9a1834c6

"Saudi Arabia and Russia Win Big in Gamble on Oil Cuts"

Oil revenue in Saudi Arabia this quarter is likely up by nearly $30 million a day, or about 5.7%, compared with the April-to-June period, analysis by Energy Aspects shows. For the whole three-month period, that would equate to about $2.6 billion. Russian oil revenue is likely up by about $2.8 billion, the data show.

A team effort between Russia and Saudi Arabia grabs more revenue even with less oil being exported.  I expect a sharp economic slow down in USA and EU next year so this game will reverse on Russia and Saudi Arabia soon.

This is the only 2nd thing of any interest that you have ever posted on this thread.

The G7 price cap for russian Oil is practically gone in international markets.

[oldtimer]

All of this discussion about Palestine and Israel is interesting, but where is the thread for updates on the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

That's basically last year's news.

Practically nothing has changed there for months.

[oldtimer]

Not good actually. One of the main critiques of the counteroffensive was that they used new brigades stuffed with green conscripts instead of reinforcing the battered but battle tested "old" brigades. These new brigades would suffer disproportionate casualties before they get used to and adapt to the realities of the battlefield.

They might not be just putting green conscripts in these new brigades though and honestly I’m not even sure that is what the issues was over still having too many commanders who still are practicing outdated Soviet doctrine tactics

I doubt it.

Lindsey Graham was very impressed about the planning.

But attacking the fortified strongpoints head on, while moving slowly on an open field, is very Russian.

[oldtimer]

What Middle East support? Iran and Syria are pro Russia, Jordan abandoned the Challenger deal, and Saudi Arabia has done nothing outside of small economic deals. Turkey is the only Middle East country that does anything for Ukraine and they aren’t going to abandon Ukraine over this as they a) want to become ingratiated into the West and b) the more Ukraine hurts Russia the better for them geopolitically

The Turkish position is both ridiculous and envious.

They are an ally and an enemy of everyone at the same time.

They are an ally of Israel, yet they give rocket fuel to Hamas.

They are an ally of Russia, yet they arm Ukraine.

They are an ally of America, yet they armed ISIS.

They are an ally of Germany, yet they distabilise them with migrant waves.

They are a juggler at a circus.

[oldtimer]

What a solid research basis it’s not like Russia would underreport their causalities via obituaries or something 🙄

Of course, they might and most likely would.  The key question is that unless the rate they underreport is going up the narrative is still there that the Russian casualty rate is falling since early 2023.

Except for the fact we have video evidence this week alone that would dispute that

The one thing that never makes any sense in this War is that both sides estimate enemy losses as lower than what their manpower shortages suggest.

Which is the opposite of the usual propaganda.

[oldtimer]

I don't find the prospect of WWIII all that likely. No major player wants a larger war. China wants to keep exporting stuff all over the world and, the US doesn't want to get entangled in another war on the other side of the World, the EU wants to focus on reforming, Russia wants to focus on its goals in Ukraine (bringing it back, or as much as it can gain control of, into the 'Russian world').

I think the most likely outcome at this point is a Korean style ceasefire/truce once Putin dies or is no longer in power due to other means. It's been made pretty clear he won't make peace as long as he's in power. He sees it as his historical mission to keep Ukraine in the "Russian world". That gives him no incentive to make peace. In a ceasefire, I'd assume Ukraine wouldn't accept Russian territorial claims and Russia won't accept Ukrainian territorial claims, but at least active fighting would stop.

Solidifying the frontlines into de facto borders would allow Ukraine to start to rebuild in the unoccupied areas. Hopefully Ukraine would eventually join the EU similar to how Cyprus joined in 2004 despite a significant portion of the island occupied by Turkish troops. Though that would mostly depend on political will among EU countries. As long as Ukraine is not territorially intact, it cannot join NATO. But it could be heavily supported by the US and other allies similarly to how South Korea has been for 70 years, enabling Ukraine to continue to defend itself.

Kim Il Sung agreed to a cease-fire, so why wouldn't Putin?

Stalin died first.

[oldtimer]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russian-president-vladimir-putin-says-women-need-to-exploit-potential-to-fullest-amid-labour-shortage-4699330

"Putin's Women In "Purely Male Profession" Message Amid Labour Shortage"

With the Russian economy in overdrive due to the war production surge, there is a clear labor shortage that Putin wants to fill by mobilizing women into the economy.  This is the opposite of Xi in the PRC where he is now pushing traditional gender roles which would be Putin's natural instincts. Such is the imperative of the war economy.  Another thing Putin should consider is for Russia to invest in factories in Central Asian economies to augment Russia's production base.

What War Economy ?

Russia's capacity utilization is stagnant at 61%, America is at 78%.

In a War Economy capacity utilization would be 100% and in a stagnant peacefull economy 80%.

The USSR had capacity to produce about 1.5 million vehicles, now Russia makes 50k.
The USSR could produce a few hundred planes a year, now Russia makes half a dozen.

Russia still has half of the Soviet industrial capacity, but does nothing with it even in a major war.

[oldtimer]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/12/13/remarks-by-president-biden-and-president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine-in-joint-press-conference-2/

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  We want to see Ukraine win the war.  And, as I’ve said before, winning means Ukraine is a sovereign, independent nation and — that can afford to defend itself today and deter further aggression.  That’s our objective.

Note winning according to Biden no longer includes Ukraine joining NATO or any mention of Ukraine's territorial integrity. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/opinion/ukraine-military-aid.html

"Ukraine Doesn’t Need All Its Territory to Defeat Putin"

More shifting of goalposts on defining victory coming from the USA.

Of course they don't need to, until now they are winning simply by holding or capturing all the usefull or strategic territory, like the intersection in Uman, the factories of Kharkov, the bridges on the Dnieper ect.

But if by "Defeating Putin" is to remove Putin, they have to go to Moscow.