Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.rp.pl/swiat/art39049061-polska-zaczela-wydawac-ukrainie-mezczyzn-ktorzy-wyjechali-z-kraju

Polish media: Poland began to extradite men to Ukraine who had left the country

It seems there are 80K mobilizable Ukrainians in Poland.  Poland is now taking steps to expel them back to Ukraine

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.rp.pl/swiat/art39049061-polska-zaczela-wydawac-ukrainie-mezczyzn-ktorzy-wyjechali-z-kraju

Polish media: Poland began to extradite men to Ukraine who had left the country

It seems there are 80K mobilizable Ukrainians in Poland.  Poland is now taking steps to expel them back to Ukraine

Obvious move for Poland...

[jaichind]

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2023/09/01/guerre-en-ukraine-les-etats-unis-entre-soutien-et-doutes-face-a-la-contre-offensive-de-kiev_6187323_3210.html

"War in Ukraine: the critical support of American strategists in the face of the kyiv counter-offensive
If the Biden administration refuses to speak of an impasse, while Ukrainian progress is limited and winter is approaching, the doubts of officials in the press have been increasing for a month."

Le Monde points out that criticism of Ukraine points to unrealistic forecasts by collective west "experts", their lack of understanding of the balance of power, and their fantasies about the "collapse of the Russian regime."

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2023/09/01/guerre-en-ukraine-les-etats-unis-entre-soutien-et-doutes-face-a-la-contre-offensive-de-kiev_6187323_3210.html

"War in Ukraine: the critical support of American strategists in the face of the kyiv counter-offensive
If the Biden administration refuses to speak of an impasse, while Ukrainian progress is limited and winter is approaching, the doubts of officials in the press have been increasing for a month."

Le Monde points out that criticism of Ukraine points to unrealistic forecasts by collective west "experts", their lack of understanding of the balance of power, and their fantasies about the "collapse of the Russian regime."

The key to happiness is low expectations. It can get easy to be hooked on scenarios that postulate a Russian collapse, but such scenarios can end up as sort of a quasi-opium; if Ukraine, and for that matter key American governmental departments, were led by people who used such scenarios unfolding as a baseline for success, then Putin would have already won, instead of being mired in a stalemate.

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/04/world/europe/ukraine-military-spending-corruption.html

"‘Where Is the Money?’ Military Graft Becomes a Headache for Ukraine"

I am sure Russia is no better and the USA DoD could not pass audits 5 years in a row.  So if there are going to be questions about "Where is the money"  I would start with USA DoD where the amount of money we are talking about is a lot bigger.

[pppolitics]

Scholz foot-dragging again

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1698699254741491833

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1698685989441409457

[2952-0-0]

Of interest to some unnamed posters:

Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1698739332763320400

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1698762627957117428

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Of interest to some unnamed posters:

Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9

Interesting.
I do see some potential for brain-drain to have this sort of effect but whether it actually does...remains to be seen.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1698796521637007491?s=12
https://twitter.com/tatarigami_ua/status/1698766384518340875?s=12

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1698781427683172387

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/SergiyKyslytsya/status/1698761562192740782

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1698811406798225464
https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1698811413576208486
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1698814738988212643
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1698813478776041780

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1698846237829599425?s=12
So inspiring to see people from around the world especially South America volunteering to fight for Ukraine’s freedom. 🙂

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1698685887079493978

[pppolitics]

SirWoodbury hasn't posted since August 23, 2023, the day that Prigozhin's plane was shot down.

Does anyone else wonder if he was on that plane?

[2952-0-0]

It's using its prestige as a regional power to dangle citizenship (and money) as an award for fighting its wars. This reply is funny, it seems to suggest that empires mired in conflicts can't try to use soft power to push its hard power goals...Things can be two things at once anyway.

And tell me what happened to these three empires afterwards?

The reason why they used one group of colonial subjects to prevent the independence of another group of colonial subjects is that the empire wasn't willing to risk its own men to fight the war. And, if the empire isn't willing to risk its own men to hold its empire together, that indicates that the empire itself is on borrowed time, and all that the people seeking independence have to do is to hang on until the empire falls apart. Plus, using colonial subjects to fight wars is risky, since they will eventually go home with their combat skills - and maybe even their weapons.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's using its prestige as a regional power to dangle citizenship (and money) as an award for fighting its wars. This reply is funny, it seems to suggest that empires mired in conflicts can't try to use soft power to push its hard power goals...Things can be two things at once anyway.

And tell me what happened to these three empires afterwards?

The reason why they used one group of colonial subjects to prevent the independence of another group of colonial subjects is that the empire wasn't willing to risk its own men to fight the war. And, if the empire isn't willing to risk its own men to hold its empire together, that indicates that the empire itself is on borrowed time, and all that the people seeking independence have to do is to hang on until the empire falls apart. Plus, using colonial subjects to fight wars is risky, since they will eventually go home with their combat skills - and maybe even their weapons.

I mean, I said what I said, one thing I was not doing was making predictions about Russia's future.
It remains to be seen precisely where Russia is in ten or twenty years...hell, we don't even know if there is even going to be a Ukraine on the map in 2100 (though it would be very surprising if there weren't Ukrainians).

[oldtimer]

SirWoodbury hasn't posted since August 23, 2023, the day that Prigozhin's plane was shot down.

Does anyone else wonder if he was on that plane?

I think he's far more sensible than Jairchild.

He perhaps realised that no matter what, Putin was going to purge him and he left.

[bilaps]

27 challengers remaining.

this is going to need an update too



it was misguided anyway. they never saw any actual combat in bosnia and kosovo

[jaichind]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/05/ukraine-has-lost-its-first-challenger-2-tank/?sh=194d9c7a65f9

"Ukraine Has Lost Its First Challenger 2 Tank"

[jaichind]

It seems that this is no longer true.

[jaichind]

https://kyivindependent.com/new-brigade-bears-heavy-brunt-of-russias-onslaught-in-kharkiv-oblast/

"New brigade bears heavy brunt of Russia’s onslaught in Kharkiv Oblast"

However, the same soldiers who spoke to the Kyiv Independent didn't hide their scorn about how the training prepared them for a war that doesn't exist in Ukraine. They said the NATO officers don't understand the reality on the ground.