Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Lol Putin did another Avdiivka run yesterday into today and it went as bad as the last one 😂
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1715344105931235550
https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1715234045057974416?s=20
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1715300569689059648?s=12

[CityofSinners]

Even with these huge numbers of lost tanks/BMPs Russia won't run out anytime soon. They have the ability to refurbish Soviet-era vehicles and produce some new ones.

I would look more into the loss of artillery/helicopters/aircraft. Those are harder to replace and without them any offensive gets even harder.

[jaichind]

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-will-ukraine-war-end-206987

"How Will the Ukraine War End?"

There is a dawning realization in the political West that the war is not going to end with a military victory for Ukraine and that it is not going to end by attaining the goals necessary to force Russia to concede Ukraine’s key demands at the negotiating table. It is long past the moment when Ukraine is in the best position “on the battlefield [to] be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.”

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/20/ukrainian-parliament-votes-to-ban-orthodox-church-over-alleged-links-with-russia

"Ukrainian parliament votes to ban Orthodox Church over alleged links with Russia"

This aligns with Ukraine's effort to re-define itself (I feel against reality) as part of the West Slav civilizational circle versus the East Slav civilizational circle

[Jingizu]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russias-draft-resolution-on-israel-failed-to-mention-hamas-defeated-at-un/ar-AA1ijQVR

Russia actually took a stronger stance against Israel and that is why it abstained on Brazil's proposal.

Boy, all that hand-wringing from the Israeli government about how they just had to stay neutral on Ukraine vs Russia because of Reasons™️ and they can’t even get a condemnation of Hamas from Russia when they need it most. Great geopolitical strategy, Likudniks!  

Israel has treated Ukraine terribly over the past year and a half. I don't know why Zelensky is still trying to suck up to them.

To get more of their support, maybe? Since Russia is aligning with Palestine.

Cozying up to Israel will make Ukraine toxic to a lot of the more neutral parties. Ukraine is far more popular on the international stage than Israel and I don't understand why he'd try to jeopardize that. Look at how much America's obsequiesness to Israel has hurt us in the middle east.

While this is just anecdotal evidence from the Ukrainians I’ve managed to interact with through various discords and OSINT the general attitude is these “neutral countries” ie Brazil, South Africa, most ME countries are already just pro-Russia and putting on a two-face act so who cares about upsetting them. Also some are holding out hope that doing this also means that Israel will finally send them some Iron Dome missiles

Cross-Posting because the discussion directly relates to the Russia-Ukraine War.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1715742177828000226
😬
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1715687208722592163?s=12
Good reminder with Russia “LEROY JENKINS” moment in Avdiivka that the UA counterattack still continues lol

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/20/ukrainian-parliament-votes-to-ban-orthodox-church-over-alleged-links-with-russia

"Ukrainian parliament votes to ban Orthodox Church over alleged links with Russia"

This aligns with Ukraine's effort to re-define itself (I feel against reality) as part of the West Slav civilizational circle versus the East Slav civilizational circle

Russia vs Ukraine is in time becoming more and more like India vs Pakistan.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1716294164051046618?s=12
Interesting 🤔

[Logical]

Not good actually. One of the main critiques of the counteroffensive was that they used new brigades stuffed with green conscripts instead of reinforcing the battered but battle tested "old" brigades. These new brigades would suffer disproportionate casualties before they get used to and adapt to the realities of the battlefield.

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/finanzminister-lindner-hat-zu-wenig-geld-eingeplant-milliardenstreit-um-ukraine-85825408.bild.html

"Billion dollar dispute over Ukraine aid"

The USA is not the only place where Ukraine aid is stuck.  Germany is now also trying to figure out where to get the $5 billion EUR that it promised for Ukraine aid.  Most likely there needs to be a supplemental budget.  Not clear where the money is going to come from.

[jaichind]

Not good actually. One of the main critiques of the counteroffensive was that they used new brigades stuffed with green conscripts instead of reinforcing the battered but battle tested "old" brigades. These new brigades would suffer disproportionate casualties before they get used to and adapt to the realities of the battlefield.

Ceaser 49BC:  I set forth to fight an army without a leader (Pompeian force in Hispania), so as later to fight a leader without an army (Pompey in Greece.)

Putin 2023AD: I set forth to fight a less well-trained Ukrainian army with advanced NATO weapons, so as later to fight a well-trained NATO army without advanced NATO weapons

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not good actually. One of the main critiques of the counteroffensive was that they used new brigades stuffed with green conscripts instead of reinforcing the battered but battle tested "old" brigades. These new brigades would suffer disproportionate casualties before they get used to and adapt to the realities of the battlefield.

Ceaser 49BC:  I set forth to fight an army without a leader (Pompeian force in Hispania), so as later to fight a leader without an army (Pompey in Greece.)

Putin 2023AD: I set forth to fight a less well-trained Ukrainian army with advanced NATO weapons, so as later to fight a well-trained NATO army without advanced NATO weapons

I could only imagine your reaction if Ukraine did something like this
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1716098114350682131?s=12

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not good actually. One of the main critiques of the counteroffensive was that they used new brigades stuffed with green conscripts instead of reinforcing the battered but battle tested "old" brigades. These new brigades would suffer disproportionate casualties before they get used to and adapt to the realities of the battlefield.

They might not be just putting green conscripts in these new brigades though and honestly I’m not even sure that is what the issues was over still having too many commanders who still are practicing outdated Soviet doctrine tactics

[oldtimer]

Not good actually. One of the main critiques of the counteroffensive was that they used new brigades stuffed with green conscripts instead of reinforcing the battered but battle tested "old" brigades. These new brigades would suffer disproportionate casualties before they get used to and adapt to the realities of the battlefield.

They might not be just putting green conscripts in these new brigades though and honestly I’m not even sure that is what the issues was over still having too many commanders who still are practicing outdated Soviet doctrine tactics

I doubt it.

Lindsey Graham was very impressed about the planning.

But attacking the fortified strongpoints head on, while moving slowly on an open field, is very Russian.

[BG-NY]

I read this thread, and it sounds like Ukraine is annihilating Russia. Then I look at the territory map here, and it tells a completely different story. Not sure which is more correct, but wish they told the same story.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I read this thread, and it sounds like Ukraine is annihilating Russia. Then I look at the territory map here, and it tells a completely different story. Not sure which is more correct, but wish they told the same story.

     Problem is Atlas posters are quite open about their biases and aren't giving a balanced reporting of the situation, which leads to the impression you describe. One would need to read a selection of sources on both sides of the war to come to a realistic understanding of the situation on the ground.

[Pericles]

I read this thread, and it sounds like Ukraine is annihilating Russia. Then I look at the territory map here, and it tells a completely different story. Not sure which is more correct, but wish they told the same story.

Technically both can be true. In WW1 for example Germany held foreign territory even at the very end while no German territory (other than colonies) was occupied by the Allies, but Germany did not have the capacity to continue the war.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I read this thread, and it sounds like Ukraine is annihilating Russia. Then I look at the territory map here, and it tells a completely different story. Not sure which is more correct, but wish they told the same story.

Technically both can be true. In WW1 for example Germany held foreign territory even at the very end while no German territory (other than colonies) was occupied by the Allies, but Germany did not have the capacity to continue the war.

Both can be wrong. It's kind of a stalemate.

As for WW1, there were revolutions in Germany and Austria-Hungary.

[Pericles]

I read this thread, and it sounds like Ukraine is annihilating Russia. Then I look at the territory map here, and it tells a completely different story. Not sure which is more correct, but wish they told the same story.

Technically both can be true. In WW1 for example Germany held foreign territory even at the very end while no German territory (other than colonies) was occupied by the Allies, but Germany did not have the capacity to continue the war.

Both can be wrong. It's kind of a stalemate.

As for WW1, there were revolutions in Germany and Austria-Hungary.

I said it's possible for Russia to lose while holding Ukrainian territory, we'll have to see if that is what happens.

Obviously there were revolutions and they contributed to the defeat, but it's believing the 'stab in the back' myth to think it was the main cause. More importantly, military resistance broke down-mainly because Germany did not have enough soldiers to resist the Allies, and also because morale collapsed on the frontlines (hundreds of thousands of soldiers deserted or surrendered in the final months of the war).

[Hindsight was 2020]

I read this thread, and it sounds like Ukraine is annihilating Russia. Then I look at the territory map here, and it tells a completely different story. Not sure which is more correct, but wish they told the same story.

     Problem is Atlas posters are quite open about their biases and aren't giving a balanced reporting of the situation, which leads to the impression you describe. One would need to read a selection of sources on both sides of the war to come to a realistic understanding of the situation on the ground.

Ukrainian sources can be bias but there is no good Russian source to give a realistic view of the ground especially with Putin cracking down on them in the recent months to not report any setbacks. Also it’s like Pericles said just because Russia launched a disastrous attack on Avdiivka or the Ukrainian counterattack in the south is still ongoing doesn’t mean that the Russian lines are completely collapsing

[bilaps]

Lol, should I quote your posts from previous page? Seems like the rumors of Russian demise at Avdeevka were greatly exaggarated.

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1716792584557740395

I see some Russian and Soviet flags flying high.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-says-israel-hamas-war-shows-west-must-ramp-up-arms-production/

"Ukraine says Israel-Hamas war shows West must ramp up arms production"

Ukraine must be feeling the pinch of some ammo it needs going to Israel.  The issue here is it takes years to construct the capacity to produce war material at scale.  During its USSR days, Ukraine was the center of the USSR military-industrial complex but since 1991 most of it has been left to degrade.

I think in the short and medium run Ukraine will have to deal with the USA triaging between Israel's and Ukraine's needs for ammo where there are overlapping needs.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Lol, should I quote your posts from previous page? Seems like the rumors of Russian demise at Avdeevka were greatly exaggarated.

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1716792584557740395

I see some Russian and Soviet flags flying high.

The vid got geolocated 2 hrs ago they just stuck a flag on the northern part of the trash heap they got near last while the rest is grey zone/UA held 🙄
https://twitter.com/klinger66/status/1716759951635357841?s=12
https://twitter.com/majakovsk73/status/1716757491260805366?s=12

[bilaps]

This guy is really going to die on a Waste Heap hill

https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3/status/1716758243379184065

[Hindsight was 2020]

This guy is really going to die on a Waste Heap hill

https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3/status/1716758243379184065

The map you just linked shows the waste hill isn’t captured, plus you’re the one saying it’s a big deal for them because you didn’t want to admit this counterattack has sucked for the Russians 🙄