Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

"Scraping the barrel"

Roger Wicker:

https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1734604995771928791?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1734625764174176434?s=12
Oh hey Ukraine causality reports in line with Western assessments, again

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1734625764174176434?s=12
Oh hey Ukraine causality reports in line with Western assessments, again

Probably because the Western assessments have been derived from Ukrainian casuality reports.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1734625764174176434?s=12
Oh hey Ukraine causality reports in line with Western assessments, again

Honestly this sounds about right to me; remember casualties include injured, not only dead.

For perspective:
"In others words Russia has suffered more casualties in less than 2 years than the US has lost since 1945, and 3000-4000 tanks, double that in APC/IFV, which is far far larger than US losses. This is a military that can be defeated if we arm Ukraine properly."

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1734635493524918319?s=20

[Storr]

I felt it was appropriate to share this take here:

"I find it quite astonishing how our narrative changed from "Russia is on its last legs, and we just have to decide which part is decolonizing first," to "omg, Russia is a highly sophisticated military power with unlimited resources that is on the verge of taking over Europe."

Why is it that such far-fetched narratives become mainstream, while more nuanced takes as in "yeah, Russia is facing serious problems but, yeah, it's pretty resilient" never capture the public imagination.

I think the answer to this is that the public (and, let's admit it, some analysts and Russia watchers too) prefer simplistic, clear-cut narratives about Russia. It's either all or nothing. Anything in between is too difficult to grasp, and, probably, does not lead to desired policy outcomes.

Anyway, I take the view that we should not bury Ukraine prematurely just as we should not have dismissed Russia out of hand when things were going badly for the Kremlin.

This war is a complicated affair, and hubris and despair are both uncalled for.

What is important, as a starting point, is to recognize that this war has not gone particularly well for either side, and both sides face significant challenges going forward. Neither side is likely to make sweeping gains, nor to swiftly collapse.

Finally: continued military support for Ukraine is essential for it to be able to bring this war to a negotiated solution - in fact, without such support, there will not be a negotiated solution, because Russia will not want to negotiate."

https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1734592206181134714?s=20

[GeneralMacArthur]

Russia is a major world power with an enormous amount of land, a nuclear arsenal protecting it from any threat of invasion, and vast swaths of natural resources, including the most strategically valuable natural resource in the world.  It's also a completely top-down authoritarian state with a sophisticated, well-armed state oppression operation against a largely impoverished and weak populace.  The country isn't going to collapse overnight, unfortunately.

However, they are stuck in a meat grinder stalemate in Ukraine that is draining their military capabilities and killing hundreds of young men every day.  They've tried to compensate by emptying out their prisons, but that will only last so long.  As long as America keeps the meat grinder running, killing one young able-bodied Russian man after another, Russian socioeconomic conditions will continue to decline, and their ability to not only project aggressive military force but even to defend against internal conflicts will degrade.  For instance, if there was another Chechnya, or an uprising in Georgia or Dagestan, Russia would have a serious military challenge on its hands.  Much less an actual attack on Russia by one of its neighbors.

You'd have to think that even without an attack, though, just the continued killing of its young men and the continued economic stagnation through lack of trade with Europe would be enough to eventually piss off the Russian people enough to spark protests, riots, and anti-state violence.  It's a lot to ask against Putin's oppression machine though.

At any rate, even if Russia isn't attacked, its military powers are so degraded at the current time that it couldn't possibly hope to even dream of winning a direct engagement with NATO, even if you do buy the hype about European military capabilities running dry.  For one thing, the United States has far greater industrial capacity than Russia, so we could re-arm in a matter of months if it proved necessary.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1734625764174176434?s=12
Oh hey Ukraine causality reports in line with Western assessments, again

That's massive, if true. It would be almost six times the number of US soldiers lost in Vietnam over a much longer period. Let that sink in for a moment. Usually the Russian people should storm the Kremlin and throw Putin in jail for killing his own people en masse.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1734625764174176434?s=12
Oh hey Ukraine causality reports in line with Western assessments, again

Probably because the Western assessments have been derived from Ukrainian casuality reports.

Give our intel a little bit more credit than that

[Blue3]

US intelligence says Russia has lost 87% of the active-duty ground troops it had before the Ukraine War
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-lost-87-troops-had-174350068.html

I've got to take that with a lot of salt... Russia doesn't seem to have collapsed quite that bad, even with that weird revolt or back in its disastrous early stages.

[bilaps]

And we thought Russia was the 2nd best army in the world. It seems they are the best. Imagine any other army losing that much men and still gaining territory.

[jaichind]

"As long as it takes" --> "As long as we can"

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/12/biden-not-making-promises-us-will-further-assist-ukraine-00131433

"Biden ‘not making promises’ US will further assist Ukraine"

Zelenskyy, however, did raise the need for the U.S. to supply longer range version of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, during his meeting with Johnson, according to a person familiar with the conversation. The U.S. has supplied ATACMS with a shorter range, and top national security Republicans have in recent weeks urged Biden to send a longer-range variant so Ukrainian forces can strike Russian targets at a greater distance.

[bilaps]

Very bleak picture for Ukraine this morning

https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3/status/1734889150510248034

[jaichind]

This guy is Poland's new foreign minister. 

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-q3-gdp-growth-confirmed-55-rosstat-2023-12-13/

"Russia's Q3 GDP growth confirmed at 5.5% - Rosstat"

[jaichind]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/12/13/remarks-by-president-biden-and-president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine-in-joint-press-conference-2/

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  We want to see Ukraine win the war.  And, as I’ve said before, winning means Ukraine is a sovereign, independent nation and — that can afford to defend itself today and deter further aggression.  That’s our objective.

Note winning according to Biden no longer includes Ukraine joining NATO or any mention of Ukraine's territorial integrity. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/joshposaner/status/1734971115049566257
https://fxtwitter.com/TreasChest/status/1735096131393085774
Nice to see Germany and Poland being awesome

[Blue3]

At this point, I think we need to prioritize a peace treaty... and a condition being that Ukraine can join NATO... and then acting to expedite that process so it never happens again.

[Hindsight was 2020]

At this point, I think we need to prioritize a peace treaty... and a condition being that Ukraine can join NATO... and then acting to expedite that process so it never happens again.

I seriously don’t get why people keep saying this like Russia will just accept what they have or that they haven’t just recently put out demands for peace which again includes demands for two major cities Ukraine holds and Ukrainian disarmament

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-q3-gdp-growth-confirmed-55-rosstat-2023-12-13/

"Russia's Q3 GDP growth confirmed at 5.5% - Rosstat"

Comes to show how sanctions-resilient Russia has become.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1734625764174176434?s=12
Oh hey Ukraine causality reports in line with Western assessments, again

That's massive, if true. It would be almost six times the number of US soldiers lost in Vietnam over a much longer period. Let that sink in for a moment. Usually the Russian people should storm the Kremlin and throw Putin in jail for killing his own people en masse.

In Vietnam, the US had 150k soldiers who didn't die but required hospitalization. Many of those, like John McCain, were obviously released from duty as soon as possible.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At this point, I think we need to prioritize a peace treaty... and a condition being that Ukraine can join NATO... and then acting to expedite that process so it never happens again.

I seriously don’t get why people keep saying this like Russia will just accept what they have or that they haven’t just recently put out demands for peace which again includes demands for two major cities Ukraine holds and Ukrainian disarmament

Right now the most important thing is giving Ukraine what it needs the most (like what we rightfully did for Stalin in WW2) and then getting a ceasefire that denies the Russians their hopes for a gain.
Ofc that doesn't mean Ukraine is free to do whatever it pleases. If Ukraine actually regains what it wants to regain it must behave. However, most likely Ukraine is headed for a marginal win at best. What Ukraine needs most long-term is reconstruction potential for the long haul. Russian demands of maximalist variety are just like Ukrainian maximalist demands... Highly unworkable as it is right now, not really serious. Most wars don't have such an imbalance that such demands could be imposed, anyhow...

[CumbrianLefty]

But that assumes Russia is ultimately a rational actor and their current public "demands" are just for show - all the indications are that Putin is completely *ir*rational when it comes to Ukraine, though.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1734625764174176434?s=12
Oh hey Ukraine causality reports in line with Western assessments, again

Oh hey Putin accidentally let it slip that Russia causalities are in this ballpark
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1735256083046846488