Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/viyskoviy-oblik-zhinok-1-zhovtnya-zsu-poyasnili-1694077570.html

"Military registration for women from October 1: the Armed Forces explained why it is necessary"

Women who have a medical education must register for military registration in territorial recruiting centers from October 1. This is necessary to check the mobilization resource.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1699812685565563217
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1699825185845555568
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1699848564262764869

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1699766831920066603?s=20
No wonder we see absurd loss ratios for a side that's supposed to be on the defensive - it's extremely ironic that Russia created these vast defensive belts and then fundamentally refuse to use them to deny Ukrainians political victories should they capture a single village. Like what is the point of creating a defense in depth if you refuse to use it, instead engaging in costly counterattacks to maintain a line in much less favourable terrain.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1699766831920066603?s=20
No wonder we see absurd loss ratios for a side that's supposed to be on the defensive - it's extremely ironic that Russia created these vast defensive belts and then fundamentally refuse to use them to deny Ukrainians political victories should they capture a single village. Like what is the point of creating a defense in depth if you refuse to use it, instead engaging in costly counterattacks to maintain a line in much less favourable terrain.

Surovokin and Wagner were the most in favour of these kinds of defences. Gerasimov has a different philosophy (and is generally less competent - but competence only gets you so far in the halls of power).

[pppolitics]

Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

[jaichind]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/ukraine/2023/09/07/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/70783569007/

"Ukraine 'in deep trouble': Some experts say $1B more from US won't matter. Live updates"

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1699779179519349036

The actual reporting is even worse:

Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson, whose new book is set to be released by Simon & Schuster on September 12.

Musk was soon on the phone with President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, the chairman of the joint chiefs, Gen. Mark Milley, and the Russian ambassador to the US to address anxieties from Washington, DC, to Moscow, writes Isaacson.

Meanwhile, Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister of Ukraine, was pleading with Musk to restore connectivity for the submarine drones by telling Musk about their capabilities in a text message, according to Isaacson. “I just want you—the person who is changing the world through technology—to know this,” Fedorov told Musk.

If this is true, it seems pretty incontrovertible that Musk has become a security threat to the United States, and something will need to be done about it.

Nothing will be done, for three reasons.

1. Musk hasn't been caught selling out the US military yet. If he was, it would be a different ball game.
2. The Biden administration is reluctant to aid (or perhaps to be seen to aid) Ukraine's long-range strike program. Taking action here would run counter to its usual tendencies.
3. Musk is an oligarch, and oligarchs (by and large) are never held accountable.

Musk had plenty of legitimate reasons to talk to Russian officials due to intersections in their space programs. It is hard to fully disentangle these from their state's other interests, and the administration does not particularly want to pick a fight over this to begin with.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1699626064450891944

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lloyds-talks-with-un-over-new-black-sea-grain-insurance-cover-ceo-2023-09-07/

"Exclusive: Lloyd's in talks with UN over new Black Sea grain insurance cover"

"Absent UN intervention and UN clearance, we would not sanction the insurance," Neal said.

Lloyd's of London needs UN intervention before they can give insurance for Ukraine shipping in the Black Sea given the collapse of the grain deal.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/ukraine/2023/09/07/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/70783569007/

"Ukraine 'in deep trouble': Some experts say $1B more from US won't matter. Live updates"

You can get "some experts" to say literally anything - especially if they are paid to.

Meanwhile in the real world, Ukraine are now making advances on a daily basis.

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/guterres-und-lawrow-schmieden-finsteren-plan-un-komplott-soll-aggressor-russland-85328612.bild.html

"UN wants to give in to Putin's blackmail"

Bild reports that the UN is in secret talks with Russia to conclude a deal that would lift some sanctions against Russia in exchange for the resumption of the grain deal. It seems the easing of sanctions may include the connection of Russian banks to the SWIFT system. 

My understanding was that the original gain deal included Russian agriculture banks being allowed back onto SWIFT to facilitate Russian grain exports.  The Collective West never really honored that part of the deal which was one of many reasons Putin pulled out of it.  I guess there are talks to put that back on the table again.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1700075812995608746
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1700139798520844308

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1699779179519349036

The actual reporting is even worse:

Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson, whose new book is set to be released by Simon & Schuster on September 12.

Musk was soon on the phone with President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, the chairman of the joint chiefs, Gen. Mark Milley, and the Russian ambassador to the US to address anxieties from Washington, DC, to Moscow, writes Isaacson.

Meanwhile, Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister of Ukraine, was pleading with Musk to restore connectivity for the submarine drones by telling Musk about their capabilities in a text message, according to Isaacson. “I just want you—the person who is changing the world through technology—to know this,” Fedorov told Musk.

If this is true, it seems pretty incontrovertible that Musk has become a security threat to the United States, and something will need to be done about it.

LOL, it's his product, he can do whatever he wants with it. Security threat, someone would think Kim Jong Un or God forbid Putin is talking

[bilaps]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/ukraine/2023/09/07/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/70783569007/

"Ukraine 'in deep trouble': Some experts say $1B more from US won't matter. Live updates"

You can get "some experts" to say literally anything - especially if they are paid to.

Meanwhile in the real world, Ukraine are now making advances on a daily basis.

In the real world, Ukrainian gains are pretty minor. For example they still don't have FULL control over Robotine.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1699779179519349036

The actual reporting is even worse:

Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson, whose new book is set to be released by Simon & Schuster on September 12.

Musk was soon on the phone with President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, the chairman of the joint chiefs, Gen. Mark Milley, and the Russian ambassador to the US to address anxieties from Washington, DC, to Moscow, writes Isaacson.

Meanwhile, Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister of Ukraine, was pleading with Musk to restore connectivity for the submarine drones by telling Musk about their capabilities in a text message, according to Isaacson. “I just want you—the person who is changing the world through technology—to know this,” Fedorov told Musk.

If this is true, it seems pretty incontrovertible that Musk has become a security threat to the United States, and something will need to be done about it.

LOL, it's his product, he can do whatever he wants with it. Security threat, someone would think Kim Jong Un or God forbid Putin is talking

“The Pentagon disclosed on Thursday that it has signed a contract to provide SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service in Ukraine, nearly eight months after Elon Musk, the company's owner, threatened to terminate access unless the U.S. government paid for it.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/starlink-ukraine-pentagon-elon-musk/

I doubt that it is in the contract that Elon Musk can shut down the service whenever he wants.

[Torrain]

Nationalise Starlink.

[pppolitics]

WTF?

If this is real, Guterres needs to be removed from office.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1700135683673686365

[jaichind]

https://news.italy24.press/world/849980.html

"Kiev takes it out on the Pope again. According to Zelensky’s chief advisor, Francis is “pro-Russian”. “He is not credible to mediate”"

Zelensky’s chief advisor says Pope is pro-Russian.  Even if this is true just saying that is not wise given the Pope's stature with Catholics worldwide. Another great chapter of "making friends and influencing people"

[GeneralMacArthur]

1. Creating a special subdivision of the state-owned "Russian Agrarian Bank" and connecting it to SWIFT, this circumventing sanctions.

Oh man remember 18 months ago when the entire internet and media revealed themselves to be lifelong Ph.D experts in SWIFT because there was an opportunity to criticize Biden for not doing something with it (and after he did it, for not doing it fast enough of course)

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1699779179519349036

The actual reporting is even worse:

Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson, whose new book is set to be released by Simon & Schuster on September 12.

Musk was soon on the phone with President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, the chairman of the joint chiefs, Gen. Mark Milley, and the Russian ambassador to the US to address anxieties from Washington, DC, to Moscow, writes Isaacson.

Meanwhile, Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister of Ukraine, was pleading with Musk to restore connectivity for the submarine drones by telling Musk about their capabilities in a text message, according to Isaacson. “I just want you—the person who is changing the world through technology—to know this,” Fedorov told Musk.

If this is true, it seems pretty incontrovertible that Musk has become a security threat to the United States, and something will need to be done about it.

LOL, it's his product, he can do whatever he wants with it. Security threat, someone would think Kim Jong Un or God forbid Putin is talking

“The Pentagon disclosed on Thursday that it has signed a contract to provide SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service in Ukraine, nearly eight months after Elon Musk, the company's owner, threatened to terminate access unless the U.S. government paid for it.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/starlink-ukraine-pentagon-elon-musk/

I doubt that it is in the contract that Elon Musk can shut down the service whenever he wants.

I think the only thing interesting that this episode has disclosed, is the validity of suspicions that Starlink was just a Pentagon black project, using Musk as a front.
In order to control drones from thousands of miles away.

It never made any commercial sence, but as a military telecoms project it made perfect sense.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://news.italy24.press/world/849980.html

"Kiev takes it out on the Pope again. According to Zelensky’s chief advisor, Francis is “pro-Russian”. “He is not credible to mediate”"

Zelensky’s chief advisor says Pope is pro-Russian.  Even if this is true just saying that is not wise given the Pope's stature with Catholics worldwide. Another great chapter of "making friends and influencing people"

Please forgive me for not trusting a source that calls the Pope "Dad Francis".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://news.italy24.press/world/849980.html

"Kiev takes it out on the Pope again. According to Zelensky’s chief advisor, Francis is “pro-Russian”. “He is not credible to mediate”"

Zelensky’s chief advisor says Pope is pro-Russian.  Even if this is true just saying that is not wise given the Pope's stature with Catholics worldwide. Another great chapter of "making friends and influencing people"

You may as well give up on mediation completely if this is how big the net is...

[jaichind]

https://news.italy24.press/world/849980.html

"Kiev takes it out on the Pope again. According to Zelensky’s chief advisor, Francis is “pro-Russian”. “He is not credible to mediate”"

Zelensky’s chief advisor says Pope is pro-Russian.  Even if this is true just saying that is not wise given the Pope's stature with Catholics worldwide. Another great chapter of "making friends and influencing people"

Please forgive me for not trusting a source that calls the Pope "Dad Francis".

This seems to be another Italian source of the same news
https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/ucraina-il-consigliere-di-zelensky-contro-il-papa-non-ha-senso-parlare-di-una-sua-mediazione-e-filorusso/

Reuters reports a variation on the story
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-catholic-bishops-rebuke-pope-over-his-russia-comments-2023-09-06/

"Ukrainian Catholic bishops rebuke pope over his Russia comments"

[pppolitics]

I'll wait and see on this one.

Too many times were we told that the US is on the verge of sending ATACMS

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1700273302168834195
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1700271181541130440

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1700219219860701427