Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/saudi-arabia-and-russia-win-big-in-gamble-on-oil-cuts-9a1834c6

"Saudi Arabia and Russia Win Big in Gamble on Oil Cuts"

Oil revenue in Saudi Arabia this quarter is likely up by nearly $30 million a day, or about 5.7%, compared with the April-to-June period, analysis by Energy Aspects shows. For the whole three-month period, that would equate to about $2.6 billion. Russian oil revenue is likely up by about $2.8 billion, the data show.

A team effort between Russia and Saudi Arabia grabs more revenue even with less oil being exported.  I expect a sharp economic slow down in USA and EU next year so this game will reverse on Russia and Saudi Arabia soon.

[Hindsight was 2020]

What are your thoughts on US policy towards Iran, bilaps? Since a country having a revolution justifies a major power that falls out of favor because of that revolution brutally invading it almost a decade later, and all.

What are american interests in Iran? Is it nearby? Does Iran have some sort of American minority? How many Iraninans consider American their native language? How many have cultural and family ties to America?

And while we at it, does anyone from pro Ukraine posters here even acknowledge the fact that the city of Donetsk has been shelled constantly by Ukrainian army since 2014 killing civilians left and right?

Killing civilians left and right? In the two years proceeding the invasion the number of total civilian casualties on both sides was 26 and then 25 and the overwhelming cause of both killed and injured were mines and erw’s. That’s not getting into the fact that Russia itself undermined this talking point by playing constant propaganda showing how safe and unharmed Donetsk is
https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Conflict-related%20civilian%20casualties%20as%20of%2031%20December%202021%20%28rev%2027%20January%202022%29%20corr%20EN_0.pdf

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1708118939471949929
https://twitter.com/tggrove/status/1708094979858469139
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1708043293844459833
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708043216426045498

[oldtimer]

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/saudi-arabia-and-russia-win-big-in-gamble-on-oil-cuts-9a1834c6

"Saudi Arabia and Russia Win Big in Gamble on Oil Cuts"

Oil revenue in Saudi Arabia this quarter is likely up by nearly $30 million a day, or about 5.7%, compared with the April-to-June period, analysis by Energy Aspects shows. For the whole three-month period, that would equate to about $2.6 billion. Russian oil revenue is likely up by about $2.8 billion, the data show.

A team effort between Russia and Saudi Arabia grabs more revenue even with less oil being exported.  I expect a sharp economic slow down in USA and EU next year so this game will reverse on Russia and Saudi Arabia soon.

This is the only 2nd thing of any interest that you have ever posted on this thread.

The G7 price cap for russian Oil is practically gone in international markets.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1708142330023190999

[KaiserDave]

I wasn't talking about separatism. Separatism came as a direct consequence of Maidan.  And yes, it has to do with Russian influence (btw any world power would not let it slide in their own backyard) but to ignore all other stuff that was going on is disingenuous

What other stuff going on? I have very clearly acknowledged the genuine Antimaidan movement (it's actually very important to me), I have only said that it was characterized by regionalism and federalism rather than separatism and Russian nationalism. Of course it was Russophilic, as opposed to being anti-Russia, but to say, as you said, that they felt closer to Russia than Ukraine, is fiction. They felt closer to Russia than Maidan, but in their own way, they were still patriots. Since the war started in 2022, we have not seen any pro-Russia sentiment in unoccupied eastern and southern Ukraine, for obvious reasons. But also because even Antimaidan Ukrainians were not disassociated from their own country.

Party of Regions was not a rabidly pro-Russia organization. Yanukovych won 2010 on a moderate platform focused on restoring economic stability and a middle path regarding relations with Russia and the west, promising to put Ukraine on a path to EU membership! Of course the party was deeply tied to Russian interests, but being the "party of Russia" isn't exactly a winning strategy.

I literally said closer to Russia than Maidan not Ukraine. You said it yourself russophillic, what are we talking about again?

I might have gotten confused, to me you seemed to be saying Antimaidan demonstrators felt closer to Russia then Ukraine, I tried to strongly disabuse you of that notion, but I conceded they may feel closer to Russia then they do to the new government (while still retaining their patriotism).

Let me restate the two claims I have made today and yesterday, you tell me if you disagree.

1. Yanukovych was removed in a constitutionally legitimate manner, and morally speaking, abrogated his own democratic mandate by illegally passing and enforcing the Anti-Protest Laws. He fled the country despite no threat to his personal safety in Kharkiv, and his actions, especially consistent with months of time dedicated to smuggling embezzled wealth out of the country, were consistent with a longstanding fear of legal consequences.
2. The Antimaidan movement was majority populist, regionalist, and federalist in character, not separatist. It was Russophilic, but not Russian nationalist in character. Separatism in Donetsk and Luhansk was almost entirely astroturfed by Russian special operations and later, direct intervention, and was in no significant way popular or organic.
3. I have also clarified misconceptions about language.

[bilaps]

I wasn't talking about separatism. Separatism came as a direct consequence of Maidan.  And yes, it has to do with Russian influence (btw any world power would not let it slide in their own backyard) but to ignore all other stuff that was going on is disingenuous

What other stuff going on? I have very clearly acknowledged the genuine Antimaidan movement (it's actually very important to me), I have only said that it was characterized by regionalism and federalism rather than separatism and Russian nationalism. Of course it was Russophilic, as opposed to being anti-Russia, but to say, as you said, that they felt closer to Russia than Ukraine, is fiction. They felt closer to Russia than Maidan, but in their own way, they were still patriots. Since the war started in 2022, we have not seen any pro-Russia sentiment in unoccupied eastern and southern Ukraine, for obvious reasons. But also because even Antimaidan Ukrainians were not disassociated from their own country.

Party of Regions was not a rabidly pro-Russia organization. Yanukovych won 2010 on a moderate platform focused on restoring economic stability and a middle path regarding relations with Russia and the west, promising to put Ukraine on a path to EU membership! Of course the party was deeply tied to Russian interests, but being the "party of Russia" isn't exactly a winning strategy.

I literally said closer to Russia than Maidan not Ukraine. You said it yourself russophillic, what are we talking about again?

I might have gotten confused, to me you seemed to be saying Antimaidan demonstrators felt closer to Russia then Ukraine, I tried to strongly disabuse you of that notion, but I conceded they may feel closer to Russia then they do to the new government (while still retaining their patriotism).

Let me restate the two claims I have made today and yesterday, you tell me if you disagree.

1. Yanukovych was removed in a constitutionally legitimate manner, and morally speaking, abrogated his own democratic mandate by illegally passing and enforcing the Anti-Protest Laws. He fled the country despite no threat to his personal safety in Kharkiv, and his actions, especially consistent with months of time dedicated to smuggling embezzled wealth out of the country, were consistent with a longstanding fear of legal consequences.
2. The Antimaidan movement was majority populist, regionalist, and federalist in character, not separatist. It was Russophilic, but not Russian nationalist in character. Separatism in Donetsk and Luhansk was almost entirely astroturfed by Russian special operations and later, direct intervention, and was in no significant way popular or organic.
3. I have also clarified misconceptions about language.

I strongly disagree with 1
Partialy agree with 2
Partialy agree with 3

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1708230603106054555
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1708226104606048529
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1708224978254987647
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1708224447981703289
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1708223132744433723

[KaiserDave]

I wasn't talking about separatism. Separatism came as a direct consequence of Maidan.  And yes, it has to do with Russian influence (btw any world power would not let it slide in their own backyard) but to ignore all other stuff that was going on is disingenuous

What other stuff going on? I have very clearly acknowledged the genuine Antimaidan movement (it's actually very important to me), I have only said that it was characterized by regionalism and federalism rather than separatism and Russian nationalism. Of course it was Russophilic, as opposed to being anti-Russia, but to say, as you said, that they felt closer to Russia than Ukraine, is fiction. They felt closer to Russia than Maidan, but in their own way, they were still patriots. Since the war started in 2022, we have not seen any pro-Russia sentiment in unoccupied eastern and southern Ukraine, for obvious reasons. But also because even Antimaidan Ukrainians were not disassociated from their own country.

Party of Regions was not a rabidly pro-Russia organization. Yanukovych won 2010 on a moderate platform focused on restoring economic stability and a middle path regarding relations with Russia and the west, promising to put Ukraine on a path to EU membership! Of course the party was deeply tied to Russian interests, but being the "party of Russia" isn't exactly a winning strategy.

I literally said closer to Russia than Maidan not Ukraine. You said it yourself russophillic, what are we talking about again?

I might have gotten confused, to me you seemed to be saying Antimaidan demonstrators felt closer to Russia then Ukraine, I tried to strongly disabuse you of that notion, but I conceded they may feel closer to Russia then they do to the new government (while still retaining their patriotism).

Let me restate the two claims I have made today and yesterday, you tell me if you disagree.

1. Yanukovych was removed in a constitutionally legitimate manner, and morally speaking, abrogated his own democratic mandate by illegally passing and enforcing the Anti-Protest Laws. He fled the country despite no threat to his personal safety in Kharkiv, and his actions, especially consistent with months of time dedicated to smuggling embezzled wealth out of the country, were consistent with a longstanding fear of legal consequences.
2. The Antimaidan movement was majority populist, regionalist, and federalist in character, not separatist. It was Russophilic, but not Russian nationalist in character. Separatism in Donetsk and Luhansk was almost entirely astroturfed by Russian special operations and later, direct intervention, and was in no significant way popular or organic.
3. I have also clarified misconceptions about language.

I strongly disagree with 1
Partialy agree with 2
Partialy agree with 3

Very well. Then I just have two questions for you. What did Yanukovych spend late 2013 and early 2014 physically transporting railcars of his wealth out of the country? And why did he leave Kharkiv for Rostov?

[Badger]

Just so I don't get BigSerg'ed in the future, I want to unequivocally state that I think both parties are guilty of horrible crimes in this terrible joke of a war.

NATO was wrong to effect a coup in the Ukraine, and NATO is also to blame for the militarization of a country that was intended to act as a buffer state between NATO and Russia's respective spheres of influence.

Russia was wrong to invade on such a massive scale - had Russia occupied the Donbass, I'd be more inclined to argue in favor of their perspective. But Russia did not just occupy the Donbass - they went all the way into Kiev with the intent of installing a pliable regime and building a land bridge to the Crimea. So the Russians are even worse.

I do not support any active intervention or direct aid for either country. Sanctioning Russia has effectively driven China and Russia into each other's arms.

There. That is the official Sanchez position on the Ukraine. Nobody asked, but now Badger can't invent what I believe about the war and gaslight the forum about it.

What a stupid host from beginning to end. One Non-Stop conveyor belt of bull plop both sides ism. Truly a fail post by any objective measure.

Don't worry about me "inventing" your position on the war. You have every reason to be ashamed of this one.

[Badger]

The rebranding of Euromaidan as a “coup” has been one of the most successful Russian propaganda lines and one of the most frustrating considering it’s weak facts. When I think of the term “coup” an event where masses of people protesting the government over an economic policy, the government doing a failed violent crackdown that turns more people against them, the president resigning, his second in command taking over, elections being held, and then a new government taking over isn’t what comes to mind. It’s more worse is the smoking gun of this supposed “coup” is tedious stuff like Nuland or McCain saying in memos or phone calls that Euromaidan could lead to a pro-west government so we should support it. Yeah no sh*t they’d say/think that, any nation in that situation would have government officials saying this. I mean by that logic the American Revolution is a French backed coup

Yes, it was.

No? By every conceivable stretch of the imagination and historical record, no?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Just so I don't get BigSerg'ed in the future, I want to unequivocally state that I think both parties are guilty of horrible crimes in this terrible joke of a war.

NATO was wrong to effect a coup in the Ukraine, and NATO is also to blame for the militarization of a country that was intended to act as a buffer state between NATO and Russia's respective spheres of influence.

Russia was wrong to invade on such a massive scale - had Russia occupied the Donbass, I'd be more inclined to argue in favor of their perspective. But Russia did not just occupy the Donbass - they went all the way into Kiev with the intent of installing a pliable regime and building a land bridge to the Crimea. So the Russians are even worse.

I do not support any active intervention or direct aid for either country. Sanctioning Russia has effectively driven China and Russia into each other's arms.

There. That is the official Sanchez position on the Ukraine. Nobody asked, but now Badger can't invent what I believe about the war and gaslight the forum about it.

What a stupid host from beginning to end. One Non-Stop conveyor belt of bull plop both sides ism. Truly a fail post by any objective measure.

Don't worry about me "inventing" your position on the war. You have every reason to be ashamed of this one.

Only one spelling error in this one. I'm impressed.

[Badger]

Just so I don't get BigSerg'ed in the future, I want to unequivocally state that I think both parties are guilty of horrible crimes in this terrible joke of a war.

NATO was wrong to effect a coup in the Ukraine, and NATO is also to blame for the militarization of a country that was intended to act as a buffer state between NATO and Russia's respective spheres of influence.

Russia was wrong to invade on such a massive scale - had Russia occupied the Donbass, I'd be more inclined to argue in favor of their perspective. But Russia did not just occupy the Donbass - they went all the way into Kiev with the intent of installing a pliable regime and building a land bridge to the Crimea. So the Russians are even worse.

I do not support any active intervention or direct aid for either country. Sanctioning Russia has effectively driven China and Russia into each other's arms.

There. That is the official Sanchez position on the Ukraine. Nobody asked, but now Badger can't invent what I believe about the war and gaslight the forum about it.

What a stupid host from beginning to end. One Non-Stop conveyor belt of bull plop both sides ism. Truly a fail post by any objective measure.

Don't worry about me "inventing" your position on the war. You have every reason to be ashamed of this one.

Only one spelling error in this one. I'm impressed.

Mocking typos. The last Refuge of a "reformed" White supremacist.

Oh, did I spell that all correctly?

[bilaps]

I wasn't talking about separatism. Separatism came as a direct consequence of Maidan.  And yes, it has to do with Russian influence (btw any world power would not let it slide in their own backyard) but to ignore all other stuff that was going on is disingenuous

What other stuff going on? I have very clearly acknowledged the genuine Antimaidan movement (it's actually very important to me), I have only said that it was characterized by regionalism and federalism rather than separatism and Russian nationalism. Of course it was Russophilic, as opposed to being anti-Russia, but to say, as you said, that they felt closer to Russia than Ukraine, is fiction. They felt closer to Russia than Maidan, but in their own way, they were still patriots. Since the war started in 2022, we have not seen any pro-Russia sentiment in unoccupied eastern and southern Ukraine, for obvious reasons. But also because even Antimaidan Ukrainians were not disassociated from their own country.

Party of Regions was not a rabidly pro-Russia organization. Yanukovych won 2010 on a moderate platform focused on restoring economic stability and a middle path regarding relations with Russia and the west, promising to put Ukraine on a path to EU membership! Of course the party was deeply tied to Russian interests, but being the "party of Russia" isn't exactly a winning strategy.

I literally said closer to Russia than Maidan not Ukraine. You said it yourself russophillic, what are we talking about again?

I might have gotten confused, to me you seemed to be saying Antimaidan demonstrators felt closer to Russia then Ukraine, I tried to strongly disabuse you of that notion, but I conceded they may feel closer to Russia then they do to the new government (while still retaining their patriotism).

Let me restate the two claims I have made today and yesterday, you tell me if you disagree.

1. Yanukovych was removed in a constitutionally legitimate manner, and morally speaking, abrogated his own democratic mandate by illegally passing and enforcing the Anti-Protest Laws. He fled the country despite no threat to his personal safety in Kharkiv, and his actions, especially consistent with months of time dedicated to smuggling embezzled wealth out of the country, were consistent with a longstanding fear of legal consequences.
2. The Antimaidan movement was majority populist, regionalist, and federalist in character, not separatist. It was Russophilic, but not Russian nationalist in character. Separatism in Donetsk and Luhansk was almost entirely astroturfed by Russian special operations and later, direct intervention, and was in no significant way popular or organic.
3. I have also clarified misconceptions about language.

I strongly disagree with 1
Partialy agree with 2
Partialy agree with 3

Very well. Then I just have two questions for you. What did Yanukovych spend late 2013 and early 2014 physically transporting railcars of his wealth out of the country? And why did he leave Kharkiv for Rostov?

I would be cautious for information on the first one, as for the second one, as I stated numerous times I don't like to imply motives which are in person's head. I mean, I could make a reason of him being afraid for his own safety even in Kharkov, but you could say it wasn't and it's not factual in any way because we need to get into people's thinking. I'm not denying Yanukovich was corrupt (guess what Zelensky is too), I'm denying his ouster from power being legitimate. 

[bilaps]

In the meantime SMER wins an election in Slovakia.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/30/ukraine-aid-government-shutdown/

"Alarm Grows in Kyiv, Washington as GOP House Blocks Ukraine Aid"

The rejection of the money — nine days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky flew to Washington and pleaded with lawmakers to maintain their support — reflects hardening GOP opposition to helping Ukraine, and will send immediate shock waves through European capitals and the government in Kyiv.

I am sure the establishment in both parties will find a way to get this money through by hook or crook.  Still this is a sign of the growing strength of the anti-Ukraine aid faction within the GOP.

[CumbrianLefty]

The rebranding of Euromaidan as a “coup” has been one of the most successful Russian propaganda lines and one of the most frustrating considering it’s weak facts. When I think of the term “coup” an event where masses of people protesting the government over an economic policy, the government doing a failed violent crackdown that turns more people against them, the president resigning, his second in command taking over, elections being held, and then a new government taking over isn’t what comes to mind. It’s more worse is the smoking gun of this supposed “coup” is tedious stuff like Nuland or McCain saying in memos or phone calls that Euromaidan could lead to a pro-west government so we should support it. Yeah no sh*t they’d say/think that, any nation in that situation would have government officials saying this. I mean by that logic the American Revolution is a French backed coup

Yes, it was.

No? By every conceivable stretch of the imagination and historical record, no?

Well, the French backed it. And that is literally all that matters to some.

[Alben Barkley]

Just like when I looked to see if there was a Ukrainian version of "Nyet Molotov" on a whim and found there was indeed one, I ALSO found there was a Ukrainian version of Dylan's "Masters of War" dating back to early in the invasion!

https://twitter.com/Andylanger/status/1505636957904416774?s=20

Just amazing to me that my thinking is apparently on the same page as these brave Ukrainians. Shows some musical themes are absolutely universal and retain their power across time. As for the Dylan song, some choice lyrics for Putin include:

Let me ask you one question
Is your money that good?
Will it buy you forgiveness?
Do you think that it could?
I think you will find
When your death takes its toll
All the money you made
Will never buy back your soul

And I hope that you die
And your death will come soon
I will follow your casket
By the pale afternoon
And I'll watch while you're lowered
Down to your deathbed
And I'll stand over your grave
'Til I'm sure that you're dead

[jaichind]

Russian anti-Putin media Mediazona count of military death obituaries continues to show a decline in Russia's causalities rate.


The regional distribution of these military death obituaries is very rural heavy which plays into the narrative that those fighting in the Russia military are mostly from rural areas.

[jaichind]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/S-P-GLOBAL-INC-27377749/news/Russia-s-manufacturing-PMI-puts-in-biggest-jump-in-five-years-to-54-5-in-September-44961541/

"Russia's manufacturing PMI puts in biggest jump in five years to 54.5 in September"

Russian manufacturing has grown at the fastest rate since 2017.  At of these must be military production.  This will only put inflationary pressure.  I am sure the Russian economy must now be experiencing manpower shortages as demand exceeds supply across the board.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/02/biden-admin-ukraine-strategy-corruption-00119237

"Leaked U.S. strategy on Ukraine sees corruption as the real threat"

“Perceptions of high-level corruption” the confidential version of the document warns, could “undermine the Ukrainian public’s and foreign leaders’ confidence in the war-time government.”

[pppolitics]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/02/biden-admin-ukraine-strategy-corruption-00119237

"Leaked U.S. strategy on Ukraine sees corruption as the real threat"

“Perceptions of high-level corruption” the confidential version of the document warns, could “undermine the Ukrainian public’s and foreign leaders’ confidence in the war-time government.”

That’s right.

Endemic corruption has made Russia a weak and failing state.

Rooting out corruption in Ukraine is helping Ukraine defeat Russia, speeding up Russia’s collapse.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Just like when I looked to see if there was a Ukrainian version of "Nyet Molotov" on a whim and found there was indeed one, I ALSO found there was a Ukrainian version of Dylan's "Masters of War" dating back to early in the invasion!

https://twitter.com/Andylanger/status/1505636957904416774?s=20

Just amazing to me that my thinking is apparently on the same page as these brave Ukrainians. Shows some musical themes are absolutely universal and retain their power across time. As for the Dylan song, some choice lyrics for Putin include:

Let me ask you one question
Is your money that good?
Will it buy you forgiveness?
Do you think that it could?
I think you will find
When your death takes its toll
All the money you made
Will never buy back your soul

And I hope that you die
And your death will come soon
I will follow your casket
By the pale afternoon
And I'll watch while you're lowered
Down to your deathbed
And I'll stand over your grave
'Til I'm sure that you're dead

Would not be glorifying the song from a Nazi co-belligerent regime which brags about how they're going to send the Russians "past the Urals"

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-congress-funding-13727f76561a80d2f00267a13667c33a

"The Pentagon warns Congress it is running low on money to replace weapons sent to Ukraine"

Time for another accounting error?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1708983532326990202?s=12
Russia’s military running smoothly I see