Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67748813

"Ukraine war: Kyiv forced to cut military operations as foreign aid dries up"

Ukraine has warned it is already being forced to downsize some military operations because of a drop-off in foreign aid.

Top general Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said troops faced ammunition shortages along the "entire front line", creating a "big problem" for Kyiv.

Again, members of the Ukraine military are talking to the media about how "bad" things are.  Since it is Zelensky's job to put on a dog and pony show to get foreign aid it seems likely these stories are meant to make Zelensky look bad by Zaluzhny's gang in the Ukraine military.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/18/ukraine-russia-war-civil-rights-freedom-speech-religion/

"Ukraine Has a Civil Rights Problem"

The very fact that resistance to forcible Ukrainianization in education, language usage, internet media, and music has persisted, even as Ukraine struggles desperately for survival, should indicate beyond any doubt that Russophile Ukrainians do not intend to abandon either their state or their identity. Forcing them to choose between the two risks planting the seeds for civil conflict long after the war with Russia is done.

There's loads of cultural diversity in Ukraine outside observers don't realize exists or don't know about.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russian-president-vladimir-putin-says-women-need-to-exploit-potential-to-fullest-amid-labour-shortage-4699330

"Putin's Women In "Purely Male Profession" Message Amid Labour Shortage"

With the Russian economy in overdrive due to the war production surge, there is a clear labor shortage that Putin wants to fill by mobilizing women into the economy.  This is the opposite of Xi in the PRC where he is now pushing traditional gender roles which would be Putin's natural instincts. Such is the imperative of the war economy.  Another thing Putin should consider is for Russia to invest in factories in Central Asian economies to augment Russia's production base.

[Storr]

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine is prompting Germany to do something unprecedented — to permanently base thousands of troops only about 100 kilometers from the border with Russia and right in the line of fire if the Kremlin ever launches an attack on NATO territory.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was in Vilnius on Monday to sign a deal with his Lithuanian counterpart Arvydas Anušauskas firming up the conditions on which 4,800 German troops plus 200 civilians will be based in the Baltic country."

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1737088602574606499?s=20

[CumbrianLefty]

This is the problem now with the Collective West PR machine.  They need to say both of

a) The Russian military has been cribbled due to military and economic aid to Ukraine.  It was great ROI, we need to keep it up
b) if we do not continue aid to Ukraine then the Russian war machine will become stronger than ever and will become a mortal threat to NATO

Clearly, both a) and b) cannot be true simultaneously, but the PR machine needs both arguments for internal consumption to mobilize domestic support for more aid to Ukraine.

They can both be sort of true, as one is a short term thing and the other longer term.

[oldtimer]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russian-president-vladimir-putin-says-women-need-to-exploit-potential-to-fullest-amid-labour-shortage-4699330

"Putin's Women In "Purely Male Profession" Message Amid Labour Shortage"

With the Russian economy in overdrive due to the war production surge, there is a clear labor shortage that Putin wants to fill by mobilizing women into the economy.  This is the opposite of Xi in the PRC where he is now pushing traditional gender roles which would be Putin's natural instincts. Such is the imperative of the war economy.  Another thing Putin should consider is for Russia to invest in factories in Central Asian economies to augment Russia's production base.

What War Economy ?

Russia's capacity utilization is stagnant at 61%, America is at 78%.

In a War Economy capacity utilization would be 100% and in a stagnant peacefull economy 80%.

The USSR had capacity to produce about 1.5 million vehicles, now Russia makes 50k.
The USSR could produce a few hundred planes a year, now Russia makes half a dozen.

Russia still has half of the Soviet industrial capacity, but does nothing with it even in a major war.

[Woody]

Zaluzhny and the General Staff has proposed a plan to Zelensky for the mobilization of additional 500,000 Ukrainian men. Another potential big blow for the Ukrainian demographic decline:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1737156709095706962

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1737123475402235969?s=12
Ukraine mass producing drone goals are quite reasonable but mass production of ammo is still going to need Western support

[jaichind]

https://www.globalvillagespace.com/ukraine-must-copy-1944-nazi-germany-retired-us-general/

"Ukraine must copy 1944 Nazi Germany – retired US general"

Former commander of US Army forces stationed in Europe Ben Hodges recommends Ukraine copy 1944 Germany in terms of total mobilization which I have to assume will also include Volkssturm units.   

[jaichind]

Zaluzhny and the General Staff has proposed a plan to Zelensky for the mobilization of additional 500,000 Ukrainian men. Another potential big blow for the Ukrainian demographic decline:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1737156709095706962

He also says that the war will last a long time and he does not know when it will end.  On that part, I would agree with him that the war will go on for a while so it will be a war of human, resource, and political attrition.

[jaichind]

https://tass.com/defense/1723781

"Shoigu says Russian army is most combat capable in world"

Shoigu claims

Since February 2022, the output of tanks has increased 5.6 times, armored vehicles - 3.5-3.6 times, drones - 16.8 times, and artillery shells - 17.5 times.

While I am sure Russian war production must have surged since the war the scale of the surge is not clear since the baseline of comparison that Shoigu uses is not clear when he does his multiples.  The tank and drone ratios seem reasonable since Russian tank and drone production before the war was fairly low.  It is the 17.5 times output surge in artillery shells that seems massive since old USSR military doctrine always believed in massive production and storage of ammo so a 17.5 times output increase seems quite huge and harder to believe although clearly since this war is coming down to ammo I am sure Russia had an output surge there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1737123475402235969?s=12
Ukraine mass producing drone goals are quite reasonable but mass production of ammo is still going to need Western support

I wonder if this turns into a war over who can make more drones faster.

[jaichind]

Washington Post removed the "War in Ukraine"  section from its website as a sign of the times, namely the general level of interest in the establishment class in the USA is low and getting lower when it comes to Ukraine.  For the DC establishment, this will eventually turn into Afghanistan, another endless war.

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67767246

"Ukraine military seeks extra 500,000 soldiers - President Zelensky"

At a news conference in Kyiv, he said his commanders were seeking "450,000-500,000 individuals", admitting this was a "sensitive" and costly issue.

Note how Zelensky says it is the military (read Zaluzhny), and not him, that wants to mobilize 450K-500K K which subtly makes Zaluzhny the "bad guy" but not himself.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/war-ukraine-turn-vladimir-putin-favor-2024-czech-president-petr-pavel/

"Ukraine war set to turn in Putin’s favor in 2024, Czech president warns"

[jaichind]

PRC's exports to Russia, especially once you consider round-trip exports via Central Asia, continue to surge as Russia's war economy continues to ramp up.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67767246

"Ukraine military seeks extra 500,000 soldiers - President Zelensky"

At a news conference in Kyiv, he said his commanders were seeking "450,000-500,000 individuals", admitting this was a "sensitive" and costly issue.

Note how Zelensky says it is the military (read Zaluzhny), and not him, that wants to mobilize 450K-500K K which subtly makes Zaluzhny the "bad guy" but not himself.

This interplay is interesting. It's likely Zelensky wishes he had more control but doesn't.

[bilaps]

Russians enter Novomikhailovka

https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3/status/1737487107730309182

In the long term it could mean problems for Ugledar group.

[Storr]

https://www.globalvillagespace.com/ukraine-must-copy-1944-nazi-germany-retired-us-general/

"Ukraine must copy 1944 Nazi Germany – retired US general"

Former commander of US Army forces stationed in Europe Ben Hodges recommends Ukraine copy 1944 Germany in terms of total mobilization which I have to assume will also include Volkssturm units.  

Shockingly, that did not turn out well for Germany.

If anyone ever says "you should copy Nazi Germany", I'd recommend not to do that.

[jaichind]

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-to-produce-1-million-drones-next-year/

"Zelensky: Ukraine to produce 1 million drones next year"



This works out to 2700 drones a day with no weekends and holidays.  This sounds fantastically difficult.  I think Zelensky is better off trying to produce 1 million shells a year. The cost would be much lower.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Doctor K

Pepsi in Russia

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CyGsvOPNh7y/

[Storr]

For those interested in learning more about how Russian state works:

"This new project from Proekt looks like a worthwhile read: A guide on the experts in Russia who prop up Vladimir Putin. Simes, Karaganov, the Valdai Club, EISI, Kostin and the FCSD, DA TEAM bloggers, Filimonov, the Izborsk Club, Zlobin, and others."

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1737407910601216006?s=20

[All Along The Watchtower]

https://www.globalvillagespace.com/ukraine-must-copy-1944-nazi-germany-retired-us-general/

"Ukraine must copy 1944 Nazi Germany – retired US general"

Former commander of US Army forces stationed in Europe Ben Hodges recommends Ukraine copy 1944 Germany in terms of total mobilization which I have to assume will also include Volkssturm units.  

Really unfortunate comparison, particularly given Russia’s propaganda about this war. And yeah, the war was already lost for Germany by 1944, which is what prompted the total mobilization.

Of course the context here is different in that Ukraine has been in the defensive position by definition since they were the ones who were invaded.

[Logical]

In strange news of the day
https://twitter.com/partizan_oleg/status/1737462349609705568?t=LpA5ak_shY9yfBdEm...

[jaichind]

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article249168566/Ukraine-Verteidigungsminister-will-in-Deutschland-lebende-Maenner-einberufen.html

"Ukrainian Defense Minister wants to conscript men living in Germany"

Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov in an interview with Welt says that Ukraine wants to conscript men living abroad into the AFU. Next year, Ukrainians of military age from 25 to 60 years old in Germany and other countries should be asked to report to recruiting stations.  Punishments for those who do not show up are also being worked out.