Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Virginiá]

In all fairness, HIMARS has had a major effect on the battlefield, even if it can't alone end the war.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but those mocking talk of all those new weapons systems as "game changers" are also saying Ukraine is doomed without new ones - you can't have it both ways, guys.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-atacms-biden-zelenskyy-long-range-missile-rcna116876

It’s looks like Biden is going to do a compromise and send Ukraine ATACMs but with cluster munitions over single warheads. The range is smaller but will allow Ukraine to hit Russian logistics in Southern Ukraine

[2952-0-0]

Yes, the media probably oversold the new weapons as "game changers" as if they could singlehandedly enable the Ukrainians to march on Sevastopol.

But let's list the impact of all the weapons cited in that troll post.

The Javelin arguably saved Kyiv by disrupting the Russian blitzkrieg. The HIMARS disrupted the Russian plan to take the entire Donbass, which Putin wanted as a consolation prize. The Patriot missiles prevented Ukrainian cities from freezing in the dark, and also revealed the impotence of Russia's most feared missiles. And the Storm Shadow destroyed Russia's most advanced air defences and is, at this very moment, turning the Black Sea Fleet into scrap metal. The jury is still out about the tanks, but it's clear that the survival rate for the crew when the tanks are hit is much higher than for Soviet tanks. So to mock the media for setting too high expectations for them, given what they actually accomplished, is enough sour grapes to fill a vineyard.

[pppolitics]

For real this time?

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1705235897849971113

[bilaps]

I mean this Sevastopol attack is just pure propaganda purposes only. One could argue that Ukraine should've used SS missiles (no pun intended) for some target that would essentialy bring some change in the battlefield.

It's clear that Ukrainian counter-offensive didn't bring noteworthy change in this conflict so Ukraine I suppose could use these strikes to avert attention from it's failures. Or maybe better word than failure is setting unreasonable high expectations.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I mean this Sevastopol attack is just pure propaganda purposes only. One could argue that Ukraine should've used SS missiles (no pun intended) for some target that would essentialy bring some change in the battlefield.

It's clear that Ukrainian counter-offensive didn't bring noteworthy change in this conflict so Ukraine I suppose could use these strikes to avert attention from it's failures. Or maybe better word than failure is setting unreasonable high expectations.

Do you need a handkerchief comrade Ivan?

[2952-0-0]

"Ukraine struck the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet for the lulz.".

What air defense doing?

[bilaps]

"Ukraine struck the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet for the lulz.".

What air defense doing?

With the amount of territory that air defense needs to cover in this war, there's no air defense in the world who could do that. Bigger problem for Russians are planes which carry these missiles

[2952-0-0]

Ukraine destroyed the S-400 air defense before going open-season on targets in the Crimea. Wiki states that Russia has one regiment of the more advanced S-500 air defense system, but it's understandably deployed in Moscow.

Hence, all the Russian-controlled territories have effectively no air defense. The only constraint is the amount of ammo at Ukraine's disposal.

What air defense doing?

[bilaps]

Ukraine destroyed the S-400 air defense before going open-season on targets in the Crimea. Wiki states that Russia has one regiment of the more advanced S-500 air defense system, but it's understandably deployed in Moscow.

Hence, all the Russian-controlled territories have effectively no air defense. The only constraint is the amount of ammo at Ukraine's disposal.

What air defense doing?

Lol, this is totally false.

[jaichind]

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/poland-stops-sending-weapons-to-ukraine-says-pm-41460

"Poland stops sending weapons to Ukraine says PM"

Poland-Ukraine escalation continues.  Perhaps this is also PiS trying to make sure that the Confederation does not take votes from it due to the Ukraine issue.

BBC making similar arguments I am making about the role of PiS losing votes to Confederation  due to Ukraine issue

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66882161

"A shadow of 'Ukraine fatigue' hangs over Polish politics"

[jaichind]

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force transgender spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo announces that: " Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world."

https://twitter.com/ducaena/status/1701741396363792650

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force says that their spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo is "suspended immediately pending the investigation."  I guess going after Senator Vance finally got her in trouble especially when Yelensky is in DC trying to get more $$$ and angering USA Senators does not sound like a good way to get more money.

https://twitter.com/TDF_UA/status/1704513695508774938

[oldtimer]

Ukraine destroyed the S-400 air defense before going open-season on targets in the Crimea. Wiki states that Russia has one regiment of the more advanced S-500 air defense system, but it's understandably deployed in Moscow.

Hence, all the Russian-controlled territories have effectively no air defense. The only constraint is the amount of ammo at Ukraine's disposal.

What air defense doing?

Large complex air defence systems have never worked in practice against small targets, plus they have missiles but few in number against thousands of drones.

A % of drones will always get through and hit their target.

So Electronic Warfare will take over, attacking their radio controls or their electronic guidance systems  (Starlink , GPS ect.), probably high energy microwave pulses or anti-satellite weapons.

But you only need 1 drone to get through to destroy a stationary target on the surface.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-president-says-ukrainian-grain-row-wont-significantly-affect-relations-2023-09-22/

"Polish PM tells Ukraine's Zelenskiy 'never to insult Poles again'"

[YPestis25]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-president-says-ukrainian-grain-row-wont-significantly-affect-relations-2023-09-22/

"Polish PM tells Ukraine's Zelenskiy 'never to insult Poles again'"

Of course your post ignores this part:

"I have no doubt that the dispute over the supply of grain from Ukraine to the Polish market is an absolute fragment of the entire Polish-Ukrainian relations," Duda told a business conference.

"I don't believe that it can have a significant impact on them, so we need to solve this matter between us."

As well as the context that much of this hullabaloo is being driven by election pressures, and not a real split - but never let facts get in the way of a good narrative!

[pppolitics]

goodbye

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1705287293441917262

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1705337250798592023?s=20

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-president-says-ukrainian-grain-row-wont-significantly-affect-relations-2023-09-22/

"Polish PM tells Ukraine's Zelenskiy 'never to insult Poles again'"

Of course your post ignores this part:

"I have no doubt that the dispute over the supply of grain from Ukraine to the Polish market is an absolute fragment of the entire Polish-Ukrainian relations," Duda told a business conference.

"I don't believe that it can have a significant impact on them, so we need to solve this matter between us."

As well as the context that much of this hullabaloo is being driven by election pressures, and not a real split - but never let facts get in the way of a good narrative!

The URL of the article that he links goes against his cherry-picked narrative. One would think he'd at least go to the effort of having it pothole rather than keeping that URL clearly visible in the body of his disingenuous post, but jaichind is about as hardworking as most ultra-rich people from Scarsdale.

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/us/politics/zelensky-biden-ukraine-war-strategy.html

 “Zelensky’s visit showed the strategic gap between Ukraine and the United States.”

Zelensky wants to focus on Bakhmut  while the Americans want to focus on Southern front

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1704894820756447524

[Virginiá]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/us/politics/zelensky-biden-ukraine-war-strategy.html

 “Zelensky’s visit showed the strategic gap between Ukraine and the United States.”

Zelensky wants to focus on Bakhmut  while the Americans want to focus on Southern front

There's an indomitable paywall for me, so I'm just going off the headline, but while Ukraine is putting some resources into the Bakhmut region, it's pretty clear most of their capabilities are fixed in the south. And even if Ukraine moved everything to the southern front, Russia would then have forces in Bakhmut freed up for that direction as well.

That quote gives a different impression of what is actually happening on the ground.

[CumbrianLefty]

We can go on about jaichind (and do) but arguably the real issue is so many articles having at times totally misleading "clickbait" headlines. And they know full well that is all a lot of people will look at.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-22/russia-plans-huge-defense-spending-hike-in-2024-as-war-drags-on

"Russia Plans Huge Defense Spending Hike in 2024 as War Drags"

Russia's defense spending in 2024 will be 6% of GDP when compared to 3.4% in 2023

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1705566988074914257