Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

From Bloomberg: "Ukraine’s Slow Offensive Leaves Allies Worried, Putin Buoyed"

Ukraine’s allies now worry the war is dragging into a long fight that may strengthen Vladimir Putin’s hand as hopes fade that Kyiv’s forces will deliver a definitive breakthrough this year.

If fighting grinds to an impasse over the winter, “it’s a really big problem, there’s going to be war fatigue,” said Samantha de Bendern, an associate fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. “The US is going to be less and less interested in what’s happening in Ukraine and it’s going to be more and more difficult for Europeans to convince the Americans that Ukraine is an American problem.”

[jaichind]

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/nord-stream-anschlag-in-der-ostsee-die-spuren-fuehren-in-eine-richtung-in-die-ukraine-a-befcbfbb-b1cd-4912-aeaa-56bef4dd8047

"The traces lead in one direction – to Ukraine"

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1695033860461887851

❗️The Armed Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine crossed the main first line of defense of the 🇷🇺Russians, - Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the 🇺🇸United States, General Mark Milley.

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1695030580302221330

General Milley: Ukrainian Armed Forces have crossed the main first line of defense of the Russians

According to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Milley, the Ukrainian offensive is "slow" but not a failure.

"They have crossed the main first line of defense.…

[pppolitics]

There are some rumors that Ukraine may have taken Novoprokopivka, the town south of Robotyne on the Russian main defense line:



However, it is a bit unclear, because the town of Novopokrovka, in the north-east corner of the map, is spelled very similarly (also depending on Russian vs Ukrainian spellings).

The next defensive line appears to be at Solodka Balka.

Maybe the Russians are falling back to Solodka Balka.

[Storr]

The erasure of Wagner has begun:

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1695046867300626734?s=20

[oldtimer]

Putin has given condolences to Prigozhin's family.

Next, he will order a state funeral, with all flags ordered lowered to half staff. At the funeral, he will be the first coffin bearer, posthumously award Prigozhin a medal, and then make the eulogy.

Following that, Putin will order lots of public buildings and places to be named after Prigozhin.

Just like Stalin with Kirov.

[oldtimer]

From Bloomberg: "Ukraine’s Slow Offensive Leaves Allies Worried, Putin Buoyed"

Ukraine’s allies now worry the war is dragging into a long fight that may strengthen Vladimir Putin’s hand as hopes fade that Kyiv’s forces will deliver a definitive breakthrough this year.

If fighting grinds to an impasse over the winter, “it’s a really big problem, there’s going to be war fatigue,” said Samantha de Bendern, an associate fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. “The US is going to be less and less interested in what’s happening in Ukraine and it’s going to be more and more difficult for Europeans to convince the Americans that Ukraine is an American problem.”

Give up Jaichind, even if Russia wins Putin will still purge you.

[2952-0-0]

Give up Jaichind, even if Russia wins Putin will still purge you.

He's safe. Putin only purges his most competent minions, those who have shown to have their own agency.

[jaichind]

Front cover of the German magzine The Week.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A leader of the neo-Nazi Rusich PMC has been apprehended in Finland and will, allegedly, be extradited to Ukraine. Rusich was famous for providing detailed instructions on how to commit warcrimes on Telegram, including one on how to inflict fatal - but not visibily fatal - injuries on POWs, so as to avoid alerting commanding officers of extrajudicial killings.

Rusich's spokespeople on Telegram have claimed they will refuse to fight until the Russian government does something to free him. He may yet end up in a prisoner exchange. He had previously been deported by Norway and fought in a militia in Syria, and was under sanctions. I'm not sure how he ended up in Finland.

[pppolitics]

Yikes!

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1695187031494717440

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Give up Jaichind, even if Russia wins Putin will still purge you.

He's safe. Putin only purges his most competent minions, those who have shown to have their own agency.

We just hear about them louder.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

A leader of the neo-Nazi Rusich PMC has been apprehended in Finland and will, allegedly, be extradited to Ukraine. Rusich was famous for providing detailed instructions on how to commit warcrimes on Telegram, including one on how to inflict fatal - but not visibily fatal - injuries on POWs, so as to avoid alerting commanding officers of extrajudicial killings.

Rusich's spokespeople on Telegram have claimed they will refuse to fight until the Russian government does something to free him. He may yet end up in a prisoner exchange. He had previously been deported by Norway and fought in a militia in Syria, and was under sanctions. I'm not sure how he ended up in Finland.

Yan Petrovsky, the deputy of Alexei Milchakov, who is the real leader of the Rusich sabotage and assault intelligence unit, consisting of neo-Nazis. The unit is associated with the fascist organization Russian Imperial Movement and is also considered part of the Wagner PMC.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Some promising tidbits seem to be starting to leak out from the Ukrainian media blackout:

https://www.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1695384486647623735

BREAKING: Ukrainian commander "Kombat" says his forces have breached the most difficult Russian defensive line in southern Ukraine

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1695378258181706075

Aug 26, 2023: Update on the Robotyne AO

Map: @Majakovsk73
 (with my overlays)

The AFU 82nd Air Mobile Brigade is carrying the brunt of the fight south of #Robotyne while the 46th Assault Brigade does the same to the east in the direction of #Verbove. Russian sources have admitted that the 82nd has made gains to the east and occupied a portion of the main Russian defenses in that direction.

Rumors that the Russians are fighting in Robotyne appear to be just that. Instead, there are a grouping of trenches and strongpoints in the gap between Robotyne and #Novoprokopivka from which the Russian 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, supported by other units, has attempted several counterattacks with little if any tangible results due to heavy artillery fire from AFU supporting units to the rear. This is not to say, however, that the fighting in this sector has not been brutal with losses on both sides.

Note: This is not OPSEC and is based on OSINT from Russian and Ukrainian Sources:

There are also indications that the AFU has cleared and penetrated some of the heavily mined areas along Russia's main line of defense in this area. Key to this are reports from Ukrainian sources that they have taken control of one or more key GLOC(s) (ground lines of communication). If true, this is extremely good news. Controlling these GLOCs will not only allow the AFU to further breach the  main lines of defense, but increase the tempo of their advances. In a sign that the AFU will move rapidly to take advantage of this, the Russian Mil-blogger Rybar reported this morning, with a sense of trepidation, that the AFU has positioned additional reserves in the AO (18th Mechanized Brigade and 15th Kara-Dag National Guard Brigade) which, in his words, will "enter the battle to further break through the defense." "Further" being the operative word.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Good news. I hope these detailed news are not too quick, because the Russian troops are happy to use leaks of Ukrainian information.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Word on the street that Zelensky is going to be reshuffling his cabinet soon, apparently there’s a new scandal involving a Ukrainian owned Turkish company that cut corners on winter uniforms they sold to the Ukrainian military that ended up costing the government millions and Reznikov didn’t crackdown hard enough on them about it so he’s expected to get demoted to some ambassador role and out of MOD

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Word on the street that Zelensky is going to be reshuffling his cabinet soon, apparently there’s a new scandal involving a Ukrainian owned Turkish company that cut corners on winter uniforms they sold to the Ukrainian military that ended up costing the government millions and Reznikov didn’t crackdown hard enough on them about it so he’s expected to get demoted to some ambassador role and out of MOD

It's a pity to hear the misappropriation of Ukrainian army funds, because there were also my small contributions.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Word on the street that Zelensky is going to be reshuffling his cabinet soon, apparently there’s a new scandal involving a Ukrainian owned Turkish company that cut corners on winter uniforms they sold to the Ukrainian military that ended up costing the government millions and Reznikov didn’t crackdown hard enough on them about it so he’s expected to get demoted to some ambassador role and out of MOD

It's a pity to hear the misappropriation of Ukrainian army funds, because there were also my small contributions.

It’s also treason considering the circumstances

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1695463241235734632
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1695463242812756286
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1695463244268273803
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1695463246000488855
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1695463247418216914
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1695463248949018703
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1695463250538709496
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1695463252073795716

[Virginiá]

Yikes!

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1695187031494717440

Unfortunately they did lose 3 pilots but the aircraft lost were L-39 trainers, not MiG-29s

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/26/europe/ukraine-plane-crash-intl/index.html

Three Ukrainian pilots, including a well-known pilot who went by the call sign “Juice,” have died in a plane crash, the Ukrainian Air Force said on Saturday.

The incident occurred on Friday, August 25, near the city of Zhytomyr, about 140 kilometers (87 miles) west of Kyiv. The crews of two L-39 combat trainer aircraft collided in the sky while performing a combat mission, according to the Air Force.

[Florida Man for Crime]

More apparent good news.

There are rumors that Ukraine has taken hill 166, which is the high ground in the middle of the first of the 2 main Surovikin defense lines (see the tweets pppolitics just posted above).

https://t.me/s/defender_skadovsk





If true, Hill 166 is very important because it will allow Ukrainian artillery to dominate the area (and just as importantly, deny it to the Russians).


Russians report the situation is "extremely dangerous":

https://t.me/Donbas_Operativniy/53305




Russians are trying to commit some of their best units (in particular 76th VDV division) to try to avoid a breakthrough:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1695497648705241118
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1695499983456223677

[pppolitics]

More apparent good news.

There are rumors that Ukraine has taken hill 166, which is the high ground in the middle of the first of the 2 main Surovikin defense lines (see the tweets pppolitics just posted above).

https://t.me/s/defender_skadovsk





If true, Hill 166 is very important because it will allow Ukrainian artillery to dominate the area (and just as importantly, deny it to the Russians).


Russians are trying to commit some of their best units (in particular 76th VDV division) to try to avoid a breakthrough:

Did the name "Hill 166" come from Daily Kos?

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/19/2188117/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-is-about-to-reach-the-downhill-part-of-the-Tokmak-offensive-literally

[Florida Man for Crime]

Did the name "Hill 166" come from Daily Kos?

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/19/2188117/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-is-about-to-reach-the-downhill-part-of-the-Tokmak-offensive-literally

Don't think so. It is referred to here as Hill 166 as well for example:

https://old.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/15xbbog/tom_cooper_is_reporting_hill_166_has_been/

AFAIK it is a standard thing for militaries to give hills numbers as a way to identify them. If you read old reports from WW2 and other wars, there are lots of reports about battles for hill #___

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Did the name "Hill 166" come from Daily Kos?

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/19/2188117/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-is-about-to-reach-the-downhill-part-of-the-Tokmak-offensive-literally

Don't think so. It is referred to here as Hill 166 as well for example:

https://old.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/15xbbog/tom_cooper_is_reporting_hill_166_has_been/

AFAIK it is a standard thing for militaries to give hills numbers as a way to identify them. If you read old reports from WW2 and other wars, there are lots of reports about battles for hill #___

More depressingly, if you read reports from the Syrian civil war, you'll find a lot of reporting on "strategic" hills and "cities" of 300 people (pre-war population).

[Florida Man for Crime]

Rumors from Ukrainians of a 6 to 8 kilometer breakthrough towards Ocherevate (I assume this is alternative spelling of Ocheretuvate):

https://t.me/s/defender_skadovsk

✙ SKADOVSK DEFENDER 🇺🇦 LIBERATION OF THE LEFT BANK ✊🇺🇦
The Ukrainian Armed Forces expanded the breakthrough line to 6-8 km towards Ocherevate. Orcs have lost their main artillery concentration area. Mines are already flying there. Near Ilchenkove there is a battle for the main height. Novopokrovka - counterattacks.

That would be quite significant if true. Ocheretuvate is on the 2nd of the big 2 prepared lines of defense. So if Ukraine can get through that, they should be out of the area where Russia has huge prepared minefields, dragons teeth, and AT ditches and into an easier situation for an offensive: