Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[bilaps]

A lot of assumptions there.  Country was in the middle of a revolution and you want to take for a fact someone's state of mind as an argument which of course we could never know. Nice way not to answer the real question though because it's "fiction". But that fiction somehow always becomes reality in the countries where US has some interests in regime change.

“Real question” = scenario you made up in your head

Still no evidence of a Right Sector coup?

I’m not making any assumptions about state of mind. Here’s a simple question: why did Yanukovych leave Kharkiv? Think on it. Did you even know he went to Kharkiv first before checking Wikipedia?

Scenario that would pretty much correspond to what happened in Ukraine. No answer, ok.

Yes, you are making assumptions about state of mind left and right. State of mind of Yanukovich which fled to Kharkov and then Rostov. I don't know what his state mind was, but neither do you. State of mind of people from his own party that changed sides. Idk, maaaybe there was this revolution going on and people could figure out what was 2+2 so they changed sides. Never seen in the real world, I guess. Or maybe they were afraid. Cause you admit those RS people are some nasty people for sure. Police officers killed, demonstrators killed, government buildings overrun, threats of total armed rebellion if Yanukovich doesn't resign, opposition not following their own agreement, thugs and demonstrators being against it from day one, military chiefs stepping down. All in all pretty normal situation in a democracy, let's have some votes!

[KaiserDave]

A lot of assumptions there.  Country was in the middle of a revolution and you want to take for a fact someone's state of mind as an argument which of course we could never know. Nice way not to answer the real question though because it's "fiction". But that fiction somehow always becomes reality in the countries where US has some interests in regime change.

“Real question” = scenario you made up in your head

Still no evidence of a Right Sector coup?

I’m not making any assumptions about state of mind. Here’s a simple question: why did Yanukovych leave Kharkiv? Think on it. Did you even know he went to Kharkiv first before checking Wikipedia?

Scenario that would pretty much correspond to what happened in Ukraine. No answer, ok.

Yes, you are making assumptions about state of mind left and right. State of mind of Yanukovich which fled to Kharkov and then Rostov. I don't know what his state mind was, but neither do you. State of mind of people from his own party that changed sides. Idk, maaaybe there was this revolution going on and people could figure out what was 2+2 so they changed sides. Never seen in the real world, I guess. Or maybe they were afraid. Cause you admit those RS people are some nasty people for sure. Police officers killed, demonstrators killed, government buildings overrun, threats of total armed rebellion if Yanukovich doesn't resign, opposition not following their own agreement, thugs and demonstrators being against it from day one, military chiefs stepping down. All in all pretty normal situation in a democracy, let's have some votes!

I do not deny there was a Revolution in Ukraine, it was a revolution that forced the government to make major concessions on February 21, but the removal of Yanukovych was consistent with legal convention. Which is more then Yanukovych can say, after all, he inaugurated chaos by targeting demonstrators with violence and passing the Anti-Protest laws through abrogation of procedure and the law. Yanukovych lost the support of bureaucrats and officers because he was the one who brought violence to Kyiv. You spend all this time talking about Right Sector, and they were nasty, but their role in effecting events in Kyiv was marginal at best. They were good at getting into fights (which the regime cynically abetted), but they did not command significant influence nor did they possess the loyalty of street demonstrators. The revolution was popular, decentralized, and organic, not commandeered by a far right conspiracy.

Yanukovych never allowed for February 21 to be implemented due to his exit from the country, which was based on a fear of legal removal and possible prosecution. If he was worried about his personal safety, why did he leave Kharkiv? For what reason did he flee the country? His removal was obvious! It didn’t matter what the climate was, how could anybody supposed to remain in power who has fled the country with billions of dollars. Was the Rada obligated to invite him back? After all the chaos he brought?

[bilaps]

A lot of assumptions there.  Country was in the middle of a revolution and you want to take for a fact someone's state of mind as an argument which of course we could never know. Nice way not to answer the real question though because it's "fiction". But that fiction somehow always becomes reality in the countries where US has some interests in regime change.

“Real question” = scenario you made up in your head

Still no evidence of a Right Sector coup?

I’m not making any assumptions about state of mind. Here’s a simple question: why did Yanukovych leave Kharkiv? Think on it. Did you even know he went to Kharkiv first before checking Wikipedia?

Scenario that would pretty much correspond to what happened in Ukraine. No answer, ok.

Yes, you are making assumptions about state of mind left and right. State of mind of Yanukovich which fled to Kharkov and then Rostov. I don't know what his state mind was, but neither do you. State of mind of people from his own party that changed sides. Idk, maaaybe there was this revolution going on and people could figure out what was 2+2 so they changed sides. Never seen in the real world, I guess. Or maybe they were afraid. Cause you admit those RS people are some nasty people for sure. Police officers killed, demonstrators killed, government buildings overrun, threats of total armed rebellion if Yanukovich doesn't resign, opposition not following their own agreement, thugs and demonstrators being against it from day one, military chiefs stepping down. All in all pretty normal situation in a democracy, let's have some votes!

I do not deny there was a Revolution in Ukraine, it was a revolution that forced the government to make major concessions on February 21, but the removal of Yanukovych was consistent with legal convention. Which is more then Yanukovych can say, after all, he inaugurated chaos by targeting demonstrators with violence and passing the Anti-Protest laws through abrogation of procedure and the law. Yanukovych lost the support of bureaucrats and officers because he was the one who brought violence to Kyiv. You spend all this time talking about Right Sector, and they were nasty, but their role in effecting events in Kyiv was marginal at best. They were good at getting into fights (which the regime cynically abetted), but they did not command significant influence nor did they possess the loyalty of street demonstrators. The revolution was popular, decentralized, and organic, not commandeered by a far right conspiracy.

Yanukovych never allowed for February 21 to be implemented due to his exit from the country, which was based on a fear of legal prosecution. His removal was obvious! It didn’t matter what the climate was, how could anybody supposed to remain in power who has fled the country with billions of dollars. Was the Rada obligated to invite him back? After all the chaos he brought?

Right sector and other thugs were there for a reason. I don't know much revolutions that occur without some people taking up arms and willing to fight. You rarely change government in a totally peacefull way. So they were pretty important factor there.

If you agree that this was revolution, I don't know what are we talking about. You are arguing that in spite of this being a revolution, some sort of legality was preserved. I argue that in these situations where people are on the streets killing each other, some decisions may be "legal" de jure, but de facto are made under immense pressure.

And my point in bringing up US situation was that if this happened on January 6th, vast majority of this board would be screaming insurection. I mean, it didn't happen and it's still an insurection

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s noticeable that bilaps keeps ducking the fact about Russia’s role in causing the fighting in the Donbas

[bilaps]

It’s noticeable that bilaps keeps ducking the fact about Russia’s role in causing the fighting in the Donbas

Of course Russia had a role in fighting in Donbas, nobody is disputing that.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s noticeable that bilaps keeps ducking the fact about Russia’s role in causing the fighting in the Donbas

Of course Russia had a role in fighting in Donbas, nobody is disputing that.

You’re phrasing it a lot differently here

Roses are red, autumn has arrived, coup is a coup and Ukraine is still stuck in Zaporožje.

Like all good vatniks you resort to trolling because the facts don’t back you up

It's really something to sit there with a straight face and say the facts don't back you up. What facts don't back me up? They are stuck.

That nothing that happened in Euromaiden meets any definition of a coup

I thought that we were talking about Ukrainian southern offensive. I really don't want to get into Mirriam Webster type of bs here. The fact remains that legally elected government was illegally removed. You can call it a coup, maidan, revolution or whatever. And even bigger factor was that there was a big chunk of population that didn't want to accept new government and their military in area where they are majority. Hence, the war. I'm really missing what part of this paragraph is even remotely untrue.

[bilaps]

Well, I don't see much of a difference there. There was a big chunk of population that didn't agree with Maidan and ofcourse Russians have been involved there, it was in their interest. And if we talk only about Donbas, there is literally no doubt that majority of the people there were pro Russian.

[jaichind]

NYT map of gains/losses since Jan 1 2023.  So far in 2023 it is a war of inches.

[oldtimer]

NYT map of gains/losses since Jan 1 2023.  So far in 2023 it is a war of inches.

Now this is the only interesting thing you've posted about this War.

[KaiserDave]

A lot of assumptions there.  Country was in the middle of a revolution and you want to take for a fact someone's state of mind as an argument which of course we could never know. Nice way not to answer the real question though because it's "fiction". But that fiction somehow always becomes reality in the countries where US has some interests in regime change.

“Real question” = scenario you made up in your head

Still no evidence of a Right Sector coup?

I’m not making any assumptions about state of mind. Here’s a simple question: why did Yanukovych leave Kharkiv? Think on it. Did you even know he went to Kharkiv first before checking Wikipedia?

Scenario that would pretty much correspond to what happened in Ukraine. No answer, ok.

Yes, you are making assumptions about state of mind left and right. State of mind of Yanukovich which fled to Kharkov and then Rostov. I don't know what his state mind was, but neither do you. State of mind of people from his own party that changed sides. Idk, maaaybe there was this revolution going on and people could figure out what was 2+2 so they changed sides. Never seen in the real world, I guess. Or maybe they were afraid. Cause you admit those RS people are some nasty people for sure. Police officers killed, demonstrators killed, government buildings overrun, threats of total armed rebellion if Yanukovich doesn't resign, opposition not following their own agreement, thugs and demonstrators being against it from day one, military chiefs stepping down. All in all pretty normal situation in a democracy, let's have some votes!

I do not deny there was a Revolution in Ukraine, it was a revolution that forced the government to make major concessions on February 21, but the removal of Yanukovych was consistent with legal convention. Which is more then Yanukovych can say, after all, he inaugurated chaos by targeting demonstrators with violence and passing the Anti-Protest laws through abrogation of procedure and the law. Yanukovych lost the support of bureaucrats and officers because he was the one who brought violence to Kyiv. You spend all this time talking about Right Sector, and they were nasty, but their role in effecting events in Kyiv was marginal at best. They were good at getting into fights (which the regime cynically abetted), but they did not command significant influence nor did they possess the loyalty of street demonstrators. The revolution was popular, decentralized, and organic, not commandeered by a far right conspiracy.

Yanukovych never allowed for February 21 to be implemented due to his exit from the country, which was based on a fear of legal prosecution. His removal was obvious! It didn’t matter what the climate was, how could anybody supposed to remain in power who has fled the country with billions of dollars. Was the Rada obligated to invite him back? After all the chaos he brought?

Right sector and other thugs were there for a reason. I don't know much revolutions that occur without some people taking up arms and willing to fight. You rarely change government in a totally peacefull way. So they were pretty important factor there.

If you agree that this was revolution, I don't know what are we talking about. You are arguing that in spite of this being a revolution, some sort of legality was preserved. I argue that in these situations where people are on the streets killing each other, some decisions may be "legal" de jure, but de facto are made under immense pressure.

And my point in bringing up US situation was that if this happened on January 6th, vast majority of this board would be screaming insurection. I mean, it didn't happen and it's still an insurection

That sounds like a you problem because I can think of several. Ukraine literally had one in 2004 that was entirely peaceful, and it's a huge deal. You cannot understand 2014 without understanding 2004. Now, Maidan was not peaceful, but this image you have in your head of Right Sector as an armed terrorist vanguard for the Maidan revolutionaries is not true. They were at the fringe of the movement, it is true they were excellent at getting in the media for making Hitler salutes and getting into fights with the Berkut, but any claim that they ran Yanukovych out of the country is fictitious.

[KaiserDave]

Well, I don't see much of a difference there. There was a big chunk of population that didn't agree with Maidan and ofcourse Russians have been involved there, it was in their interest. And if we talk only about Donbas, there is literally no doubt that majority of the people there were pro Russian.

Define pro-Russian? It is one thing to be opposed to Maidan, which absolutely the majority of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as Kharkiv and possibly other oblasts were, but separatist is an entirely different position entirely. Outright separatism was an extreme position, one which did not characterize any oblast except most likely the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol.

[bilaps]

Well, I don't see much of a difference there. There was a big chunk of population that didn't agree with Maidan and ofcourse Russians have been involved there, it was in their interest. And if we talk only about Donbas, there is literally no doubt that majority of the people there were pro Russian.

Define pro-Russian? It is one thing to be opposed to Maidan, which absolutely the majority of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as Kharkiv and possibly other oblasts were, but separatist is an entirely different position entirely. Outright separatism was an extreme position, one which did not characterize any oblast except most likely the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol.

Let's say people who are more sympathetic to Russia than to Maidan. People who speak Russian, have profound connections with Russia etc.

[KaiserDave]

Well, I don't see much of a difference there. There was a big chunk of population that didn't agree with Maidan and ofcourse Russians have been involved there, it was in their interest. And if we talk only about Donbas, there is literally no doubt that majority of the people there were pro Russian.

Define pro-Russian? It is one thing to be opposed to Maidan, which absolutely the majority of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as Kharkiv and possibly other oblasts were, but separatist is an entirely different position entirely. Outright separatism was an extreme position, one which did not characterize any oblast except most likely the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol.

Let's say people who are more sympathetic to Russia than to Maidan. People who speak Russian, have profound connections with Russia etc.

"People who speak Russian" is a tricky categorization. Most Ukrainians speak Russian to varying degrees of fluency, this ranges from ardent nationalists to separatists. It is not a great indicator of where they stand. The 2001 Ukrainian Census declared that almost 30% of Ukrainians consider Russia their native language (I've linked an informative map, there's been a lot of disinformation that Russian speaker=pro-Russia, or Ukrainian speaker=nationalist, it is fact more nuanced), though Russian is in decline across Ukraine, including unoccupied Donbas, since 2014, and doubly so since 2022. I have said this before, but the children native Russian speakers in Ukraine will speak accented Russian, their children will speak poor Russian, and their children won't speak Russian at all.

But sure, I accept your definition. That would describe a strong majority of Donbas in 2014, but that does not include separatism. The 2014 Antimaidan movement was not majority separatist, and the DNR and LNR were almost entirely created by Russian forces, not popular uprisings.

[bilaps]

Well, of course that Russian language is gonna be in demise given what is happening from 2014 including war + propaganda, various laws and Ukrainians trying artificially to change their own language more and more so it wouldn't sound like Russian. But I was talking about people's sentiment in those areas. If you take language as a divider you'll get some division across Dnepr river prior to 2014. But if you include other factors, after Crimea, it's sure that Donbas was closer to Russia than to Ukrainian post Maidan government.

[KaiserDave]

Well, of course that Russian language is gonna be in demise given what is happening from 2014 including war + propaganda, various laws and Ukrainians trying artificially to change their own language more and more so it wouldn't sound like Russian. But I was talking about people's sentiment in those areas. If you take language as a divider you'll get some division across Dnepr river prior to 2014. But if you include other factors, after Crimea, it's sure that Donbas was closer to Russia than to Ukrainian post Maidan government.

Taking language as a divider will not get a division across the Dnipro, I would check out the map I just sent you. Ukrainian has been dominant east of the Dnipro for decades. Although I'll clarify that this is "native language." An overwhelming majority of Ukrainians east of Galicia and Volhynia spoke Russian daily in early 21st century Ukraine, regardless of their own preference.

"It's sure that Donbas was closer to Russia than to Ukrainian post Maidan government." No, this isn't true. There is no evidence that this is true. Maybe you've made this sentence intentionally confusing, but I'm going to read it as saying separatism was the dominant tendency, that's not true. Even eastern ex-Party of Regions politicians like Hennadiy Kernes and Mykhailo Dobkin rejected separatism, and the February 2014 Conference of the South-East Regions in Kharkiv (which Yanukovych stopped by on his way out of the country) rejected separatism as a strategy. Separatism was only the dominant tendency in Crimea.

The Antimaidan movement was characterized by widespread dissatisfaction with the material status quo, corruption, oligarchism, and opposition to Maidan, but demonstrators by and large considered Ukraine their motherland. We know this because outright separatist parties were on the absolute fringe of Ukrainian electoral politics both before, and after Maidan. Regionalism and federalist parties were far more relevant. Russian nationalism has never been an electoral winner in Ukraine outside of Crimea.

[bilaps]

I wasn't talking about separatism. Separatism came as a direct consequence of Maidan.  And yes, it has to do with Russian influence (btw any world power would not let it slide in their own backyard) but to ignore all other stuff that was going on is disingenuous

[KaiserDave]

I wasn't talking about separatism. Separatism came as a direct consequence of Maidan.  And yes, it has to do with Russian influence (btw any world power would not let it slide in their own backyard) but to ignore all other stuff that was going on is disingenuous

What other stuff going on? I have very clearly acknowledged the genuine Antimaidan movement (it's actually very important to me), I have only said that it was characterized by regionalism and federalism rather than separatism and Russian nationalism. Of course it was Russophilic, as opposed to being anti-Russia, but to say, as you said, that they felt closer to Russia than Ukraine, is fiction. They felt closer to Russia than Maidan, but in their own way, they were still patriots. Since the war started in 2022, we have not seen any pro-Russia sentiment in unoccupied eastern and southern Ukraine, for obvious reasons. But also because even Antimaidan Ukrainians were not disassociated from their own country.

Party of Regions was not a rabidly pro-Russia organization. Yanukovych won 2010 on a moderate platform focused on restoring economic stability and a middle path regarding relations with Russia and the west, promising to put Ukraine on a path to EU membership! Of course the party was deeply tied to Russian interests, but being the "party of Russia" isn't exactly a winning strategy.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What are your thoughts on US policy towards Iran, bilaps? Since a country having a revolution justifies a major power that falls out of favor because of that revolution brutally invading it almost a decade later, and all.

[pppolitics]

So many users complained about jaichind, but bilaps is far worse.

For all his misguided conclusions, at least jaichind posted his sources to back up his arguments (and I am fine okay with that).

bilaps, on the other hand, is just spewing nonsense.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So many users complained about jaichind, but bilaps is far worse.

For all his misguided conclusions, at least jaichind posted his sources to back up his arguments (and I am fine okay with that).

bilaps, on the other hand, is just spewing nonsense.

I feel the issue most have with jaichind is the spamming especially when most say the same thing and could be condensed

[bilaps]

I wasn't talking about separatism. Separatism came as a direct consequence of Maidan.  And yes, it has to do with Russian influence (btw any world power would not let it slide in their own backyard) but to ignore all other stuff that was going on is disingenuous

What other stuff going on? I have very clearly acknowledged the genuine Antimaidan movement (it's actually very important to me), I have only said that it was characterized by regionalism and federalism rather than separatism and Russian nationalism. Of course it was Russophilic, as opposed to being anti-Russia, but to say, as you said, that they felt closer to Russia than Ukraine, is fiction. They felt closer to Russia than Maidan, but in their own way, they were still patriots. Since the war started in 2022, we have not seen any pro-Russia sentiment in unoccupied eastern and southern Ukraine, for obvious reasons. But also because even Antimaidan Ukrainians were not disassociated from their own country.

Party of Regions was not a rabidly pro-Russia organization. Yanukovych won 2010 on a moderate platform focused on restoring economic stability and a middle path regarding relations with Russia and the west, promising to put Ukraine on a path to EU membership! Of course the party was deeply tied to Russian interests, but being the "party of Russia" isn't exactly a winning strategy.

I literally said closer to Russia than Maidan not Ukraine. You said it yourself russophillic, what are we talking about again?

[bilaps]

So many users complained about jaichind, but bilaps is far worse.

For all his misguided conclusions, at least jaichind posted his sources to back up his arguments (and I am fine okay with that).

bilaps, on the other hand, is just spewing nonsense.

I mean with Kaiser Dave at least you could talk, hindsight and especially you are "just spewing nonsense". You're just a lousy contributor to discusdion.

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.6%        +3.2%       +1.8%      +4.2%      +3.3%          +1.5%
Dec         -3.3%        +3.2%       +1.9%      +4.3%      +3.0%          +1.4%
Jan          -3.0%        +3.3%       +2.1%      +4.2%      +3.0%          +1.3%
Feb          -2.1%        +3.4%       +2.1%      +4.1%      +3.0%         +1.1%
Mar          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%      +3.0%         +1.0%
April         -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
May          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
****************************   Data pretty much locked in ***********************

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.7%      +4.9%        +1.3%
Dec          -2.7%       -0.1%         +0.3%       -1.0%      +4.8%        +1.3%
Jan           -2.9%        0.0%         +0.5%       -0.9%      +5.1%        +1.3%
Feb          -2.5%       +0.4%        +0.8%       -0.7%      +5.2%        +1.2%
Mar          -1.7%       +0.5%        +1.0%       -0.5%      +5.3%        +1.1%
April         -1.3%       +0.6%        +1.1%       -0.2%      +5.6%        +1.0%
May         -0.6%        +0.6%        +1.1%       +0.1%     +5.6%        +1.0%
June        +0.4%       +0.6%        +1.3%       +0.2%     +5.5%        +1.2%
July         +0.6%       +0.5%        +1.5%       +0.2%     +5.3%        +1.3%
Aug         +0.9%       +0.6%        +1.9%       +0.2%     +5.1%        +1.6%
Sept        +2.0%       +0.6%        +2.0%       +0.4%     +5.1%        +1.8%

2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.3%
Dec       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.1%          +2.4%
Jan        +13.8%       +8.4%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Feb       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Mar       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
April      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%
May      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%
****************************   Data pretty much locked in ***********************

2022 GDP and CPI locked in.

GDP numbers for 2023 have another massive jump for Russia.  The consensus for 2023 Russia growth is beginning to converge toward Russian government projections.  It seems that in 2023 Russia's GDP will be around the same as in 2021 Russia's GDP completely wiping out the impact of sanctions.  USA Japan and the UK also adjusted upward a bit.  All signs are that the EU GDP number for 2023 will most likely be adjusted downward in the coming months.  
 
Once you take into account that 2021 UK GDP growth got marked down by 0.6% and 2021 Russia GDP growth got marked up by 0.9% one can then construct a total cumulative 2022-2023 GDP loss based on current consensus/result vs. 2022 Feb consensus as a percentage of 2021 GDP

(change from August 2023 calculation)
Russia      -4.1% (+1.1%)
Eurozone  -2.5% (flat)
USA         -2.2% (+0.1%)
UK           -2.5% (+0.2%)
PRC          -2.2% (flat)
Japan       -1.7% (+0.2%)

The total economic impact on Russia in 2022-2023 made a massive jump in improvement.   Outside of Russia, it seems the effect on all other major economies is pretty much converging to around -2% to -2.5%

[bilaps]

What are your thoughts on US policy towards Iran, bilaps? Since a country having a revolution justifies a major power that falls out of favor because of that revolution brutally invading it almost a decade later, and all.

What are american interests in Iran? Is it nearby? Does Iran have some sort of American minority? How many Iraninans consider American their native language? How many have cultural and family ties to America?

And while we at it, does anyone from pro Ukraine posters here even acknowledge the fact that the city of Donetsk has been shelled constantly by Ukrainian army since 2014 killing civilians left and right?

[jaichind]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-defensive-lines-stronger-than-west-expected-admits-british-defence-chief-xjlvqrm86

"Russian lines stronger than West expected, admits British defence chief
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin warns of long war after Ukraine counteroffensive failed to achieve decisive breakthrough"