Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[oldtimer]

Typical russian incompetence.

"What... all of it!?
All of it

The whole squadron?!
The whole squadron

Including the flagship?!
Including the flagship. Including the admiral

Including the admiral.... "

[oldtimer]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-22/russia-plans-huge-defense-spending-hike-in-2024-as-war-drags-on

"Russia Plans Huge Defense Spending Hike in 2024 as War Drags"

Russia's defense spending in 2024 will be 6% of GDP when compared to 3.4% in 2023

6% wont be enough , they need at least 20%.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-22/russia-sees-energy-sales-rebuilding-wealth-fund-even-amid-war?embedded-checkout=true

"Russia Sees Energy Sales Rebuilding Wealth Fund Even Amid War"

Russia sees surging oil and gas revenues helping to replenish its National Wellbeing Fund in the next three years, even as it plans massive hikes in defense spending for its war in Ukraine and wrestles with a price cap on crude sales imposed by Kyiv’s allies.

I am skeptical that things will work out this well.  There is a clear 3-way tradeoff between Inflation, deficit, and war production.  Over the next few years war production for sure will be a constant so Russia has to balance between deficit and inflation.  Earlier this year the deficit situation was looking problematic but turned around when energy prices rose and RUB weakened.  But a weak RUB which was brought on an import surge to fuel war production turned around the deficit situation but pushed up inflation.

The current tactical workaround for inflation as far as for low-income and working-class Russians is a diesel export ban to lower retail energy prices in Russia.  This clearly is not a long-term solution.  To achieve the goals laid out in the plan above I suspect will require allowing significant inflation.  The diesel export ban shows that Putin will prioritize hitting the consumer import-heavy upper and upper-income population when that comes to pass.  The Russian upper and upper-income population are more likely to have spent time in the collective West and have contacts with people in the collective West and are the least likely to support the current war effort.  As such it seems logical to put the economic burden of the war on this population segment to "make sure they pay their fair share"

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Black Sea fleet is getting rekt by a country with no navy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Black Sea fleet is getting rekt by a country with no navy.

At least it's faring better than the Second Pacific Squadron.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Zelensky: we will severely punish the Russian Black Sea fleet
Advisors: with what ships?
Zelensky: ships? Where we're going we don't need…ships. Not when you have drones. And missiles.

*proceeds to make Sevastopol living hell for the Russian sailors*

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1705324205170971010
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1705679077024190669
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1705657294598684770

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1705648861606215870

[oldtimer]

Zelensky: we will severely punish the Russian Black Sea fleet
Advisors: with what ships?
Zelensky: ships? Where we're going we don't need…ships. Not when you have drones. And missiles.

*proceeds to make Sevastopol living hell for the Russian sailors*

That reality will change the naval balance in small seas and straits for quite some time, like the Persian Gulf.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Zelensky: we will severely punish the Russian Black Sea fleet
Advisors: with what ships?
Zelensky: ships? Where we're going we don't need…ships. Not when you have drones. And missiles.

*proceeds to make Sevastopol living hell for the Russian sailors*

That reality will change the naval balance in small seas and straits for quite some time, like the Persian Gulf.

Good times to be a drones manufacturer and/or missile producer. This war is potentially going to boost drone technology significantly.

[oldtimer]

Zelensky: we will severely punish the Russian Black Sea fleet
Advisors: with what ships?
Zelensky: ships? Where we're going we don't need…ships. Not when you have drones. And missiles.

*proceeds to make Sevastopol living hell for the Russian sailors*

That reality will change the naval balance in small seas and straits for quite some time, like the Persian Gulf.

Good times to be a drones manufacturer and/or missile producer. This war is potentially going to boost drone technology significantly.

America will be at a disadvantage though, because the cost of drones and missiles is but a tiny fraction of an aircraft carrier.

Suddenly anyone can sink America's fleet with a fraction of it's budget.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Zelensky: we will severely punish the Russian Black Sea fleet
Advisors: with what ships?
Zelensky: ships? Where we're going we don't need…ships. Not when you have drones. And missiles.

*proceeds to make Sevastopol living hell for the Russian sailors*

That reality will change the naval balance in small seas and straits for quite some time, like the Persian Gulf.

Good times to be a drones manufacturer and/or missile producer. This war is potentially going to boost drone technology significantly.

America will be at a disadvantage though, because the cost of drones and missiles is but a tiny fraction of an aircraft carrier.

Suddenly anyone can sink America's fleet with a fraction of it's budget.

America would need to invest in drones too, if the technology is boosted enough.
Would seem easiest in the short-term to use carrier group ships as mobile drone attack planning centers, but history shows that predicting the future of war can be a very fraught task.

[oldtimer]

Zelensky: we will severely punish the Russian Black Sea fleet
Advisors: with what ships?
Zelensky: ships? Where we're going we don't need…ships. Not when you have drones. And missiles.

*proceeds to make Sevastopol living hell for the Russian sailors*

That reality will change the naval balance in small seas and straits for quite some time, like the Persian Gulf.

Good times to be a drones manufacturer and/or missile producer. This war is potentially going to boost drone technology significantly.

America will be at a disadvantage though, because the cost of drones and missiles is but a tiny fraction of an aircraft carrier.

Suddenly anyone can sink America's fleet with a fraction of it's budget.

America would need to invest in drones too, if the technology is boosted enough.
Would seem easiest to use carrier group ships as mobile drone attack platforms, but history shows that predicting the future of war can be a very fraught task.

But America already has that technology for decades, people even joked about Obama and Drone strikes, it's only now that others are catching up on it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Zelensky: we will severely punish the Russian Black Sea fleet
Advisors: with what ships?
Zelensky: ships? Where we're going we don't need…ships. Not when you have drones. And missiles.

*proceeds to make Sevastopol living hell for the Russian sailors*

That reality will change the naval balance in small seas and straits for quite some time, like the Persian Gulf.

Good times to be a drones manufacturer and/or missile producer. This war is potentially going to boost drone technology significantly.

America will be at a disadvantage though, because the cost of drones and missiles is but a tiny fraction of an aircraft carrier.

Suddenly anyone can sink America's fleet with a fraction of it's budget.

America would need to invest in drones too, if the technology is boosted enough.
Would seem easiest to use carrier group ships as mobile drone attack platforms, but history shows that predicting the future of war can be a very fraught task.

But America already has that technology for decades, people even joked about Obama and Drone strikes, it's only now that others are catching up on it.

Ah, fair enough.
One can at least count on the R&D community within the US governmental apparatus to think of ways to blunt this. In combination with diplomacy and other levers.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Erdogan must be loving how Turkey is becoming the master of the Black Sea

[oldtimer]

Zelensky: we will severely punish the Russian Black Sea fleet
Advisors: with what ships?
Zelensky: ships? Where we're going we don't need…ships. Not when you have drones. And missiles.

*proceeds to make Sevastopol living hell for the Russian sailors*

That reality will change the naval balance in small seas and straits for quite some time, like the Persian Gulf.

Good times to be a drones manufacturer and/or missile producer. This war is potentially going to boost drone technology significantly.

America will be at a disadvantage though, because the cost of drones and missiles is but a tiny fraction of an aircraft carrier.

Suddenly anyone can sink America's fleet with a fraction of it's budget.

America would need to invest in drones too, if the technology is boosted enough.
Would seem easiest to use carrier group ships as mobile drone attack platforms, but history shows that predicting the future of war can be a very fraught task.

But America already has that technology for decades, people even joked about Obama and Drone strikes, it's only now that others are catching up on it.

Ah, fair enough.
One can at least count on the R&D community within the US governmental apparatus to think of ways to blunt this. In combination with diplomacy and other levers.

They are probably making new versions of UFO's (stealth and drones are older versions).

[Virginiá]

Ah, fair enough.
One can at least count on the R&D community within the US governmental apparatus to think of ways to blunt this. In combination with diplomacy and other levers.

This is part of what spurred the integration of directed energy weapons on ships. The Phalanx CIWS automated gun is also designed to defend against small attack boats like these drones.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ah, fair enough.
One can at least count on the R&D community within the US governmental apparatus to think of ways to blunt this. In combination with diplomacy and other levers.

This is part of what spurred the integration of directed energy weapons on ships. The Phalanx CIWS automated gun is also designed to defend against small attack boats like these drones.

They probably have a potential conflict in the seas around Taiwan in mind with that one.
Russia currently has plans to mass-produce drones. China could do the same thing, perhaps even more effectively due to having a larger industrial base.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I wonder why jaichind, bilaps, bigserg, or any other one of Atlas's Putin stans didn't post this.
It's a real mystery.

https://twitter.com/petite_michelle/status/1705834996269781489

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/24/ukraine-elections-war-russia-west/

"Western officials press Ukraine to hold elections despite war"

KYIV — Despite Russia’s war in Ukraine and a nationwide state of martial law, some Western politicians are pushing the government in Kyiv to hold parliamentary and presidential elections — a prospect that has left many Ukrainian officials scratching their heads.

The proposal — initially floated by Tiny Cox, the Dutch head of the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly — was also pressed by Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), during a visit to Kyiv last month with Senators Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), which otherwise focused on solidifying U.S. assistance and bipartisan support for Ukraine.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well they could never be complete elections for obvious reasons.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1705900934595764422
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1705862770351030732
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1705850488690778617
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1705861007703171129
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1705954928923906242
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1705940050226069792
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1705914990069477437

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/24/ukraine-elections-war-russia-west/

"Western officials press Ukraine to hold elections despite war"

KYIV — Despite Russia’s war in Ukraine and a nationwide state of martial law, some Western politicians are pushing the government in Kyiv to hold parliamentary and presidential elections — a prospect that has left many Ukrainian officials scratching their heads.

The proposal — initially floated by Tiny Cox, the Dutch head of the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly — was also pressed by Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), during a visit to Kyiv last month with Senators Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), which otherwise focused on solidifying U.S. assistance and bipartisan support for Ukraine.

Zelensky's officials ought to take this very seriously and walk them through what is actually needed for a comprehensive election to happen. Perhaps make comparisons to the 1864 US election as needed...

[lfromnj]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/jewish-group-demands-apology-after-mps-honoured-man-who-fought-for-nazis-1.6575593
Might as well post here, seems the entire Canadian parliament stood up and clapped for a possible Nazi collaborator from Ukraine who now lives in Canada.

[Aurelius2]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/jewish-group-demands-apology-after-mps-honoured-man-who-fought-for-nazis-1.6575593
Might as well post here, seems the entire Canadian parliament stood up and clapped for a possible Nazi collaborator from Ukraine who now lives in Canada.

I am firmly in support of Ukraine and as things stand I'm on fully board with continuing to fund them for at least another couple years. If there is one thing that would make me get tired of them, it would be pushing literal Nazis on us and expecting us to cheer for them. It's one thing to overlook groups like Azov recognizing that they are a tiny, tiny fraction of the Ukrainian resistance and that focusing overly on them creates a sort of tempest in a teapot. It is a very different matter to haul out actual WW2 Waffen SS troopers and expect us to mindlessly cheer them on. I'm not sure whether it was Zelensky or Trudeau or some shlt-for-brains MP who ginned this up, but whoever did has some serious apologizing to do. This is madness. And furthermore, shlt like this just legitimizes nonsensical Russian propaganda (nonsensical because Russia is crawling with Nazis itself).

I've read Bloodlands, I'm very aware of the destruction the USSR had wrought in Ukraine in the years leading up to WW2 and I genuinely do get why a non-Jewish Ukrainian would get to the point where they saw the Nazis as the lesser evil. WW2 in Eastern Europe was a horrifying, brutal place. That does not mean we need to actively cheer these people on though, especially when you look at the massacres of Jews and Poles they engaged in. Furthermore, this guy was part of the SS. That means he wasn't just some dude who got enemy-of-my-enemy brain and (understandably) wanted to shove it up the ass of the folks behind the Holodomor. The SS was an all-volunteer organization recruited specifically from among hardcore Nazis. This guy was a deeply ideologically committed Nazi. This is disgusting and shameful for everyone involved.