Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Torie]

Here's what I put together using the Atlanta UCC plan from earlier today. I stuck with whole counties, and brought the range down to 0.63%. Including the Atlanta UCC there are 6 county chops total which only 3 above the minimum required given the permissible range. There is one extra UCC
chops and no pack penalty.

The counties were grouped to minimize erosity by eye. I'd have to find an old erosity map of GA counties to see if there might be a grouping with lower erosity.

I didn't look at political data while drawing the plan, much like some independent commissions (eg. CA) might do. (I don't find averages including data before 2016 very indicative of current performance anyway). When they put up the 2020 PVI numbers I'll be more interested in drawing maps to better meet the political metrics of skew and polarization.

That is really a nice map in exchange for a cover penalty.

[Torie]

With cover and pack out of the way, and jettisoned where inconvenient, here is how I think I would actually draw the map if the decision were mine. I like where the cuts are and the communities of interest, and the shape of the districts, and the minority percentages.

[Torie]

And one more concept, channeling more of Muon2's map, where no county gets a tri-chop, and the pack "rules" are obeyed as to the Atlanta metro area. The map is a bit more equitable, since the Trump 2020 margin in the yellow CD is probably down to about 4 points, as compared to about 18 points for Trump 2016. So it should be on the cusp of a swing CD. It as drawn was at the epicenter of the Trump 2020 Georgia collapse (along with Cobb County, which will "never" be a competitive county again).



https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::02a89f02-d75d-4caf-9775-513c462e4298

Swing CD numbers (north Fulton, NW Gwinnett, and Forsyth) in “fair” map for Trump 2020:

[ProgressiveModerate]

It’s really interesting how Kebab and DeKalb are both almost perfect sizes to be 1 district

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s really interesting how Kebab and DeKalb are both almost perfect sizes to be 1 district

On 2010 numbers, DeKalb was just 82 away from quota, while Cobb was only 4k or so away.

[WIResident]

I drew up another map of Georgia that could be considered a fair map or a light GOP gerrymander.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/79c0c02b-14a3-401d-9b1a-166fb468828d

[Former President tack50]

Here is my attempt at a "bombproof" R gerrymander, that also isn't too egregious or ugly. I went for 9-5 while making sure all Dem districts are black districts (iirc that is what Republicans tend to prefer since a white Dem proves a bigger threat statewide right?)

Also made sure all R representatives have a district each, without putting 2 Republicans in the same seat. All Atlanta area seats are at worst Kemp+18; with the worst district overall being the Augusta centred 12th at Kemp+9, Trump+8, R+5 (so perhaps Republicans might want to shore that one up slightly even if it isn't trending much)



https://davesredistricting.org/join/92d11173-c6bc-4ef6-9405-2dd75d31f1d9

GA-01: Kemp+14, Trump+15, R+8
GA-02: Abrams+13, Clinton+11, D+5 (49% black CVAP)
GA-03: Kemp+33, Trump+33, R+19
GA-04: Abrams+59, Clinton+55, D+24 (53% black CVAP)
GA-05: Abrams+56, Clinton+54, D+24 (50% black CVAP)
GA-06: Abrams+44, Clinton+36, D+15 (52% black CVAP)
GA-07: Kemp+19, Trump+23, R+16
GA-08: Kemp+39, Trump+37, R+18
GA-09: Kemp+22, Trump+27, R+19
GA-10: Kemp+46, Trump+45, R+24
GA-11: Kemp+24, Trump+29, R+20
GA-12: Kemp+9, Trump+8, R+5
GA-13: Abrams+40, Clinton+32, D+14 (57% black CVAP)
GA-14: Kemp+42, Trump+45, R+25

[Torie]

Here is my attempt at a "bombproof" R gerrymander, that also isn't too egregious or ugly. I went for 9-5 while making sure all Dem districts are black districts (iirc that is what Republicans tend to prefer since a white Dem proves a bigger threat statewide right?)

Also made sure all R representatives have a district each, without putting 2 Republicans in the same seat. All Atlanta area seats are at worst Kemp+18; with the worst district overall being the Augusta centred 12th at Kemp+9, Trump+8, R+5 (so perhaps Republicans might want to shore that one up slightly even if it isn't trending much)



https://davesredistricting.org/join/92d11173-c6bc-4ef6-9405-2dd75d31f1d9

GA-01: Kemp+14, Trump+15, R+8
GA-02: Abrams+13, Clinton+11, D+5 (49% black CVAP)
GA-03: Kemp+33, Trump+33, R+19
GA-04: Abrams+59, Clinton+55, D+24 (53% black CVAP)
GA-05: Abrams+56, Clinton+54, D+24 (50% black CVAP)
GA-06: Abrams+44, Clinton+36, D+15 (52% black CVAP)
GA-07: Kemp+19, Trump+23, R+16
GA-08: Kemp+39, Trump+37, R+18
GA-09: Kemp+22, Trump+27, R+19
GA-10: Kemp+46, Trump+45, R+24
GA-11: Kemp+24, Trump+29, R+20
GA-12: Kemp+9, Trump+8, R+5
GA-13: Abrams+40, Clinton+32, D+14 (57% black CVAP)
GA-14: Kemp+42, Trump+45, R+25

I don't think your GA-07 is "bombproof" myself. Gwinnett has so many people, and is trending so hard and fast to the Dems (it moved 6.25% to the Dems in 2020 as compared to 2016, and  that's percentage points down in the Trump percentage - the margin changed by twice that or 13 points. Your GA-07 has 54% of your CD by votes in Gwinnett. Moreover, the slice of Gwinnett you have in your GA-07 probably trended more to the Dems than the county as a whole, given that it probably had a higher increase in the black percentage plus some higher SES whites - as an example, the crash in the Gwinnett formerly tilt Pub Garners township that is within your GA-07 slice of Gwinnett was one of shock and awe. So, I doubt your GA-07 will last the decade. But then, my GA-08 is not really "bombproof." So, the "solution," you guessed it, is a quin-chop of Gwinnett!   Desperate circumstances require desperate remedies.



https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::4dc63078-006e-43fb-bb71-36a2906f1484

Oh, here is what happened in your GA-07 in 2020, assuming your CD took in all of Jones County:



Trump's percentage in your slice of Gwinnett dropped 12 points from 2016, about twice his percentage drop for the county as a whole!

I decided to append the entire map for Georgia with the glorious Gwinnett quin-chop. That chop is really a thing of beauty. It's suitable for framing.

[Torie]

And if a quin chop of Gwinnett is a bit too much for the Pubs, where GA-05 and GA-08 were 58% and 59% Trump 2020, respectively (and who knows how long that will last), here is the cede Gwinnett map, where the Pubs have 8 "forever" safe seats, and the Dems have 6. Call this the lowest risk Pubmander.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's the Georgia Republican Party. The notion that they would have a problem with dividing a county five ways to bolster their partisan prospects is obviously absurd.

[lfromnj]

It's the Georgia Republican Party. The notion that they would have a problem with dividing a county five ways to bolster their partisan prospects is obviously absurd.

It really isn't considering both their 2005 mid-decade redraw and their 2010 redraw were both fairly moderate and relatively reasonable districts. The worst aspect of the current map is probably how GA11 grabs Buckhead rather than GA06 but I did the math and fixing this would actually make GA06 more red. IIRC it was more Nathan Deal just being mad at Price.  OTOH The Texas GOP ...

[Former President tack50]

I am surprised my GA-07 trended so fast in only 2 years. Trump+23 to Kemp+19 to only Trump+9 is a huge change

[Torie]

It's the Georgia Republican Party. The notion that they would have a problem with dividing a county five ways to bolster their partisan prospects is obviously absurd.

It really isn't considering both their 2005 mid-decade redraw and their 2010 redraw were both fairly moderate and relatively reasonable districts. The worst aspect of the current map is probably how GA11 grabs Buckhead rather than GA06 but I did the math and fixing this would actually make GA06 more red. IIRC it was more Nathan Deal just being mad at Price.  OTOH The Texas GOP ...

Here is the existing map with its gratuitous tri-chops and quad chop of Fulton. The chop into Gwinnett by the pink CD to force the Gwinnett CD to chop into Forsyth was cute. Who knew Forsyth of all places would start trending so hard to the Dems? Now even having the whole county in  one CD, is enough to anchor a Pub CD that has some hostile precincts without substantial help from other Pub zones. Sad! The Pubs just assumed those heavily white Pub precincts in the inner ring of Atlanta suburbs would not change that much. and just shaved them off from counties here and there that were otherwise hostile. Wrong!

[Torie]

Below is what I call  a cross chop, which in my world are particularly "sinful," unless driven by the VRA. This one I find particularly ugly, in part because to keep one of the CD's contiguous one needs to involve a third county through which to travel. Naughty!

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's the Georgia Republican Party. The notion that they would have a problem with dividing a county five ways to bolster their partisan prospects is obviously absurd.

It really isn't considering both their 2005 mid-decade redraw and their 2010 redraw were both fairly moderate and relatively reasonable districts. The worst aspect of the current map is probably how GA11 grabs Buckhead rather than GA06 but I did the math and fixing this would actually make GA06 more red. IIRC it was more Nathan Deal just being mad at Price.  OTOH The Texas GOP ...

Because Georgia was strongly Republican enough (and strongly polarised enough) at the time that they didn't need to do more than that - they just needed to undo the Democratic gerrymander, and then to tweak their map slightly to remove the few holdouts they didn't get the first time.

But their record on voting rights has been radical enough that it's abundantly clear they are willing to play hardball when they believe it gives them an advantage they require.

[lfromnj]

It's the Georgia Republican Party. The notion that they would have a problem with dividing a county five ways to bolster their partisan prospects is obviously absurd.

It really isn't considering both their 2005 mid-decade redraw and their 2010 redraw were both fairly moderate and relatively reasonable districts. The worst aspect of the current map is probably how GA11 grabs Buckhead rather than GA06 but I did the math and fixing this would actually make GA06 more red. IIRC it was more Nathan Deal just being mad at Price.  OTOH The Texas GOP ...

Because Georgia was strongly Republican enough (and strongly polarised enough) at the time that they didn't need to do more than that - they just needed to undo the Democratic gerrymander, and then to tweak their map slightly to remove the few holdouts they didn't get the first time.

But their record on voting rights has been radical enough that it's abundantly clear they are willing to play hardball when they believe it gives them an advantage they require.

Not really?

They even agreed originally to the AVR. Even now the bill that is being passed still has statewide leadership opposition.

[Badger]

It's the Georgia Republican Party. The notion that they would have a problem with dividing a county five ways to bolster their partisan prospects is obviously absurd.

It really isn't considering both their 2005 mid-decade redraw and their 2010 redraw were both fairly moderate and relatively reasonable districts. The worst aspect of the current map is probably how GA11 grabs Buckhead rather than GA06 but I did the math and fixing this would actually make GA06 more red. IIRC it was more Nathan Deal just being mad at Price.  OTOH The Texas GOP ...

The gop's willingness, both in Georgia and nationally, to gerrymander at all cost its grasp on powerq has increased DRAMATICALLY in the last 10 to 15 years

[VAR]

This seems relevant.

David Perdue went down to defeat in January because of the rural backlash against #elitist Republicans who didn’t want to give people $2000 checks. He decided not to challenge Warnock in 2022, but I think he’d be open to getting a Safe R House seat.

I’m thinking of a district that connects his black farmer base in Southwest Georgia to his college-educated suburban wine mom base around Atlanta. It’s actually not as hard as it sounds:



Stats:

56% Fulton/DeKalb wine moms
30% black farmers
14% other

Abrams 64%
Kemp 35%

Clinton 61%
Trump 36%

Perdue would have to carpetbag into this district, but that wouldn’t be a problem.

So, my point is Georgia Republicans could just draw a seat for Perdue instead of gerrymandering (this district is not a gerrymander because it’s compact in the sense that everyone in it respects David Perdue.) They should give him the bluest Atlanta suburbs so that they can draw a Trump +50 district to shore up weak candidate Kelly Loeffler, who’ll also get a House seat.

I think Perdue would win this seat by at least 20 points. Sure, it may become unwinnable for him in a century or so, but he won’t be alive by then.

Don’t leak this to the GA GOP, red avatars.

[lfromnj]

2020 Data up for GA.

Senate elections are the November one.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

2020 Data up for GA.

Senate elections are the November one.

epic

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

2020 Data up for GA.

Senate elections are the November one.

epic

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else working on State Senate maps?
(Reminder you can split precincts now)

[Adam Griffin]

Wanted to draw a map that was proportionate in partisan terms while also trying to adhere to VRA and minimize splits in smaller counties & excessive carving in larger ones. In the end, I ended up with a 7D-7R or 7D-6R-1 map - depending on your perspective - last night. Of course, with the presidential data now added, things change a bit (the swing district is a Kemp-Biden district).

In trying to minimize hacking and splicing while also avoiding the dreaded "hook" that often emerges from LaGrange and either ropes around Macon and to the south or keeps extending eastward, I definitely stretched black majority districts fairly thin in the metro (while of course ending up with 1 >60% BVAP district as the remainder).

I also despise how so few are willing to entertain a Savannah-Augusta district, so I always make sure to include it in any 7D-7R or 8D-6R proposal.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5a1ca72f-69e6-4466-9147-3473ecf6be60

[Nyvin]

No real reason to post this, just thought it looked nice







https://davesredistricting.org/join/664342a1-f3ad-4993-9fe2-3828ddb87e3a

Seems almost criminal not to give Cobb and Dekalb their own districts, they're pretty much perfect for them.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Anyone else working on State Senate maps?
(Reminder you can split precincts now)

The ability to splint precincts is so cool, but I noticed when I was doing some maps for fun that the President data isn’t accurate yet (atleast for South Carolina), and that it just assumed that every block voted the same as the precinct