Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Torie]

I decided to give an uninvited "lecture" on RRH, I thought perhaps, however delusional, some might be interested in reading if here. So below is my copy and paste of what I posted.

A poster the other day suggested that the Georgia “Pubmanderers” draw 4 black CD’s in the Atlanta area, and dismantle the rural black SW corner CD. I thought I would test that suggestion out. The Atlanta part of the equation works out quite well, and may even hold up for a whole decade – maybe. The second prong of the equation, the Pub snatch of the SW corner CD, however does not. It does not because although it can be drawn, its lines would be illegal, and tossed by the courts, and it is not a particularly close case in my opinion. Below explains the basis for my opinion.

The first step is how many CD’s need to be performing black, before the VRA no longer mandates additional minority performing CD’s. If it is only 4 CD’s, then the SW corner CD can be dismantled, and the plan fully executed. If it is 5 CD’s, then the VRA is still in play to police the CD lines. The answer turns out to be 5, not 4 CD. Blacks are about a third of the population of Georgia now. Thus, out of the 14 CD’s, under the VRA their allocatable share of the 14 CD’s is 14/3 or about 4.7 CD’s, which must be rounded up to 5 CD’s, if 5 “compact” CD’s can be drawn that are 50% BCVAP. In point of fact, they can (particularly when the racial percentages in Georgia are updated from the DRA figures which are circa 2015).  And yes, one of the 5 CD’s is the rural SW corner CD; like this, nice and compact:

https://i.imgur.com/uMuXm9O.png

So, the map the Pub gerrymanderers’ may want (the map to the right):

https://i.imgur.com/rHHHwCY.png

is illegal under the VRA.

And thus, they will need to draw the map to the right above, and even with that map, if the SW corner CD were not a performing black CD, its lines had better not be gerrymandered in any way, to wit, where there are reasonable choices of adjacent territory to take in, one always chooses the more black, and more Democratic territory, which is what I did. Trump 2016 still carried it by a couple of points, but Trump 2020 probably lost it by about the same margin. If still not performing, arguably one might need to chop in to Macon, or duplicate the lines that I drew (the first map that I linked above) that get the CD up to 50% BCVAP. Trump 2016 lost that iteration of the SW corner CD by 10.5% by the way.

I have seen a number of maps drawn on RRH that I think are very vulnerable to being struck down under the VRA. If one is going to gerrymander in a way that puts in play minority voters to their detriment, the VRA’s byzantine rules need to thoroughly mastered on a very granular level.

[Torie]

Yes, none of this is defensible on policy grounds. Anyway, here is the Pubmander that might hold up, with a most unfortunate extra chop into Gwinnett, because I think the CD I labeled 8 is the most likely to trend the most to the Dems over time since 8 is dominated by Gwinnett, as Gwinnett and the northern bit of Fulton will probably keep surging to the Dems (along with the northern bit of Cobb, which is why of course they all are parked in different Pub designed CD's). 2022 is the last picture show for the Pubs in Georgia. After that, the state will be lean Dem heading to safe, and by 2032, a new map will most likely be the reverse, 5 Pub seats, and 9 Dem ones. It may even be whittled down to 4.

Georgia aside (as a canary in the mine), the Pubs had better figure out how to keep moving on up with people of color, particularly Asians and Hispanics, or they will be out of business. I don't think urban  metro area higher SES whites are likely to come back to the Pubs, as opposed to  continuing their exodus, unless the Dems soak them with taxes, and I don't see that happening except at income levels that only hit the top 5%, if that. Right now the Dems are chatting more about the top 2% to hit. Those folks are rich enough to not care that much about taxes, at least at levels that are at European levels.

I modified the map to make the gerrymander as efficient as possible, while being careful to avoid the VRA quicksands, taking cognizance of where the strong Dem trends are most likely to manifest themselves going forward. It takes work to transfer the north Georgia Pub sink elsewhere, sometimes up to a 100 miles away, I must say. (And Athens is most inconveniently located - it needs to be moved north to the SE corner of the state ASAP.) But somebody has to do it!

[Torie]

Is the current GA-02 majority black?

Per the 2010 census numbers it was 52.3% black in population, and 49.5% BCVAP. The 2018 numbers are whited out as an option. The almost identical CD that I ended up drawing above was 50% black, and 47.1% BCVAP in 2010, and 51.3% black, and 49.5% BCVAP in 2018

[Torie]

Well I revised the map, for a good reason from the Pub perspective. Can anyone surmise what my concern was?

[Torie]

Gwinnett district wasn't safe enough, I'm guessing?

That was a minor concern, but now that minor concern has transferred to the yellow CD (and actually by virtue of that transfer of the vulnerability to the yellow CD become slightly more of a minor concern), so that is close to a wash but on the downside. Moreover,  that just short of a wash to the downside substantially increased erosity, so the changes in that quarter were a material net negative. So, while good thinking on your part, that was not what drove me to otherwise degrade the map when I moved the chess pieces around. There was something else out there that made me do it!  

[Torie]

Are you trying to get rid of MTG by forcing her to run in a district with an incumbent other than her? I'm... skeptical that would work.

I never gave that crazy women the slightest thought. Thanks for reminding me, not, about her. Why is Georgia such a hospitable place for crazy female Pub politicians? Although not in MTG's league by any means, the state also had the Stepford wife who was like Hal in that Sci Fi flick, as she kept mechanically in a disembodied monotone repeating the same lines in her Senate debate - radical extreme socialist, radical extreme socialist, radical extreme socialist ... zzzz.

[Torie]

Well, as a hint, here is a rather substantially revised map, because the revision above did not fully mitigate the risk. This map I think is the best one can do to minimize it, while keeping 9 quite safe Pub seats that should hold for the decade absent even more substantial plate tectonic shifts than occurred in the last decade.

[Torie]

The quad chop of Gwinnett is a collateral damage of my concern, but a seat could be drawn to very likely hold for the decade without the quad chop, as my previous maps did with a tri-chop. Heck, in theory even one chop would have been enough if the two pieces were relatively equal in population (in fact the share of Gwinnett for the Pub GA-8 (the purple CD) is about half of its population give or take), and that would be my first inclination if the chop were clean and avoided unpleasant municipal chops (you might notice that in the Atlanta area in particular I made a real effort to respect municipal lines, arising out of the same concern). I kept twisting the clock around Atlanta for a very specific reason, and, hint 2, it was driven by the characteristics of one and only one CD. There was something about it that raised a red flag for me that moved me to call RNC headquarters, and say, hey, I am worried about this, I think it has the potential to be like the corona virus is to the human body, particularly one like mine.

[Torie]

The quad chop of Gwinnett is a collateral damage of my concern, but a seat could be drawn to very likely hold for the decade without the quad chop, as my previous maps did with a tri-chop. Heck, in theory even one chop would have been enough if the two pieces were relatively equal in population (in fact the share of Gwinnett for the Pub GA-8 (the purple CD) is about half of its population give or take), and that would be my first inclination if the chop were clean and avoided unpleasant municipal chops (you might notice that in the Atlanta area in particular I made a real effort to respect municipal lines, arising out of the same concern). I kept twisting the clock around Atlanta for a very specific reason, and, hint 2, it was driven by the characteristics of one and only one CD. There was something about it that raised a red flag for me that moved me to call RNC headquarters, and say, hey, I am worried about this, I think it has the potential to be like the corona virus is to the human body, particularly one like mine.

In your original map, were you concerned about the rapidly growing black population in GA-10? Including Rockdale in a Republican district was a bold choice, and Newton and Spaulding are also changing quickly. Long-term, I think there's a real chance that Walton starts to trend hard to the Democrats as the black population grows as well; the only adjacent suburbs to it these days are majority black.

Oconee County isn't in exactly the same situation (it's an Athens suburb, not Atlanta, and there is unlikely to be a surge in the black population there any time soon), but it is definitely trending Democratic as well due to spillover from Athens.

All in all, I could see GA-10 on the previous map being a concern by 2030. Taking out Rockdale and Oconee definitely helps with the long-term risk.

You sir are almost there when you refer to Rockdale, Spaulding and Newton Counties.  (I was suspicious of Oconee for the reasons you stated, and that is why when I moved the chess pieces around the final time that I put it in the Cyan CD, but that is not what propelled my last set of changes.)   You are so so close, but alas still not there, as to what my energizer bunny was. In short, you did not guess the CD I was worried about, and why, even though you were in the zone as to counties involved in the drama.

Hint 3: Why in my penultimate set of changes did I remove Fayette from the lime green CD, which CD  was overall totally safe from the specter of an "invasion" of blacks and educated whites or Asians into Fayette eroding away its Pub pad to the point that it might slip into the twilight zone of a competitive CD? Heck, that was the only "useful "work" that lime green was doing; it was like 70%ville for the Pubs. In the final set of changes, lime, in lieu of the brown CD doing it, was instead given the larger task of "pacifying" northern Cobb from its expected invasion of "undesirables," so lime was still pulling its weight just fine (65% Trump 2016, which is just about the perfect % for dealing with the Cobb problem, with no excess Pub waste.

But now the most Pub place of all, the northwest Georgia corner and the brown CD, isn't doing any "useful" work at all! It's on welfare and a breeding ground for Pub crazies, that the Dems can run ads about nationwide. The damn place in my last map gave Trump 2016 80% of its vote, and it's basically illegal for blacks and educated whites to live there, so it will still be on the Pub team even if close to all of the other 434 CD's slip away.  Why on earth did I do that? Am I a Dem mole or something?

[Torie]

I apologize for my irritating people. I wanted to give whomever a chance to surmise what my concern was. Under the VRA, when you have a black pack issue, you had better be extra cautious that your map in that area cannot be characterized as gerrymandering the black pack CD's. So one draws CD's as if race (or partisan preferences) was not an issue. Fayette is part of the Atlanta metro ring, and the southern edge of the metro area CD's had better coincide reasonably with the metro edge, with no county chops that appear gratuitous. Thus, for example, carving out strong Pub precincts in the Southern counties was an absolute no-no from the get-go, and one can see in all three maps I avoided southern tier county chops. However, given the dangerously high black percentage of the green CD, that was not enough. So, I first added Rockdale County to the green CD, but still too high a black percentage. Therefore, as seen in draft 3,  I felt compelled to add Fayette County to the green CD, the missing county from the southern tier of metro Atlanta, which got the percentage down to a less dangerous percentage, leaving no southern edge metro counties behind, and the green CD nice and compact.

The fact that map draft 3 reduced the green CD's  chop into DeKalb to one much smaller in size, and the size of the chop of the blue CD in Gwinnett, demonstrated just how important it was to make the change, to reduce the VRA risk. However, map draft 3  in turn necessitated another chop into Gwinnett by a 4th CD (GA-10) to Pub up my GA-08, but gerrymandering white areas where black CD's are not in play, or otherwise gerrymandered, is far less of a risk under the VRA. And with all 4 black CD's, I also avoided municipal chops to the extent possible, where the precinct lines allowed me too.

Whether you agree with me or not is fine. But that was the issue as to which I wanted to share my thinking. I don't think the VRA is very well understood by many of those drawing maps, including parsing its ambiguities and how it may well evolve. That is understandable. It is  a very complex legal issue. So I thought I would make my little contribution to the public square, for better or worse.

[Torie]

Well I think I am done now. Gwinnett and Cobb each apparently have townships the precincts in which can be identified by the precinct name, so I adjusted the lines in Gwinnett and Cobb to hew to those (only one township chop in one place), and it actually makes the lines cleaner and more pleasing to my eye. The lines on the DRA map to which precinct lines do not hew are apparently villages or something.

Not much change in anything, except a bit to the better given the purpose of the map: both GA-04 and GA-01 drop a point in their black percentage, and GA-08 actually goes up a fraction of a point in Trump 2016's percentage. And I suspect in Gwinnett one of the biggest Dem trends in 2020 was in Berkshire township (a fair number of higher SES whites there maybe), so putting all of Berkshire in GA-01 may have increased the Trump 2020 percentage in GA-08 by close to a point from what it was.

[Torie]

The codicil. Assuming the 4 black performing CD's in the Atlanta metro are drawn the way one would draw them given the VRA, free of gerrymandering otherwise, and we get rid of the gerrymandering of the white CD's, below is what one might find. The Gwinnett based CD is gone for the Pubs out of the box, GA-05 is unlikely to hold for the decade, and GA-12 may also fall to the Dems before the decade is out. So the legal gerrymander for the Pubs, buys it one CD right away (and an outside chance of even 2 CD's), and one to two more over the course of the decade that might otherwise fall. So the Pubs might actually for the short term pick up a seat in a "fair map," on a relatively short term lease.

Yes, I know, some might not consider the map "fair." That is OK. And maybe it is not the best map that can be drawn. But I suspect most would consider it reasonable, at least in general perhaps, if not here.  

[Torie]

Here is my effort that avoids cover and pack penalties under the Muon2 rules, ignoring the VRA. It probably is compliant under the VRA however, given the 2020 election returns, and  when we get the racial data that will be used to assess VRA compliance. The Pubs will not be drawing this map! Btw, last night the DRA added the 2020 shape files, which changed the populations a bit in the lines that I had drawn for some reason, since it of course does not include the 2020 census population data. Another oddity is that the village and city lines on the map disappeared. I see that we did the exact same chop into Cobb. Great minds think alike.   I quite like my nested CD's, particularly on the north end of course, but the pink CD is well - butt ugly! It can probably be improved by playing with the lines between it and the SW corner CD up to a point without getting into VRA trouble.



Something like this perhaps:

[Torie]

Here's what I put together using the Atlanta UCC plan from earlier today. I stuck with whole counties, and brought the range down to 0.63%. Including the Atlanta UCC there are 6 county chops total which only 3 above the minimum required given the permissible range. There is one extra UCC
chops and no pack penalty.

The counties were grouped to minimize erosity by eye. I'd have to find an old erosity map of GA counties to see if there might be a grouping with lower erosity.

I didn't look at political data while drawing the plan, much like some independent commissions (eg. CA) might do. (I don't find averages including data before 2016 very indicative of current performance anyway). When they put up the 2020 PVI numbers I'll be more interested in drawing maps to better meet the political metrics of skew and polarization.

That is really a nice map in exchange for a cover penalty.

[Torie]

With cover and pack out of the way, and jettisoned where inconvenient, here is how I think I would actually draw the map if the decision were mine. I like where the cuts are and the communities of interest, and the shape of the districts, and the minority percentages.

[Torie]

And one more concept, channeling more of Muon2's map, where no county gets a tri-chop, and the pack "rules" are obeyed as to the Atlanta metro area. The map is a bit more equitable, since the Trump 2020 margin in the yellow CD is probably down to about 4 points, as compared to about 18 points for Trump 2016. So it should be on the cusp of a swing CD. It as drawn was at the epicenter of the Trump 2020 Georgia collapse (along with Cobb County, which will "never" be a competitive county again).



https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::02a89f02-d75d-4caf-9775-513c462e4298

Swing CD numbers (north Fulton, NW Gwinnett, and Forsyth) in “fair” map for Trump 2020:

[Torie]

Here is my attempt at a "bombproof" R gerrymander, that also isn't too egregious or ugly. I went for 9-5 while making sure all Dem districts are black districts (iirc that is what Republicans tend to prefer since a white Dem proves a bigger threat statewide right?)

Also made sure all R representatives have a district each, without putting 2 Republicans in the same seat. All Atlanta area seats are at worst Kemp+18; with the worst district overall being the Augusta centred 12th at Kemp+9, Trump+8, R+5 (so perhaps Republicans might want to shore that one up slightly even if it isn't trending much)



https://davesredistricting.org/join/92d11173-c6bc-4ef6-9405-2dd75d31f1d9

GA-01: Kemp+14, Trump+15, R+8
GA-02: Abrams+13, Clinton+11, D+5 (49% black CVAP)
GA-03: Kemp+33, Trump+33, R+19
GA-04: Abrams+59, Clinton+55, D+24 (53% black CVAP)
GA-05: Abrams+56, Clinton+54, D+24 (50% black CVAP)
GA-06: Abrams+44, Clinton+36, D+15 (52% black CVAP)
GA-07: Kemp+19, Trump+23, R+16
GA-08: Kemp+39, Trump+37, R+18
GA-09: Kemp+22, Trump+27, R+19
GA-10: Kemp+46, Trump+45, R+24
GA-11: Kemp+24, Trump+29, R+20
GA-12: Kemp+9, Trump+8, R+5
GA-13: Abrams+40, Clinton+32, D+14 (57% black CVAP)
GA-14: Kemp+42, Trump+45, R+25

I don't think your GA-07 is "bombproof" myself. Gwinnett has so many people, and is trending so hard and fast to the Dems (it moved 6.25% to the Dems in 2020 as compared to 2016, and  that's percentage points down in the Trump percentage - the margin changed by twice that or 13 points. Your GA-07 has 54% of your CD by votes in Gwinnett. Moreover, the slice of Gwinnett you have in your GA-07 probably trended more to the Dems than the county as a whole, given that it probably had a higher increase in the black percentage plus some higher SES whites - as an example, the crash in the Gwinnett formerly tilt Pub Garners township that is within your GA-07 slice of Gwinnett was one of shock and awe. So, I doubt your GA-07 will last the decade. But then, my GA-08 is not really "bombproof." So, the "solution," you guessed it, is a quin-chop of Gwinnett!   Desperate circumstances require desperate remedies.



https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::4dc63078-006e-43fb-bb71-36a2906f1484

Oh, here is what happened in your GA-07 in 2020, assuming your CD took in all of Jones County:



Trump's percentage in your slice of Gwinnett dropped 12 points from 2016, about twice his percentage drop for the county as a whole!

I decided to append the entire map for Georgia with the glorious Gwinnett quin-chop. That chop is really a thing of beauty. It's suitable for framing.

[Torie]

And if a quin chop of Gwinnett is a bit too much for the Pubs, where GA-05 and GA-08 were 58% and 59% Trump 2020, respectively (and who knows how long that will last), here is the cede Gwinnett map, where the Pubs have 8 "forever" safe seats, and the Dems have 6. Call this the lowest risk Pubmander.

[Torie]

It's the Georgia Republican Party. The notion that they would have a problem with dividing a county five ways to bolster their partisan prospects is obviously absurd.

It really isn't considering both their 2005 mid-decade redraw and their 2010 redraw were both fairly moderate and relatively reasonable districts. The worst aspect of the current map is probably how GA11 grabs Buckhead rather than GA06 but I did the math and fixing this would actually make GA06 more red. IIRC it was more Nathan Deal just being mad at Price.  OTOH The Texas GOP ...

Here is the existing map with its gratuitous tri-chops and quad chop of Fulton. The chop into Gwinnett by the pink CD to force the Gwinnett CD to chop into Forsyth was cute. Who knew Forsyth of all places would start trending so hard to the Dems? Now even having the whole county in  one CD, is enough to anchor a Pub CD that has some hostile precincts without substantial help from other Pub zones. Sad! The Pubs just assumed those heavily white Pub precincts in the inner ring of Atlanta suburbs would not change that much. and just shaved them off from counties here and there that were otherwise hostile. Wrong!

[Torie]

Below is what I call  a cross chop, which in my world are particularly "sinful," unless driven by the VRA. This one I find particularly ugly, in part because to keep one of the CD's contiguous one needs to involve a third county through which to travel. Naughty!

[Torie]

Here is my latest iteration of an aggressive but VRA compliant Georgia Pubmander using the 2019 population estimates, and the Trump 2020 numbers that are now in the DRA data base.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b78dd1ca-18c4-4e7c-aa2e-97bd2272a06a

[Torie]

Somebody on RRH decided it was time to cut the Dem CD quota in Georgia down to 4 CD’s.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c76a08aa-466a-44e8-a548-ccc2be568e93

I replied by linking the map below that has five 50%+ BCVAP districts all of which are compact enough to trigger Gingles in my view. So well, you guessed it, illegal! 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2ded45e3-4c87-49b6-b0ce-9ecad601db89

[Torie]

behold, a map where every district in GA voted for Joe Biden!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/03b115b8-9974-4d69-b67f-c2d276fb8288

How long did it take to thread that tiny needle?   

[Torie]

Very impressive that you can effect that so efficiently. I stand in awe of your talents.

[Torie]

Somebody on RRH decided it was time to cut the Dem CD quota in Georgia down to 4 CD’s.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c76a08aa-466a-44e8-a548-ccc2be568e93

I replied by linking the map below that has five 50%+ BCVAP districts all of which are compact enough to trigger Gingles in my view. So well, you guessed it, illegal!  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2ded45e3-4c87-49b6-b0ce-9ecad601db89

It is far from certain that a 5th VRA district would be mandated in SW GA, and I think there is a good chance it will continue to be uncertain even after census figures are released. Looking at your map, I see a number of potential issues.

The 2nd District on your map will be underpopulated by 15,000 in 2019, and likely will be underpopulated by 20,000 or more with 2020 census numbers. Even if you introduce a sixth county split, cherry-picking the most black heavy neighboring precincts to remedy this population imbalance would still push the BCVAP down to just about 50% BCVAP on the mark. If you don't introduce further splits, you are very likely going to end up underneath the 50% mark.

Another thing worth mentioning is that given longstanding turnout differences in that part of Georgia, Whites were either the majority or plurality of voters in your district for the 2014, 2016, and 2020 elections, even before you add more precincts to it (which you will have to).

I also wonder if the 11th Circuit or SCOTUS (with their recent Trump appointees) would view a district that needs to split 5 counties (three of which are quite small) by cherry-picking the whitest precincts to leave out as "compact". Maybe they would, maybe they wouldn't, but it seems very odd to assume that the GOP wouldn't at least try to find out given that the worst remedy that would happen is reversion back to 9-5.

My only comments are that I used the 2019 numbers that the DRA now has in its data base, and the county chops are small, and the VRA when it comes to the definition of compactness is not concerned with county or municipal lines, and the courts have had a pretty broad definition of what is "compact" beyond that for purposes of triggering Gingles. The downside for the Pubs is if they lose a case before SCOTUS on this issue after they lose the governorship in 2022 (if that happens). In such event the Courts will draw the lines, and that means a 7-7 map. So by reaching for a 9-4 map with VRA risk, they may end up with a 7-7 map rather than a 9-5 map. The risk-reward ratio of that for me simply does not pencil. YMMV.

Another problem is that the BCVAP numbers will be estimates, and it is uncertain what data base the courts will use. If the latest estimate before the map is passed, even if at the last minute, make clear that there is a very low risk any court will find that five 50%+ BCVAP seats can be drawn that it deems "compact," then the Georgia Pubs could dismantle the SW corner CD and snatch away a 5th black seat and take the political hit if they want to, without undue legal risk. I think that would be extremely short term thinking on their part;  unless they find a way to attract more black voters, and more  of the higher SES white voters in the Atlanta metro that have been abandoning them, their days as a competitive party in Georgia will be at an end, and sooner rather than later. As Virginia goes, so goes Geotgia.

That is how I seem the situation anyway, but one thing I am certain of, is that the Georgia Pubs could care less what I think. Ha!

Here is a "new and improved" revised map btw with only one excess county chop for what it is worth.