Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Pink Panther]

God I hate Marietta’s precincts

Worst precincts in the country under 2010 precinct lines.
Ok, second worst. Columbus OH takes the crown.

Reno is probably worse.

At least Reno's precinct's are contigous.

A decent amount of precincts aren't contiguous.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

God I hate Marietta’s precincts

Worst precincts in the country under 2010 precinct lines.
Ok, second worst. Columbus OH takes the crown.

Reno is probably worse.

At least Reno's precinct's are contigous.

A decent amount of precincts aren't contiguous.

Really? I seem to remember a ton of tiny, small precincts with no people being the main annoyance with Reno.

[bagelman]

Columbus is far worse than Marietta or Reno, both the latter 2 can easily be placed in the same district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Columbus is far worse than Marietta or Reno, both the latter 2 can easily be placed in the same district.

fair point.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Columbus is far worse than Marietta or Reno, both the latter 2 can easily be placed in the same district.

Oh god I forgot about Columbus, probably for a reason

[Pink Panther]

Columbus is far worse than Marietta or Reno, both the latter 2 can easily be placed in the same district.

I suppose that's a good point.

[Torie]

I just posted this on RRH, and I thought I would put it up here as well. Some folks just don't get it, it seems. Resistance is futile.

Here is your GA map with five 50%+ BCVAP CD’s. That in my opinion means pursuant to the Gingles decision that five “performing” black CD’s must be drawn. “Performing” does not mean that the CD must be 50% BCVAP. That test is just for the trigger, legally entitling blacks to 5 performing CD’s. In Georgia, what “performing” means is that where the vote patterns are racially polarized, that a majority of the voters in a Dem primary either need to be black, or blacks plus whites who are willing to vote for a black in both the Dem primary and the general election. I would very surprised (shocked is perhaps a better word here), if the GA GOP draws only 4 performing black CD’s, deciding to take its chances with SCOTUS, plus endure all the bad publicity, to try to gain one more seat.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/677c2f42-98af-4420-9470-bd529afc55d1

[lfromnj]

Georgia population decline in South Georgia does make the map much better in South Georgia which I generally define as the Fall Line + the full black belt rural counties and also any cities that lie directly in it or touch it such as Columbia or Muscogee county. Either way with 2010 pop estimates there isn't an ideal way to fit the map

Blue is what what should unequivocally put in 4 Southern Georgia CD's  . The other colors are also what I would call southern Georgia. However the issue is you can't place all of them inside South Georgia. One of them has to be split. Either some black belt rural counties or 3 Urban/suburban counties. The GOP's map chose Yellow as that has swingy Black belt counties so they could take out Barrow. Its  just one bad choice out of 5. However by 2017 estimates. Putting all 5 colors only overpopulates South Georgia by 30k instead of 150k.  By 2020 it should probably be even. Either way now 4 Southern GA CD's can be created quite neatly which is fairly interesting.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1393674489884467200

lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1393674489884467200

lol.

Looks certain that NW GA GOPers won't stand for the region being cracked for sake of a 9-5, that's for sure.

[Brittain33]

Looks certain that NW GA GOPers won't stand for the region being cracked for sake of a 9-5, that's for sure.

That's a good point, and MTG has a hell of a bullhorn to use to get her way if the legislature tries to much around with her district.

What does this limitation do to some of the maximum gerrymanders we saw? GA-11 and GA-9 can sustain a lot of dilution, but only so much.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks certain that NW GA GOPers won't stand for the region being cracked for sake of a 9-5, that's for sure.

That's a good point, and MTG has a hell of a bullhorn to use to get her way if the legislature tries to much around with her district.

What does this limitation do to some of the maximum gerrymanders we saw? GA-11 and GA-9 can sustain a lot of dilution, but only so much.

Primarily it stops at least most iterations of 9-5 from even being realistic, given how much most of them rely on Northern GA being cracked. However I refuse to believe that it's impossible for them to finesse it.

[Torie]

Looks certain that NW GA GOPers won't stand for the region being cracked for sake of a 9-5, that's for sure.

That's a good point, and MTG has a hell of a bullhorn to use to get her way if the legislature tries to much around with her district.

What does this limitation do to some of the maximum gerrymanders we saw? GA-11 and GA-9 can sustain a lot of dilution, but only so much.

Primarily it stops at least most iterations of 9-5 from even being realistic, given how much most of them rely on Northern GA being cracked. However I refuse to believe that it's impossible for them to finesse it.

The top map in the image below is the current GA-14, and the bottom map is a GA-14 drawn in one of my Pubmanders, that still is perfectly safe even for a Pub crazy like MTG herself (Trump 2020 carried it by 20 points). She will get over her butt hurt.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks certain that NW GA GOPers won't stand for the region being cracked for sake of a 9-5, that's for sure.

That's a good point, and MTG has a hell of a bullhorn to use to get her way if the legislature tries to much around with her district.

What does this limitation do to some of the maximum gerrymanders we saw? GA-11 and GA-9 can sustain a lot of dilution, but only so much.

Primarily it stops at least most iterations of 9-5 from even being realistic, given how much most of them rely on Northern GA being cracked. However I refuse to believe that it's impossible for them to finesse it.

The top map in the image below is the current GA-14, and the bottom map is a GA-14 drawn in one of my Pubmanders, that still is perfectly safe even for a Pub crazy like MTG herself (Trump 2020 carried it by 20 points). She will get over her butt hurt.

Two things.
One, I do not know what attitude GA-09 GOPers would have towards being placed in Atlanta metro-based districts, and so some kind of cracking of Northern Georgia might still be possible. I had completely forgotten about GA-09. D'oh.
Two, as Adam Griffin pointed upthread, NW GA has enough GOP legislators that they could sink a plan that cracks NW GA. So any GOPmander that does happen will have a substantially preserved GA-14.

[Torie]

Looks certain that NW GA GOPers won't stand for the region being cracked for sake of a 9-5, that's for sure.

That's a good point, and MTG has a hell of a bullhorn to use to get her way if the legislature tries to much around with her district.

What does this limitation do to some of the maximum gerrymanders we saw? GA-11 and GA-9 can sustain a lot of dilution, but only so much.

Primarily it stops at least most iterations of 9-5 from even being realistic, given how much most of them rely on Northern GA being cracked. However I refuse to believe that it's impossible for them to finesse it.

The top map in the image below is the current GA-14, and the bottom map is a GA-14 drawn in one of my Pubmanders, that still is perfectly safe even for a Pub crazy like MTG herself (Trump 2020 carried it by 20 points). She will get over her butt hurt.

Two things.
One, I do not know what attitude GA-09 GOPers would have towards being placed in Atlanta metro-based districts, and so some kind of cracking of Northern Georgia might still be possible. I had completely forgotten about GA-09. D'oh.
Two, as Adam Griffin pointed upthread, NW GA has enough GOP legislators that they could sink a plan that cracks NW GA. So any GOPmander that does happen will have a substantially preserved GA-14.

The current GA-09 already touches into the Atlantic metro area suburbs. In this Pubmander GA-09 is actually removed from those, and does its part in the Pubmander by taking in Athens instead. It is no accident that I labeled this version of a GA Pubmander a "least change" Pubmander.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks certain that NW GA GOPers won't stand for the region being cracked for sake of a 9-5, that's for sure.

That's a good point, and MTG has a hell of a bullhorn to use to get her way if the legislature tries to much around with her district.

What does this limitation do to some of the maximum gerrymanders we saw? GA-11 and GA-9 can sustain a lot of dilution, but only so much.

Primarily it stops at least most iterations of 9-5 from even being realistic, given how much most of them rely on Northern GA being cracked. However I refuse to believe that it's impossible for them to finesse it.

The top map in the image below is the current GA-14, and the bottom map is a GA-14 drawn in one of my Pubmanders, that still is perfectly safe even for a Pub crazy like MTG herself (Trump 2020 carried it by 20 points). She will get over her butt hurt.

Two things.
One, I do not know what attitude GA-09 GOPers would have towards being placed in Atlanta metro-based districts, and so some kind of cracking of Northern Georgia might still be possible. I had completely forgotten about GA-09. D'oh.
Two, as Adam Griffin pointed upthread, NW GA has enough GOP legislators that they could sink a plan that cracks NW GA. So any GOPmander that does happen will have a substantially preserved GA-14.

The current GA-09 already touches into the Atlantic metro area suburbs. In this Pubmander GA-09 is actually removed from those, and does its part in the Pubmander by taking in Athens instead. It is no accident that I labeled this version of a GA Pubmander a "least change" Pubmander.

Don't get me wrong - I think that map would perform quite well for Republicans. I just don't think NW GA GOPers would take one for the team and vote for a plan along these lines.
Point taken on GA-09 GOPers though - upwards movements of CDs is to be expected in this part of the state.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... if the North Georgia R congresspeople won't consent to having their districts drawn into Atlanta like reverse MD-06's, that has pretty major implications statewide. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My take on what a 9R-5D map might look like.
A new AA majority seat has been created in Metro Atlanta. The 4th and 6th pull out of DeKalb, making way for the 7th, which leaves Gwinett for the most part. The 4th pulling out of DeKalb forces it to make that population in Gwinett instead. The rest of Gwinett is placed in a redrawn 10th that is safe Republican. In the process, the districts of McBath and Bourdeax are profoundly altered. The 6th should flip back Republican, with it gaining all of Forsyth and Hall, and the 10th should be unwinnable for Bourdeax, with almost 300k living outside of Gwinett in blood-red counties and the Gwinett part of seat excluding the vast bulk of the most Biden-voting parts.
Under these lines the 11th is 60-39 Trump; the 6th is 58-40 Trump; and the 10th is 58-41 Trump. The 14th is exactly the same except now it has all of Pickens and part of Gilmer. The 8th now runs from the Rochdale county line to Florida.
In southern GA, the 2nd has been redrawn to become less Democratic while still majority black. The Biden margin has been reduced from 13 points to 8.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0016a8b3-68cb-4a24-bf23-c836863b358a

[Brittain33]

I think the Hall - Milton approach for a Republican district is an elegant solution from a statewide view, BUT what I remember from 2010 was that Hall County Republicans wanted their own district and got it with the new district created from reapportionment. I suspect they would prefer Hall to be the largest county in its own district, like it is now, rather than the smallest of 3 jurisdictions, which it would be with Forsyth and Milton.

Maybe I’m just wishcasting why an effective Pubmander won’t happen but that is my one go-to fact about Georgia’s 9th district.

[Skill and Chance]

I think the Hall - Milton approach for a Republican district is an elegant solution from a statewide view, BUT what I remember from 2010 was that Hall County Republicans wanted their own district and got it with the new district created from reapportionment. I suspect they would prefer Hall to be the largest county in its own district, like it is now, rather than the smallest of 3 jurisdictions, which it would be with Forsyth and Milton.

Maybe I’m just wishcasting why an effective Pubmander won’t happen but that is my one go-to fact about Georgia’s 9th district.

At the rate we are going a Dem could plausibly win Forsyth in 2030.  An optimal GOP map would bacon strip the mountains and not rely on it. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the Hall - Milton approach for a Republican district is an elegant solution from a statewide view, BUT what I remember from 2010 was that Hall County Republicans wanted their own district and got it with the new district created from reapportionment. I suspect they would prefer Hall to be the largest county in its own district, like it is now, rather than the smallest of 3 jurisdictions, which it would be with Forsyth and Milton.

Maybe I’m just wishcasting why an effective Pubmander won’t happen but that is my one go-to fact about Georgia’s 9th district.

At the rate we are going a Dem could plausibly win Forsyth in 2030.  An optimal GOP map would bacon strip the mountains and not rely on it.  

A gerrymander should not overweigh what things might look like at the end of the decade. For most of the decade, a Hall-Forsyth-Milton CD is completely unwinnable for Democrats, and that is what matters. So what if it might have a chance at flipping by 2030? That is 4 out of 5 cycles where the GOP has a guaranteed win seat.

[Skill and Chance]

I think the Hall - Milton approach for a Republican district is an elegant solution from a statewide view, BUT what I remember from 2010 was that Hall County Republicans wanted their own district and got it with the new district created from reapportionment. I suspect they would prefer Hall to be the largest county in its own district, like it is now, rather than the smallest of 3 jurisdictions, which it would be with Forsyth and Milton.

Maybe I’m just wishcasting why an effective Pubmander won’t happen but that is my one go-to fact about Georgia’s 9th district.

At the rate we are going a Dem could plausibly win Forsyth in 2030.  An optimal GOP map would bacon strip the mountains and not rely on it.  

A gerrymander should not overweigh what things might look like at the end of the decade. For most of the decade, a Hall-Forsyth-Milton CD is completely unwinnable for Democrats, and that is what matters. So what if it might have a chance at flipping by 2030? That is 4 out of 5 cycles where the GOP has a guaranteed win seat.

Well, the 2 big risks are a 2030 or 2026 GOP president midterm.  2026 is probably too soon for Forsyth but IDK. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the Hall - Milton approach for a Republican district is an elegant solution from a statewide view, BUT what I remember from 2010 was that Hall County Republicans wanted their own district and got it with the new district created from reapportionment. I suspect they would prefer Hall to be the largest county in its own district, like it is now, rather than the smallest of 3 jurisdictions, which it would be with Forsyth and Milton.

Maybe I’m just wishcasting why an effective Pubmander won’t happen but that is my one go-to fact about Georgia’s 9th district.

At the rate we are going a Dem could plausibly win Forsyth in 2030.  An optimal GOP map would bacon strip the mountains and not rely on it.  

A gerrymander should not overweigh what things might look like at the end of the decade. For most of the decade, a Hall-Forsyth-Milton CD is completely unwinnable for Democrats, and that is what matters. So what if it might have a chance at flipping by 2030? That is 4 out of 5 cycles where the GOP has a guaranteed win seat.

Well, the 2 big risks are a 2030 or 2026 GOP president midterm.  2026 is probably too soon for Forsyth but IDK.  

2026 looks too early. Sure, they are improving quite fast, but from a low base. Just in 2020, Dems only reached one-thirds the vote. Unlikely they reach 50% in 2026.
All this assumes that Ds are able to continue growing their coalition as fast when they are in office, which is also highly questionable.

[Spectator]

Republicans better enjoy it while it lasts, since there’s about no chance they control the trifecta come 2030

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

My take on what a 9R-5D map might look like.
A new AA majority seat has been created in Metro Atlanta. The 4th and 6th pull out of DeKalb, making way for the 7th, which leaves Gwinett for the most part. The 4th pulling out of DeKalb forces it to make that population in Gwinett instead. The rest of Gwinett is placed in a redrawn 10th that is safe Republican. In the process, the districts of McBath and Bourdeax are profoundly altered. The 6th should flip back Republican, with it gaining all of Forsyth and Hall, and the 10th should be unwinnable for Bourdeax, with almost 300k living outside of Gwinett in blood-red counties and the Gwinett part of seat excluding the vast bulk of the most Biden-voting parts.
Under these lines the 11th is 60-39 Trump; the 6th is 58-40 Trump; and the 10th is 58-41 Trump. The 14th is exactly the same except now it has all of Pickens and part of Gilmer. The 8th now runs from the Rochdale county line to Florida.
In southern GA, the 2nd has been redrawn to become less Democratic while still majority black. The Biden margin has been reduced from 13 points to 8.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0016a8b3-68cb-4a24-bf23-c836863b358a

I actually think McBath would likely beat David Scott if their districts are combined, even if most of it is his turf.  She’s a far stronger campaigner, Scott already almost got caught asleep at the wheel in 2020, and I could easily see national progressives leaping at the chance to invest money in knocking out Scott in the primary.