Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[S019]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b9b2fcb9-67e0-4b92-962f-3342adde1935

This map is illegal, your 4th is a 75% AA pack and the 5th is not AA enough, especially when you can get 3 60% AA seats, but honestly there is a good case for 4 50%+ AA seats, so in that case your Gwinnett seat should reoriented.

[Torie]

My Georgia 6 is black performing. In any event, the lines between it and Georgia 4 can be moved around, to make both 50%+ BCVAP and I am sure the Pubs would be happy to accommodate the Dems if that is what they want, but I tend to doubt that will be an issue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This map is illegal, your 4th is a 75% AA pack and the 5th is not AA enough, especially when you can get 3 60% AA seats, but honestly there is a good case for 4 50%+ AA seats, so in that case your Gwinnett seat should reoriented.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9fe0d1f1-32d0-451e-9461-a7c2b74444b9
Thoughts on this one?

[Torie]

I was unhappy including Rockdale County in a Pub designed CD. While that county is moving steadily to the Dems, it has not yet made a massive move to the Dems both in population and vote share.  However it is situated to potentially do so in the not so distant future due to demographic change, and my GA-10 already is covering some other bits of heavily Dem trending territory. So, I made some adjustments to move Rockdale out of GA-10 and into the Atlantic area Dem pack. I also moved some lines around to hew more faithfully to municipal lines. Thus I think the map has a certain sort of insane logic to it.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c36fecad-e799-4141-a9e4-2e7d8834cc7b

[S019]

My Georgia 6 is black performing. In any event, the lines between it and Georgia 4 can be moved around, to make both 50%+ BCVAP and I am sure the Pubs would be happy to accommodate the Dems if that is what they want, but I tend to doubt that will be an issue.

Given black growth in the Atlanta area, I think it's very likely that the number of black Atlanta seats gets bumped to 4, so your Gwinnett seat likely needs to be adjusted

This map is illegal, your 4th is a 75% AA pack and the 5th is not AA enough, especially when you can get 3 60% AA seats, but honestly there is a good case for 4 50%+ AA seats, so in that case your Gwinnett seat should reoriented.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9fe0d1f1-32d0-451e-9461-a7c2b74444b9
Thoughts on this one?

Looks fine, except I'd make the Gwinnett seat 50%+ AA for the reasons stated above, also that 11 went from Trump+25 in 2016 to Trump+16 in 2020, it's a time bomb waiting to happen, especially given it includes rapidly bluing North Fulton, I doubt Loudermilk allows this map for that reason.

[Torie]

Here is an even more drastic Pubmander that deploys more excess Pubs in my GA-09 into the fray, by its taking out a major bite of Gwinnett, and with GA-10 relieved of that chore, instead it is charged with taking in most of Athens (the most Dem precincts in Clarke County are convenient parked on its north border for GA-09 to bite them off to help GA-10 out a bit). It is kind of a game of musical chairs, as various Pub CD’s get their turn taking in marginal to semi hostile real estate that none of them wants. Pub primaries with their crazily diverse constituencies should be quite interesting, if something like this monster becomes law. Ha!



https://davesredistricting.org/join/271e317c-5eaf-4b6b-905b-93338b4ca23b

[Sol]

Here is an even more drastic Pubmander that deploys more excess Pubs in my GA-09 into the fray, by its taking out a major bite of Gwinnett, and with GA-10 relieved of that chore, instead it is charged with taking in most of Athens (the most Dem precincts in Clarke County are convenient parked on its north border for GA-09 to bite them off to help GA-10 out a bit). It is kind of a game of musical chairs, as various Pub CD’s get their turn taking in marginal to semi hostile real estate that none of them wants. Pub primaries with their crazily diverse constituencies should be quite interesting, if something like this monster becomes law. Ha!



https://davesredistricting.org/join/271e317c-5eaf-4b6b-905b-93338b4ca23b

It's trivially easy to make GA-06 and GA-05 majority Black!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is an even more drastic Pubmander that deploys more excess Pubs in my GA-09 into the fray, by its taking out a major bite of Gwinnett, and with GA-10 relieved of that chore, instead it is charged with taking in most of Athens (the most Dem precincts in Clarke County are convenient parked on its north border for GA-09 to bite them off to help GA-10 out a bit). It is kind of a game of musical chairs, as various Pub CD’s get their turn taking in marginal to semi hostile real estate that none of them wants. Pub primaries with their crazily diverse constituencies should be quite interesting, if something like this monster becomes law. Ha!



https://davesredistricting.org/join/271e317c-5eaf-4b6b-905b-93338b4ca23b

It's trivially easy to make GA-06 and GA-05 majority Black!

It doesn't really matter if GA-06 is majority-black, only if it is black-performing.

[Torie]

Sometimes, in an occasional act of supreme hubris, I think that only I and Muon2 really understand the VRA, with its attendant risks and ambiguities. Moving right along, anyone who looked at the election numbers, would know that the Dem electorate in both of the CD's in play, the Dem primary electorate is majority black, assuming that Gingles applies at all since there are a substantial number of whites in both CD who are both Democrats and perfectly willing to vote for a black Dem in a primary or otherwise who is somebody other than Cynthia McKinney. Heck, a black won in one of the subject  CD's that had a relatively small number of blacks in 2018. Check it out. In addition, the black percentages will be higher than the CVAP figures on the DRA since they are about 3 years out of date, due to the fact that the figures used are based on 5 year averages. Be happy! In other news, a black represents my CD, that is less than 5% black. Gingles ain't in play there either.  

[Adam Griffin]

I will say this: I would be very surprised if non-metro NWGA gets split. Just like in 2011 when a new district (GA-14) was added, the NWGAGOP delegation will organize, lobby and insist upon the region being kept together for regional representation purposes (and it has enough GOP legislative representation to pose a threat to reapportionment plans counter to that). Perhaps the only exception to this rule is trying to dislodge MTG, but even in that case, I doubt it. She'll just carpetbag to wherever she has to carpetbag like she did to run in the 14th (never forget: she's a Forsyth-Cobb creation!).

Given the current GA-14 has (more or less) kept up with population growth, something like this wouldn't surprise me:

[beesley]

Drawing NWGA in such a way as to get rid of MTG is no less gerrymandering than splitting up Nashville or Kansas City, in my view.

[Torie]

Drawing NWGA in such a way as to get rid of MTG is no less gerrymandering than splitting up Nashville or Kansas City, in my view.

LOL. MTG was the last thing on my mind. She won't be around that long anyway, and a gerrymander is designed to last. She is also peripatetic, although rumor has it she currently has an address in Rome. In any event, her district has not changed that much. It just slips in to Cobb to take in some marginal, and in this case not very Dem trending territory, exchanging some real estate with the more hard pressed Loudermilk, so he can grab Bartow, etc. Trump 2020 carried my GA-14 by 27 points. But I can appreciate why Democrats would think she is a national treasure who should be preserved in glass.

[beesley]

Drawing NWGA in such a way as to get rid of MTG is no less gerrymandering than splitting up Nashville or Kansas City, in my view.

LOL. MTG was the last thing on my mind. She won't be around that long anyway, and a gerrymander is designed to last. She is also peripatetic, although rumor has it she currently has an address in Rome. In any event, her district has not changed that much. It just slips in to Cobb to take in some marginal, and in this case not very Dem trending territory, exchanging some real estate with the more hard pressed Loudermilk, so he can grab Bartow, etc. Trump 2020 carried my GA-14 by 27 points. But I can appreciate why Democrats would think she is a national treasure who should be preserved in glass.

My point was aimed at the post above mine which explicitly mentioned MTG, rather than yours. Apologies for the confusion.

[Sol]

Sometimes, in an occasional act of supreme hubris, I think that only I and Muon2 really understand the VRA, with its attendant risks and ambiguities. Moving right along, anyone who looked at the election numbers, would know that the Dem electorate in both of the CD's in play, the Dem primary electorate is majority black, assuming that Gingles applies at all since there are a substantial number of whites in both CD who are both Democrats and perfectly willing to vote for a black Dem in a primary or otherwise who is somebody other than Cynthia McKinney. Heck, a black won in one of the subject  CD's that had a relatively small number of blacks in 2018. Check it out. In addition, the black percentages will be higher than the CVAP figures on the DRA since they are about 3 years out of date, due to the fact that the figures used are based on 5 year averages. Be happy! In other news, a black represents my CD, that is less than 5% black. Gingles ain't in play there either.  

The thing is is that making those districts majority Black has political benefits which aren't just "following the VRA."

If I'm the Georgia republicans and I'm drawing four Black-influence districts in Atlanta, making them majority Black is a good way to deflect from negative attention and avoid lawsuits, especially given the amount of controversy regarding Georgia elections lately. It doesn't really change the partisan outcome or even the lines really outside of the four ATL districts, but it does let you say that you're electorally empowering Black voters at a time when the GA GOP is under fire.

[Torie]

Here is a new and exciting Pubmander concept. The Pubs would be unseating in all probability the moderate Dem Sanford Bishop however, who lives in Columbus.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe2b61e6-3b55-45fc-a705-3b8f5f3cf958

As to the black BCVAP figures, no doubt the Pubs would defer to the Dems as to how they want to carve up the Dem vote sinks.

For example, below are some hideous lines driven solely by race - a racial gerrymander. Oh wait a minute!  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/42aaef29-d498-4c6a-b01b-e9b68cc917a6

[Coastal Elitist]

Here is a new and exciting Pubmander concept. The Pubs would be unseating in all probability the moderate Dem Sanford Bishop however, who lives in Columbus.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe2b61e6-3b55-45fc-a705-3b8f5f3cf958

As to the black BCVAP figures, no doubt the Pubs would defer to the Dems as to how they want to carve up the Dem vote sinks.

For example, below are some hideous lines driven solely by race - a racial gerrymander. Oh wait a minute!  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/42aaef29-d498-4c6a-b01b-e9b68cc917a6

Sanford Bishop is in Albany. Also you can make a map with 4 majority-black districts in Atlanta and then four fairly compact Southern districts centered around Albany, Macon, Augusta and Savannah that all voted for Trump by at least 11. Hard to believe that the 9-0 Georgia Supreme Court will reject this map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/11921747-10a1-40b6-998f-9bc166066cf4

[Torie]

Here is a new and exciting Pubmander concept. The Pubs would be unseating in all probability the moderate Dem Sanford Bishop however, who lives in Columbus.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe2b61e6-3b55-45fc-a705-3b8f5f3cf958

As to the black BCVAP figures, no doubt the Pubs would defer to the Dems as to how they want to carve up the Dem vote sinks.

For example, below are some hideous lines driven solely by race - a racial gerrymander. Oh wait a minute!  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/42aaef29-d498-4c6a-b01b-e9b68cc917a6

Sanford Bishop is in Albany. Also you can make a map with 4 majority-black districts in Atlanta and then four fairly compact Southern districts centered around Albany, Macon, Augusta and Savannah that all voted for Trump by at least 11. Hard to believe that the 9-0 Georgia Supreme Court will reject this map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/11921747-10a1-40b6-998f-9bc166066cf4

The problem legally will be with SCOTUS and the VRA, since you can draw 5 reasonably compact 50%+ BCVAP districts, triggering a "quota" of 5 performing black CD's under Gingles.

I would take that case for free just to be able to argue a case before SCOTUS. I think I would probably win. Ha!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A SW GA black interest CD is mandatory. A map without a Biden seat in that part of the state is illegal.

[Torie]

A SW GA black interest CD is mandatory. A map without a Biden seat in that part of the state is illegal.

Well you can probably replace it with a black performing CD elsewhere (as long as the total is 5), particularly if the territory substantially overlaps in population. It is not the LULAC case, because the voting is racially polarized in this part of Georgia all over the place. It is not Savannah, or the higher SES precincts north of downtown Atlanta. That said, the "new and exciting" version of the Pubmander really sucks, even if legal.

[Coastal Elitist]

Here is a new and exciting Pubmander concept. The Pubs would be unseating in all probability the moderate Dem Sanford Bishop however, who lives in Columbus.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe2b61e6-3b55-45fc-a705-3b8f5f3cf958

As to the black BCVAP figures, no doubt the Pubs would defer to the Dems as to how they want to carve up the Dem vote sinks.

For example, below are some hideous lines driven solely by race - a racial gerrymander. Oh wait a minute!  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/42aaef29-d498-4c6a-b01b-e9b68cc917a6

Sanford Bishop is in Albany. Also you can make a map with 4 majority-black districts in Atlanta and then four fairly compact Southern districts centered around Albany, Macon, Augusta and Savannah that all voted for Trump by at least 11. Hard to believe that the 9-0 Georgia Supreme Court will reject this map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/11921747-10a1-40b6-998f-9bc166066cf4

The problem legally will be with SCOTUS and the VRA, since you can draw 5 reasonably compact 50%+ BCVAP districts, triggering a "quota" of 5 performing black CD's under Gingles.

I would take that case for free just to be able to argue a case before SCOTUS. I think I would probably win. Ha!

I mean we've seen how partisan the courts have been recently especially with Pennyslvania's making up election law and other Democratic-controlled courts doing similar things so I doubt it but we'll see. You can easily make the argument that the current one isn't compact and with population change in the area it might not be possible anymore.

[Torie]

Here is a new and exciting Pubmander concept. The Pubs would be unseating in all probability the moderate Dem Sanford Bishop however, who lives in Columbus.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe2b61e6-3b55-45fc-a705-3b8f5f3cf958

As to the black BCVAP figures, no doubt the Pubs would defer to the Dems as to how they want to carve up the Dem vote sinks.

For example, below are some hideous lines driven solely by race - a racial gerrymander. Oh wait a minute!  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/42aaef29-d498-4c6a-b01b-e9b68cc917a6

Sanford Bishop is in Albany. Also you can make a map with 4 majority-black districts in Atlanta and then four fairly compact Southern districts centered around Albany, Macon, Augusta and Savannah that all voted for Trump by at least 11. Hard to believe that the 9-0 Georgia Supreme Court will reject this map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/11921747-10a1-40b6-998f-9bc166066cf4

The problem legally will be with SCOTUS and the VRA, since you can draw 5 reasonably compact 50%+ BCVAP districts, triggering a "quota" of 5 performing black CD's under Gingles.

I would take that case for free just to be able to argue a case before SCOTUS. I think I would probably win. Ha!

I mean we've seen how partisan the courts have been recently especially with Pennyslvania's making up election law and other Democratic-controlled courts doing similar things so I doubt it but we'll see. You can easily make the argument that the current one isn't compact and with population change in the area it might not be possible anymore.

Well at the moment it certainly is possible. So absent a "bleaching" out of SW Georgia within these lines (and Macon in particular), that will remain the case.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

God I hate Marietta’s precincts

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

God I hate Marietta’s precincts

Worst precincts in the country under 2010 precinct lines.
Ok, second worst. Columbus OH takes the crown.

[Pink Panther]

God I hate Marietta’s precincts

Worst precincts in the country under 2010 precinct lines.
Ok, second worst. Columbus OH takes the crown.

Reno is probably worse.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

God I hate Marietta’s precincts

Worst precincts in the country under 2010 precinct lines.
Ok, second worst. Columbus OH takes the crown.

Reno is probably worse.

At least Reno's precinct's are contigous.