Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think that the GOP goes for a 9-5, with these 5 seats being hyperpacked.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It was created as a D vote sink by the legislature, not court order, and it is not majority black.  But in the case a court interprets the vra to require a 4th aa seat in Georgia, a 4th aa district in Atlanta would satisfy that.  A 10-4 map is doable, as long as all 4 d seats are in Atlanta.  pack all of the bluest precincts into 4 districts, then crack any blue/purple areas left. 

Respectfully, you are incredibly misinformed about the Voting Rights Act. The stated intent behind its creation is irrelevant, whether it was created by the legislature or the judiciary is irrelevant, and whether the district itself is majority black is irrelevant (although, for the record, it is absolutely majority black). What matters is that it passes all three elements of the Gingles test. That alone makes it a protected minority district and therefore its elimination would be an unconstitutional retrogression of minority representation

In addition, there's literally no example anywhere in VRA case law that works the way you're describing. Minority districts aren't suddenly required just because of the minority population of the entire state is above some arbitrary threshold (if it did, for example, Louisiana would absolutely warrant a second black-majority district) and you can't just remove a minority district from one portion of a state and add one to another part of the state if the minority group in the former area still passes the Gingles test. It's not about the racial breakdown of the state as a whole, it's about specific communities of specific minority groups. The most obvious example here is Miller v. Johnson, which directly and explicitly says that for the purposes of the Voting Rights Act, black people in Atlanta aren't members of the same minority community as blacks downstate (in the case itself, Augusta + Savannah). They're different communities of interest, so you can't remove a district from one and give it to the other if the group you're taking the district from still warrants its own district

While much of this is inarguably true, there remains the fact the GOP could break apart GA-02, at least if Adam Griffin's word is anything to come by. He's told me previously that GA-02 was created mainly to prevent a Democrat from getting elected in Southern Georgia, and packing D voters in the region was a good way of limiting their potential.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bishop's seat isn't vra protected, but a 4th aa district should be drawn in atl to preempt any challenges.

1. where is this idea coming from that the 2nd District isn't protected by the VRA? Because it absolutely is.

2. That is not at all how the Voting Rights Act works, for so many different reasons

It was created as a D vote sink by the legislature, not court order, and it is not majority black.  But in the case a court interprets the vra to require a 4th aa seat in Georgia, a 4th aa district in Atlanta would satisfy that.  A 10-4 map is doable, as long as all 4 d seats are in Atlanta.  pack all of the bluest precincts into 4 districts, then crack any blue/purple areas left. 

So, leaving aside whether or not this would be VRA compatible, remember this map is supposed to hold until 2030. Is the GA GOP really reckless enough to assume that this map you're proposing will hold? It'd involve a lot of cracking of the ATL suburbs just so that whatever can't be fed into the D districts are split up, but those suburbs are growing at lightspeed.

this map holds until 2030: https://davesredistricting.org/join/27ac753b-33e0-40f1-8acc-6fb947deb3ee
if they wanna be even more careful, they could do this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/781485f1-efa6-4aad-b355-2976a15a9f3b
but a 10-4 is very possible, if done carefully.  we're talking precinct-by-precinct precision and no regard for anything other than partisanship.  It's ugly, but very doable.

I've already explained why these maps wouldn't be constitutional but I want to compliment you here because these are very skillfully drawn maps! Would you happen to have the 2016 results for these districts?

my reading of that map is that its a defacto 9-5, with the 10th flipping in all certainty (tons of McCain-Clinton territory). However the GOP would find it really hard to lose any other seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyway, now that 2018 population figures are in DRA, this is what I would consider a "fair" 6-8 GA map. Dens have the 3 black ATL seats, the Gwinnett seat, the VRA SW GA seat, and the white liberal north Fulton seat.

Nice map! A few nitpicks:

-Why not put all of Cherokee County in the Cyan district? Better to keep the Atlanta area together.
-Is it possible to avoid the tri-chop of Atlanta?
-If you give the eastern half of Spaulding to the teal district, and then send the grey district deeper into Columbia County, it better follows metro areas and communities.

For what its worth I think the first suggestion is splendid, as is the third.
The second however would be hard to do, without severely messing up the map elsewhere.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah, more or less. There is still enough strength left in the Black Belt for this decade for both 2 and 12 to be held by Democrats, but at least one will flip red before 2030. When I try to draw maps, I like to create a baseline of safe seats, and then have a few competitive districts so as to maximize potential pathways to a delegation majority. Under this map, there are 5 D-heavy seats (4, 5, 6, 7, and 13), 6 R-heavy seats (1, 3, 8, 9, 11, 14), and 3 tossup seats (2, 10, 12). I think this accounts for the baseline partisan lean of the state (5 vs 6) and creates opportunities to harness trends both leftward (7, 10) and rightward (2, 12).

I'd like to compliment you on the sheer amount of thought you put into this. Good work.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Has anyone tried state legislative maps based off of the 2018 population data?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71a9a4dc-bc35-45b2-92b7-a688debd827b
I made a State Senate map based off of the 2018 estimates.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71a9a4dc-bc35-45b2-92b7-a688debd827b
I made a State Senate map based off of the 2018 estimates.

How many districts migrate to the Atlanta area from the rest of the state?

Defining the metro as the Atlanta county cluster as delineated in the stickied thread in this very same subforum, I would say they have 26 currently and under my map they have...29.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a8ade60b-e6b9-4ef8-b92c-a9669009951e
GA state house map
there are 77 Clinton districts out of 180.
I tried to avoid crossing county lines when possible.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cdacd24e-de7a-4262-a19f-d765fd2aac8c
This is a D gerrymander and is designed as such. It'd likely be a firm 9D-5R map for the decade, with the sole exception of GA-02, which could probably be swingy later on in the decade.

1: R+19, 69-30 Kemp, 68-30 Trump
2: D+3, 54-46 Abrams, 53-45 Clinton
3: D+5, 58-42 Abrams, 55-43 Clinton
4: D+9, 65-34 Abrams, 60-37 Clinton
5: D+13, 66-34 Abrams, 63-35 Clinton
6: D+4, 63-36 Abrams, 58-37 Clinton
7: R+3, 56-43 Abrams, 51-44 Clinton
8: R+14, 64-36 Kemp, 63-35 Trump
9: R+29, 76-23 Kemp, 75-22 Trump
10: D+6, 59-40 Abrams, 56-42 Clinton
11: R+30, 75-24 Kemp, 75-21 Trump
12: D+7, 59-40 Abrams, 57-40 Clinton
13: D+1, 59-40 Abrams, 53-43 Clinton
14: R+26, 74-25 Kemp, 74-23 Trump

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71a9a4dc-bc35-45b2-92b7-a688debd827b
I made a State Senate map based off of the 2018 estimates.

Why Split Savanah like that?
Seems like a D gerrymander by taking the blackest parts of Savanah to create 2 SafeD D districts there. The second district should probably be closer to a swing district.

I would defend this on basis of the fact that this is the stats the map generates:

Metric Description
Seats bias 2.52% Half the difference in seats at 50% vote share
Votes bias 1.71% The excess votes required for half the seats
Declination 5.06° A geometric measure of packing & cracking
Global symmetry 2.74% The overall symmetry of the seats-votes curve
Gamma 1.78% The fair difference in seats at the statewide vote share
Efficiency gap 0.38% The relative two-party difference in wasted votes
Partisan bias 2.34% The difference in seats between the statewide vote share and the symmetrical counterfactual share
Proportional 4.16% The simple deviation from proportionality using fractional seat shares
Mean–median 1.54% The average vote share across all districts minus the median vote share
Turnout bias 0.01% The difference between the statewide vote share and the average district share
Lopsided outcomes -2.21% The relative two-party difference in excess vote shares

By convention, positive values of bias metrics favor Republicans & negative values favor Democrats. So this means that it only makes the map more fair. All but one metric here, out of 12, are in the GOP's favor. This would be even more true if Savannah was drawn differently.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So the map overall is a D gerrymander ?



What do you do in a state like Wisconsin when you draw the maps based with numbers similar to 2012 for 2010 redistricting and then Clinton comes in and loses all the swingish fair districts in the rural area by an absurd number? Do you redistrict the map because now its unfair?

Wisconsin is a lot less inelastic than Georgia.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So the map overall is a D gerrymander ?



What do you do in a state like Wisconsin when you draw the maps based with numbers similar to 2012 for 2010 redistricting and then Clinton comes in and loses all the swingish fair districts in the rural area by an absurd number? Do you redistrict the map because now its unfair?

Wisconsin is a lot less inelastic than Georgia.

Sure in certain areas  but the point still stands,  a map can all of a sudden become unfair, should that require redistricting if that happens?

Not generally, no.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For clarity - I took your question to mean "should we do mid-decade redrawing of state leg maps" and that seems undesirable to me broadly speaking. Taking into account bias metrics though in determining little things like how you draw Savannah is much more defensible. I personally reject the "D gerrymander" label, particularly since you are applying it to the entire map. You can't judge an entire map on one or two decisions made in county x or county y unless it's a common pattern that is repeated preferably many times.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fair 7D-6R-1C GA map:


ATL Inset:

Good map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is a fairly reliable 8-7 GA map I made based on the 2018 Governor numbers.



There are 4 minority majority districts. 5 (69.2%), 7 (63.2%), 10 (59.2%), and 2 (51.6%).

• District 1 - Abrams 11.2
• District 2 - Abrams 8.1
• District 3 - Kemp 38.6
• District 4 - Kemp 30.6
• District 5 - Abrams 51.6
• District 6 - Abrams 10
• District 7 - Abrams 70.8 (Most of the city of Atlanta)
• District 8 - Abrams 11.3
• District 9 - Abrams 12
• District 10 - Abrams 37.9
• District 11 - Kemp 33.4
• District 12 - Kemp 53
• District 13 - Kemp 41
• District 14 - Kemp 53.3

This is a pretty good fair map. Not completely agreeable in everything but quite good in reflecting the statewide composition while also keeping things clean and compact and respecting county lines.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is a fairly reliable 8-7 GA map I made based on the 2018 Governor numbers.



There are 4 minority majority districts. 5 (69.2%), 7 (63.2%), 10 (59.2%), and 2 (51.6%).

• District 1 - Abrams 11.2
• District 2 - Abrams 8.1
• District 3 - Kemp 38.6
• District 4 - Kemp 30.6
• District 5 - Abrams 51.6
• District 6 - Abrams 10
• District 7 - Abrams 70.8 (Most of the city of Atlanta)
• District 8 - Abrams 11.3
• District 9 - Abrams 12
• District 10 - Abrams 37.9
• District 11 - Kemp 33.4
• District 12 - Kemp 53
• District 13 - Kemp 41
• District 14 - Kemp 53.3

This is a pretty good fair map. Not completely agreeable in everything but quite good in reflecting the statewide composition while also keeping things clean and compact and respecting county lines.

Tbh I wasn’t trying to make a fair map, but rather a sensible dem gerrymander. How could it be improved?

I think the border between 1 and 4 could be straightened. 13 and 14 could also be changed, but I have doubts that it could be improved very much, and I kind of feel this is the most compact realistic arrangement. I haven't much to complain about the shapes of 10, 11, and 13.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is a fairly reliable 8-7 GA map I made based on the 2018 Governor numbers.



There are 4 minority majority districts. 5 (69.2%), 7 (63.2%), 10 (59.2%), and 2 (51.6%).

• District 1 - Abrams 11.2
• District 2 - Abrams 8.1
• District 3 - Kemp 38.6
• District 4 - Kemp 30.6
• District 5 - Abrams 51.6
• District 6 - Abrams 10
• District 7 - Abrams 70.8 (Most of the city of Atlanta)
• District 8 - Abrams 11.3
• District 9 - Abrams 12
• District 10 - Abrams 37.9
• District 11 - Kemp 33.4
• District 12 - Kemp 53
• District 13 - Kemp 41
• District 14 - Kemp 53.3

This is a pretty good fair map. Not completely agreeable in everything but quite good in reflecting the statewide composition while also keeping things clean and compact and respecting county lines.

Tbh I wasn’t trying to make a fair map, but rather a sensible dem gerrymander. How could it be improved?

I think the border between 1 and 4 could be straightened. 13 and 14 could also be changed, but I have doubts that it could be improved very much, and I kind of feel this is the most compact realistic arrangement. I haven't much to complain about the shapes of 10, 11, and 13.

The 1st only contains 1 county split. You can actually make it have 0 county splits but that makes it a lot less compact and the county added on only has two roads connecting it with the rest of the district. 11th is interesting as it contains Athens and Gainesville and a lot of the far edge suburbs of Georgia that if the metro keeps growing it likely will be a swing district by the end of the decade

Oh I don't doubt that the 1st splits barely any counties. I just thought that adding Statesboro and giving up part of the Black Belt would just help with aestetics.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At the core of this map is four seats wholly within Fulton, Dekalb, Cobb, and Gwinnett. The southern part of Fulton couldn't be paired with Clayton as that would pack black voters, so instead the 5th is drawn into rural and exurban areas west, and the Clayton CD has to take in the rest of the rurals south of Coweta. 4, 5, 13, and 2 are all black seats; 7 is a coalition district with no clear majority or plurality for any group. 6 and 11 are majority-white but could elect a minority fairly easily. The 14th is a whole-county CD with a very neat shape. There are 7 Abrams districts and 7 Kemp districts. The 8th is the most competitive on 2018 governor numbers, and is even only 51% white and 42% black, but it also went to Kemp by 8 and is clearly Rep leaning, with a PVI of R+4. The 1st and 3rd sport a nice, clean mutual river boundaries. All 4 districts in Southern GA are whole-county.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/ca120f96-babc-44e7-8392-b7543d1d9019

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

Especially a fair (proportional) map might well separate them. And CoI-wise, a district anchored in the rurals directly east of Metro Atlanta is better off with Columbia than with areas directly south not within other districts.
Pairing Richmond with the Black Belt or Savannah is a fine concept even from merely a CoI perspective.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

Especially a fair (proportional) map might well separate them. And CoI-wise, a district anchored in the rurals directly east of Metro Atlanta is better off with Columbia than with areas directly south not within other districts.
Pairing Richmond with the Black Belt or Savannah is a fine concept even from merely a CoI perspective.

No its not, Savanah is a clear Coastal region COI that fits perfectly.

Well, I suppose a map only considering strict, non-race-related CoI only would very probably pair Savannah with the coast, but other things can impact a CoI map. Savannah+Augusta creates at least a minority influence district, while Savannah+coast is too white to count as one.
A CoI map in GA completely disregarding race, of all things, sounds questionable if you ask me.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a second fair map. And a similar map to the one I just made, in regards to overall principles. This time the north of Fulton is removed, not the south of it, with a lot of ripple effects. 6 is a leftover district taking in the rest of the 4 major metro counties. 5, 4, 13, and 2 are all black districts. I left Lee County out of GA-02. 12 has a "tail" which I don't like but I live with in order to have more whole-county CDs. Again, 7 Kemp and 7 Abrams districts. GA-06 went to Kemp by 16 so should be R for most of the decade, while GA-01 and GA-02 both sport Abrams 18 margins in high single digits and should be both Dem.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e3622dd1-543e-4685-9ed4-3ea4be162db3

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

I would argue they’re not at all a community of interest. The suburbs of Augusta and the city of Augusta are entirely different in politics, income, and racial identity. Augusta finds better with the black belt and Savannah, while the suburbs are closer to places like Gainesville

Do you like the 10th and 1st on the second map?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

I would argue they’re not at all a community of interest. The suburbs of Augusta and the city of Augusta are entirely different in politics, income, and racial identity. Augusta finds better with the black belt and Savannah, while the suburbs are closer to places like Gainesville

Do you like the 10th and 1st on the second map?

Yea it looks pretty good. Personally I like having Huntsville with Savannah, but then you can’t have Statesboro. So it comes down to personal choice.

Thoughts on the 8th in my first map?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If you want a Savannah to Augusta district because you care about proportionality, why not draw an Athens to Augusta instead? More defensible on CoI.

Athens to Augusta doesn't work as well because there are a ton of R-leaning counties you have to take in if you add Augusta's suburbs*+suburban Augusta is already about 1/3 larger than Athens and more Republican/roughly as Republican than Athens is Democratic. Lots of heavily white counties and lots of heavily R areas that undermine both proportionality and undermine minority influence. And Athens is also quite white liberal, which further harms minority influence, just not as much as having white Rs.
*=and if you take only the minimum, then you give the 9th a nasty, non-compact tail

I just don't think keeping Augusta in with its suburbs is generally a worthy choice given how it harms all the other districts.