Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Former President tack50]

Ok, here's a map I've created that has only 3 Dem districts (the 3 majority black districts near Atlanta). It's an 11-3 map and only one of the R districts should be vulnerable at all. Yes the districts are somewhat ugly but it's not like they are complete abominations.

Granted it's done with 2010 numbers as I don't know how to do maps with 2019 numbers, especially not while having also the 2016 election results but still, considering it's an 11-3 map the GOP should be able to give Dems a 4th district somewhere in order to save their 10 others in this map



Election numbers:

1: Trump+16
2: Trump+20
3: Trump+8
4: Clinton+74 (52% black VAP)
5: Clinton+58 (52% black VAP)
6: Trump+24
7: Trump+18
8: Trump+21
9: Trump+17
10: Trump+22
11: Trump+19
12: Trump+20
13: Clinton+36 (51% black VAP)
14: Trump+59

The only vulnerable district would be district 3, but even that one would only fall in a wave, and I don't think it's trending D either? (it's nowhere near Atlanta after all)

I imagine this map would have held for the entirety of the 2010-2020 decade?

[Former President tack50]

Since some mentioned GA-02 (if kept with a similar composition) being a swing district by the end of the decade despite being a VRA plurality/majority black district, I now wonder if something similar has ever happened.

Has a white Republican (with ~10% black support presumably) ever won a VRA black district? GA-02 seems like it would be extremely inelastic and titanium D despite the low margins

[Former President tack50]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

So now the question is:

1: Can GA-02 be dismantled? Can it be brought to Atlanta or other black areas of the state?
2: How many black majority districts are needed in the Atlanta area?

Once you answer those 2 questions you can start drawing. The VRA essencially means Georgia will have a court designed map in practice as 11-3 is impossible.

[Former President tack50]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

So now the question is:

1: Can GA-02 be dismantled? Can it be brought to Atlanta or other black areas of the state?
2: How many black majority districts are needed in the Atlanta area?

Once you answer those 2 questions you can start drawing. The VRA essentially means Georgia will have a court designed map in practice as 11-3 is impossible.

You can very easily draw 2 white dem seats in Atlanta, it's just that there's literally no reason the GOP would possibly draw them.

Wouldn't such districts be illegal as they would require packing the black voters?

Like if you have a white Dem district in Atlanta that means the remaining black seats will have to be 60%+ black; which would be struck down by courts?

So I guess while easily possible, not only has the GOP no reason to draw them but also they would be struck down anyways

[Former President tack50]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff94e92e-dccf-4c8f-a4da-d883ec0e9b2f

Here's a map of five Safe/Likely D seats all based in Atlanta that include 3 VRA Black districts, a majority-White Dem district (59% Obama, 61% White), and a Maj-Min district based in Gwinnett.

COI's not very intact though.

I guess that would be how a fair map would look like? (Plus GA-02 outside Atlanta in terms of Dem seats)

[Former President tack50]

Ok, here is a map that I came up with that can basically be summed up as "How agressive can Republicans get?"

This map starts from the following 2 assumptions:

-1: You still only need 3 VRA districts in the Atlanta area
-2: The black rural southwest district can be cut

Granted I think these assumptions, in particular number 2; are very unlikely, and probably wouldn't happen with a map like this because GA-02 is cut by clearly gerrymandering with ugly districts; and a similar thing, but to a lesser extent happens in the Atlanta area I believe, though the cuts there are probably easier to justify.

Still, it proves to me that the map the Republicans will actually draw is probably going to be 9-5 at best for Dems; possibly even 10-4.



CD-1: Clinton+21; D+8; 53% black
CD-2: Clinton+59; D+27; 52% black
CD-3: Clinton+63; D+28; 52% black
CD-4: Trump+17; R+10
CD-5: Trump+19; R+12
CD-6: Trump+18; R+14
CD-7: Trump+18; R+15
CD-8: Trump+59; R+31
CD-9: Trump+19; R+14
CD-10: Trump+16; R+9
CD-11: Trump+13; R+7
CD-12: Trump+14; R+7
CD-13: Trump+15; R+8
CD-14: Trump+11; R+6

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9163601d-d5b7-47b8-a5bd-4a4261040e26

[Former President tack50]

Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.

That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is almost fair, although it really should have 2 Likely Dem and 4 Safe Dem seats in Metro Atlanta under a truly fair map Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.

FIFY

Yeah..most of these maps are just D gerrymanders here. A "fair" GA map would likely have 3 heavily packed (Due to political geography) AA districts, a Cobb County district that votes D, and a Gwinnett County district that votes D, counterbalanced by a much closer (Clinton +2 or so) GA-02. There's absolutely no way you can call a 6 D ATL map fair.

Georgia is essencially a Lean R state, how is a 6-8 map not fair?

[Former President tack50]

Political geography and the self packing of GA Dems in the Atlanta metro means that a fair map would have 5 D seats in the ATL area (3 ATL, 2 suburbs) and 1 marginal Trump seat that could go either way in South Georgia. 5-1-8.

After drawing a map myself, while I still defend 6-8 would be perfectly fair; my fair map (even if certainly somewhat flawed) ended up as 5-7-2; functionally equivalent to 6-8 (although with trends you could argue it is 6-7-1 so it could be viewed as a very mild Dem gerrymander)



https://davesredistricting.org/join/848d7399-01fe-47c9-869e-0f6ca7162326

GA-01: Trump+15, R+9
GA-02: Clinton+6, D+2 (49% black)
GA-03: Trump+35, R+20
GA-04: Clinton+73, D+29 (56% black)
GA-05: Clinton+59, D+26 (55% black)
GA-06: Clinton+2, R+4
GA-07: Clinton+14, D+2 (34% white, 31% black, 23% hispanic, 13% Asian)
GA-08: Trump+28, R+14
GA-09: Trump+49, R+27
GA-10: Trump+28, R+14
GA-11: Trump+35, R+23
GA-12: Trump+3, R+3
GA-13: Clinton+27, D+11
GA-14: Trump+59, R+31

The main difference with your proposal is that the fair map actually would keep one of the Southern Georgia seats as safe (although tbf Clinton+6 is not that safe and it is not impossible for the seat to flip), and create a 2nd swing seat in Southern Georgia.

[Former President tack50]

For fun, here is how a Dem gerrymander could look like if it did not respect the VRA. I targeted the districts to be somewhere around Clinton+7 and Abrams+10 or more.

This map is a 9D-3R-1S map, with 9 Safe D districts (or about as safe as Clinton+7 can get); 3 safe R districts (all over 70% Trump) and 1 pure tossup district that Trump won by 0.3% and Abrams won by literally 0.1%:



GA-01: Trump+43, Kemp+45, R+21
GA-02: Trump+0.3, Abrams+0.1, EVEN (47% black, 45% white)
GA-03: Clinton+7, Abrams+15, D+1 (47% white, 44% black)
GA-04: Clinton+10, Abrams+14, D+3 (50% white, 40% black)
GA-05: Clinton+7, Abrams+12, R+4 (65% white, 16% black)
GA-06: Clinton+6, Abrams+12, R+3 (42% white, 24% hispanic, 20% black, 16% asian)
GA-07: Clinton+5, Abrams+13, EVEN (42% white, 39% black, 10% hispanic)
GA-08: Clinton+8, Abrams+10, D+3 (48% black, 46% white)
GA-09: Trump+56, Kemp+55, R+31
GA-10: Clinton+7, Abrams+10, D+2 (49% white, 42% black)
GA-11: Clinton+6, Abrams+13, R+1 (48% white, 35% black, 13% hispanic)
GA-12: Clinton+8, Abrams+10, D+3 (49% white, 43% black, 6% hispanic)
GA-13: Clinton+10, Abrams+13, D+4 (46% black, 43% white)
GA-14: Trump+57, Kemp+59, R+30

https://davesredistricting.org/join/06054b15-249d-4437-811c-964f1a4b53d0

Ironically despite not respecting the VRA this map would probably elect just as many black representatives, if not more than the current map (the 8th and the 13th at least, plus the 2nd if that is held by a Dem; and I assume one of the other Dem districts would also elect a black representative)

[Former President tack50]

Is it really a safe bet that 4 black districts will be required in the Atlanta area? In my opinion it is fairly easy to justify that only 3 are needed. The COIs write themselves if you only do 3:

1 DeKalb county district
1 southern Fulton county district
1 "southern suburbs" district.

All of these are "natural" COIs, create very nice districts and lead to 3 VRA districts that are 55%, 58% and 57% black respectively.

If doing a fair map, there is also a 4th "natural" majority minority COI that would be basically most of Gwinett county, but that one would not be a VRA protected district (38% white, 31% black, 23% Hispanic, 12% Asian) and would get cracked in an R gerrymander anyways.



Meanwhile, if you go for 4 VRA districts, you need to deliberately gerrymander to get the desired result. I am open to see better maps, but my try had districts that, while somewhat clean, still broke more counties and COIs:

1 most of DeKalb + a bit of southern Gwinnett
1 southeastern suburbs and rurals
1 southern Fulton + a part of Clayton + southwestern rurals
1 Atlanta + southern Cobb

The former arrangement is certainly a much nicer one.

[Former President tack50]

My take on a fair map:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d35e4fd1-e11f-477b-b1c4-b83cf73fd195

GA-01 (Coastal GA): Kemp+14, Trump+16, R+9
GA-02 (southwest VRA seat): Abrams+9, Clinton+8, D+4 (51% black)
GA-03 (west Atlanta exurbs): Kemp+27, Trump+31, R+17
GA-04 (DeKalb County, VRA seat): Abrams+68, Clinton+64, D+29 (56% black)
GA-05 (Atlanta / South Fulton, VRA seat): Abrams+66, Clinton+63, D+28 (57% black)
GA-06 (Cobb County): Abrams+9, Clinton+2, R+4
GA-07 (most of Gwinett County): Abrams+15, Clinton+7, R+2 (38% white, 31% black, 21% Hispanic, 11% Asian)
GA-08 (South central GA): Kemp+33, Trump+35, R+16
GA-09 (Northeast GA): Kemp+61, Trump+61, R+32
GA-10 (Athens & Augusta): Kemp+9, Trump+9, R+6
GA-11 (Forsyth, North Fulton & parts of Cherokee and Gwinnett): Kemp+17, Trump+23, R+17
GA-12 (East Central GA): Kemp+31, Trump+29, R+15
GA-13 (South Atlanta suburbs, VRA seat): Abrams+33, Clinton+24, D+10 (54% black)
GA-14 (Northwest GA): Kemp+50, Trump+52, R+28

Overall this should be a fairly simple 8R-6D map, which seems like the fair partisan number to me. District 10 is winnable in a big wave by Dems at only Trump+9, Kemp+9 but it is a very hard lift and  it is not trending in either direction.

District 11 starts as completely unwinnable by Dems. Theoretically trends should make it closer and closer, but I think it would almost certainly remain R for the entire decade

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, I agree with Sol and lfromnj here; Augusta-Savannah is certainly a Dem gerrymander. Not the worst gerrymander ever, but still far from the most optimum district out there.

Even if you want a competitive or Dem leaning district, you can do better. The best bet to get a competitive district in the area is to just go into the black belt after taking in Athens and Augusta.

This is the cleanest option and probably the one that respects COIs the most. The main issue is that there seems to be a cascading effect, where you:

a) End up with a weird snake leftovers district
b) End up with a GA-02 that has some sort of "appendix" or needlessly splits counties and cities
c) End up possibly destroing the VRA character of GA-02
d) End up with a "GA-02" that has to go into the Atlanta suburbs

Here are maps for each of the 3 options:

Option 1a:



District 1 here is Abrams+1, Trump+0, R+2
District 2 is Abrams+8, Clinton+8, D+4 (51% black)

The other 3 districts are Safe R

Option 1b:



District 1 is Abrams+1, Clinton+0, R+2
District 2 is Abrams+8, Clinton+7, D+3
District 3 is Kemp+10, Trump+11, R+7

Districts 4 and 5 are Safe R

Option 1c



Here districts 1, 3 and 4 are unchanged. However now district 2, while still black plurality by population (albeit 50% white by CVAP) is now Kemp+2, Trump+3 and R+2; so it won't elect a black Democrat (the district would be super inelastic I imagine)



District 2 is Abrams+14, Clinton+9, D+3
District 5 is Kemp+8, Trump+9, R+5 (still only white plurality by population, though a majority by CVAP)

Districts 1, 3 and 4 are unchanged.

[Former President tack50]

Not really a Congressional redistricting map, but I don't know where else to post this. Some have discusses MaineRuling GA for presidential elections, but here is a proposal that would make even more sense. Divide the state into 16 districts (1 per electoral vote).

I am not sure of the legality, but the VRA possibly would not apply to these presidential districts because these districts would not be Congressional districts?

Assuming the VRA indeed does not apply, the Republicans could leave Democrats with as little as 3 Electoral Votes (compared to somewhere around 7 with standard MaineRuling)

Here is a quick map that for example would cut Dems to only 3/16 EVs, and it probably isn't the greatest map anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cd1b3b23-044f-4ba2-9783-879ec2445e8a

[Former President tack50]

Here is my attempt at a "bombproof" R gerrymander, that also isn't too egregious or ugly. I went for 9-5 while making sure all Dem districts are black districts (iirc that is what Republicans tend to prefer since a white Dem proves a bigger threat statewide right?)

Also made sure all R representatives have a district each, without putting 2 Republicans in the same seat. All Atlanta area seats are at worst Kemp+18; with the worst district overall being the Augusta centred 12th at Kemp+9, Trump+8, R+5 (so perhaps Republicans might want to shore that one up slightly even if it isn't trending much)



https://davesredistricting.org/join/92d11173-c6bc-4ef6-9405-2dd75d31f1d9

GA-01: Kemp+14, Trump+15, R+8
GA-02: Abrams+13, Clinton+11, D+5 (49% black CVAP)
GA-03: Kemp+33, Trump+33, R+19
GA-04: Abrams+59, Clinton+55, D+24 (53% black CVAP)
GA-05: Abrams+56, Clinton+54, D+24 (50% black CVAP)
GA-06: Abrams+44, Clinton+36, D+15 (52% black CVAP)
GA-07: Kemp+19, Trump+23, R+16
GA-08: Kemp+39, Trump+37, R+18
GA-09: Kemp+22, Trump+27, R+19
GA-10: Kemp+46, Trump+45, R+24
GA-11: Kemp+24, Trump+29, R+20
GA-12: Kemp+9, Trump+8, R+5
GA-13: Abrams+40, Clinton+32, D+14 (57% black CVAP)
GA-14: Kemp+42, Trump+45, R+25

[Former President tack50]

I am surprised my GA-07 trended so fast in only 2 years. Trump+23 to Kemp+19 to only Trump+9 is a huge change