Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

[DINGO Joe]

Demographic change happens pretty fast in metro Atlanta.  By my calculations, whites will all be in the TN, SC and AL parts of the metroplex by 2030

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

Yeah I have seen some safe R Georgia seats at around +20 Trump but thats using 2010 population, make that +15 Trump or even around +12 due to parochial/population changes and yeah it cost the GA GOp 1-2 more seats than just making a sink.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

It would be positively idiotic for them not to. The math is super simple there imo.

GA-9: 78-19 Trump
GA-14: 75-22 Trump
GA-11: 60-35 Trump
GA-10: 61-36 Trump
GA-3: 64-33

GA-6 and GA-7 are literally surrounded by super red Trump districts. Even just GA-9 and GA-14 would be enough to turn them red. There's 0 reason from a gerrymandering perspective for the legislature to hold back.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

It would be positively idiotic for them not to. The math is super simple there imo.

GA-9: 78-19 Trump
GA-14: 75-22 Trump
GA-11: 60-35 Trump
GA-10: 61-36 Trump
GA-3: 64-33

GA-6 and GA-7 are literally surrounded by super red Trump districts. Even just GA-9 and GA-14 would be enough to turn them red. There's 0 reason from a gerrymandering perspective for the legislature to hold back.

Yes but the counter to that is look at what happened in Texas last year. The Austin pizza slice seats that were all like >60% McCain/Romney almost all fell in one single election because of the rapid blue bubble expanding out of the urban core. The same thing is happening in Atlanta.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

It would be positively idiotic for them not to. The math is super simple there imo.

GA-9: 78-19 Trump
GA-14: 75-22 Trump
GA-11: 60-35 Trump
GA-10: 61-36 Trump
GA-3: 64-33

GA-6 and GA-7 are literally surrounded by super red Trump districts. Even just GA-9 and GA-14 would be enough to turn them red. There's 0 reason from a gerrymandering perspective for the legislature to hold back.

Yes but the counter to that is look at what happened in Texas last year. The Austin pizza slice seats that were all like >60% McCain/Romney almost all fell in one single election because of the rapid blue bubble expanding out of the urban core. The same thing is happening in Atlanta.

Yeah, but they all held in the end (though they could break next year). Most importantly however, Apples to Oranges. Austin is a 70% D uber liberal city, not a bunch of 50-50 bedroom communities.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

It would be positively idiotic for them not to. The math is super simple there imo.

GA-9: 78-19 Trump
GA-14: 75-22 Trump
GA-11: 60-35 Trump
GA-10: 61-36 Trump
GA-3: 64-33

GA-6 and GA-7 are literally surrounded by super red Trump districts. Even just GA-9 and GA-14 would be enough to turn them red. There's 0 reason from a gerrymandering perspective for the legislature to hold back.

Yes but the counter to that is look at what happened in Texas last year. The Austin pizza slice seats that were all like >60% McCain/Romney almost all fell in one single election because of the rapid blue bubble expanding out of the urban core. The same thing is happening in Atlanta.

Yeah, but they all held in the end (though they could break next year). Most importantly however, Apples to Oranges. Austin is a 70% D uber liberal city, not a bunch of 50-50 bedroom communities.

Gwinnett and Cobb counties aren’t yet maxed out for Democrats.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

It would be positively idiotic for them not to. The math is super simple there imo.

GA-9: 78-19 Trump
GA-14: 75-22 Trump
GA-11: 60-35 Trump
GA-10: 61-36 Trump
GA-3: 64-33

GA-6 and GA-7 are literally surrounded by super red Trump districts. Even just GA-9 and GA-14 would be enough to turn them red. There's 0 reason from a gerrymandering perspective for the legislature to hold back.

Yes but the counter to that is look at what happened in Texas last year. The Austin pizza slice seats that were all like >60% McCain/Romney almost all fell in one single election because of the rapid blue bubble expanding out of the urban core. The same thing is happening in Atlanta.

Yeah, but they all held in the end (though they could break next year). Most importantly however, Apples to Oranges. Austin is a 70% D uber liberal city, not a bunch of 50-50 bedroom communities.

Gwinnett and Cobb counties aren’t yet maxed out for Democrats.

Sure, but not all of Gwinnett or Cobb counties needs or should be in the same district. Besides, even if they started voting 60-40 D, you could still work out a pretty good gerrymander that takes both GA-6 and 7 back to the woodshed.

[nerd73]

2004 results from https://web.archive.org/web/20160114215855/http://cookpolitical.com/application/writable/uploads/2012_PVI_by_District.pdf

2004 results in GA-07:
Bush: 70%
Kerry: 30%

2012 results in GA-07:
Romney: 60.2%
Obama: 38.3%

2018 results in GA-07:
Woodall: 50.1%
Bourdeaux: 49.9%

A 39.9% swing over 14 years.

[Adam Griffin]

.......

It's possible to draw an 11-3 map on paper, but it's going to potentially be one hell of a dummymander: the best you could hope for would be a 9R-5D split by mid-decade. When you start trying to maximize GOP performance everywhere - even in many rural areas - those districts start getting flimsy. That doesn't even count the ATL metro, which is its own problem.


Perhaps the only tangible requirement are the 3 VRA-protected ATL districts. Bishop's district isn't protected as I understand it, but the GOP drew it as a votesink (remember that Jim Marshall barely lost in 2010: a decent chunk of South GA was competitive then). I highly doubt it'll be eligible for protection in 2021, but I could easily see them drawing it once again, with the below map illustrating why.

Those 4 South GA districts are not particularly strong for the GOP. Obviously the GOP isn't going to draw a bunch of relatively non-contiguous and/or east-to-west abominations that run the risk of being struck down in court post-2022. When you take apart Bishop's district's votesink configuration, you start unleashing a cascading effect across the southern half of the state.

Trump won all 4 of these districts by 10-15 points - which doesn't necessarily make them very competitive (but they're not particularly great performances, either) and I'd say 3 of the 4 could be vulnerable under the right set of circumstances. In particular, CDs 13 & 14 have sizable and growing urban/suburban areas. I'd also point out that in Bishop's real district (CD 2; below, it'd be CD 11), he overperformed Clinton in 2016 by 10 points (Clinton +12 vs Bishop +22) - there's a chance you could still end up losing such a seat, or having to fight tooth and nail for it at minimum. Throw in a bad cycle for the GOP and a turnout differential, and things can get real messy real quick in multiple districts.


For the metro itself, it's fairly easy to shore up the GOP - assuming the kinds of swings from 2016-2018 don't continue unabated (I think it's a fair assumption; demographic shifts will continue but there aren't hordes of white suburbanites remaining to be flipped as has happened over the past 3 years). The 10th district obviously falls either in 2022 or 2024 (it's filled with young non-whites, and I could see the turnout differential in 2022 costing Democrats the seat initially, as what happened in the SD-43 special in 2015, which was an Obama +40 district). District 3 would probably fall somewhere around mid-decade, being the Democrats' 5th guaranteed seat; I think CDs 2, 4 & 6 would hold barring massive growth and demographic shifts.

[Adam Griffin]

At any rate, given this will likely be the last cycle that the GOP gets to draw maps in an uncontested fashion, it makes little sense for them to take on potentially huge risks that could wipe them out prematurely. They can either cushion the fall and make it a much more gradual one - where they maintain a majority of the congressional delegation and/or state legislature for another 8-10 years - or they could roll the dice and potentially cost themselves way more far sooner than they would otherwise lose it (this is especially true in the General Assembly). The VRA of course helps temper their worse temptations in this regard, but I don't see the GAGOP trying to overextend themselves given the clear trajectory of the state at this point.

[Adam Griffin]

BTW, Georgia DRA now has 2016 Presidential & Senatorial results in lieu of the 2012/16 PVI ratings, so you can see both contests' results by precinct.

The map above I initially drew using 2016 block group population estimates and racial data, but sadly when using those, only the 2008 data is displayed. I redrew the map using 2010 VTDs to get the 2016 margins for each district.

[Skill and Chance]

At any rate, given this will likely be the last cycle that the GOP gets to draw maps in an uncontested fashion, it makes little sense for them to take on potentially huge risks that could wipe them out prematurely. They can either cushion the fall and make it a much more gradual one - where they maintain a majority of the congressional delegation and/or state legislature for another 8-10 years - or they could roll the dice and potentially cost themselves way more far sooner than they would otherwise lose it (this is especially true in the General Assembly). The VRA of course helps temper their worse temptations in this regard, but I don't see the GAGOP trying to overextend themselves given the clear trajectory of the state at this point.

Speaking of which, could the control of the lower house be in play in a scenario where Trump loses GA?  At the very least, I'd expect a Dem performance equivalent to VA 2008 would flip it?

[Adam Griffin]

At any rate, given this will likely be the last cycle that the GOP gets to draw maps in an uncontested fashion, it makes little sense for them to take on potentially huge risks that could wipe them out prematurely. They can either cushion the fall and make it a much more gradual one - where they maintain a majority of the congressional delegation and/or state legislature for another 8-10 years - or they could roll the dice and potentially cost themselves way more far sooner than they would otherwise lose it (this is especially true in the General Assembly). The VRA of course helps temper their worse temptations in this regard, but I don't see the GAGOP trying to overextend themselves given the clear trajectory of the state at this point.

Speaking of which, could the control of the lower house be in play in a scenario where Trump loses GA?  At the very least, I'd expect a Dem performance equivalent to VA 2008 would flip it?

Perhaps - I'm not sure of exactly where along the sliding scale the dam would break, but the General Assembly performance lagged the gubernatorial performance by roughly 7.5 points in PV alone, and the congressional PV by 4 points.

Contest	GOP	DEM	GOP	DEM	Margin
Governor	50.2	48.8	1978408	1923685	R+1.4
US House	52.3	47.7	1987191	1814469	R+4.6
State House	54.3	45.6	1884211	1582161	R+8.7
State Senate	54.4	45.6	1914110	1603472	R+8.8

Some of this is certainly due to a lack of credible (or any) challengers on the part of Democrats in state legislative districts - even just a couple of cycles ago, Democrats didn't even field the 91 candidates needed on paper in the State House to theoretically take the majority. I wish I knew how much could be attributed to that off the top of my head (I've calculated it before I believe), but alas.

[Skill and Chance]

At any rate, given this will likely be the last cycle that the GOP gets to draw maps in an uncontested fashion, it makes little sense for them to take on potentially huge risks that could wipe them out prematurely. They can either cushion the fall and make it a much more gradual one - where they maintain a majority of the congressional delegation and/or state legislature for another 8-10 years - or they could roll the dice and potentially cost themselves way more far sooner than they would otherwise lose it (this is especially true in the General Assembly). The VRA of course helps temper their worse temptations in this regard, but I don't see the GAGOP trying to overextend themselves given the clear trajectory of the state at this point.

Speaking of which, could the control of the lower house be in play in a scenario where Trump loses GA?  At the very least, I'd expect a Dem performance equivalent to VA 2008 would flip it?

Perhaps - I'm not sure of exactly where along the sliding scale the dam would break, but the General Assembly performance lagged the gubernatorial performance by roughly 7.5 points in PV alone, and the congressional PV by 4 points.

Contest	GOP	DEM	GOP	DEM	Margin
Governor	50.2	48.8	1978408	1923685	R+1.4
US House	52.3	47.7	1987191	1814469	R+4.6
State House	54.3	45.6	1884211	1582161	R+8.7
State Senate	54.4	45.6	1914110	1603472	R+8.8

I have to imagine there were a bunch of outer ATL seats Abrams ended up winning that legislative Dems didn't seriously contest?

Seems like the smart move for GA Republicans would be to draw something favorable but nice looking and then propose a constitutional amendment to lock in anti-county/municipality splitting rules?

I also think we need to seriously consider the possibility that SCOTUS ends up ruling that VRA doesn't impose any restrictions on redistricting practices at all.

[Zaybay]

Heres a hypothetical GA map:



District   Ethnicity   White   Black   Native   Asian/PI   Hispanic   Other
1   Mostly White   60%   29%   0%   2%   7%   2%
2   Black / White Mix   52%   39%   0%   1%   6%   1%
3   Mostly White   61%   30%   0%   2%   5%   2%
4   Mostly Black   29%   54%   0%   6%   9%   2%
5   Black / White Mix   35%   52%   0%   4%   8%   2%
6   Mostly White   51%   19%   0%   12%   15%   3%
7   Mixed   41%   27%   0%   10%   20%   2%
8   Black / White Mix   54%   37%   0%   1%   6%   2%
9   Solid White   77%   5%   0%   4%   13%   2%
10   Mostly White   66%   23%   0%   2%   7%   2%
11   Mostly White   69%   19%   0%   3%   7%   2%
12   Black / White Mix   55%   37%   0%   2%   4%   2%
13   Mostly Black   29%   56%   0%   3%   9%   2%
14   Solid White   79%   6%   0%   1%   12%   1%


2016 vote:
GA-01: Trump +10
GA-02: Trump +17
GA-03: Trump +25
GA-04: Clinton +63
GA-05: Clinton +53
GA-06: Clinton +4
GA-07: Clinton +5
GA-08: Trump +18
GA-09: Trump +52
GA-10: Trump +24
GA-11: Trump +35
GA-12: Trump +11
GA-13: Clinton +38
GA-14: Trump +56


The map would likely provide a reliable 8R-5D delegation. Its a bit of a safer choice for the GOP, but its a map that can last.

[lfromnj]

Heres a hypothetical GA map:



District   Ethnicity   White   Black   Native   Asian/PI   Hispanic   Other
1   Mostly White   60%   29%   0%   2%   7%   2%
2   Black / White Mix   52%   39%   0%   1%   6%   1%
3   Mostly White   61%   30%   0%   2%   5%   2%
4   Mostly Black   29%   54%   0%   6%   9%   2%
5   Black / White Mix   35%   52%   0%   4%   8%   2%
6   Mostly White   51%   19%   0%   12%   15%   3%
7   Mixed   41%   27%   0%   10%   20%   2%
8   Black / White Mix   54%   37%   0%   1%   6%   2%
9   Solid White   77%   5%   0%   4%   13%   2%
10   Mostly White   66%   23%   0%   2%   7%   2%
11   Mostly White   69%   19%   0%   3%   7%   2%
12   Black / White Mix   55%   37%   0%   2%   4%   2%
13   Mostly Black   29%   56%   0%   3%   9%   2%
14   Solid White   79%   6%   0%   1%   12%   1%


2016 vote:
GA-01: Trump +10
GA-02: Trump +17
GA-03: Trump +25
GA-04: Clinton +63
GA-05: Clinton +53
GA-06: Clinton +4
GA-07: Clinton +5
GA-08: Trump +18
GA-09: Trump +52
GA-10: Trump +24
GA-11: Trump +35
GA-12: Trump +11
GA-13: Clinton +38
GA-14: Trump +56


The map would likely provide a reliable 8R-5D delegation. Its a bit of a safer choice for the GOP, but its a map that can last.

Why not just trade precincts between 6 and 7.

[Adam Griffin]

At any rate, given this will likely be the last cycle that the GOP gets to draw maps in an uncontested fashion, it makes little sense for them to take on potentially huge risks that could wipe them out prematurely. They can either cushion the fall and make it a much more gradual one - where they maintain a majority of the congressional delegation and/or state legislature for another 8-10 years - or they could roll the dice and potentially cost themselves way more far sooner than they would otherwise lose it (this is especially true in the General Assembly). The VRA of course helps temper their worse temptations in this regard, but I don't see the GAGOP trying to overextend themselves given the clear trajectory of the state at this point.

Speaking of which, could the control of the lower house be in play in a scenario where Trump loses GA?  At the very least, I'd expect a Dem performance equivalent to VA 2008 would flip it?

Perhaps - I'm not sure of exactly where along the sliding scale the dam would break, but the General Assembly performance lagged the gubernatorial performance by roughly 7.5 points in PV alone, and the congressional PV by 4 points.

Contest	GOP	DEM	GOP	DEM	Margin
Governor	50.2	48.8	1978408	1923685	R+1.4
US House	52.3	47.7	1987191	1814469	R+4.6
State House	54.3	45.6	1884211	1582161	R+8.7
State Senate	54.4	45.6	1914110	1603472	R+8.8

I have to imagine there were a bunch of outer ATL seats Abrams ended up winning that legislative Dems didn't seriously contest?

Late edit above, but there were some districts where Democrats could have won if they had ran credible candidates, and some where Abrams won despite our legislative candidates losing.

In 2018 in the State House, Democrats fielded 118 candidates compared to the GOP's 127: the difference is equivalent to 5% of the seats in the lower chamber. I'm not sure about 2018 specifically, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrat stands to receive a greater share of the vote in an uncontested GOP district (say, 30-35%) than vice-versa (20-25%).

I'm guessing right now, but I figure the difference between the 127 vs 118 & the 30-35% vs 20-25% probably would account for around 1 point or so.

[Skill and Chance]

Heres a hypothetical GA map:



District   Ethnicity   White   Black   Native   Asian/PI   Hispanic   Other
1   Mostly White   60%   29%   0%   2%   7%   2%
2   Black / White Mix   52%   39%   0%   1%   6%   1%
3   Mostly White   61%   30%   0%   2%   5%   2%
4   Mostly Black   29%   54%   0%   6%   9%   2%
5   Black / White Mix   35%   52%   0%   4%   8%   2%
6   Mostly White   51%   19%   0%   12%   15%   3%
7   Mixed   41%   27%   0%   10%   20%   2%
8   Black / White Mix   54%   37%   0%   1%   6%   2%
9   Solid White   77%   5%   0%   4%   13%   2%
10   Mostly White   66%   23%   0%   2%   7%   2%
11   Mostly White   69%   19%   0%   3%   7%   2%
12   Black / White Mix   55%   37%   0%   2%   4%   2%
13   Mostly Black   29%   56%   0%   3%   9%   2%
14   Solid White   79%   6%   0%   1%   12%   1%


2016 vote:
GA-01: Trump +10
GA-02: Trump +17
GA-03: Trump +25
GA-04: Clinton +63
GA-05: Clinton +53
GA-06: Clinton +4
GA-07: Clinton +5
GA-08: Trump +18
GA-09: Trump +52
GA-10: Trump +24
GA-11: Trump +35
GA-12: Trump +11
GA-13: Clinton +38
GA-14: Trump +56


The map would likely provide a reliable 8R-5D delegation. Its a bit of a safer choice for the GOP, but its a map that can last.

This is what I expect will happen.  There will be no appetite to MD-02/03/04 the North GA mountains to Atlanta.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Well thank y'all for your kind 8 seat maps, but the GA GOP doesn't even need to go close to that

https://imgur.com/a/cpbG9t6

Here's a safe R 11-3 map.

Green ATL District - 22%-75%, Clinton +53

Purple ATL District - 15%-83%, Clinton +68

Orange ATL District - 13%-85%, Clinton +72

Yellow ATL District - 57%-38%, Trump +19

Greenish-Blue ATL District - 57%-39%, Trump +18

Grey ATL District - 58%-38%, Trump +20

Purple District that includes Athens (to the right of ATL) - 60%-37%, Trump +23

Illuminated Blue district along SC border - 61-37%, Trump +24

Pink District that includes Savannah - 59-38%, Trump +21

Light Green South GA district - 60-38%, Trump +22

North to Central GA light blue district - 70-28%, Trump +42

Brown District South of ATL - 57-40%, Trump+17

Alabama Border District - 64-34, Trump +30

Weird Central GA Orange District - 62-36, Trump +26

It ain't pretty, but it gives you 11 safe R Trump +17 or higher districts. There's no need to come even close to an 8 seat map - drawing an 11 seat map isn't even too hard, though a 10 seater might be better to avoid VRA trouble.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Oh, and I noticed the light blue district has a small bit of unconnected land - just fixed that, results unchanged.

[Nyvin]

Well thank y'all for your kind 8 seat maps, but the GA GOP doesn't even need to go close to that

https://imgur.com/a/cpbG9t6

It ain't pretty, but it gives you 11 safe R Trump +17 or higher districts. There's no need to come even close to an 8 seat map - drawing an 11 seat map isn't even too hard, though a 10 seater might be better to avoid VRA trouble.

That's absolutely hideous.  I think even the initial NC 2011 map was better than that.

A district going from the southern border to the northern border should never happen in Georgia, ever.

[Skill and Chance]

Well thank y'all for your kind 8 seat maps, but the GA GOP doesn't even need to go close to that

https://imgur.com/a/cpbG9t6

It ain't pretty, but it gives you 11 safe R Trump +17 or higher districts. There's no need to come even close to an 8 seat map - drawing an 11 seat map isn't even too hard, though a 10 seater might be better to avoid VRA trouble.

That's absolutely hideous.  I think even the initial NC 2011 map was better than that.

A district going from the southern border to the northern border should never happen in Georgia, ever.

I expect them to go 9R/5D, likely by flipping GA-02 and putting all 5 of the Dem seats in Atlanta.

I wonder what a court map would look like?  I would think 9R/5D, but with the 9th R seat not as safe, or perhaps 8/4/2?