Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

Yeah I have seen some safe R Georgia seats at around +20 Trump but thats using 2010 population, make that +15 Trump or even around +12 due to parochial/population changes and yeah it cost the GA GOp 1-2 more seats than just making a sink.

[lfromnj]

Heres a hypothetical GA map:



District   Ethnicity   White   Black   Native   Asian/PI   Hispanic   Other
1   Mostly White   60%   29%   0%   2%   7%   2%
2   Black / White Mix   52%   39%   0%   1%   6%   1%
3   Mostly White   61%   30%   0%   2%   5%   2%
4   Mostly Black   29%   54%   0%   6%   9%   2%
5   Black / White Mix   35%   52%   0%   4%   8%   2%
6   Mostly White   51%   19%   0%   12%   15%   3%
7   Mixed   41%   27%   0%   10%   20%   2%
8   Black / White Mix   54%   37%   0%   1%   6%   2%
9   Solid White   77%   5%   0%   4%   13%   2%
10   Mostly White   66%   23%   0%   2%   7%   2%
11   Mostly White   69%   19%   0%   3%   7%   2%
12   Black / White Mix   55%   37%   0%   2%   4%   2%
13   Mostly Black   29%   56%   0%   3%   9%   2%
14   Solid White   79%   6%   0%   1%   12%   1%


2016 vote:
GA-01: Trump +10
GA-02: Trump +17
GA-03: Trump +25
GA-04: Clinton +63
GA-05: Clinton +53
GA-06: Clinton +4
GA-07: Clinton +5
GA-08: Trump +18
GA-09: Trump +52
GA-10: Trump +24
GA-11: Trump +35
GA-12: Trump +11
GA-13: Clinton +38
GA-14: Trump +56


The map would likely provide a reliable 8R-5D delegation. Its a bit of a safer choice for the GOP, but its a map that can last.

Why not just trade precincts between 6 and 7.

[lfromnj]

Would this satisfy the VRA for GA 2? This packs more of Atlanta to be safer for the GA GOp but still has 4 black majority districts(actually all around 49% VAP)

[lfromnj]

According to 538’s Atlas of Redistricting, there are a wide variety of ways to redistrict this state, depending on the main goal:

-The most pro-R gerrymander would be 11R-3D;
-The most pro-D gerrymander would be 8D-6R;
-A “proportionally partisan” map would be 8R-6D;
-It is possible to create as many as 7 swing districts or 6 districts where non-Whites are a majority.
-If county splits are to be kept to a minimum, it could involve as few as 11 splits (the current map has 22 splits).

I wouldn't use 538s map imo. It uses PVI and other factors which is useless in Georgia which is a state where it's mostly 2016 and 2018. For example GA 7th is shown as 94% Chance of going GOP in the 538 map when its clearly one of the most competitive districts in 2018 and 2016 and was relatively close at a presidential level in 2016.

[lfromnj]

Yeah I am pretty sure the only obstacle to 11-3 will be the VRA.

[lfromnj]

Anyway 11-3,

Did forget a precint in Cobb but thats because the precints there are super ugly so it got stuck in somewhere else.
All 3 black Atlanta VRA districts are under 60% black but also all around 80% clinton, All Atlanta area districts are 61% or More for Trump(which means Trump +27) besides the yellow one which is Trump +23 so might fall by 2030.

All 4 Southside are Double Digit Trump so basically Safe R for all of them, maybe Bishop survives 2022 if its a Trump midterm as the Albany based district is only Trump +10 but its still very unlikely.

Zoom in of Atlanta.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/davesredist/status/1255310071522869248

2018 GA.

Also good to check the 97% rural white vote.

[lfromnj]

I think would be a relatively fair map of the Atlanta region. Only splits Atlanta once because I chose to keep Dekalb county whole.

Anyway
Purple =Clinton +3 Almost all of Cobb County besides 2 precints, perfectly good COI to keep whole- Lean/Likely D rn but quickly approaching Safe D.
Green = Most of Milton +Forsyth and most of Cherokee- 63% Trump and should be Safe R even by the end of 2030
Blue = most o Atlanta +SW dekalb and part of Milton county. Titanium D at 78% Clinton and 58% Black by 2018 population.
Red = Middle class suburbs +white flight suburbs South of Atlanta+ tiny chop of dekalb county. Majority black but still has relative racial polarization to keep it at only 65% Clinton
Yellow = Dekalb county and Titanium D, doesn't include a few thousand people in the SW for population purposes.
Teal = Inner Gwinett county and used to be competitive for the GOP but its +15 Clinton so Safe D and +24 Abrams so obviously Safe D. Was Mccain +4.

Overall is a 4-1-1 map with the swing district quickly becoming Safe D.

[lfromnj]

I think would be a relatively fair map of the Atlanta region. Only splits Atlanta once because I chose to keep Dekalb county whole.

Anyway
Purple =Clinton +3 Almost all of Cobb County besides 2 precints, perfectly good COI to keep whole- Lean/Likely D rn but quickly approaching Safe D.
Green = Most of Milton +Forsyth and most of Cherokee- 63% Trump and should be Safe R even by the end of 2030
Blue = most o Atlanta +SW dekalb and part of Milton county. Titanium D at 78% Clinton and 58% Black by 2018 population.
Red = Middle class suburbs +white flight suburbs South of Atlanta+ tiny chop of dekalb county. Majority black but still has relative racial polarization to keep it at only 65% Clinton
Yellow = Dekalb county and Titanium D
Teal = Inner Gwinett county and used to be competitive for the GOP but its +15 Clinton so Safe D and +24 Abrams so obviously Safe D. Was Mccain +4.

Overall is a 4-1-1 map with the swing district quickly becoming Safe D.

Yeah, this is what I'd call fair, though in all reality the Cobb one would be Safe D in practice already with trends.

I would say the GOP would have a chance of picking it up in a 2022 Biden midterm with bad minority turnout but past that its obviously Safe D and even in 2022 its a slim chance so yeah should just call it Likely D right now , don't know why I called it Lean which was just stupid.

[lfromnj]

If you are drawing a 10-4 and making ga 2nd ugly just draw it into clayton county.
This way you can shore up the rest of atlanta.

[lfromnj]

Anyway secure 10-4 done by moving the 2nd upto Clayton county although the 2nd is still pretty compact to avoid any claims of a racial gerrymander atleast for that district.

Closest Kemp in north Georgia is Kemp +24.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f5c722db-f6e1-4291-852f-49c5f16846ad

The most suburban district(Brown) is still Kemp +29.

[lfromnj]

People forget literally half the current active justices on the 11th court are Trump appointees.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71a9a4dc-bc35-45b2-92b7-a688debd827b
I made a State Senate map based off of the 2018 estimates.

Why Split Savanah like that?
Seems like a D gerrymander by taking the blackest parts of Savanah to create 2 SafeD D districts there. The second district should probably be closer to a swing district.

[lfromnj]

So the map overall is a D gerrymander ?



What do you do in a state like Wisconsin when you draw the maps based with numbers similar to 2012 for 2010 redistricting and then Clinton comes in and loses all the swingish fair districts in the rural area by an absurd number? Do you redistrict the map because now its unfair?

[lfromnj]

So the map overall is a D gerrymander ?



What do you do in a state like Wisconsin when you draw the maps based with numbers similar to 2012 for 2010 redistricting and then Clinton comes in and loses all the swingish fair districts in the rural area by an absurd number? Do you redistrict the map because now its unfair?

Wisconsin is a lot less inelastic than Georgia.

Sure in certain areas  but the point still stands,  a map can all of a sudden become unfair, should that require redistricting if that happens?

[lfromnj]

Here's my newest take on a Fair GA; aside from Coweta and splitting Middle Georgia I think everything is pretty decent and has good CoI/VRA. It's also pretty proportional, not that that should matter (GA-11 might have been won by Biden this time).

Sorry for not including a screenshot.

I don't mind the Athens to Augusta district in a vacuum as Athens isn't really a COI with anything but Oconee which is also in the district. The problem with doing that is I feel South Georgia is neatly put in with 4 districts and by taking Athens you effectively make the 3rd district take parts of South Georgia.

[lfromnj]

4 South Georgia districts.

I think Warner Robbins should and can go with Macon.

Could probably even increase compactness if one wanted to split Columbus along the clear racial lines there but I disagree.(only a few rural precincts are not there in Houston county)

Coastal Savanah
Augusta

[lfromnj]

4 South Georgia districts.

I think Warner Robbins should and can go with Macon.

Could probably even increase compactness if one wanted to split Columbus along the clear racial lines there but I disagree.(only a few rural precincts are not there in Houston county)

Coastal Savanah
Augusta

What are the racial #s on the 1st?

Personally not crazy about splitting Lee from Dougherty; plus the Macon metro is still disunited.

49.7% black total pop 2018 47.8 by CVAP

However its still +12 Abrams.

Anyway if the Macon metro still isn't fully united I would say atleast the core of it is.

Lee can be fixed by trading Sumter with Lee or taking northern Columbus away and putting Lee in.

[lfromnj]

Eliminating the 2nd seems like a good way to get sued.

Sued in what manner ?
Basically the courts would just do a partial rotation like Virginia .

[lfromnj]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

Especially a fair (proportional) map might well separate them. And CoI-wise, a district anchored in the rurals directly east of Metro Atlanta is better off with Columbia than with areas directly south not within other districts.
Pairing Richmond with the Black Belt or Savannah is a fine concept even from merely a CoI perspective.

No its not, Savanah is a clear Coastal region COI that fits perfectly.

[lfromnj]

So I assume everyone who wants a Savanah to Augusta district is fine with the Columbia to Charleston district in SC?

[lfromnj]

Here's another pass at a fair Georgia map. Fairly similar to the one I made earlier, but taking into account lfromnj's concerns about crossing the Fall Line too often.

link





On reflection, I'm not sure that this 3rd district, which dips east to gobble up Walton County, is much better than my original 3rd, which dipped south to gobble up Warner Robbins instead. Both have ugly pincer shapes which only sort of make sense.

I suppose you could also send the 3rd north to Rome, but that seems even less desirable.

Working from your map's goal of 4 black districts. Why not just do this rotation?



You could also justify a North Cobb+ Milton seat if you wish as the rest of Cobb's population is equal to Cherokee + Forsyth.



It is Kemp +4 but it certainly voted for Biden.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, I agree with Sol and lfromnj here; Augusta-Savannah is certainly a Dem gerrymander. Not the worst gerrymander ever, but still far from the most optimum district out there.

Even if you want a competitive or Dem leaning district, you can do better. The best bet to get a competitive district in the area is to just go into the black belt after taking in Athens and Augusta.

This is the cleanest option and probably the one that respects COIs the most. The main issue is that there seems to be a cascading effect, where you:

a) End up with a weird snake leftovers district
b) End up with a GA-02 that has some sort of "appendix" or needlessly splits counties and cities
c) End up possibly destroing the VRA character of GA-02
d) End up with a "GA-02" that has to go into the Atlanta suburbs

And this is why I don't draw Augusta to Athens. Unlike Savanah to Augusta which is a pure D gerrymander one can justify the Athens pairing but honestly it creates way too much of a dominoes effect.

[lfromnj]

Working from your map's goal of 4 black districts. Why not just do this rotation?

Not a huge fan of putting Walton into the Black majority district. I was trying to go for a fairly CoI-based scheme for the Atlanta Black seats (4=DeKalb/Eastern suburbs, 5=Atlanta, 10=Southeastern suburbs 13=Western Suburbs) and Walton seems more of a piece with places like Barrow or Jackson County--i.e. full on exurbia rather than suburbia. That said, that isn't a bad map. I think we can both agree that the 3rd is going to a be a little off no matter what.

You could also justify a North Cobb+ Milton seat if you wish as the rest of Cobb's population is equal to Cherokee + Forsyth.



It is Kemp +4 but it certainly voted for Biden.

Either way is equally good IMO--I considered that but decided to go against it to avoid chopping Cobb twice. Paulding is kind of a weird area--it's most closely tied to Cobb, but that's mainly via 278--i.e. it's linked most closely to the parts of Cobb in the 13th.

IIRC the Black population is increasing in SW Paulding--maybe one of these days it'll become the next Henry or Douglas (in about 30 years lol).

Yeah either pairing is fine and the 2nd chop of Cobb is only like 10k people. Just wanted to point that out.  Did you change your 3rd district?