Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Sol]

Plus Scott has actually represented a good bit of that 4th already--it would be pretty easy for him to hop over even though it may not be where he lives.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interesting. So it's quite plausible for Scott to simply stay in the 4th and make way for McBath.

[CookieDamage]

Using 2020 results.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/96eef37c-98f1-4711-999b-a98fef906d71

[Spectator]

My take on what a 9R-5D map might look like.
A new AA majority seat has been created in Metro Atlanta. The 4th and 6th pull out of DeKalb, making way for the 7th, which leaves Gwinett for the most part. The 4th pulling out of DeKalb forces it to make that population in Gwinett instead. The rest of Gwinett is placed in a redrawn 10th that is safe Republican. In the process, the districts of McBath and Bourdeax are profoundly altered. The 6th should flip back Republican, with it gaining all of Forsyth and Hall, and the 10th should be unwinnable for Bourdeax, with almost 300k living outside of Gwinett in blood-red counties and the Gwinett part of seat excluding the vast bulk of the most Biden-voting parts.
Under these lines the 11th is 60-39 Trump; the 6th is 58-40 Trump; and the 10th is 58-41 Trump. The 14th is exactly the same except now it has all of Pickens and part of Gilmer. The 8th now runs from the Rochdale county line to Florida.
In southern GA, the 2nd has been redrawn to become less Democratic while still majority black. The Biden margin has been reduced from 13 points to 8.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0016a8b3-68cb-4a24-bf23-c836863b358a

The 6th would probably be fine, but there’s a small chance it would flip at the end of the decade, especially if Forsyth County were to continue the trend line it’s been on since 2012.

[Roll Roons]

My take on what a 9R-5D map might look like.
A new AA majority seat has been created in Metro Atlanta. The 4th and 6th pull out of DeKalb, making way for the 7th, which leaves Gwinett for the most part. The 4th pulling out of DeKalb forces it to make that population in Gwinett instead. The rest of Gwinett is placed in a redrawn 10th that is safe Republican. In the process, the districts of McBath and Bourdeax are profoundly altered. The 6th should flip back Republican, with it gaining all of Forsyth and Hall, and the 10th should be unwinnable for Bourdeax, with almost 300k living outside of Gwinett in blood-red counties and the Gwinett part of seat excluding the vast bulk of the most Biden-voting parts.
Under these lines the 11th is 60-39 Trump; the 6th is 58-40 Trump; and the 10th is 58-41 Trump. The 14th is exactly the same except now it has all of Pickens and part of Gilmer. The 8th now runs from the Rochdale county line to Florida.
In southern GA, the 2nd has been redrawn to become less Democratic while still majority black. The Biden margin has been reduced from 13 points to 8.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0016a8b3-68cb-4a24-bf23-c836863b358a

The 6th would probably be fine, but there’s a small chance it would flip at the end of the decade, especially if Forsyth County were to continue the trend line it’s been on since 2012.

I think there's even a chance that the 7th and 11th wouldn't be safe by the end of the decade. There is basically nowhere in the country where trends are worse for Republicans than the Atlanta metro.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

[Devils30]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

The thought of Ds undoing GOPmanders through the State Supreme Court didn't pass my mind, so thanks for bringing that up.
How feasible is that in practice, though?

[Skill and Chance]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

The thought of Ds undoing GOPmanders through the State Supreme Court didn't pass my mind, so thanks for bringing that up.
How feasible is that in practice, though?

Hard. All 9 are currently conservatives, and GA has non-partisan court elections which incumbents hardly ever lose.

[lfromnj]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

The thought of Ds undoing GOPmanders through the State Supreme Court didn't pass my mind, so thanks for bringing that up.
How feasible is that in practice, though?

Hard. All 9 are currently conservatives, and GA has non-partisan court elections which incumbents hardly ever lose.

I expect a serious effort probably flips the court by 2030 or 2032.

[patzer]

I decided to make a map focused on minimizing change, incumbent protection, and compactness.

Here's what I got. Data is 2020 presidential; closest seats are the 2nd (D +9.9) and the 12th (R +9.8).

[Skill and Chance]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

The thought of Ds undoing GOPmanders through the State Supreme Court didn't pass my mind, so thanks for bringing that up.
How feasible is that in practice, though?

Hard. All 9 are currently conservatives, and GA has non-partisan court elections which incumbents hardly ever lose.

I expect a serious effort probably flips the court by 2030 or 2032.

Maybe?  I think this would be a viable strategy in Texas where the justices run in explicitly partisan elections and they would be able to undo a gerrymander in less than a decade if the state moved their way like we saw in PA and NC (hardly a given now for TX), but non-partisan court elections make it much harder.  Think of the 3 Chiles appointees staying around until 2019 in Florida or the moderate-left bent of the Kentucky supreme court that continues to this day. 

[Devils30]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

The thought of Ds undoing GOPmanders through the State Supreme Court didn't pass my mind, so thanks for bringing that up.
How feasible is that in practice, though?

Hard. All 9 are currently conservatives, and GA has non-partisan court elections which incumbents hardly ever lose.

I expect a serious effort probably flips the court by 2030 or 2032.

Maybe?  I think this would be a viable strategy in Texas where the justices run in explicitly partisan elections and they would be able to undo a gerrymander in less than a decade if the state moved their way like we saw in PA and NC (hardly a given now for TX), but non-partisan court elections make it much harder.  Think of the 3 Chiles appointees staying around until 2019 in Florida or the moderate-left bent of the Kentucky supreme court that continues to this day. 

The best solution would be the Supreme Court just redoing the 2015 case and declaring all redistricting commissions unconstitutional. That way the Dems can do what they want to CA, WA, NJ, CO, VA and both sides are pretty much on even footing.

[Skill and Chance]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

The thought of Ds undoing GOPmanders through the State Supreme Court didn't pass my mind, so thanks for bringing that up.
How feasible is that in practice, though?

Hard. All 9 are currently conservatives, and GA has non-partisan court elections which incumbents hardly ever lose.

I expect a serious effort probably flips the court by 2030 or 2032.

Maybe?  I think this would be a viable strategy in Texas where the justices run in explicitly partisan elections and they would be able to undo a gerrymander in less than a decade if the state moved their way like we saw in PA and NC (hardly a given now for TX), but non-partisan court elections make it much harder.  Think of the 3 Chiles appointees staying around until 2019 in Florida or the moderate-left bent of the Kentucky supreme court that continues to this day. 

The best solution would be the Supreme Court just redoing the 2015 case and declaring all redistricting commissions unconstitutional. That way the Dems can do what they want to CA, WA, NJ, CO, VA and both sides are pretty much on even footing.

That would be an absolutely horrible precedent to lock in gerrymandering for generations, regardless of whom it would benefit in one particular cycle!  Thankfully, there's zero indication Roberts/Kav/ACB would go that far.

[Mr.Phips]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

The thought of Ds undoing GOPmanders through the State Supreme Court didn't pass my mind, so thanks for bringing that up.
How feasible is that in practice, though?

Hard. All 9 are currently conservatives, and GA has non-partisan court elections which incumbents hardly ever lose.

I expect a serious effort probably flips the court by 2030 or 2032.

Maybe?  I think this would be a viable strategy in Texas where the justices run in explicitly partisan elections and they would be able to undo a gerrymander in less than a decade if the state moved their way like we saw in PA and NC (hardly a given now for TX), but non-partisan court elections make it much harder.  Think of the 3 Chiles appointees staying around until 2019 in Florida or the moderate-left bent of the Kentucky supreme court that continues to this day. 

The best solution would be the Supreme Court just redoing the 2015 case and declaring all redistricting commissions unconstitutional. That way the Dems can do what they want to CA, WA, NJ, CO, VA and both sides are pretty much on even footing.

That would be an absolutely horrible precedent to lock in gerrymandering for generations, regardless of whom it would benefit in one particular cycle!  Thankfully, there's zero indication Roberts/Kav/ACB would go that far.

Yeah I don’t think Roberts and Kavanaugh would overturn precedent on the 2015 case.  Possible, but I don’t think it’s likely.

[beesley]

I decided to make a map focused on minimizing change, incumbent protection, and compactness.

Here's what I got. Data is 2020 presidential; closest seats are the 2nd (D +9.9) and the 12th (R +9..

Nice work.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I tried to make the most fairest State house map as possible and it ended up as 93 R - 87 D (2020 President) composition, not too bad tbh. I also allowed editing as well so that you can tweak it if you want.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f9f5a173-8085-41df-a72a-aae5bd06b86f

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I drew a pro-incumbent protected map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/efe2a017-575a-477e-bccb-e6365828fa6d

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair 14-district map of Georgia.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

85/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
70/100 on the Compactness Index
66/100 on County Splitting
90/100 on the Minority Representation index
23/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (eh)

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Georgia: 10R to 4D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Georgia: 8R to 6D

2018 Georgia Attorney General Election: 8R to 6D

2018 Georgia Gubernatorial Election: 8R to 6D

2018 Georgia Lieutenant Governor Election: 8R to 6D

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Georgia: 8R to 6D

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Georgia (special): 8R to 6D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Georgia: 8R to 6D

2021 U.S. Senate Election in Georgia (runoff): 8R to 6D

2021 U.S. Senate Election in Georgia (special runoff): 8R to 6D


Opinions?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I made the dummiestmander GOP map for GA. 

It's 11-3 R, but it would easily become a 8-6 D map by 2024.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d38bdc69-2b2c-4d27-bc20-8c98a0d7085e

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Made a 10-4 Dem Gerrymander map. 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ef9dbd5a-32be-482d-8424-299aae603456

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I created a fair 7-7 GA map using the new 2020 pop data. In this map they're 5 AA opportunity districts. I was able to put Cobb as single county district as well.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cb1dc2f1-51e7-4ccd-a24f-c342bc64a1b4

[patzer]

Tried to do an R gerrymander for Georgia. The easiest option seems to be altering Sanford Bishop's district, withdrawing it from its whiter areas and replacing them with black areas in the Atlanta area- and then using the extra breathing room to pull other red districts into Atlanta a bit, and ultimately pull the 7th out of the area and make it safe R.

All of the Dem districts here are majority-minority, the whitest of them being the 5th at 38% white and 6th at 40% white.



Eliminating the 7th does pose a risk for the Republicans though. Analyzing the red Atlanta-area districts in this map:

The 3rd was R +28.8 in 2016, and R +20.6 in 2020
The 7th was R +37.7 in 2016, and R +24.0 in 2020
The 10th was R +29.4 in 2016, and R +25.1 in 2020
The 11th was R +31.9 in 2016, and R +20.3 in 2020

The 3rd, 7th, and 11th would likely be safe for the next six years or so but it could become a dummymander by the end of the decade. But that would be the cost of trying to eliminate a D district- can't have it both ways.

(Note I explicitly did not remove any areas from the 14th given MTG's campaign against dividing her district up)

[Pink Panther]

Tried to do an R gerrymander for Georgia. The easiest option seems to be altering Sanford Bishop's district, withdrawing it from its whiter areas and replacing them with black areas in the Atlanta area- and then using the extra breathing room to pull other red districts into Atlanta a bit, and ultimately pull the 7th out of the area and make it safe R.

All of the Dem districts here are majority-minority, the whitest of them being the 5th at 38% white and 6th at 40% white.



Eliminating the 7th does pose a risk for the Republicans though. Analyzing the red Atlanta-area districts in this map:

The 3rd was R +28.8 in 2016, and R +20.6 in 2020
The 7th was R +37.7 in 2016, and R +24.0 in 2020
The 10th was R +29.4 in 2016, and R +25.1 in 2020
The 11th was R +31.9 in 2016, and R +20.3 in 2020

The 3rd, 7th, and 11th would likely be safe for the next six years or so but it could become a dummymander by the end of the decade. But that would be the cost of trying to eliminate a D district- can't have it both ways.

(Note I explicitly did not remove any areas from the 14th given MTG's campaign against dividing her district up)

GA-2 is a Racial Gerrymander

[patzer]

GA-2 is a Racial Gerrymander

Yep- I think racial gerrymanders are acceptable under the VRA?