Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[OBD]

Good point. I was a little apprehensive about splitting Houston but that district definitely makes sense.

[OBD]

On that note, I think this might be the ideal downstate alignment with Sol's new district. The only county split is the Houston County one, and the seats here are all pretty sensical and cohesive. The northern boundary of the 12th could potentially get adjusted to accommodate other districts, though.

[lfromnj]

On that note, I think this might be the ideal downstate alignment with Sol's new district. The only county split is the Houston County one, and the seats here are all pretty sensical and cohesive. The northern boundary of the 12th could potentially get adjusted to accommodate other districts, though.

Post the link of your map with those 4 districts for a template.

[OBD]

On that note, I think this might be the ideal downstate alignment with Sol's new district. The only county split is the Houston County one, and the seats here are all pretty sensical and cohesive. The northern boundary of the 12th could potentially get adjusted to accommodate other districts, though.

Post the link of your map with those 4 districts for a template.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/05e011cf-ac5d-4549-91e0-ab6c9b580b15

Here's the link!

[cvparty]

On that note, I think this might be the ideal downstate alignment with Sol's new district. The only county split is the Houston County one, and the seats here are all pretty sensical and cohesive. The northern boundary of the 12th could potentially get adjusted to accommodate other districts, though.

agreed. that’s almost exactly the same as my map, just a few diferences in counties between 1-8-12. also just a reminder that your map uses 2016 numbers, so 2, 8, and 12 are going to have to expand considerably with the 2020 census count

[OBD]

On that note, I think this might be the ideal downstate alignment with Sol's new district. The only county split is the Houston County one, and the seats here are all pretty sensical and cohesive. The northern boundary of the 12th could potentially get adjusted to accommodate other districts, though.

agreed. that’s almost exactly the same as my map, just a few diferences in counties between 1-8-12. also just a reminder that your map uses 2016 numbers, so 2, 8, and 12 are going to have to expand considerably with the 2020 census count

Yeah, obviously the calculus with county split-less maps is going to change once the new census maps come out.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is everyone avoiding drawing this district (or something comparable) for some reason? It's compact, satisfies most people's redistricting criteria, etc.



Satisfies the VRA quite well, and is majority-Black to boot.

I cannot abide by the split of Houston County. It's not a very terrible thing to do, but one can make a better 2nd for very low price.

[bagelman]

The trouble with an Augusta-Savannah district is that it's a bad CoI. Savannah is a pretty obvious fit with the other Sea Islands counties and other parts of Lower Coastal Plain. Meanwhile, Augusta is a much further inland fall line city in the vein of Macon. You can see this in the map of Georgia Regional Commissions:



That's ignoring the fact that such a district has to exclude Columbia County (or something in the Savannah suburbs) which seems like a bad CoI. Columbia is deeply part of Metro Augusta and belongs in a seat with it. You're not really fitting all of Augusta in a district when a big chunk of its metro area can't fit in.

Here's a map of the Regional Commissions in DRA:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/73735362-33f4-4cc8-a603-3fd71438e5cf

[Cassandra]

Building on the above division of southern georgia, I made a map for the entire state. This is my first one of these so I'd love some feedback!

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4ba6e9ea-6860-4628-8219-73dcc035dadf



Stats

D1: 56R/41D, 63 white/29 black VAP
D2: 45R/53D, 47 white/46 black VAP
D3: 67R/30D, 72 white/21 black VAP
D4: 19R/78D, 32 white/53 black (9 hispanic, 6 asian) VAP
D5: 20R/77D, 33 white/58 black VAP
D6: 65R/32D, 8 black (9 hispanic, 7 asian) VAP
D7: 43R/53D, 44 white/24 black (19 hispanic, 12 asian) VAP
D8: 66R/31D, 64 white/28 black VAP
D9: 78R/19D, 82 white/5 black (10 hispanic, 2 asian) VAP
D10: 64R/33D, 71 white/20 black
D11: 49R/47D, 60 white/24 black (10 hispanic, 5 asian) VAP
D12: 57R/41D, 57 white/36 black VAP
D13: 64D/34R, 39 white/49 black (8 hispanic, 4 asian) VAP
D14: 73R/24D, 80 white/9 black (10 hispanic, 1 asian) VAP

5 majority-minority districts, two of which are majority black (and D13 is only 1 percentage point off). This comes out to an 8-6 map (Republican advantage) though Republicans will probably be competitive in D2 by the end of the decade and should be able to take D11 (Cobb) in a favorable environment.

[Sol]

Welcome to the redistrictingverse!

FYI your districts are a little too wide in terms of population deviation--ideally you try to get that number as close to 0 as possible, though it can be tough, especially in Georgia where there are dumb huge precincts. Personally I shoot for more like -/+1000.

DRA also has 2018 data, so you can use more up to date info.

[Cassandra]

Welcome to the redistrictingverse!

FYI your districts are a little too wide in terms of population deviation--ideally you try to get that number as close to 0 as possible, though it can be tough, especially in Georgia where there are dumb huge precincts. Personally I shoot for more like -/+1000.

DRA also has 2018 data, so you can use more up to date info.

That's good to know, thank you!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Welcome to the redistrictingverse!

FYI your districts are a little too wide in terms of population deviation--ideally you try to get that number as close to 0 as possible, though it can be tough, especially in Georgia where there are dumb huge precincts. Personally I shoot for more like -/+1000.

DRA also has 2018 data, so you can use more up to date info.

That's good to know, thank you!

You are allowed deviation up to 1% of the overall quota. The gap between largest and smallest district cannot exceed that.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Welcome to the redistrictingverse!

FYI your districts are a little too wide in terms of population deviation--ideally you try to get that number as close to 0 as possible, though it can be tough, especially in Georgia where there are dumb huge precincts. Personally I shoot for more like -/+1000.

DRA also has 2018 data, so you can use more up to date info.

That's good to know, thank you!

You are allowed deviation up to 1% of the overall quota. The gap between largest and smallest district cannot exceed that.

That's simply incorrect.
The Supreme Court decided in Karcher v. Daggett to overturn NJ's redistricting plan with a variance of only 0.7% for failing to adhere to one man, one vote and then adopted a plan with a variance of only 0.01%. Meanwhile in Tennant v. Jefferson County Commission the Supreme Court upheld a variance of 0.8% only because no other plan would satisfy the state's requirement of no county splits.
The clear precedent of the supreme court is that the state must adopt a plan with the smallest population variation possible unless there is an overriding interest such as requiring county integrity enshrined in state law, which is why the only state to have a congressional variance higher than 0.1% is West Virginia due to its constitutional requirement for whole counties.

[Former President tack50]

Not really a Congressional redistricting map, but I don't know where else to post this. Some have discusses MaineRuling GA for presidential elections, but here is a proposal that would make even more sense. Divide the state into 16 districts (1 per electoral vote).

I am not sure of the legality, but the VRA possibly would not apply to these presidential districts because these districts would not be Congressional districts?

Assuming the VRA indeed does not apply, the Republicans could leave Democrats with as little as 3 Electoral Votes (compared to somewhere around 7 with standard MaineRuling)

Here is a quick map that for example would cut Dems to only 3/16 EVs, and it probably isn't the greatest map anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cd1b3b23-044f-4ba2-9783-879ec2445e8a

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at the cleanest possible 3-11 GA map

[lfromnj]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/01/gerrymander-marjorie-taylor-greene-lose-seat/?utm_source=reddit.com

Lol,I do wonder if they try this to any degree(mostly futile due to the fact she's a carpetbagger)

[GALeftist]

Hypothetical map with no VRA. Maine Rule!

Thank God for LBJ.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/01/gerrymander-marjorie-taylor-greene-lose-seat/?utm_source=reddit.com

Lol,I do wonder if they try this to any degree(mostly futile due to the fact she's a carpetbagger)

I don’t see how, without giving democrats a new seat in a disgusting way. All of her FEC filing is actually out of district so even then She’d run in a red sage seat. If you lump her in with an incumbent she’ll primary and she will beat them. She’s a cancer and doesn’t deserve a seat in congress, but as long as there’s a Republican seat in north west Georgia she’s going to be in congress.

[Idaho Conservative]

The trouble with an Augusta-Savannah district is that it's a bad CoI. Savannah is a pretty obvious fit with the other Sea Islands counties and other parts of Lower Coastal Plain. Meanwhile, Augusta is a much further inland fall line city in the vein of Macon. You can see this in the map of Georgia Regional Commissions:



That's ignoring the fact that such a district has to exclude Columbia County (or something in the Savannah suburbs) which seems like a bad CoI. Columbia is deeply part of Metro Augusta and belongs in a seat with it. You're not really fitting all of Augusta in a district when a big chunk of its metro area can't fit in.

Here's a map of the Regional Commissions in DRA:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/73735362-33f4-4cc8-a603-3fd71438e5cf

Now THAT would make a fine congressional map

[Idaho Conservative]

Hypothetical map with no VRA. Maine Rule!

giving the Dems a 3rd seat would really help it last the decade

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/01/gerrymander-marjorie-taylor-greene-lose-seat/?utm_source=reddit.com

Lol,I do wonder if they try this to any degree(mostly futile due to the fact she's a carpetbagger)

I don’t see how, without giving democrats a new seat in a disgusting way. All of her FEC filing is actually out of district so even then She’d run in a red sage seat. If you lump her in with an incumbent she’ll primary and she will beat them. She’s a cancer and doesn’t deserve a seat in congress, but as long as there’s a Republican seat in north west Georgia she’s going to be in congress.

Even if it worked, it'd just increase the odds that she'd run for Senate and create an even bigger problem for Republicans.

[WIResident]

I drew up a map of Georgia. It is similar to the current map but creates a new VRA district in the Atlanta area. It leaves the 7th district as a competitive one in the Northern suburbs which the GOP is unlikely to do when they draw the maps.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/29867f42-7b26-401d-9d4a-72b9fe266b80

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/01/gerrymander-marjorie-taylor-greene-lose-seat/?utm_source=reddit.com

Lol,I do wonder if they try this to any degree(mostly futile due to the fact she's a carpetbagger)

I don’t see how, without giving democrats a new seat in a disgusting way. All of her FEC filing is actually out of district so even then She’d run in a red sage seat. If you lump her in with an incumbent she’ll primary and she will beat them. She’s a cancer and doesn’t deserve a seat in congress, but as long as there’s a Republican seat in north west Georgia she’s going to be in congress.

Even if it worked, it'd just increase the odds that she'd run for Senate and create an even bigger problem for Republicans.

Yeah.Trying to gerrymander out MTG is just not worth it.

[Alcibiades]

10-4 map with 2020 numbers included

I know there’s some debate as to whether GA-02 will necessarily have to be preserved as a Safe D VRA seat, but this map seems to pretty egregiously crack the rural/non-Atlanta black population.

[Torie]

I decided to give an uninvited "lecture" on RRH, I thought perhaps, however delusional, some might be interested in reading if here. So below is my copy and paste of what I posted.

A poster the other day suggested that the Georgia “Pubmanderers” draw 4 black CD’s in the Atlanta area, and dismantle the rural black SW corner CD. I thought I would test that suggestion out. The Atlanta part of the equation works out quite well, and may even hold up for a whole decade – maybe. The second prong of the equation, the Pub snatch of the SW corner CD, however does not. It does not because although it can be drawn, its lines would be illegal, and tossed by the courts, and it is not a particularly close case in my opinion. Below explains the basis for my opinion.

The first step is how many CD’s need to be performing black, before the VRA no longer mandates additional minority performing CD’s. If it is only 4 CD’s, then the SW corner CD can be dismantled, and the plan fully executed. If it is 5 CD’s, then the VRA is still in play to police the CD lines. The answer turns out to be 5, not 4 CD. Blacks are about a third of the population of Georgia now. Thus, out of the 14 CD’s, under the VRA their allocatable share of the 14 CD’s is 14/3 or about 4.7 CD’s, which must be rounded up to 5 CD’s, if 5 “compact” CD’s can be drawn that are 50% BCVAP. In point of fact, they can (particularly when the racial percentages in Georgia are updated from the DRA figures which are circa 2015).  And yes, one of the 5 CD’s is the rural SW corner CD; like this, nice and compact:

https://i.imgur.com/uMuXm9O.png

So, the map the Pub gerrymanderers’ may want (the map to the right):

https://i.imgur.com/rHHHwCY.png

is illegal under the VRA.

And thus, they will need to draw the map to the right above, and even with that map, if the SW corner CD were not a performing black CD, its lines had better not be gerrymandered in any way, to wit, where there are reasonable choices of adjacent territory to take in, one always chooses the more black, and more Democratic territory, which is what I did. Trump 2016 still carried it by a couple of points, but Trump 2020 probably lost it by about the same margin. If still not performing, arguably one might need to chop in to Macon, or duplicate the lines that I drew (the first map that I linked above) that get the CD up to 50% BCVAP. Trump 2016 lost that iteration of the SW corner CD by 10.5% by the way.

I have seen a number of maps drawn on RRH that I think are very vulnerable to being struck down under the VRA. If one is going to gerrymander in a way that puts in play minority voters to their detriment, the VRA’s byzantine rules need to thoroughly mastered on a very granular level.