Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Here is a fairly reliable 8-7 GA map I made based on the 2018 Governor numbers.



There are 4 minority majority districts. 5 (69.2%), 7 (63.2%), 10 (59.2%), and 2 (51.6%).

• District 1 - Abrams 11.2
• District 2 - Abrams 8.1
• District 3 - Kemp 38.6
• District 4 - Kemp 30.6
• District 5 - Abrams 51.6
• District 6 - Abrams 10
• District 7 - Abrams 70.8 (Most of the city of Atlanta)
• District 8 - Abrams 11.3
• District 9 - Abrams 12
• District 10 - Abrams 37.9
• District 11 - Kemp 33.4
• District 12 - Kemp 53
• District 13 - Kemp 41
• District 14 - Kemp 53.3

This is a pretty good fair map. Not completely agreeable in everything but quite good in reflecting the statewide composition while also keeping things clean and compact and respecting county lines.

Tbh I wasn’t trying to make a fair map, but rather a sensible dem gerrymander. How could it be improved?

I think the border between 1 and 4 could be straightened. 13 and 14 could also be changed, but I have doubts that it could be improved very much, and I kind of feel this is the most compact realistic arrangement. I haven't much to complain about the shapes of 10, 11, and 13.

The 1st only contains 1 county split. You can actually make it have 0 county splits but that makes it a lot less compact and the county added on only has two roads connecting it with the rest of the district. 11th is interesting as it contains Athens and Gainesville and a lot of the far edge suburbs of Georgia that if the metro keeps growing it likely will be a swing district by the end of the decade

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Here's an ATL highlight
 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is a fairly reliable 8-7 GA map I made based on the 2018 Governor numbers.



There are 4 minority majority districts. 5 (69.2%), 7 (63.2%), 10 (59.2%), and 2 (51.6%).

• District 1 - Abrams 11.2
• District 2 - Abrams 8.1
• District 3 - Kemp 38.6
• District 4 - Kemp 30.6
• District 5 - Abrams 51.6
• District 6 - Abrams 10
• District 7 - Abrams 70.8 (Most of the city of Atlanta)
• District 8 - Abrams 11.3
• District 9 - Abrams 12
• District 10 - Abrams 37.9
• District 11 - Kemp 33.4
• District 12 - Kemp 53
• District 13 - Kemp 41
• District 14 - Kemp 53.3

This is a pretty good fair map. Not completely agreeable in everything but quite good in reflecting the statewide composition while also keeping things clean and compact and respecting county lines.

Tbh I wasn’t trying to make a fair map, but rather a sensible dem gerrymander. How could it be improved?

I think the border between 1 and 4 could be straightened. 13 and 14 could also be changed, but I have doubts that it could be improved very much, and I kind of feel this is the most compact realistic arrangement. I haven't much to complain about the shapes of 10, 11, and 13.

The 1st only contains 1 county split. You can actually make it have 0 county splits but that makes it a lot less compact and the county added on only has two roads connecting it with the rest of the district. 11th is interesting as it contains Athens and Gainesville and a lot of the far edge suburbs of Georgia that if the metro keeps growing it likely will be a swing district by the end of the decade

Oh I don't doubt that the 1st splits barely any counties. I just thought that adding Statesboro and giving up part of the Black Belt would just help with aestetics.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Here is a fairly reliable 8-7 GA map I made based on the 2018 Governor numbers.



There are 4 minority majority districts. 5 (69.2%), 7 (63.2%), 10 (59.2%), and 2 (51.6%).

• District 1 - Abrams 11.2
• District 2 - Abrams 8.1
• District 3 - Kemp 38.6
• District 4 - Kemp 30.6
• District 5 - Abrams 51.6
• District 6 - Abrams 10
• District 7 - Abrams 70.8 (Most of the city of Atlanta)
• District 8 - Abrams 11.3
• District 9 - Abrams 12
• District 10 - Abrams 37.9
• District 11 - Kemp 33.4
• District 12 - Kemp 53
• District 13 - Kemp 41
• District 14 - Kemp 53.3

This is a pretty good fair map. Not completely agreeable in everything but quite good in reflecting the statewide composition while also keeping things clean and compact and respecting county lines.

Tbh I wasn’t trying to make a fair map, but rather a sensible dem gerrymander. How could it be improved?

I think the border between 1 and 4 could be straightened. 13 and 14 could also be changed, but I have doubts that it could be improved very much, and I kind of feel this is the most compact realistic arrangement. I haven't much to complain about the shapes of 10, 11, and 13.

The 1st only contains 1 county split. You can actually make it have 0 county splits but that makes it a lot less compact and the county added on only has two roads connecting it with the rest of the district. 11th is interesting as it contains Athens and Gainesville and a lot of the far edge suburbs of Georgia that if the metro keeps growing it likely will be a swing district by the end of the decade

Oh I don't doubt that the 1st splits barely any counties. I just thought that adding Statesboro and giving up part of the Black Belt would just help with aestetics.

Yea I’d rather have Statesboro in it. But the issue is it’s too populous compared to the other counties. Adding Statesboro makes the map look kinda worse as you have to take away a lot of counties. It also makes it less democratic as much of the states given up are in the black belt

[Former President tack50]

My take on a fair map:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d35e4fd1-e11f-477b-b1c4-b83cf73fd195

GA-01 (Coastal GA): Kemp+14, Trump+16, R+9
GA-02 (southwest VRA seat): Abrams+9, Clinton+8, D+4 (51% black)
GA-03 (west Atlanta exurbs): Kemp+27, Trump+31, R+17
GA-04 (DeKalb County, VRA seat): Abrams+68, Clinton+64, D+29 (56% black)
GA-05 (Atlanta / South Fulton, VRA seat): Abrams+66, Clinton+63, D+28 (57% black)
GA-06 (Cobb County): Abrams+9, Clinton+2, R+4
GA-07 (most of Gwinett County): Abrams+15, Clinton+7, R+2 (38% white, 31% black, 21% Hispanic, 11% Asian)
GA-08 (South central GA): Kemp+33, Trump+35, R+16
GA-09 (Northeast GA): Kemp+61, Trump+61, R+32
GA-10 (Athens & Augusta): Kemp+9, Trump+9, R+6
GA-11 (Forsyth, North Fulton & parts of Cherokee and Gwinnett): Kemp+17, Trump+23, R+17
GA-12 (East Central GA): Kemp+31, Trump+29, R+15
GA-13 (South Atlanta suburbs, VRA seat): Abrams+33, Clinton+24, D+10 (54% black)
GA-14 (Northwest GA): Kemp+50, Trump+52, R+28

Overall this should be a fairly simple 8R-6D map, which seems like the fair partisan number to me. District 10 is winnable in a big wave by Dems at only Trump+9, Kemp+9 but it is a very hard lift and  it is not trending in either direction.

District 11 starts as completely unwinnable by Dems. Theoretically trends should make it closer and closer, but I think it would almost certainly remain R for the entire decade

[Continential]

My first DRA Map, with the election dataset being the 2018 gubernatorial Datasets and when I found out about that, I didn't feel like redoing the map because of the 2018 Voting Age/Census Datasets changed how many people were in the map and I worked on this for around a week.

Districts
District 1 42.60% 56.50%
District 2 49.12% 50.35%
District 3 36.01% 63.01%
District 4 79.46% 19.86%
District 5 87.12% 12.08%
District 6 47.67% 50.79%   
District 7 48.52% 50.16%
District 8 39.31% 60.05%   
District 9 20.72% 78.21%   
District 10 39.06% 60.07%   
District 11 42.11% 56.53%   
District 12 41.58% 57.70%
District 13 75.86% 23.51%   
District 14 24.26% 74.75%   

[Mr.Phips]

How on earth is the 2nd not VRA required?

It is as its 52% black.

[Tintrlvr]

Here is a fairly reliable 8-7 GA map I made based on the 2018 Governor numbers.



There are 4 minority majority districts. 5 (69.2%), 7 (63.2%), 10 (59.2%), and 2 (51.6%).

• District 1 - Abrams 11.2
• District 2 - Abrams 8.1
• District 3 - Kemp 38.6
• District 4 - Kemp 30.6
• District 5 - Abrams 51.6
• District 6 - Abrams 10
• District 7 - Abrams 70.8 (Most of the city of Atlanta)
• District 8 - Abrams 11.3
• District 9 - Abrams 12
• District 10 - Abrams 37.9
• District 11 - Kemp 33.4
• District 12 - Kemp 53
• District 13 - Kemp 41
• District 14 - Kemp 53.3

This is a pretty good fair map. Not completely agreeable in everything but quite good in reflecting the statewide composition while also keeping things clean and compact and respecting county lines.

Tbh I wasn’t trying to make a fair map, but rather a sensible dem gerrymander. How could it be improved?

You can definitely create another Dem seat if you combine Athens with the right parts of the Atlanta metro. Four majority black seats in the Atlanta metro is also very possible without going crazy with the lines (involves more splitting of the city of Atlanta, but that's in my mind not really a big deal).

[Stuart98]

-SNIP-

Splitting Atlanta five ways is egregious, a good map would split Atlanta no more than once

Redrew Atlanta


New 6th would only be Lean D in 2022 (was Kemp +2 in 2018); I expect it would be Likely D at worst for the rest of the decade. New 10th is majority Black, making for 4 majority black districts in metro Atlanta and 5 statewide.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So I've been playing around with this map and I wanted to see if I could make a sensible looking map with the following criteria

• 7 safe enough Democratic seats in the Atlanta Metro
• 2 minimum African American seats in the Atlanta Metro
• 1 seat for the entire city of Atlanta
• Have Athens be in a democratic district

It's very easy to make a map with two of these requirements, but I thought all three might pose a challenge. For this I used the 2018 Gubernatorial election. It took a bit of work but I came up with this map




District 9 and 7 are the two majority African-American. Districts 2 and 6 are Minority Majority, and Districts 1 and 5 are just barely majority white, which when you consider the local racial/political breakdown means that they are functionally majority minority districts. Also District 11 is just 54% white and contains the states largest share of asians. Its very likely be that Georgia could send seven minorities to congress.

• District 01 Abrams 11.4
• District 02 Abrams Abrams 8.3
• District 03 Kemp 38.3
• District 04 Kemp 31.3
• District 05 Abrams 12.6
• District 06 Abrams 15.5
• District 07 Abrams 30.8
• District 08 Abrams 10.7
• District 09 Abrams 63.5
• District 10 Abrams 15.2
• District 11 Abrams 10.3
• District 12 Kemp 51
• District 13 Kemp 44.8
• District 14 Kemp 52.6

[Idaho Conservative]

So I've been playing around with this map and I wanted to see if I could make a sensible looking map with the following criteria

• 7 safe enough Democratic seats in the Atlanta Metro
• 2 minimum African American seats in the Atlanta Metro
• 1 seat for the entire city of Atlanta
• Have Athens be in a democratic district

It's very easy to make a map with two of these requirements, but I thought all three might pose a challenge. For this I used the 2018 Gubernatorial election. It took a bit of work but I came up with this map




District 9 and 7 are the two majority African-American. Districts 2 and 6 are Minority Majority, and Districts 1 and 5 are just barely majority white, which when you consider the local racial/political breakdown means that they are functionally majority minority districts. Also District 11 is just 54% white and contains the states largest share of asians. Its very likely be that Georgia could send seven minorities to congress.

• District 01 Abrams 11.4
• District 02 Abrams Abrams 8.3
• District 03 Kemp 38.3
• District 04 Kemp 31.3
• District 05 Abrams 12.6
• District 06 Abrams 15.5
• District 07 Abrams 30.8
• District 08 Abrams 10.7
• District 09 Abrams 63.5
• District 10 Abrams 15.2
• District 11 Abrams 10.3
• District 12 Kemp 51
• District 13 Kemp 44.8
• District 14 Kemp 52.6

3 black seats are needed in ATL

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So I've been playing around with this map and I wanted to see if I could make a sensible looking map with the following criteria

• 7 safe enough Democratic seats in the Atlanta Metro
• 2 minimum African American seats in the Atlanta Metro
• 1 seat for the entire city of Atlanta
• Have Athens be in a democratic district

It's very easy to make a map with two of these requirements, but I thought all three might pose a challenge. For this I used the 2018 Gubernatorial election. It took a bit of work but I came up with this map




District 9 and 7 are the two majority African-American. Districts 2 and 6 are Minority Majority, and Districts 1 and 5 are just barely majority white, which when you consider the local racial/political breakdown means that they are functionally majority minority districts. Also District 11 is just 54% white and contains the states largest share of asians. Its very likely be that Georgia could send seven minorities to congress.

• District 01 Abrams 11.4
• District 02 Abrams Abrams 8.3
• District 03 Kemp 38.3
• District 04 Kemp 31.3
• District 05 Abrams 12.6
• District 06 Abrams 15.5
• District 07 Abrams 30.8
• District 08 Abrams 10.7
• District 09 Abrams 63.5
• District 10 Abrams 15.2
• District 11 Abrams 10.3
• District 12 Kemp 51
• District 13 Kemp 44.8
• District 14 Kemp 52.6

3 black seats are needed in ATL

The 6th is plurality black

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At the core of this map is four seats wholly within Fulton, Dekalb, Cobb, and Gwinnett. The southern part of Fulton couldn't be paired with Clayton as that would pack black voters, so instead the 5th is drawn into rural and exurban areas west, and the Clayton CD has to take in the rest of the rurals south of Coweta. 4, 5, 13, and 2 are all black seats; 7 is a coalition district with no clear majority or plurality for any group. 6 and 11 are majority-white but could elect a minority fairly easily. The 14th is a whole-county CD with a very neat shape. There are 7 Abrams districts and 7 Kemp districts. The 8th is the most competitive on 2018 governor numbers, and is even only 51% white and 42% black, but it also went to Kemp by 8 and is clearly Rep leaning, with a PVI of R+4. The 1st and 3rd sport a nice, clean mutual river boundaries. All 4 districts in Southern GA are whole-county.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/ca120f96-babc-44e7-8392-b7543d1d9019

[Stuart98]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

Especially a fair (proportional) map might well separate them. And CoI-wise, a district anchored in the rurals directly east of Metro Atlanta is better off with Columbia than with areas directly south not within other districts.
Pairing Richmond with the Black Belt or Savannah is a fine concept even from merely a CoI perspective.

[lfromnj]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

Especially a fair (proportional) map might well separate them. And CoI-wise, a district anchored in the rurals directly east of Metro Atlanta is better off with Columbia than with areas directly south not within other districts.
Pairing Richmond with the Black Belt or Savannah is a fine concept even from merely a CoI perspective.

No its not, Savanah is a clear Coastal region COI that fits perfectly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

Especially a fair (proportional) map might well separate them. And CoI-wise, a district anchored in the rurals directly east of Metro Atlanta is better off with Columbia than with areas directly south not within other districts.
Pairing Richmond with the Black Belt or Savannah is a fine concept even from merely a CoI perspective.

No its not, Savanah is a clear Coastal region COI that fits perfectly.

Well, I suppose a map only considering strict, non-race-related CoI only would very probably pair Savannah with the coast, but other things can impact a CoI map. Savannah+Augusta creates at least a minority influence district, while Savannah+coast is too white to count as one.
A CoI map in GA completely disregarding race, of all things, sounds questionable if you ask me.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a second fair map. And a similar map to the one I just made, in regards to overall principles. This time the north of Fulton is removed, not the south of it, with a lot of ripple effects. 6 is a leftover district taking in the rest of the 4 major metro counties. 5, 4, 13, and 2 are all black districts. I left Lee County out of GA-02. 12 has a "tail" which I don't like but I live with in order to have more whole-county CDs. Again, 7 Kemp and 7 Abrams districts. GA-06 went to Kemp by 16 so should be R for most of the decade, while GA-01 and GA-02 both sport Abrams 18 margins in high single digits and should be both Dem.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e3622dd1-543e-4685-9ed4-3ea4be162db3

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

I would argue they’re not at all a community of interest. The suburbs of Augusta and the city of Augusta are entirely different in politics, income, and racial identity. Augusta finds better with the black belt and Savannah, while the suburbs are closer to places like Gainesville

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

I would argue they’re not at all a community of interest. The suburbs of Augusta and the city of Augusta are entirely different in politics, income, and racial identity. Augusta finds better with the black belt and Savannah, while the suburbs are closer to places like Gainesville

Do you like the 10th and 1st on the second map?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

I would argue they’re not at all a community of interest. The suburbs of Augusta and the city of Augusta are entirely different in politics, income, and racial identity. Augusta finds better with the black belt and Savannah, while the suburbs are closer to places like Gainesville

Do you like the 10th and 1st on the second map?

Yea it looks pretty good. Personally I like having Huntsville with Savannah, but then you can’t have Statesboro. So it comes down to personal choice.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

I would argue they’re not at all a community of interest. The suburbs of Augusta and the city of Augusta are entirely different in politics, income, and racial identity. Augusta finds better with the black belt and Savannah, while the suburbs are closer to places like Gainesville

Do you like the 10th and 1st on the second map?

Yea it looks pretty good. Personally I like having Huntsville with Savannah, but then you can’t have Statesboro. So it comes down to personal choice.

Thoughts on the 8th in my first map?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

I would argue they’re not at all a community of interest. The suburbs of Augusta and the city of Augusta are entirely different in politics, income, and racial identity. Augusta finds better with the black belt and Savannah, while the suburbs are closer to places like Gainesville

Do you like the 10th and 1st on the second map?

Yea it looks pretty good. Personally I like having Huntsville with Savannah, but then you can’t have Statesboro. So it comes down to personal choice.

Thoughts on the 8th in my first map?

That was I thought was a little odd. Augusta should really be in a district along the Savannah River, either north or south

[lfromnj]

So I assume everyone who wants a Savanah to Augusta district is fine with the Columbia to Charleston district in SC?

[Sol]

Here's another pass at a fair Georgia map. Fairly similar to the one I made earlier, but taking into account lfromnj's concerns about crossing the Fall Line too often.

link





On reflection, I'm not sure that this 3rd district, which dips east to gobble up Walton County, is much better than my original 3rd, which dipped south to gobble up Warner Robbins instead. Both have ugly pincer shapes which only sort of make sense.

I suppose you could also send the 3rd north to Rome, but that seems even less desirable.