Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Sol]

If you want a Savannah to Augusta district because you care about proportionality, why not draw an Athens to Augusta instead? More defensible on CoI.

[Tintrlvr]

So I assume everyone who wants a Savanah to Augusta district is fine with the Columbia to Charleston district in SC?

You can fit all of Savannah and Augusta in the same district. Not true of Charleston and Columbia.

[Sol]

The trouble with an Augusta-Savannah district is that it's a bad CoI. Savannah is a pretty obvious fit with the other Sea Islands counties and other parts of Lower Coastal Plain. Meanwhile, Augusta is a much further inland fall line city in the vein of Macon. You can see this in the map of Georgia Regional Commissions:



That's ignoring the fact that such a district has to exclude Columbia County (or something in the Savannah suburbs) which seems like a bad CoI. Columbia is deeply part of Metro Augusta and belongs in a seat with it. You're not really fitting all of Augusta in a district when a big chunk of its metro area can't fit in.

[Brittain33]

The best solution is to combine Savannah with Augusta, but achieve a true COI by also adding Dekalb as in 1992.

[lfromnj]

Here's another pass at a fair Georgia map. Fairly similar to the one I made earlier, but taking into account lfromnj's concerns about crossing the Fall Line too often.

link





On reflection, I'm not sure that this 3rd district, which dips east to gobble up Walton County, is much better than my original 3rd, which dipped south to gobble up Warner Robbins instead. Both have ugly pincer shapes which only sort of make sense.

I suppose you could also send the 3rd north to Rome, but that seems even less desirable.

Working from your map's goal of 4 black districts. Why not just do this rotation?



You could also justify a North Cobb+ Milton seat if you wish as the rest of Cobb's population is equal to Cherokee + Forsyth.



It is Kemp +4 but it certainly voted for Biden.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, I agree with Sol and lfromnj here; Augusta-Savannah is certainly a Dem gerrymander. Not the worst gerrymander ever, but still far from the most optimum district out there.

Even if you want a competitive or Dem leaning district, you can do better. The best bet to get a competitive district in the area is to just go into the black belt after taking in Athens and Augusta.

This is the cleanest option and probably the one that respects COIs the most. The main issue is that there seems to be a cascading effect, where you:

a) End up with a weird snake leftovers district
b) End up with a GA-02 that has some sort of "appendix" or needlessly splits counties and cities
c) End up possibly destroing the VRA character of GA-02
d) End up with a "GA-02" that has to go into the Atlanta suburbs

Here are maps for each of the 3 options:

Option 1a:



District 1 here is Abrams+1, Trump+0, R+2
District 2 is Abrams+8, Clinton+8, D+4 (51% black)

The other 3 districts are Safe R

Option 1b:



District 1 is Abrams+1, Clinton+0, R+2
District 2 is Abrams+8, Clinton+7, D+3
District 3 is Kemp+10, Trump+11, R+7

Districts 4 and 5 are Safe R

Option 1c



Here districts 1, 3 and 4 are unchanged. However now district 2, while still black plurality by population (albeit 50% white by CVAP) is now Kemp+2, Trump+3 and R+2; so it won't elect a black Democrat (the district would be super inelastic I imagine)



District 2 is Abrams+14, Clinton+9, D+3
District 5 is Kemp+8, Trump+9, R+5 (still only white plurality by population, though a majority by CVAP)

Districts 1, 3 and 4 are unchanged.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, I agree with Sol and lfromnj here; Augusta-Savannah is certainly a Dem gerrymander. Not the worst gerrymander ever, but still far from the most optimum district out there.

Even if you want a competitive or Dem leaning district, you can do better. The best bet to get a competitive district in the area is to just go into the black belt after taking in Athens and Augusta.

This is the cleanest option and probably the one that respects COIs the most. The main issue is that there seems to be a cascading effect, where you:

a) End up with a weird snake leftovers district
b) End up with a GA-02 that has some sort of "appendix" or needlessly splits counties and cities
c) End up possibly destroing the VRA character of GA-02
d) End up with a "GA-02" that has to go into the Atlanta suburbs

And this is why I don't draw Augusta to Athens. Unlike Savanah to Augusta which is a pure D gerrymander one can justify the Athens pairing but honestly it creates way too much of a dominoes effect.

[Sol]

Working from your map's goal of 4 black districts. Why not just do this rotation?

Not a huge fan of putting Walton into the Black majority district. I was trying to go for a fairly CoI-based scheme for the Atlanta Black seats (4=DeKalb/Eastern suburbs, 5=Atlanta, 10=Southeastern suburbs 13=Western Suburbs) and Walton seems more of a piece with places like Barrow or Jackson County--i.e. full on exurbia rather than suburbia. That said, that isn't a bad map. I think we can both agree that the 3rd is going to a be a little off no matter what.

You could also justify a North Cobb+ Milton seat if you wish as the rest of Cobb's population is equal to Cherokee + Forsyth.



It is Kemp +4 but it certainly voted for Biden.

Either way is equally good IMO--I considered that but decided to go against it to avoid chopping Cobb twice. Paulding is kind of a weird area--it's most closely tied to Cobb, but that's mainly via 278--i.e. it's linked most closely to the parts of Cobb in the 13th.

IIRC the Black population is increasing in SW Paulding--maybe one of these days it'll become the next Henry or Douglas (in about 30 years lol).

[lfromnj]

Working from your map's goal of 4 black districts. Why not just do this rotation?

Not a huge fan of putting Walton into the Black majority district. I was trying to go for a fairly CoI-based scheme for the Atlanta Black seats (4=DeKalb/Eastern suburbs, 5=Atlanta, 10=Southeastern suburbs 13=Western Suburbs) and Walton seems more of a piece with places like Barrow or Jackson County--i.e. full on exurbia rather than suburbia. That said, that isn't a bad map. I think we can both agree that the 3rd is going to a be a little off no matter what.

You could also justify a North Cobb+ Milton seat if you wish as the rest of Cobb's population is equal to Cherokee + Forsyth.



It is Kemp +4 but it certainly voted for Biden.

Either way is equally good IMO--I considered that but decided to go against it to avoid chopping Cobb twice. Paulding is kind of a weird area--it's most closely tied to Cobb, but that's mainly via 278--i.e. it's linked most closely to the parts of Cobb in the 13th.

IIRC the Black population is increasing in SW Paulding--maybe one of these days it'll become the next Henry or Douglas (in about 30 years lol).

Yeah either pairing is fine and the 2nd chop of Cobb is only like 10k people. Just wanted to point that out.  Did you change your 3rd district?

[Sol]

Working from your map's goal of 4 black districts. Why not just do this rotation?

Not a huge fan of putting Walton into the Black majority district. I was trying to go for a fairly CoI-based scheme for the Atlanta Black seats (4=DeKalb/Eastern suburbs, 5=Atlanta, 10=Southeastern suburbs 13=Western Suburbs) and Walton seems more of a piece with places like Barrow or Jackson County--i.e. full on exurbia rather than suburbia. That said, that isn't a bad map. I think we can both agree that the 3rd is going to a be a little off no matter what.

You could also justify a North Cobb+ Milton seat if you wish as the rest of Cobb's population is equal to Cherokee + Forsyth.



It is Kemp +4 but it certainly voted for Biden.

Either way is equally good IMO--I considered that but decided to go against it to avoid chopping Cobb twice. Paulding is kind of a weird area--it's most closely tied to Cobb, but that's mainly via 278--i.e. it's linked most closely to the parts of Cobb in the 13th.

IIRC the Black population is increasing in SW Paulding--maybe one of these days it'll become the next Henry or Douglas (in about 30 years lol).

Yeah either pairing is fine and the 2nd chop of Cobb is only like 10k people. Just wanted to point that out.  Did you change your 3rd district?

I haven't changed it in the map I posted, since I don't want to confuse people.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If you want a Savannah to Augusta district because you care about proportionality, why not draw an Athens to Augusta instead? More defensible on CoI.

Athens to Augusta doesn't work as well because there are a ton of R-leaning counties you have to take in if you add Augusta's suburbs*+suburban Augusta is already about 1/3 larger than Athens and more Republican/roughly as Republican than Athens is Democratic. Lots of heavily white counties and lots of heavily R areas that undermine both proportionality and undermine minority influence. And Athens is also quite white liberal, which further harms minority influence, just not as much as having white Rs.
*=and if you take only the minimum, then you give the 9th a nasty, non-compact tail

I just don't think keeping Augusta in with its suburbs is generally a worthy choice given how it harms all the other districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The best solution is to combine Savannah with Augusta, but achieve a true COI by also adding Dekalb as in 1992.

This doesn't work if you want a CD wholy contained within Dekalb, but even if you ditch that, the Atlanta exurbs are more populated than they were in 1992.
How many people would you guess lived in the boundaries of my GA-13 on the second map in 1992?

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

382,746 people
187,920 in Clayton
67,493 in Henry
58,786 in Rockdale
44,632 in Newton
15,642 in Butts
8,273 in Jasper

[lfromnj]

Why is there a need for 6 black districts in Georgia?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is there a need for 6 black districts in Georgia?

A minority influence seat isn't a full "black seat", it's just a mechanism by which blacks in outstate GA can still get representation - a "half-black seat". It also means that you are more free to have better lines in Metro Atlanta; it produces a better 9th and oftentimes a better 10th; and it also helps with county integrity as well as compactness in most instances, as well as CoI (partially by avoiding almost completely a massively stretchy 5th like on one of Tack's maps). Southern Georgia is too large for 3 full seats yet too small for 4. Unless one reworks the shape of the 2nd (something I am not very comfortable with especially in this scenario, because that further harms CoI, particularly in the race department), then the best option by far is having Augusta be separated from its suburbs.
Having Augusta be with its suburbs is no sacred cow. It's something one can and should avoid doing if that means that the map as a whole is better off.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So here's a thought experiment. Try to make a completely race-neutral map and as much of a non-partisan map as possible of Georgia. Regardless of whatever you think is the right way to districts - if it takes into account race in any way or partisanship, try to bin it for that map alone.
What map would you generate?

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::b6fab0e1-145a-4a48-94ec-42eef42dcdca

Here's my race/partisanship-free map, which only has 3 non-forced county splits for population equality. Some districts are shaped a little oddly to keep counties whole, but otherwise it's a pretty nice-looking map. It also keeps Atlanta and most other cities whole.

In terms of partisanship, this is an 8 Trump - 6 Clinton map, with the 10th district flipping in 2018 and 2020.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::b6fab0e1-145a-4a48-94ec-42eef42dcdca

Here's my race/partisanship-free map, which only has 3 non-forced county splits for population equality. Some districts are shaped a little oddly to keep counties whole, but otherwise it's a pretty nice-looking map. It also keeps Atlanta and most other cities whole.

In terms of partisanship, this is an 8 Trump - 6 Clinton map, with the 10th district flipping in 2018 and 2020.

Can't tell but looks like you split Oconee county and Athens.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Dealing with ATL can be incredibly tricky. I get how awkward things can be, especially once you have to deal with the NW corner of the state, but I really hate not splitting DeKalb. I really don't see the DeKalb/Fulton line as relevant. Both sides are thoroughly urban Atlanta, it makes things uncompact, and quite frankly, there are more relevant divides in the area (the Atlanta/Sandy Springs line, the Perimeter, the Chattahoochee River, etc.) Of course, dealing with this while keeping Cobb intact is tricky but I thing it should be done.

Second, I really see Fayette, Clayton, Henry, and Spalding as a COI. I really wouldn't split these to pair with Rockdale/Newton and/or Douglass/South Fulton.

Also, if we're being race-blind, cutting up Macon-Warner Robbins and Columbus just to pair things with Albany is a really weird choice.

Just my two cents.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::b6fab0e1-145a-4a48-94ec-42eef42dcdca

Here's my race/partisanship-free map, which only has 3 non-forced county splits for population equality. Some districts are shaped a little oddly to keep counties whole, but otherwise it's a pretty nice-looking map. It also keeps Atlanta and most other cities whole.

In terms of partisanship, this is an 8 Trump - 6 Clinton map, with the 10th district flipping in 2018 and 2020.

Can't tell but looks like you split Oconee county and Athens.

Is that a COI? I mainly did that for county integrity.

[Adam Griffin]

Not a huge fan of putting Walton into the Black majority district.

I am. The white residents of Walton County refer to their county seat (Monroe) as "Monkeyrow". Seems like a fitting "punishment" (from their perspective).

[Sol]

Not a huge fan of putting Walton into the Black majority district.

I am. The white residents of Walton County refer to their county seat (Monroe) as "Monkeyrow". Seems like a fitting "punishment" (from their perspective).

Hahaha, well in that case Walton County and Rockdale/Newton are very obvious and unseverable CoI.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b17f0e6b-85c8-4bb6-a402-572df29fa52a

Here's my answer to Blairite's concerns. It's a little snippier with counties and the 3rd district is kind of cursed, but it does do the South Atlanta COI Blairite suggested and keeps most districts pretty neat. If the map-drawers pushed the 13th north, it would be VRA compliant. 

As for partisanship, it's a 5D-7R-2S map, with the 11th and 2nd districts (Trump+0.4 and Trump+5 respectively) as the swing seats.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

There are some areas where I'd want to fine-tune this (particularly around the Fulton/DeKalb/Gwinnett tripoint and the placement of Athens) but I'd propose something like this as a fix to the GA-03 problem in OBD's otherwise excellent updated map:

[Sol]

Why is everyone avoiding drawing this district (or something comparable) for some reason? It's compact, satisfies most people's redistricting criteria, etc.



Satisfies the VRA quite well, and is majority-Black to boot.

[Sol]

Plus it puts Warner Robbins in with Macon, Lee County with Albany, and keeps united the metropolitan core of Columbus!