Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MO is safe Republican Parson is up by 9 pts, Trump will win MO by 9 pts as Romney did

[pbrower2a]

PPP state polls, July 23-24

NC: Biden 49, Trump 46 (884 RV)
Approve 47, Disapprove 50


MT: Trump 50, Biden 45 (917 RV)
Approve 49, Disapprove 45


IA: Trump 48, Biden 47 (1118 RV)
Approve 47, Disapprove 49


GA: Biden 46, Trump 45 (722 RV)
Approve 44, Disapprove 49


CO: Biden 54, Trump 41 (891 RV)
Approve 39, Disapprove 57


AK: Trump 50, Biden 44 (885 RV)
Approve 48, Disapprove 46


ME: Biden 53, Trump 42 (962 RV)
Approve 41, Disapprove 55

Washington: SurveyUSA, July 22-27, 534 LV

Approve 25
Disapprove 69

Biden 62, Trump 28

Has any state shown such a horrid result for the President?

My guess is that people in Washington state are watching events in Portland, which is just across the Columbia River... and wondering whether the Presidents "Trump-Trump Macoutes" could be infesting Seattle soon.

 

Biden - 51
Trump -33

Trump Approval
Approve - 39
Disapprove - 61

500 LV, July 7-12
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/nearly-seven-in-ten-new-jersey-voters-support-marijuana-legalization-ballot-measure-poll-finds/

Basically ratifying what I already have.

Seat-of-the-pants handicapping for the Presidency:

AZ Biden 70 Trump 30
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 60 Trump 40
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Alaska, Missouri, and Montana:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30

Michigan and Arizona would be in the categories that they were in if one averages the last two or three polls. The spectacular disapproval of Trump in Florida last week may have been an outlier...  but 52% disapproval from registered voters? Still hideous, and hurricane season could be perfect for spreading COVID-19 with all the people in shelters or scared to go into them, having to choose between a hurricane and a potentially-lethal respiratory disease.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher






[/quote]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is safe R, so is MO

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), July 27-28, 1115 adults including 947 RV

Adults:

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-1)

Biden 43 (nc), Trump 36 (+2)

RV:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 58 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

Biden 47 (+1), Trump 38 (nc)

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Back to the mid 40s Hahahaha

TeflonDon

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 26-28, 1500 adults including 1260 RV

Adults:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (-3)

Strongly approve 24 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-3)

Strongly approve 27 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Biden 49 (+1), Trump 40 (-1)

GCB: D 48 (+1), R 40 (nc)


Odd mix...Trump's approval rating improved, but Biden's lead widened.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 26-28, 1500 adults including 1260 RV

Adults:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (-3)

Strongly approve 24 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-3)

Strongly approve 27 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Biden 49 (+1), Trump 40 (-1)

GCB: D 48 (+1), R 40 (nc)


Odd mix...Trump's approval rating improved, but Biden's lead widened.

Battlegrounds are much much much tighter.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden only plus 6 in Rassy polls, not the huge 500 EC victory that is consistently projected. I knew it, Biden is still favored but this is gonna come down to WI, PA. We were always in RV land, now we are going to LV

The Dems should have nominated Bernie, whom wasnt scandaled, if the election is close.

Pelosi holding up stimulus bill is not the smart thing to do, and unemployment isnt gonna be extended past a yr either

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden only plus 6 in Rassy polls, not the huge 500 EC victory that is consistently projected. I knew it, Biden is still favored but this is gonna come down to WI, PA. We were always in RV land, now we are going to LV

The Dems should have nominated Bernie, whom wasnt scandaled, if the election is close.

Pelosi holding up stimulus bill is not the smart thing to do, and unemployment isnt gonna be extended past a yr either

Who projected 500 EVs? LOL.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Some PPP state polls (no presidential matchups included):


Arizona, July 21-22, 816 RV:

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Kelly 51, McSally 42


Maine, July 22-23, 561 RV:

Approve 42
Disapprove 55

Gideon 47, Collins 42


North Carolina, July 22-23, 939 RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Cunningham 48, Tillis 40

AZ Biden 65 Trump 35
FL Biden 95 Trump 5 -- note the huge change.
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Alaska, Missouri, and Montana:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30

Subtle category change for Arizona, as with Michigan in the FoX polls. The Gravis polls have weird numbers of approval for the match-up for Michigan...
 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[/quote]


This map projects 400 to 500 EC votes and the mods used the MSN polls in April, that were online polls to project a 400 to 500 EC vote victory.  TX, AZ and FL going D

It's a 278 EC vote map and always was Ha, Ha, Ha

[Inmate Trump]

This map projects 400 to 500 EC votes and the mods used the MSN polls in April, that were online polls to project a 400 to 500 EC vote victory.  TX, AZ and FL going D

It's a 278 EC vote map and always was Ha, Ha, Ha

That map is approval polls, not an election projection.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This map projects 400 to 500 EC votes and the mods used the MSN polls in April, that were online polls to project a 400 to 500 EC vote victory.  TX, AZ and FL going D

It's a 278 EC vote map and always was Ha, Ha, Ha

That map is approval polls, not an election projection.

I am not saying that Biden isnt gonna win, but Ds must expect that whatever happens in Nov, holding up a stimulus package thinking that unemployment is gonna go longer than 1 yr and getting 600 isnt gonna fly no matter what govt we have. We have a 25 T deficit.

[Inmate Trump]

This map projects 400 to 500 EC votes and the mods used the MSN polls in April, that were online polls to project a 400 to 500 EC vote victory.  TX, AZ and FL going D

It's a 278 EC vote map and always was Ha, Ha, Ha

That map is approval polls, not an election projection.

I am not saying that Biden isnt gonna win, but Ds must expect that whatever happens in Nov, holding up a stimulus package thinking that unemployment is gonna go longer than 1 yr and getting 600 isnt gonna fly no matter what govt we have. We have a 25 T deficit.

Ok.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Zogby Biden 44
Trump 40
Jorgenson 5
Hawkins 2%

Was 46 tied on June 1st

It makes sense now you go from 8 to 4 when you include 3rd party 278 LV here we come Not RV 13 pt FL QU leads

[pbrower2a]

Some PPP state polls (no presidential matchups included):


Arizona, July 21-22, 816 RV:

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Kelly 51, McSally 42


Maine, July 22-23, 561 RV:

Approve 42
Disapprove 55

Gideon 47, Collins 42


North Carolina, July 22-23, 939 RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Cunningham 48, Tillis 40

AZ Biden 65 Trump 35
FL Biden 95 Trump 5 -- note the huge change.
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Alaska, Missouri, and Montana:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30

Subtle category change for Arizona, as with Michigan in the FoX polls. The Gravis polls have weird numbers of approval for the match-up for Michigan...
 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

This map projects 400 to 500 EC votes and the mods used the MSN polls in April, that were online polls to project a 400 to 500 EC vote victory.  TX, AZ and FL going D

It's a 278 EC vote map and always was Ha, Ha, Ha

You are right about it being approval and disapproval polls.

Based on 2012 I could make the case that Trump will lose every state in which his disapproval is 52% or higher on Election Day. Trump is no better at cutting into disapproval than was Obama. Disapproval means giving up on the incumbent.

Approval may not win, but disapproval certainly loses.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can certainly see Biden picking up AZ, but the problem for the Ds as stated before that's not gonna fly is the 2 yr unemployment,  no one is gonna be sympathetic to 45 M that dont want to work and keep collecting 600 for the foreseeable future, the workforce, by Jan, 2021 is gonna have to get reincentivize to get back to work.

But, as I see it Biden wins 291 to 247 and 52 Senate seats, not the huge 10 pt polls we have seen in the past with Ds winning TX. MSNBC is making a huge mistake correlation between Covid 19. Issues and voting patterns like TX, that's why I turned it off

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, July 1-23, 1007 adults (1-month change)

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, July 25-28, 1160 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-4)

Yet independent voters now disapprove of Trump's job performance 64%-27%, even worse than July's 63%-30% split.

Biden 48 (nc), Trump 41 (+1)

Among swing-state voters included in the IBD/TIPP Poll, Biden leads Trump, 51%-36%. Those states classified as swing states based on 2016 results include Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

[Person Man]

Wonder who this and they are thinking Trump is doing to think he’s improving.

[anthonyjg]

Wonder who this and they are thinking Trump is doing to think he’s improving.

Never overestimate the attention span of the American voter. That said, some of it is just noise.

[woodley park]

Mostly noise. Trump did manage to pretend to take COVID seriously for a few days, but his return to pseudo-science, the death of Herman Cain, the Q2 economic figures, the call to postpone the election, and his spineless call with Putin will likely pull him back down again.

[Person Man]

Mostly noise. Trump did manage to pretend to take COVID seriously for a few days, but his return to pseudo-science, the death of Herman Cain, the Q2 economic figures, the call to postpone the election, and his spineless call with Putin will likely pull him back down again.

It’s probably just noise but If he keeps creeping up, we know why people like him. At least it is the case that people don't support him because they think he can or does "a good job".

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's probably a little mean reversion occurring in both the IBD and Gallup polls.  Prior to a couple months ago they had both been pretty good for Trump, but cratered since then.  What he gained in them this month is just a small fraction of what he previously lost.

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota: PPP, July 22-23, 1218 RV

Biden 52
Trump 42

Senate: Smith 48, Lewis 39

Trump approval: 41/54

Over 50 for Biden and a 10% margin. 2008 practically repeated. All in all I see a rerun of the Obama landslide in New England, the Middle-Atlantic states, the Great Lakes region, and the Far West, but Trump doing not so well in the Sunbelt as McCain did.


New Hampshire, U-New Hampshire.

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1599&context=survey_center_polls

Favorability, but at this stage it is hard to imagine favorability differing much from approval. Trump 38 favorable, 59 unfavorable in New Hampshire. Biden 53-40 over Trump. Even with Trump getting 5% of the 7% undecided, Biden wins this state by 10%, which no Democrat has done in a Presidential election since LBJ in 1964.

This does not change the electoral map.

Pennsylvania: Franklin and Marshall College.  

Biden     50
Trump    41

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/90560429767618014-f-m-poll-release-july-2020.pdf

favorable 42
unfavorable 56

Awful. Again, it does not change the map.

[roxas11]

Gallup, July 1-23, 1007 adults (1-month change)

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-1)

ultimately it simply does not matter if trump approval stays in the 30s or goes back to the mid 40s


The reality is being in the low or mid 40s is not going to cut it for him and no modern president with an approval Below 50 percent has ever gone on to win. He needs to be doing a lot better especially since unlike Hillary Biden is over 50 in many polls

remember At this same point Both Bush and Obama were already in the high 40s and there approval ratings was at or over 50 by election day

Come November If trump approval is below 50 on election day...... its game over and Biden is our next president