Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[woodley park]

North Carolina:

No approval (or even favorable) numbers on Trump,  but they can't be good. In a sample that voted 47-44 for Trump over Clinton (which is about how the vote split in 2016), Biden is up 50-46.

Incumbent Senator T-t-t-tom Tillis  (whoops ... he's not the late Mel Tillis) is in t-t-t-t-trouble at 47-39 with the challenger in the lead.

Is his name pronounced just like regular Tom? Or the same way we pronounce the "th" in the? 'Th'om Tillis sounds right; he's been such an incompetent, spineless dope so it suits him perfectly.

[woodley park]

Apologies for the double post:

Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of coronavirus: poll

In the poll, 67 percent of respondents said that they disapproved of how the president has handled the pandemic, which was killed more than 130,000 people in the country, while 33 percent said that they approved of Trump's performance.

It's the highest level of dissatisfaction with the president's response to COVID-19 since the pandemic began.

The eight percent drop in Trump's approval rating can in part be attributed to his falling stock among independent voters. In the mid-June poll, the president's approval rating among independents was 40 percent; now it's at 29 percent. Conversely, his disapproval among the pivotal voting bloc went from 59 percent to 73 percent.

End times.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/506718-two-thirds-of-americans-disapprove-of-trumps-handling-of-coronavirus

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1281626921844068354

[Progressive Pessimist]

North Carolina:

No approval (or even favorable) numbers on Trump,  but they can't be good. In a sample that voted 47-44 for Trump over Clinton (which is about how the vote split in 2016), Biden is up 50-46.

Incumbent Senator T-t-t-tom Tillis  (whoops ... he's not the late Mel Tillis) is in t-t-t-t-trouble at 47-39 with the challenger in the lead.

Is his name pronounced just like regular Tom? Or the same way we pronounce the "th" in the? 'Th'om Tillis sounds right; he's been such an incompetent, spineless dope so it suits him perfectly.

Yeah, it's pronounced the same as "Tom" but just like him being a Senator that "h" is completely unnecessary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I see Trump Toupe has been mute since Trump is getting blanched

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

UT-Tyler: Trump at 44-50 in Texas for general approval. 41-51 on COVID. Sample has Biden +5

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well today's polls show a slippage of Biden support back to 278, FL isnt 6 points in favor of Biden if AZ is tied, and Kelly is only 4 points ahead of McSally

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

UT-Tyler: Trump at 44-50 in Texas for general approval. 41-51 on COVID. Sample has Biden +5

There are third party candidates running and take votes away from Bissau

[pbrower2a]

Ignoring the faithless electors, Democrats got 232 electoral votes for President. No state that Trump lost is really in reach of him this time.

H. Clinton + MI + FL  is 277.

H. Clinton + PA + FL is  281.

The alligators are hungry.

H. Clinton + TX is 270.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds win 279 with MI, PA and WI

[VAR]

RMG Research/Scott Rasmussen
July 9-11
1200 RV

Approve 44 (+5)
Disapprove 53 (-5)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

https://scottrasmussen.com/president-trump-job-approval-up-to-44/

[BudgieForce]

RMG Research/Scott Rasmussen
July 9-11
1200 RV

Approve 44 (+5)
Disapprove 53 (-5)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

https://scottrasmussen.com/president-trump-job-approval-up-to-44/

I dislike when pollsters try and find reasoning behind why their weekly poll had a huge swing. Sometimes weekly polls are just noisy, it doesn't have to be a "response to the media criticism of the president".

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Where are the Rs, in this thread, Zogby just put a poll up showing Trump down by 7.

Since June after the riots started, they have vanished

[wbrocks67]

RMG Research/Scott Rasmussen
July 9-11
1200 RV

Approve 44 (+5)
Disapprove 53 (-5)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

https://scottrasmussen.com/president-trump-job-approval-up-to-44/

I dislike when pollsters try and find reasoning behind why their weekly poll had a huge swing. Sometimes weekly polls are just noisy, it doesn't have to be a "response to the media criticism of the president".

Well, Scott Rasmussen seems hack-ish so it doesn't surprise me.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

RMG Research/Scott Rasmussen
July 9-11
1200 RV

Approve 44 (+5)
Disapprove 53 (-5)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

https://scottrasmussen.com/president-trump-job-approval-up-to-44/

I dislike when pollsters try and find reasoning behind why their weekly poll had a huge swing. Sometimes weekly polls are just noisy, it doesn't have to be a "response to the media criticism of the president".

He did note that it's likely due to statistical noise in the second paragraph.

[pbrower2a]

A state that rarely gets polled:

Alaska: PPP, July 7-8, 1081 RV

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Trump 48, Biden 45

Senate: Sullivan 39, Gross 34

House: Galvin 43, Young 41

Alaska is a tough state to poll (How do you say "Press '4' for Inuit" in Inuit?....

Evidence of a Trump collapse.

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I have been slow to give Joe Biden any edge in Texas, but I do now. COVID-19 has spiked in Texas, transforming at the least Houston and San Antonio into medical equivalents of slaughterhouses.  State parties can collapse over the inability to meet challenges to their credibility. Maybe they were getting away with things that suddenly prove catastrophic. Maybe they were getting away with low taxes and poor public services because they could rely upon unions for high wages for people who need little formal education and don't get around much (the Democratic Party of West Virginia).

At this stage President Trump must stop the free-fall of his credibility just to prevent an epic defeat that comes with his complete discreditation. Maybe you are thinking of the elder Bush, but that looks like partisan fatigue with three terms of the same Party in the Presidency. Trump looks to be in the eight year of a Presidency of which Americans are tiring. It only seems like twenty.   

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock is leading MT, it's over for Trump, Larry Hogan said he wont vote for Trump and may vote for Biden. Hogan didnt even vote for Trump in 2016. John Sununu said he isnt going to the Convention. Phil Scott is no fan of Trump. All 3 moderate Rs have come out against Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Montana: PPP, July 9-10, 1224 RV

Approve 51
Disapprove 46

Trump 51, Biden 42

Bullock 46, Daines 44

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov poll for Missouri-

Approve: 50% (+2)
Disapprove: 48%

https://www.slu.edu/research/research-institute/big-ideas/slu-poll/june-2020-poll/trump-biden.php

[woodley park]

From The Hill:

Poll finds Trump with lead in Missouri, but numbers are slipping

What an utterly disastrous headline. Imagine it is July 2012 and the Obama campaign is trying to be comforted by a narrowing lead in Maine.

[pbrower2a]

YouGov poll for Missouri-

Approve: 50% (+2)
Disapprove: 48%

https://www.slu.edu/research/research-institute/big-ideas/slu-poll/june-2020-poll/trump-biden.php

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Alaska, Missouri, and Montana:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30

 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Alaska, Missouri, and Montana:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30

IMO your odds are far too Biden-friendly.  It's simply not realistic to think that Biden is more likely to win Arizona than Trump is to win Montana, or that Biden is more likely to win Georgia than Trump is to win Alaska, for example.

[pbrower2a]

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Alaska, Missouri, and Montana:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30

IMO your odds are far too Biden-friendly.  It's simply not realistic to think that Biden is more likely to win Arizona than Trump is to win Montana, or that Biden is more likely to win Georgia than Trump is to win Alaska, for example.

I rely heavily upon approval polls... and I am beginning to see a Trump collapse.

Taegan Goddard has been slow to move states from Trump to toss-up or from toss-up to Biden.... but he just assigned toss-up status to Texas.

Collapses happen fast. Republicans have owned Texas politics for about twenty years, and now they have full nominal control of the state just as everything goes wrong. Just think of how things went in West Virginia, which used to be a solid Democratic state when the governing was easy (low taxes and few public services... all that a Democrat needed to do in West Virginia to get elected or re-elected was to get the support of the United Mine Workers. Schools and roads were bad, but miners got good medical care through the UMW's insurance. Coal mining weakened as a source of income, and the UMW lost membership. Caught with bad roads, bad schools, and bad public health, the West Virginia Democratic Party was in deep trouble because West Virginia had become a terrible place to live.

COVID-19 kills. The Republican Party in Texas was clueless, and worse, tied to an ideology that gave all the wrong answers. 

I don't have an algorithm, but at this point I would give  suggest one :

a possible 50 points for a match-up  based on a Biden edge (negative for a Trump edge)

+8 or higher 50-0 D
+7  45-5 D   
+5 or 6 40-10 D
+4 35-15 D
+2 or 3 30-20 D
+1 or tie 25-25 D
-1 or -2  20-30 D
-3 or -4  10-40 D
-5 or higher 0-50 D

Note that I have no symmetry around zero.  Trump gets a bigger advantage for an edge at any level.

Approval rating, which counts for 20 points

Trump approval rating 40%  or lower 20-0 D
Trump approval rating 41-44  15-5 D
Trump approval rating 45-47 and negative 12-8 D
tie at any level 10-10 D
Trump approval rating 45-49 and positive 5-15 D
Trump approval rating 50% or higher 0-20 D

10 points for the 2018 House election

(I see that highly relevant to 2020)

key ones -- Florida is tied, Arizona is 6-4, Iowa is 7-3... I will get back to you on the others. 

15 points for the state's history in voting for the President since 2000

15-0 D all times D
10-5 D 4 D, 1 R
8-7 D  3 D, 2 R
5-10 D  2 D, 3 R
3-12 D  1 D, 4 R
0-15 D all times R

5 for the 2016 vote (Trump is still running, and he is basically the same person)

5-0 D Trump lost by 8% or more
4-1 D Trump lost by 3% to 7%
3-2 D Trump lost by less than 3%
2-3 D Trump won by less than 2%
1-4 D Trump won by 2% to 5%
0-5 D Trump won by more than 5%

As one gets closer to the Presidential election, the previous result is at best a back-up to current reality.  State (and district)  histories tell something, most likely whether the state culture has been sympathetic to a certain political line.  By now the 2016 election is less relevant than how the states voted in previous elections.

Were it not for the match-up polls and approval ratings I would consider any suggestion that Texas is a swing state a joke. Trump gets 20 points there just for 2016 and the state's electoral history in the last five Presidential elections.  But now we have the match-up polls and approval ratings in Texas, and they look horrid for Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is finished multiple polls have showed that he cant come back, he is done

[wbrocks67]

YouGov poll for Missouri-

Approve: 50% (+2)
Disapprove: 48%

https://www.slu.edu/research/research-institute/big-ideas/slu-poll/june-2020-poll/trump-biden.php

When you're nearly negative approval in *Missouri*, a Trump +19 state...