Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Sir Mohamed]

Don't know if this was posted, but Trump approval is up to 57-38 in Utah.

UT will for sure be state that most sharply shifts GOP in the 2020 election.

[Sir Mohamed]

As we approach the election Trump's approval is going to creep closer and closer to what his share of the popular vote is going to be - something that pretty much always happens.

If we apply this standards and look at the Obama presidency, Mr. Trump's #s would collapse months into a 2nd term if reelected. Obama's lowpoint was late 2013 if I remember correctly. By late 2021, we might actually slip into a recession.

[Sir Mohamed]

For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction...

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1241021788831862791

So much for rally-around-the flag effect.

[Sir Mohamed]

Most polling has suggested that it's Democrats that have seen the largest increase in approval for Trump, which means it's not too difficult to imagine that number going back down to where it has been.

... or that they will vote for him. Some GOPers might also approve their Dem gov on the pandemic, but wouldn't vote for him.

[Sir Mohamed]

Civiqs tracking poll - 5/19

Trump overall job approval: 42/55 (-13)

Arizona: 43/55 (-12)
Colorado: 38/59 (-21)
Florida: 47/51 (-4)
Georgia 45/51 (-6)
Iowa: 47/49 (-2)
Maine: 37/60 (-23)
Michigan: 42/54 (-12)
Minnesota: 42/55 (-13)
Montana: 50/47 (+3)
Nevada: 39/58 (-19)
New Hampshire: 41/54 (-13)
New Mexico: 47/50 (-3)
North Carolina: 45/52 (-7)
Ohio: 49/48 (+1)
Pennsylvania: 44/52 (-8)
South Carolina: 50/46 (+4)
Texas: 50/47 (+3)
Virginia: 39/58 (-19)
Wisconsin: 45/52 (-7)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

He only has a -3 approval in New Mexico? 

Yup, the other #s make sense, but no way Trump is at only -3 in NM, let alone at 47% approval. Either a mistake / typo at their webseite or just a rather extreme outlier.

[Sir Mohamed]

Morning Consult out with a new low.

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1270225625438183424?s=21

We're back to 2nd half 2017 levels, where Mr. Trump had one of his worst showings throughout his tenure.

[Sir Mohamed]

Pennsylvania: Gravis, July 22-24, 1006 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Strongly approve 35
Strongly disapprove 44

Biden 48, Trump 45

The danger for Trump may lie in among the undecided voters (8% in this poll) who indicate that they disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President by a 29%-69% margin.  The undecided voters also approve of the Job performance of the two polled statewide elected Democrats Wolf and Casey by a 67%-19% and 56%-22% margin, respectively.

Gravis being Gravis again. Seems way too close, but at least confirms patterns Trump gets less votes than his approvals. You may expect the see the opposite on election day.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden only plus 6 in Rassy polls, not the huge 500 EC victory that is consistently projected. I knew it, Biden is still favored but this is gonna come down to WI, PA. We were always in RV land, now we are going to LV

The Dems should have nominated Bernie, whom wasnt scandaled, if the election is close.

Pelosi holding up stimulus bill is not the smart thing to do, and unemployment isnt gonna be extended past a yr either

Who projected 500 EVs? LOL.

[Sir Mohamed]

What does he need for re-election, 46%?

It more depends on the margin of victory, not the vote share itsself. With Trump at 46.1% in 2016, HRC would have won with fewer 3rd party votes. If she got 50.2% rather than 48.2%, that would have given her the victory. Trump was short of an actual majority in the 3 key states and in FL. Remember Romney got 47.2% in 2012, which is a higher vote share than Trump with 46.1%.

I think Biden needs a margin of 3+ pts to make sure he has collected 270 or more EVs. If he's winning by 5 pts, it really doesn't matter much whether it's a 48-43% or 51-46% NPV advantage. Given that 3rd party vote share is expected to drop from 2016, 46% won't be enough for Mr. Trump to pull it off. I'd assume he needs at least 47.5% to stand a chance in the EC. If he ends up with less than 46%, he's toast.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's absolutely beyond my comprehension how around 43% of the electorate can still approve of this moron, after he completely ignored the biggest health crisis in 100+ years, with an economy in shatters and the daily madness and the corruption coming out of this WH. He's most likely going to lose in November anyway, but it's completely ridiculous that many people still approve him. His approvals should be at least in W 2008 territory. At least.

[Sir Mohamed]

Rasmussen REALLY cooking the books for Trump this week

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1301877595546554370

Trump Tweet incoming: * THANK YOU, Rassmussen, WORKING HARD! *

[Sir Mohamed]

Civiqs - thru 9/2

National: 41/56 (-15)

Alaska: 43/55 (-12)
Arizona: 43/53 (-10)
Colorado: 38/59 (-22)
Florida: 45/53 (-8)
Georgia: 44/53 (-9)
Iowa: 46/52 (-6)
Kansas: 52/45 (+7)
Maine: 37/60 (-23)
Michigan: 41/56 (-15)
Minnesota: 39/58 (-19)
Montana: 47/50 (-3)
Nevada: 36/60 (-24)
New Hampshire: 37/58 (-21)
New Mexico: 43/54 (-11)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Pennsylvania: 42/55 (-13)
South Carolina: 50/48 (+2)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 38/59 (-21)
Wisconsin: 43/54 (-11)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Looks reasonable except for AK. If he's underwater by 12, which is similar to PA, WI and NM, you'd expect a much closer race. We've had some polls that showed Trump just barely ahead here, but I'm not convinced it will flip in the end.

[Sir Mohamed]

This approval rating knocks pbower map of 413 EC votes that he keeps up out of consideration. As I keep saying Cook has already stated it's a 291-47 EC map and a 51/49 Senate seat majority

That poll is a clear outlier.

Today's polls ABC poll shows Trump tied in AZ and leads in FL.  As I stated before Cook that does the PVI of every state has it 291-47 EC map and a 51-50 Senate with GA as the runoff seats. Ds will get 1 if Trump loses

278 freiwall 291 FREIWALL 😎