Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Non Swing Voter]

The blue avatars saying Terry isn't running a good campaign / Youngkin is fundamentally have no idea what Virginia voters want to hear as far as messaging.  I'm sure Youngkin's message appeals to an Iowa, Montana, or Florida electorate.  It doesn't work in Virginia.  Unfortunately, he's not running in Iowa.

Then why is the race so close?

According to what? What votes have been counted?

I'm sure he means that the polling indicates a close race, which is certainly true.

There are some people on the right who seem to think that Youngkin is the favorite and has this all but wrapped up.  This is objectively not the case.  Youngkin has made it closer than it was earlier in the campaign -- and it's close enough that he's within striking distance -- but every indication is that he is still behind.

However, there are some people on the left who think that McAuliffe is so far ahead that there's no way he can lose.  This is at least as wrong as the first position is.  Virginia has obviously moved to the left, and it's no longer as swingy as, say, Pennsylvania -- but some of you seem to think that it's become Maryland.

And frankly, the second group has become more annoying than the first one.  Have you learned nothing from the last few years about overconfidence?

This is a straw man.  He doesn't need to be "so far ahead" to guarantee winning.  He cannot lose because Youngkin doesn't have the votes, period.  Just like Recall - Yes didn't have the votes to make it a 5-10 point race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to what? What votes have been counted?

LOL, exactly. 

He cannot lose because Youngkin doesn't have the votes, period. 

Pick one.

[SnowLabrador]

The only way Youngkin wins is if turnout is low enough among Democrats. Fortunately for him, that might well happen.

[Non Swing Voter]

According to what? What votes have been counted?

LOL, exactly. 

He cannot lose because Youngkin doesn't have the votes, period. 

Pick one.

LMAO, good one...  I pick both.  There aren't enough Republican votes in VA for Youngkin to win and no votes have been counted so the ridiculous takes that Youngkin is doing well and is going to defy demographics are absurd. 

[Non Swing Voter]

The only way Youngkin wins is if turnout is low enough among Democrats. Fortunately for him, that might well happen.

Turnout (Voted by mail, ballot app, early vote)

10th district (Dem) = 88,533
9th district (GOP) = 45,798

[jamestroll]

I textbanked on Friday,  I canvassed in person today and will canvas in person tomorrow!

I am doing my part to defeat Trumpism once and for all!

[LtNOWIS]

The only way Youngkin wins is if turnout is low enough among Democrats. Fortunately for him, that might well happen.

Turnout (Voted by mail, ballot app, early vote)

10th district (Dem) = 88,533
9th district (GOP) = 45,798

Well yeah it looks great for the Dems when you compare a hugely overpopulated, growing district, with an underpopulated, shrinking district. You could also look at turnout like this:

3rd district (Dem) = 55,933
1st district (GOP) = 81,743

[lfromnj]

The only way Youngkin wins is if turnout is low enough among Democrats. Fortunately for him, that might well happen.

Turnout (Voted by mail, ballot app, early vote)

10th district (Dem) = 88,533
9th district (GOP) = 45,798

Well yeah it looks great for the Dems when you compare a hugely overpopulated, growing district, with an underpopulated, shrinking district. You could also look at turnout like this:

3rd district (Dem) = 55,933
1st district (GOP) = 81,743

I mean the 3rd is still pretty Safe Dem while the 1st isn't netting that many votes for the GOP anymore(maybe if they are close statewide it will)

[Devils30]

The only way Youngkin wins is if turnout is low enough among Democrats. Fortunately for him, that might well happen.

Turnout (Voted by mail, ballot app, early vote)

10th district (Dem) = 88,533
9th district (GOP) = 45,798

Well yeah it looks great for the Dems when you compare a hugely overpopulated, growing district, with an underpopulated, shrinking district. You could also look at turnout like this:

3rd district (Dem) = 55,933
1st district (GOP) = 81,743

And how much of the 1st is from now overpopulated Prince William? I would be careful looking at early vote numbers because VA's history is very short for non-election day voting. Some 2020 mail voters have traditionally voted E-day and appear to be returning to it.

[Non Swing Voter]

The only way Youngkin wins is if turnout is low enough among Democrats. Fortunately for him, that might well happen.

Turnout (Voted by mail, ballot app, early vote)

10th district (Dem) = 88,533
9th district (GOP) = 45,798

Well yeah it looks great for the Dems when you compare a hugely overpopulated, growing district, with an underpopulated, shrinking district. You could also look at turnout like this:

3rd district (Dem) = 55,933
1st district (GOP) = 81,743

*Complains that 10th district is overpopulated*

*Points to 1st district which is also overpopulated*

Dem turnout is higher right now than GOP turnout.  Every single analysis has shown this.

[Non Swing Voter]

The blue avatars said Youngkin is running an amazing campaign.

If Youngkin loses by the typical VA margin what will the spin be?  You've said he's run a great campaign.  Or will they just ignore the results kind of like they did right after the CA embarrassment?

[Non Swing Voter]

Key precincts to watch will be the area of Fairfax that on the map is labeled McLean, Upper Potomac, Vienna, and particularly the area where these three areas (though much of it is usually called Drainesville) merge.  The inner ring of Fairfax, including parts of McLean is going to go overwhelmingly Dem, as will city areas like Reston.  The margin in that vast suburban area where McLean/Upper Potomac (Great Falls)/Vienna merge is going to be where the Fairfax margin is decided.  If Republicans win this area then Fairfax will probably go Dem by close to 30 points.  If Dems win this area then Fairfax probably goes Dem by close to 40 points. 

You also want to look at turnout in the core DC areas (Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church City as well as greater Falls Church).  Dems want to juice turnout here obviously. 

[Sir Mohamed]

The blue avatars said Youngkin is running an amazing campaign.

If Youngkin loses by the typical VA margin what will the spin be?  You've said he's run a great campaign.  Or will they just ignore the results kind of like they did right after the CA embarrassment?

They will say that VA has been a blue state for at least a few years and therefore it didn't matter what campaign he ran as he was always doomed due to polarization no matter what. Or that TMac just had too high name rec.

[Non Swing Voter]

The blue avatars said Youngkin is running an amazing campaign.

If Youngkin loses by the typical VA margin what will the spin be?  You've said he's run a great campaign.  Or will they just ignore the results kind of like they did right after the CA embarrassment?

They will say that VA has been a blue state for at least a few years and therefore it didn't matter what campaign he ran as he was always doomed due to polarization no matter what. Or that TMac just had too high name rec.

Exactly!  They have no shame.

[MT Treasurer]

For the record, many (read: far from all) blue avatars have said that Youngkin is running a good campaign and that he faces an uphill battle due to the state being very blue. These propositions aren’t mutually exclusive and this argument...

They will say that VA has been a blue state for at least a few years and therefore it didn't matter what campaign he ran as he was always doomed due to polarization partisanship no matter what.

...shouldn’t be mocked because it’s fundamentally true.

[wbrocks67]

Depends on what metrics you're using to grade Youngkin's campaign though. Has he successfully threaded a needle between Trumpism and "moderate" GOP? maybe a bit. But he's also been using the same exact tactics that led to Gillespie's defeat in 2017 - cultural war issues that are hyped up by the political press but don't end up mattering much to kitchen table issue voters.

[Blair]

I also frankly think that someone like Youngkin fits exactly in the model of other successful campaigners in blue states (of various degrees)

A businessman who has never held office & who can put loads of money into happy ads about 'creating jobs' is always going to do better than some random state rep

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yeah. I am wondering who these blue avatars, Non Swing Voter & Co keep ranting about, are. Are they just strawmen?

[Woody]

Yeah. I am wondering who these blue avatars, Non Swing Voter & Co keep ranting about, are. Are they just strawmen?

They are in his head. Literally every blue avatar who is posting here (including me) believe McAuliffe is winning.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah. I am wondering who these blue avatars, Non Swing Voter & Co keep ranting about, are. Are they just strawmen?

Strawmanning aside, it’s just incredibly lazy logic:

"The red avatars said Theresa Greenfield is running a good campaign.

If Greenfield loses by the typical IA margin what will the spin be?  You've said she's run a great campaign.  Or will they just ignore the results kind of like they did right after the [insert random special election in deeply Republican district] embarrassment?"

"The red avatars said Tommy Tuberville is running one of the laziest Senate campaigns ever.

If Jones loses by the typical AL margin what will the spin be?  You've said Tuberville's run a lazy campaign. Or will they just ignore the results kind of like they did right after the [insert random special election in deeply Republican district] embarrassment?"

"The blue avatars said John Hickenlooper is running one of the laziest Senate campaigns ever.

If Gardner loses by the typical CO margin what will the spin be?  You've said Hickenlooper's run a lazy campaign. Or will they just ignore the results kind of like they did right after the [insert random special election in deeply Democratic district] embarrassment?"

[LimoLiberal]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Even if Youngkin wins , it doesn’t mean that Virginia is suddenly a swing state again lol . People of different parties  get elected governor frequently in states more safe than Virginia lol.

[Matty]

Oh look, one of the candidates is engaging in a big lie

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tyler2ONeil/status/1452357493859004424

[Dan the Roman]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

TBH this is one of the more interesting anecdotal pieces of information. Asian voters strike me as a group where the test of global realignment versus campaign messaging will matter most. Looking at Canada and California, Asian voters, especially with degrees, seem to have moved strongly against parties perceived as weak on covid restrictions. Youngkin, for all his efforts to downplay it represents a party which cannot be described as anything other than "weak" on covid restrictions.

So if we have meta forces they should be trending left.

If they trend right, however, it indicates the Republican narrative that CRT/Education etc is resonating with them. That they dislike BLM activism and perceived Democratic weakness on the police.

It is also possible everyone on this thread is both right and wrong. There can be meta trends. But there can also be blips. Scott Brown winning was an ideological blip in MA. Not in a partisan sense, but in the sense that no one else seriously tried to put back together his coalition in MA. It                          was not replicable at all as opposed to merely not replicable successfully.

It is possible that the Gillespie coalition/campaign could win in a climate even if in the longrun it is not a viable coalition in VA

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Oh look, one of the candidates is engaging in a big lie

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tyler2ONeil/status/1452357493859004424

He didn’t say that he stuffed the ballots he’s literally pointing to actions Kemp did as Secretary of State (who is in charge of election issues) took actions that disenfranchised people. Which is what he did.